You love to see it.
We began with Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, because on Monday morning, Politico was first to publish a poll conducted after the primary election, which found Democrat Josh Turek with a slight lead over Republican Ashley Hinson, 47 percent to 45 percent. A Democratic-aligned firm, Global Strategy Group, conducted the survey and produced this polling memo.
Global Strategy Group found that President Donald Trump’s favorability is underwater (45 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable) among likely Iowa voters, even though the sample included more Republicans than Democrats. By voter registration, 42 percent of respondents were Republicans and 32 percent Democrats. 50 percent said they voted for Trump in 2024, just 41 percent voted for Harris. Among independents surveyed, Trump’s favorability was -28.
Arguably Turek has more room to grow, because only 61 percent of respondents were familiar with him, while 76 percent were familiar with Hinson. According to the polling memo, Turek leads by 62 percent to 36 percent among voters who were familiar with both candidates.
One bright spot for Hinson: Global Strategy Group found a slight lead for Republicans on the generic ballot for the Senate race (47 percent to 45 percent). That suggests she has an opportunity to win over voters who are already GOP-leaning.
Of course she will also want to drive down Turek’s favorables, which is why her campaign and GOP groups began running attack ads immediately after the primary.
National observers agree Iowa’s Senate race is competitive—a big change from 2022, when outside groups took almost no interest in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race until the last few weeks of the campaign. However, our state is considered a second-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats—not a top prospect like Maine or North Carolina.
laurabelin.substack.com
Turek leads Hinson in new poll
We began with Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, because on Monday morning, Politico was first to publish a poll conducted after the primary election, which found Democrat Josh Turek with a slight lead over Republican Ashley Hinson, 47 percent to 45 percent. A Democratic-aligned firm, Global Strategy Group, conducted the survey and produced this polling memo.Global Strategy Group found that President Donald Trump’s favorability is underwater (45 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable) among likely Iowa voters, even though the sample included more Republicans than Democrats. By voter registration, 42 percent of respondents were Republicans and 32 percent Democrats. 50 percent said they voted for Trump in 2024, just 41 percent voted for Harris. Among independents surveyed, Trump’s favorability was -28.
Arguably Turek has more room to grow, because only 61 percent of respondents were familiar with him, while 76 percent were familiar with Hinson. According to the polling memo, Turek leads by 62 percent to 36 percent among voters who were familiar with both candidates.
One bright spot for Hinson: Global Strategy Group found a slight lead for Republicans on the generic ballot for the Senate race (47 percent to 45 percent). That suggests she has an opportunity to win over voters who are already GOP-leaning.
Of course she will also want to drive down Turek’s favorables, which is why her campaign and GOP groups began running attack ads immediately after the primary.
National observers agree Iowa’s Senate race is competitive—a big change from 2022, when outside groups took almost no interest in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race until the last few weeks of the campaign. However, our state is considered a second-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats—not a top prospect like Maine or North Carolina.
Senate poll, governor's race, abortion in the 2026 campaigns
June 22 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"
laurabelin.substack.com
Climbed a mountain and I turned around
