You have a rather strict standard for identifying "big games." If that is your opinion, you are certainly entitled to it.
However, it does put the new coach in a bit of a bind. If winning a Rose, Fiesta, Cotton Bowl and playoff games are not "big wins," then by definition PSU doesn't have a potential for a "big" win on the 2026 schedule. Neither Washington or USC have proven to be top echelon Big Ten programs and Michigan has been quite pedestrian since the Harbaugh/Stalions era. To win a big game, the new coaching staff (by your definition) must reach the playoffs and beat two teams in the 2026 standings higher than Boise and SMU (were in 2024). I agree.
As for contract extension, I agree, can you imagine any coach, who didn't win the NC or at least his conference, getting an extension. Disgusting!
Penn State search helps coaches secure $370 million in contract extensions