OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

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Glad i added to my IBM while it was down recently.
Stock was dead man walking for 7 years prior to Krishna taking over in 2020. Up more then a double since, plus a heavy Div, which even with this strong run is 3%.

Another of the old time tech which have adapted to this new era. CSCO, IBM, INTC, all very strong. Probably throw ORCL on there as well, though it's been more volatile of late.
 
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RU05

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I will say though that the long term chart of IBM suggests a big digestion period is upcoming.

ORCL in danger of a head and shoulders. Be wary of this one under $200.
 
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RU05

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Market has found it's footing today.

After a big day yesterday, it has fought off early day selling.
 
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RUAldo

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I own some CEPT and believe in the Securitze story. If institutions are going to tokenize assets, they will need a company like this as a partner!
Securitization just makes practical sense. If you own, for example, a RV park it’s a massive lift to buy /sell an interest in it if you ever looked into those RV park investment ads. The securitization process is unbelievable simple. You could
How does it work? Who makes the decisions? Do you get voting rights?
the legal/compliance framework will be challenging for anything that’s not a mainstream asset which is probably why stocks, real estate, and financial instruments are in focus. Much easier to tokenize a real estate venture that’s buttoned up in a special purpose vehicle (SPV). Whereas, if Joe Smith decides to tokenize the house he lives in you can imagine the mess that could create.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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INTU down big on a miss due to Turbotax slowing, fueling fears AI is eating into it's business.

Other software plays being dragged down as well.
We use TurboTax, but that is definitely a software program than could be disrupted. Most households have pretty simple returns.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Tom Lee/Fundstrat. Thoughts on the new Fed Chair:

Incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be sworn in on Friday. This will end a week where we view the equity market having survived a meaningful test — namely, oil surging to near highs and US bond yields at multi-year highs:
  • Kevin Warsh was nominated and confirmed within the timeline of the most recent Fed Chairs, around 70 days. In other words, Congress and the White House agreed upon his chairmanship and there was not any required horse trading, nor multiple candidates proposed before Warsh was picked.
  • As he takes on this role, Kevin Warsh, in our view, will have these 5 challenges ahead:
    1. Oil vs AI: which matters more to structural inflation?
    2. Future Fed guidance: Warsh prefers to eliminate guidance.
    3. Fed vs Hawkish markets: Warsh sees less structural inflation vs markets.
    4. Fed vs “Dovish” White House: Managing a key relationship as White House prefers more cuts.
    5. Stock market is the economy: Wealth effect.
  • Regarding Oil vs AI, the question is which of these forces becomes dominant and therefore is where Fed focuses its policy tools:
    – High oil today has the effect of pushing up inflation, which means possible future hikes
    – The April FOMC minutes show the Fed would consider hikes if inflation persists >2%
    – AI, while maybe short-term inflationary (due to energy and chips) is arguably deflationary given its impact on employment and even the future wages of workers
    – thus, AI would give the Fed a dovish bias
    – timing is key and which of these forces becomes the primary narrative is key
  • Warsh stated in his Senate hearings that he believes the FOMC should eliminate guidance and thus enabling the Fed to have all available information before making a policy decision. This vacuum of information will likely cause markets to rely on proxy measures, including prediction markets and bond market (Fed futures). While this will help the Fed to understand where “the market” stands, this also could put the Fed in conflict with market positioning. This will be an important challenge over the next few years.
  • There is not a lot that needs to be said around the Fed and White House. This will be an important channel for Warsh to navigate. We will have to see how this dynamic works.
  • And finally, regarding equities. Prior Fed Chairs have publicly stated that they do not pay attention to equity markets and levels. But the stock market has proven to be a leading indicator for the economy and exerts a lot of influence on the business cycle, business confidence, consumer confidence and even the liquidity of the bond market. And the White House cares about the equity markets as well. So we will see how Warsh communicates and interacts with the equity markets.
 
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RU-05

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I didn’t realize the run Dell is on. I looked not to long ago and it was $130. Up to $290 today.
 

RU-05

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All the quantum stocks except for XNDU are up significantly.
XNDU definitely the laggard but still doing OK

Gemini told me IONQ has the most current revs at around $100m. Didn’t want to buy yesterday as it was up big but it popped again today.
 

rurahrah000

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XNDU definitely the laggard but still doing OK

Gemini told me IONQ has the most current revs at around $100m. Didn’t want to buy yesterday as it was up big but it popped again today.
INFQ may have the most to catch up to the others. I would not assess any of these companies based on their current revenue. This is all about 3-5 years from now.
 
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RU-05

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INFQ may have the most to catch up to the others. I would not assess any of these companies based on their current revenue. This is all about 3-5 years from now.
True. But current revs does give some indication of credibility. Which is important in such a young industry.

IONQ is also seeing monster growth expected.
 

rurahrah000

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True. But current revs does give some indication of credibility. Which is important in such a young industry.

IONQ is also seeing monster growth expected.
Revenues at the current moment is not likely to mean much. Most of this investment is based on the faith that these companies will develop a product that will make them tons of money in the future. Quantum computing is in its nascency and whether you have zero revenue or $100 million in revenue today is meaningless. The only thing revenue has done for IONQ is raise its current market cap which is why I feel that INFQ, etc have catching up to do. With this government cash infusion, the current market cap of these companies should be closer to $20 billion.
 
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T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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Revenues at the current moment is not likely to mean much. Most of this investment is based on the faith that these companies will develop a product that will make them tons of money in the future. Quantum computing is in its nascency and whether you have zero revenue or $100 million in revenue today is meaningless. The only thing revenue has done for IONQ is raise its current market cap which is why I feel that INFQ, etc have catching up to do. With this government cash infusion, the current market cap of these companies should be closer to $20 billion.
Makes sense. I will add INFQ to my super long-term basket. I bought the JOBY dip and got in below $8. I'm also taking swings with CARL and CEPT.
 
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MURF87

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Jan 19, 2008
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Makes sense. I will add INFQ to my super long-term basket. I bought the JOBY dip and got in until $8. I also taking swings with CARL and CEPT.
You all know I’m a fan of Joby. Have had it for some time. I pulled out some profits last year when it got up around $20. Bought into the recent dips below the $9 prices. Have even been selling some short term puts and I’ve got a LEAPS deep ITM for Jan 2028. I bought some INFQ for very long term hold. Thing about INFQ is that they have a product that is being used by a few customers. No cooling needed for their qbits.
 

rurahrah000

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Makes sense. I will add INFQ to my super long-term basket. I bought the JOBY dip and got in until $8. I also taking swings with CARL and CEPT.
I did buy a small amount of CARL CEPT is a SPAC and my experience with SPACs has been to not touch it until all the shares have been distributed. There is tremendous dilution that happens with SPACs when they start trading. SOFI was a victim of it for a long time.
 
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Rutgers Chris

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You all know I’m a fan of Joby. Have had it for some time. I pulled out some profits last year when it got up around $20. Bought into the recent dips below the $9 prices. Have even been selling some short term puts and I’ve got a LEAPS deep ITM for Jan 2028. I bought some INFQ for very long term hold. Thing about INFQ is that they have a product that is being used by a few customers. No cooling needed for their qbits.
Fun JOBY story. Met a neighborhood mom at a party who explained they were moving to Northern California for her husband’s job. I asked what he did and she said it was complicated, talked an about his past work at NASA, etc. From her explanation I said “wait, does he work for Joby?” She was shocked I knew the company, I told her I’ve heard a lot about it through stock chats. She said “good, I hope that means all the stock he gets paid in will be worth something.” I have a feeling they’ll be ok
 
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rurahrah000

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You all know I’m a fan of Joby. Have had it for some time. I pulled out some profits last year when it got up around $20. Bought into the recent dips below the $9 prices. Have even been selling some short term puts and I’ve got a LEAPS deep ITM for Jan 2028. I bought some INFQ for very long term hold. Thing about INFQ is that they have a product that is being used by a few customers. No cooling needed for their qbits.
With quantum, it is best to distribute money between as many companies as possible. I also have money in XNDU and HQ. It is really unclear as to which companies are going to make it.
 
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RUinPinehurst

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Aug 27, 2011
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Anyone ever subscribe to buy an IPO? How does that work?
Your broker's trading platform likely has an "IPO Center." Brokers may give priority to high-value clients. I've dealt with a couple IPOs quite a while ago. In both cases, my name was given to the IPO's Underwriter who contacted me directly.
 

RUAldo

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Anyone ever subscribe to buy an IPO? How does that work?
I’ve bought a bunch of IPOs. If your broker offers shares, you need to register your indication of interest. Then you get an email the night before the IPO to confirm pricing. You aren’t guaranteed to get the shares or a portion of your requested allocation. Then you have to hold them according to the terms or if you sell they may take you off future IPOs. Fidelity has a three strike rule before you get banned.
 

RUAldo

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I fumbled my quantum positions when they tanked not long ago. Will need to get back in at some point.

DXYZ is probably my next buy to play the SpaceX and future IPO momentum. Wish I found it a week ago because it made a big move already but it’s pre-IPO holdings are no joke.

JOBY and CEPT make up a huge portion of my spec investments. Also took a swing at AMBQ and OSS for niche chip plays.
 

RU05

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Breakdown:


Listening to this and some of the other recent pressure points podcast.

Munster, due to the capex growing, thinks we are earlier in the process then he had thought prior. Thinks we are in the 2nd inning. Says the AI brain is going to be much bigger then was anticipated.

TCAF was of similar opinion in terms of their still being a long runway ahead.
 
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RU05

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Revenues at the current moment is not likely to mean much. Most of this investment is based on the faith that these companies will develop a product that will make them tons of money in the future. Quantum computing is in its nascency and whether you have zero revenue or $100 million in revenue today is meaningless. The only thing revenue has done for IONQ is raise its current market cap which is why I feel that INFQ, etc have catching up to do. With this government cash infusion, the current market cap of these companies should be closer to $20 billion.
Having a product that customers are willing to buy now, does give some indication though.

I see INFQ reported rev's of $9.6 mil. Just a 14% increase yoy. Expecting full year to be $40 mil, so not much growth currently.


IONQ reported $64 mil. 700% increase yoy. Projected $270 mil for the full year. That is expected to more then double in the next 2 years. They definitely have a better foothold, and their business has momentum.

True that IONQ has a $23B market cap while INFQ is only $3.6b but at this point it seems warranted.

I'm certainly open to the idea of putting some dollars down on an upstart but is there a legit business catalyst here?
 

RU05

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Notes on ZM

$14x P/E

$31B market cap.

$7B in cash. Has already bought back $3.5B in stock. Set to buy back another $1.6. Although their is dilution via employee compensation.

Cash flow expected to remain strong. So either more buy backs upcoming, implementing a div, or perhaps acquiring another company.

Owns $1.27B on Anthropic based on a $380B valuation. Next round of funding likely pushes that valuation towards $1T.

Paid users of their own AI increased 184% yoy.

41% operating margins.

Overall growth is still very modest.

MS has it a neutral due to that lack of growth.
 
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RUAldo

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SpaceX IPO certainly repricing the smaller space stocks. ASTS up 50% in a week. As always, should have bought more
ASTS is another head scratcher. Drops to $60 a few weeks ago. Somewhere in that drop I sold for a small profit. Then the stock doubles. I’ve left a **** ton of gains on the table by trying to trade in and out of this market.

DXYZ has Anthropic and OpenAI in its pre-IPO investments. Popped nicely on SpaceX news. More room to run?
 

Rutgers Chris

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ASTS is another head scratcher. Drops to $60 a few weeks ago. Somewhere in that drop I sold for a small profit. Then the stock doubles. I’ve left a **** ton of gains on the table by trying to trade in and out of this market.

DXYZ has Anthropic and OpenAI in its pre-IPO investments. Popped nicely on SpaceX news. More room to run?
That drop was very artificial. They don’t provide quarterly guidance, so people just take their annual and prorate it quarterly. They “missed” this made up number and thus the stock dropped temporarily despite being relatively on target with major catalysts lined up.
 

RUAldo

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That drop was very artificial. They don’t provide quarterly guidance, so people just take their annual and prorate it quarterly. They “missed” this made up number and thus the stock dropped temporarily despite being relatively on target with major catalysts lined up.
Yeah I bit hook line and sinker on that “miss” news LOL.

Sort of like ARM. I sold most of my position when the stock moved sharply down on a DOJ antitrust probe. Then insiders started selling. I thought I was doing proper risk management only to see 30 minutes after I sold out the stock it goes on a 42%+ tear in 5 days.

I don’t ever remember seeing a market like this where if you aren’t in AI or tech your ROR is basically zilch
 
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RUAldo

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DXYZ taking a dump at the moment on what appears to be news of future placements/offering. Not exactly sure if this is knee-jerk market reaction or a problem