So, just for arguments sake. Let's look at a coach we know pretty well who happens to have a two year sample size, rebuilding a program with previous success (not on our level obviously)
Calipari took over Arkansas the same year Pope took over UK. Below is the Arkansas record 4 years prior to Cal taking over (starting after Covid, the start of NIL and portal movement seasons included)
Below is the UK record 4 years prior to Pope taking over (same time frame)
Players Cal took with him from UK's 23-24 roster for his "start" at Arkansas:
(Transfers from UK) DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero, Zovnimir Ivisic
(HS players recruited to UK who followed Cal to Arkansas) Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, Billy Richmond
Players UK took with him from BYU's 23-24 roster for his "start" at UK
(Transfers from BYU) Jaxson Robinson
(HS players recruited to BYU who followed Pope to UK) Collin Chandler
Same Portal, very similar NIL, one left the cupboard empty and took everyone with him, one inherited Travis Perry and an empty locker room mid April with half the portal already over.
2024-2025
Arkansas goes 22-14 (8-10 in the SEC), Tied for 9th in the SEC, wins 1 game in SEC tournament, Makes Sweet 16
Kentucky goes 24-12 (10-8 in the SEC), Tied for 6th in the SEC, wins 1 game in SEC tournament, Makes Sweet 16
Same, better, or worse seasons? Did someone overachieve? Did someone under-perform? Honestly, had Cal stayed at UK, would UK's record under Cal been better, worse, or exactly the same as Pope's that year? Genuinely curious.
Obviously in 2025-2026 Arkansas was better than UK (not dismissing it, just don't feel like typing it all out). The point is, that is the same time frame, in the same era, with very similar NIL bankrolls, but VASTLY different situations. You can't just take a timeframe and spit out win percentages. Coaches take over programs at completely unique points of transition. Mike Malone will be an excellent case study this season. As will watching Michigan coming off a National Title and losing their coach to the NBA. This is also in no way an endorsement of Mark Pope as being a great coach, stud recruiter, or Jesus reborn. Nor is it a knock on Cal, a praise of Cal, or crying to hire Billy D or Nate Oats or some random hot new name.
Rebuilding "usually" takes time, luck, or a CRAPTON of money. And in most cases, a little luck, a ton of money, and some time STILL doesn't work. Ask UCLA and Indiana how their rebuilds are going.