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Riveting

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Of course Iran knows more about its own nuclear program than outside intelligence agencies. That's true of virtually every country and every clandestine program on Earth.

The question isn't whether Iran has internal knowledge we don't...the question is whether that reality automatically justifies broad military escalation versus containment and everything I've already posted. Those are two completely different discussions.

And yes, 30+ years in the IC.
So your meme where a guy shakes his head 'no' means you were agreeing? Is that an IC trick?
 

Riveting

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I think you may be misunderstanding the point. The fact of the matter is that we've been hearing that Iran's been "15 minutes" away from getting a nuke since the early 2000s and yet here we are 20 years later and Iran's still ALMOST THERE on getting one (even though we OBLITERATED their nuclear program less than a year ago). Make of that what you will...

But what we SHOULD have learned about the MiddleEast doesn't even go back 20+ years, it goes back almost 70 years. We arranged the overthrow of the Iranian govenment in the 1950s and put the Shah in powers and kept him there with Billions and Billions in aid. 20 years later there was an uprising and the Shah and his armed forces folded like a cheap lawn chair and then we had a country that hates us to this day. In the early 2000s we invaded Afganistan, installed a government, and kept it there with billions and billions in aid. 20 something years later there was an uprising and the Afgah forces folded like a cheap lawn chair and then we had a country that hates us. At nearly the same time we invaded Iraq, installed a government, and have kept it in power with Billions and billions in aid. ISIS attacked and the Iraqi forces folded like a cheap lawn chair. If there hadn't been substantial US forces there, they'd have taken the country. Now there is considerable instability after the 2025 elections with Iran backed groups as well as tribal infighting causing massive problems. If there's a popular uprising, this government is going down too.

Are you seeing a pattern here? Even the US involvement in the 1st gulf war involved billions and billions in US aid and ended up with a return to the status quo. What's the end game with Iran? We've spent billions and billions bombing the crap out of them. There's little chance (I think) that we will invade and force a change of government, BUT if we don't, the same government is going to start rebuilding. Where's the freaking upside to for us here? Trump had it right when he was campaigning... we don't belong there. We are (or could be) self sufficent with oil.

THAT'S the lesson.
THAT's the lesson of conventional thinking that many conventional thinkers have drawn.

However, conventional thinking is not adequate in dealing with an apocalyptic Islamofascist regime whose slogan is Death to America - and who desire to achieve that slogan with a nuclear attack to fulfill their deranged religious beliefs.
 
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hopefultiger13

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THAT's the lesson of conventional thinking that many conventional thinkers have drawn.

However, conventional thinking is not adequate in dealing with an apocalyptic Islamofascist regime whose slogan is Death to America - and who desire to achieve that slogan with a nuclear attack to fulfill their deranged religious beliefs.
How many nukes do they have again? How many years have they been "about to have one"?
 
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1Clemson

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Anon1750875978

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There's an Instagram video floating around where some MAGA guy is bragging that his truck used to hold $70 worth of gas, now it holds $129 worth!

🤣
 

pjhawk

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From the same Studios that brought you, Iraq has WMD’s!, the Nayirah Testimony, and the USS Maddox Incident, comes Iran is two weeks away from having a Nuke!
They didn't even have an active nuclear weapons program.

They did have a nuclear program, but the idea that they were even a year or so away was ludicrous.
 

hawkeyetraveler

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They didn't even have an active nuclear weapons program.

They did have a nuclear program, but the idea that they were even a year or so away was ludicrous.
Why would the Vice President of the United States argue against military action behind the scenes (as has been reported many times) if they really were weeks away from a nuke? If Iran got a nuke on his watch he would be primaried In 2028.

Why would the neocon/neoliberal hawks in the intelligence community say Iran was a decade away from being a threat to the USA? That goes against every incentive they have.

And how were they weeks away from a nuke? We blew up the equipment and facilities they would need to refine the uranium and as far as I understand killed many of the people associated with the program. Even if the uranium dust wasn’t buried under tons of dirt it isn’t like they have the facilities to refine it. One doesn’t just buy a new centrifuge at Home Depot.

Face it: Trump had to have been trapped/hoodwinked by Bibi.
 

Riveting

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They didn't even have an active nuclear weapons program.

They did have a nuclear program, but the idea that they were even a year or so away was ludicrous.
I wish you had provided this inside info sooner.

Would you favor attacking them if they did have an active nuke weapons program - or an appeasement approach where we send them planeloads of cash?
 
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Riveting

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Why would the Vice President of the United States argue against military action behind the scenes (as has been reported many times) if they really were weeks away from a nuke? If Iran got a nuke on his watch he would be primaried In 2028.

Why would the neocon/neoliberal hawks in the intelligence community say Iran was a decade away from being a threat to the USA? That goes against every incentive they have.

And how were they weeks away from a nuke? We blew up the equipment and facilities they would need to refine the uranium and as far as I understand killed many of the people associated with the program. Even if the uranium dust wasn’t buried under tons of dirt it isn’t like they have the facilities to refine it. One doesn’t just buy a new centrifuge at Home Depot.

Face it: Trump had to have been trapped/hoodwinked by Bibi.
Then why did Trump go with a ceasefire against Bibi's wishes?
 

Riveting

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Really? What do you think the Iranian thought process is then?

The one I outlined is the same path followed by Israel, Pakistan and North Korea. They sought nukes to shield/use MAD them from other nuclear enabled enemies. I believe Iran is seeking to have or be perceived as having nukes as an deterrent on Israel.
Look up the "Twelver Shia apocalyptic theology" that predominates in the IRGC et al, and report back your findings.
 

baltimorened

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They didn't even have an active nuclear weapons program.

They did have a nuclear program, but the idea that they were even a year or so away was ludicrous.
not sure how you know this, but according to ai. it takes years to get from 0-60...."Enriching uranium from 60% to 90% is a relatively small technical step compared to the initial stages of enrichment. 1 While it sounds like a large jump, approximately 99% of the work required to create weapons-grade uranium has already been completed by the time it reaches the 60% level"

The Iranian negotiators told ours that they have enough 60% for 11 bombs. So they might not have been as far away a you think
 
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hawkeyetraveler

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not sure how you know this, but according to ai. it takes years to get from 0-60...."Enriching uranium from 60% to 90% is a relatively small technical step compared to the initial stages of enrichment. 1 While it sounds like a large jump, approximately 99% of the work required to create weapons-grade uranium has already been completed by the time it reaches the 60% level"

The Iranian negotiators told ours that they have enough 60% for 11 bombs. So they might not have been as far away a you think
As I said above, the fact they had the uranium doesn’t mean they have the equipment and people to make a bomb. Why would JD Vance argue against the war if they were so close? Why would the US intelligence committee say they were years away from having a bomb?

I just don’t buy it. Our intel community and Vance were against the war and the reporting is that Trump had a “gut feeling” which is why went went forward.

Trying to ascribe logic to Trump’s gut is a perilous path for logically minded folks to walk.
 

1Clemson

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Is
Look up the "Twelver Shia apocalyptic theology" that predominates in the IRGC et al, and report back your findings
I try to avoid propaganda of all types and just use logical thought. Is it similar to Christian fundamentalism hoping for Armageddon?
 
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Riveting

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Is

I try to avoid propaganda of all types and just use logical thought. Is it similar to Christian fundamentalism hoping for Armageddon?
Logical thought without information has limitations.

Not similar at all. Twelver Shia psychopaths believe they should work to bring about an apocalyptic event that will usher in the coming of the 12th Inman, Mahdi.

"Mahdism poses a serious, though vastly overlooked, threat to international security, primarily because its current articulation in Iran requires its adherents to take “proactive” steps to help usher in the Mahdi — most notably by initiating an “apocalyptic” showdown with the “greater” and “lesser” satans, namely, America and Israel."

Mahdism: The Apocalyptic Ideology Behind Iran's Nuclear Program - Middle East Forum
 

1Clemson

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Logical thought without information has limitations.

Not similar at all. Twelver Shia psychopaths believe they should work to bring about an apocalyptic event that will usher in the coming of the 12th Inman, Mahdi.

"Mahdism poses a serious, though vastly overlooked, threat to international security, primarily because its current articulation in Iran requires its adherents to take “proactive” steps to help usher in the Mahdi — most notably by initiating an “apocalyptic” showdown with the “greater” and “lesser” satans, namely, America and Israel."

Mahdism: The Apocalyptic Ideology Behind Iran's Nuclear Program - Middle East Forum
Sounds the same
 

Moogy

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not sure how you know this, but according to ai. it takes years to get from 0-60...."Enriching uranium from 60% to 90% is a relatively small technical step compared to the initial stages of enrichment. 1 While it sounds like a large jump, approximately 99% of the work required to create weapons-grade uranium has already been completed by the time it reaches the 60% level"

The Iranian negotiators told ours that they have enough 60% for 11 bombs. So they might not have been as far away a you think

When did Trump lie ... when he claimed we obliterated their nuclear program, or when he unilaterally got us into a war, supposedly because we hadn't obliterated their nuclear program and they were only months away from having a nuke?
 

baltimorened

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As I said above, the fact they had the uranium doesn’t mean they have the equipment and people to make a bomb. Why would JD Vance argue against the war if they were so close? Why would the US intelligence committee say they were years away from having a bomb?

I just don’t buy it. Our intel community and Vance were against the war and the reporting is that Trump had a “gut feeling” which is why went went forward.

Trying to ascribe logic to Trump’s gut is a perilous path for logically minded folks to walk.
that's Ok, I don't know any more about the background of this war than anybody else on the board does.

I'm just pointing out that it's not necessarily years to get to 90% from 60% ...and you can make a bomb at 60%...
 

DFSNOLE_rivals

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that's Ok, I don't know any more about the background of this war than anybody else on the board does.

I'm just pointing out that it's not necessarily years to get to 90% from 60% ...and you can make a bomb at 60%...
Could they have made a bomb that would've threatened the US in that timeframe? There was not an imminent threat to the US as stated by our own intelligence agencies. The justification used by the current administration was just another lie.
 
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Flie_rivals154594

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The smug was quite high back then. We were on the verge of world peace, $1 gas, low grocery prices, the genius Elon was going to make the government efficient and eliminate our debt, and we would finally be getting justice for the Epstein victims. Simply by voting for Trump.

Granted, the left was telling people "No this is crazy; he's not going to do any of this" but what does the left know about running the country?

It's not like the US economy consistently does better under their watch or anything like that.
 

hawkeyetraveler

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that's Ok, I don't know any more about the background of this war than anybody else on the board does.

I'm just pointing out that it's not necessarily years to get to 90% from 60% ...and you can make a bomb at 60%...
I agree if they had unfettered access to the right equipment and people it would actually be a matter of weeks. Except we destroyed all the equipment and a bunch of the people.

If you believe Trump‘s gut over professionals whose job it is to assess damage (DIA) then you might be in a cult. Now you don’t seem as deep into the cult as some others. You are close to the truth. Open your eyes, use some logic and put down the kool aid. You can do it big guy, I believe in you.
 

fskillet

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Logical thought without information has limitations.

Not similar at all. Twelver Shia psychopaths believe they should work to bring about an apocalyptic event that will usher in the coming of the 12th Inman, Mahdi.

"Mahdism poses a serious, though vastly overlooked, threat to international security, primarily because its current articulation in Iran requires its adherents to take “proactive” steps to help usher in the Mahdi — most notably by initiating an “apocalyptic” showdown with the “greater” and “lesser” satans, namely, America and Israel."

Mahdism: The Apocalyptic Ideology Behind Iran's Nuclear Program - Middle East Forum
Sounds similar to a lot of the psycho evangelicals with ties to the administration trying to usher along Armageddon
 

baltimorened

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Could they have made a bomb that would've threatened the US in that timeframe? There was not an imminent threat to the US as stated by our own intelligence agencies. The justification used by the current administration was just another lie.
I have no idea if Iran could build a bomb with the enriched uranium that have in hand. I doubt anyone on the board who is saying either "yes" or "no" has no idea either. For all any of us know they've already got bombs, or they might not have 60% enriched uranium.

Every post so far on this topic comes from "experts" on either MS NOW, CNBC or FOX. And all they know is what somebody wrote for them to read.
 

baltimorened

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I agree if they had unfettered access to the right equipment and people it would actually be a matter of weeks. Except we destroyed all the equipment and a bunch of the people.

If you believe Trump‘s gut over professionals whose job it is to assess damage (DIA) then you might be in a cult. Now you don’t seem as deep into the cult as some others. You are close to the truth. Open your eyes, use some logic and put down the kool aid. You can do it big guy, I believe in you.
clear eyes...but I'm not sure of point you're making. Trump says we've destroyed the equipment...but do you put 100% stock in what trump says? I don't. On DIA, I honestly have not seen or read about their assessments. If you have data to share I'd love to see it. I also think Israel has a good assessment, but they also have an agenda, which might influence their conclusions.
 

hawkeyetraveler

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clear eyes...but I'm not sure of point you're making. Trump says we've destroyed the equipment...but do you put 100% stock in what trump says? I don't. On DIA, I honestly have not seen or read about their assessments. If you have data to share I'd love to see it. I also think Israel has a good assessment, but they also have an agenda, which might influence their conclusions.
Here are q couple links below, but honestly I would recommend you ask AI to do a summary of the reporting…that will be the quickest way to get the full picture. There was a ton of reporting out there that Iran was not an imminent threat and nowhere close to 2 weeks away from having a nuke. There was reporting on two fronts:
  • Iran was several months to years away from being able to build a weapon if they even had the equipment post Fordow last year
  • Iran was about 9-10 years away from being able to threaten the US homeland with an ICBM
This lines up with the other reporting on JD Vance who argued strongly against the war. It also lines up with what Joe Kent said when he resigned over this issue and with the testimony Tulsi Gabbard gave when she did not say Iran was “2 weeks away”. It is not exactly a secret that Trump went with his gut over the advice of the intelligence community and JD Vance.

Final point: there were far better ways to counter the Iranian nuclear threat than what we did. Another Fordow style bombing run would have worked I’m sure. We could have continued down the negotiation path. And we sure as **** should have engaged Congress, the American people and our (increasingly former) allies on the need for this costly war.

Reuters
NBC
 

Hawkmanic23

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From their view: to counter a nuclear country that keeps bombing their country. They have probably noticed that no one attacks a country that likely has nukes.

Sounds like the same reason the US used to get into the space race or the ever increasing defense spending from the 'bomber deficit' or 'nuclear missile deficit' of the 1950's-1990. Fear plays strange tricks on a mind.
You’re giving the Iran regime too much credit.
 

pjhawk

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not sure how you know this, but according to ai. it takes years to get from 0-60...."Enriching uranium from 60% to 90% is a relatively small technical step compared to the initial stages of enrichment. 1 While it sounds like a large jump, approximately 99% of the work required to create weapons-grade uranium has already been completed by the time it reaches the 60% level"

The Iranian negotiators told ours that they have enough 60% for 11 bombs. So they might not have been as far away a you think
Oh for effs sake. You just believe whatever you're told by Trump and crew. I get it. Maga cult.