People keep talking about a 32-team Super League and imagining some dramatic breakaway. I think theyāre missing the most likely scenario.
The SEC and Big Ten may never formally leave the NCAA. They may not have to.
Instead, I believe the most likely outcome is the creation of a new subdivision above the current FBS. Call it Division I Premier, Division I Power, or whatever name they choose. The top 48 brands would compete for their own national championship under their own governance and financial rules.
Immediately people yell, āAntitrust!ā or āMonopoly!
I donāt see it.
The precedent already exists.
Division I, II, and III exist. FBS and FCS exist. Schools operate under different scholarship limits, different financial structures, and separate championships. Nobody seriously argues that the FBS playoff constitutes an illegal monopoly against Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, or hundreds of Division II and Division III programs.
The legal principle that different competitive levels may exist has been accepted for decades.
The SEC and Big Ten would not be preventing anyone from playing football. They would not be dissolving the NCAA. They would simply be saying:
āWe are creating a new subdivision with different rules and our own championship.ā
That is fundamentally different from excluding schools from college football.
In fact, schools in the new subdivision could still schedule games against lower divisions, just as FBS schools currently play FCS opponents. The schools outside the Premier Division would continue to have their own championships and governance.
People also forget that the College Football Playoff itself is not an NCAA championship. The highest level of college football has already been operating under a separate system for years. A Premier Division would merely formalize what economic reality has already produced.
And history tells us something else.
The SEC and Big Ten have repeatedly demonstrated that they want more autonomy, more revenue, and more control. More often than not, they eventually get it.
Politically and legally, it is far easier to say,
āWe are moving up to a new division,ā
than it is to say,
āEveryone else is out.ā
A 48-team Premier Division seems much more realistic to me than a clean breakaway Super League. It follows established precedent, minimizes legal exposure, preserves the NCAA structure, and acknowledges the simple reality that the wealthiest programs increasingly inhabit a world that is fundamentally different from the rest of college football.
People may not like that reality. But disliking it does not make it any less likely.