Virginia Redistricting PASSED!!

FLaw47

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I tend to agree with you that as bare-knuckle politics goes this is not beyond the pale. On the other hand, it is way worse than what Ohio has done in that Ohio has five Democratic seats out of 15 all together. If you do the analysis that some people did upthread about if you only have 40% of the voters or something like that, that you can justify zero members of the minority party. This is not that bad in that analysis either.

I would also mention that cuccinelli goes through four arguments that he thinks are legitimate. On the surface, they all sound legitimate to me but I realize he is not an objective source. Even if his arguments are sound, the odds are the Virginia supreme Court will find a way to evade what Virginia law is regarding the enactment of constitutional amendments.

I wasn't explicit about what Ohio had done. They banned partisan gerrymandering, their Supreme Court ruled the maps unconstitutional, and the state legislature just ignored them. That's what's worse.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
30,432
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It doesn't work that way. Just like Hispanics supporting ice.
Oh please Growls, Trump has been doing everything in his power to erase them in his second term. Why would they ever trust Republicans again?

From the anti-DEI campaign, rolling back anti-discrimination orders, cuts to healthcare, Cuts to HBCU/Pell grants, the erasure of black history from museums and federal websites to defunding education and now this, blacks have been significantly harmed under Trump's watch and their votes will reflect it.
 

DailyBuck7

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Mar 4, 2026
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I wasn't explicit about what Ohio had done. They banned partisan gerrymandering, their Supreme Court ruled the maps unconstitutional, and the state legislature just ignored them. That's what's worse.
Disenfranchising huge numbers of voters is worse. Also, the Ohio legislature did ignore the Ohio Supreme Court (4-3 decision) but the federal courts upheld what the legislature did. A later Supreme court decision (moore v harper) according to AI -- I haven't double checked) said that the Ohio Supreme court role in dealing with FEDERAL elections violated the US elections clause that holds that State Legislatures control redistricting for federal elections under the US Constitution. So, ultimately, the state legislature was vindicated.
 
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DailyBuck7

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good luck ever getting another black vote.
You live in a Left Wing fantasy bubble. Many blacks are offended by the Dems extremely aggressive social issues interventions and stupidity. Trump won increasing numbers of black votes in the last election. I would mention that this applies to many foreigners/immigrants. It is funny in that I was in Vietnam last year and people were selling maga shirts on the street.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
30,432
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You live in a Left Wing fantasy bubble. Many blacks are offended by the Dems extremely aggressive social issues interventions and stupidity. Trump won increasing numbers of black votes in the last election. I would mention that this applies to many foreigners/immigrants. It is funny in that I was in Vietnam last year and people were selling maga shirts on the street.
You live in a Right Wing fantasy bubble that informs you that everything that happened in November 2024 is unchanged. LMAO that you believe he's done anything but hurt them since. Times have changed Bubba - get with them. Your day after election talking points no longer apply.

"Today, however, new polling among Black Americans suggests the love is gone. Trump’s favorability has plummeted from 30 percent a year ago to as low as 13 percent last month. His job approval has fallen to 15 percent, less than half of what it was at that White House celebration. His current ratings are about what they were before he lost the 2020 presidential election."

 
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DailyBuck7

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I wasn't explicit about what Ohio had done. They banned partisan gerrymandering, their Supreme Court ruled the maps unconstitutional, and the state legislature just ignored them. That's what's worse.

You live in a Right Wing fantasy bubble that informs you that everything that happened in November 2024 is unchanged. LMAO that you believe he's done anything but hurt them since. Times have changed Bubba - get with them. Your day after election talking points no longer apply.

"Today, however, new polling among Black Americans suggests the love is gone. Trump’s favorability has plummeted from 30 percent a year ago to as low as 13 percent last month. His job approval has fallen to 15 percent, less than half of what it was at that White House celebration. His current ratings are about what they were before he lost the 2020 presidential election."

He is unpopular because of the war and its aftermath. This has nothing to do with redistricting. One can confidently rely on the clueless dems to screw up and also to this point Trump has not done what he said and has major unforced errors. Unfortunately the mid-terms and the next election will probably be mostly who will screw up less -- not who will help more.
 

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
44,813
33,944
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It's big!!!



The Hammer Has Fallen…And the Racial Gerrymandering Cartel Is in Full Psychological Meltdown.

April 29, 2026.

In a 6-3 surgical strike of pure constitutional ferocity, the Supreme Court has just executed Louisiana v. Callais with the cold, lethal precision of a scalpel through the heart.

Justice Alito’s majority opinion didn’t merely tweak a map. It drove a stake straight through one of the Left’s most insidious weapons:

the deliberate, race-predominant carving of congressional districts under the fraudulent banner of the Voting Rights Act. The second majority-Black β€œopportunity district” in Louisiana? Obliterated. Struck down. Ordered redrawn immediately.

This is not some incremental procedural win.

This is redistricting war mode officially detonated across the entire South.

The Fourteenth Amendment’s command of colorblind equal protection has roared back to life with teeth.

The psychological poison the race-industrial complex has been pumping into the body politic for decades…the toxic lie that Black voters are perpetual wards of the state who can only β€œwin” when segregated by melanin quota…has just been exposed and eviscerated in open court.

I have just published the full, unflinching dissection on Substack.

What you are about to read is the complete constitutional anatomy of the kill shot:

Alito’s masterclass in strict scrutiny, the concurrence from Thomas and Gorsuch that goes for the jugular of the entire race-conscious edifice, the psychological projection of the dissenting Left, and the strategic nuclear advantage this ruling now hands every Republican legislature from Baton Rouge to Atlanta to Columbia.

No mercy. No illusions.

Just raw, sophisticated truth about how this decision cabined the VRA’s most poisonous abuse while leaving the Republic’s foundational principle intact: the right to vote shall not be abridged on account of race…not because of it.

The counteroffensive has begun.

The venom belongs to them. The victory belongs to the colorblind Constitution.
 
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FLaw47

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Disenfranchising huge numbers of voters is worse. Also, the Ohio legislature did ignore the Ohio Supreme Court (4-3 decision) but the federal courts upheld what the legislature did. A later Supreme court decision (moore v harper) according to AI -- I haven't double checked) said that the Ohio Supreme court role in dealing with FEDERAL elections violated the US elections clause that holds that State Legislatures control redistricting for federal elections under the US Constitution. So, ultimately, the state legislature was vindicated.

Moore V Harper did, and I'm not exaggerating, the exact opposite of what you're claiming though it did provide enough of a stall for a new Ohio Supreme Court to be seated.
 
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Aardvark86

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You live in a Right Wing fantasy bubble that informs you that everything that happened in November 2024 is unchanged. LMAO that you believe he's done anything but hurt them since. Times have changed Bubba - get with them. Your day after election talking points no longer apply.

"Today, however, new polling among Black Americans suggests the love is gone. Trump’s favorability has plummeted from 30 percent a year ago to as low as 13 percent last month. His job approval has fallen to 15 percent, less than half of what it was at that White House celebration. His current ratings are about what they were before he lost the 2020 presidential election."

I have little doubt favorability has dropped, but I doubt it’s driven primarily by the things noted above. A little of it is normal incumbent effect, most of it is basic pocketbook stuff, and a little is the stuff you noted. In 24 I think he took about12%, which was up from a historic number around 8 or 9.

to be sure, this’ll hurt r’s in midterms, but how much remains to be seen given that 26 maps will still largely reflect some racial gerrymandering through packing.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
30,432
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I have little doubt favorability has dropped, but I doubt it’s driven primarily by the things noted above. A little of it is normal incumbent effect, most of it is basic pocketbook stuff, and a little is the stuff you noted. In 24 I think he took about12%, which was up from a historic number around 8 or 9.

to be sure, this’ll hurt r’s in midterms, but how much remains to be seen given that 26 maps will still largely reflect some racial gerrymandering through packing.
Did you or @DailyBuck7 read the article because it sounds like you think I'm making it up. I also asked AI.

Recent Polling Trends
Recent reports from Pew Research Center and Gallup highlight a downward trend across several key indicators:
  • YouGov Feb 2026 8% Reflects a low among Black respondents
  • PRRI Feb 2026 15% Down from a peak of 19% in early 2025
  • Decision Desk HQ Feb 2026 25% Polling average; noted a 10-point decline
  • Economist/YouGov Aug 2025 11% Noted a 25-point drop in net approval since May 2025
Analysis of the Decline

πŸ“ Key Insight: While Trump achieved a historic share of the Black vote in the 2024 election (approximately 15-16%), analysts suggest this support has eroded due to perceived unfulfilled economic promises and lack of specific policy wins for Black communities during his second term.

Economic Dissatisfaction
: Rising gas prices and general inflation have been cited as primary drivers for his plummeting numbers.

Social & Policy Issues: His administration's moves against DEI programs and rhetoric on Truth Social have also been linked to widespread disapproval, which currently sits at roughly 83% among Black American


The better question might be what has he done to gain their support?
 

Aardvark86

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Did you or @DailyBuck7 read the article because it sounds like you think I'm making it up. I also asked AI.

Recent Polling Trends
Recent reports from Pew Research Center and Gallup highlight a downward trend across several key indicators:
  • YouGov Feb 2026 8% Reflects a low among Black respondents
  • PRRI Feb 2026 15% Down from a peak of 19% in early 2025
  • Decision Desk HQ Feb 2026 25% Polling average; noted a 10-point decline
  • Economist/YouGov Aug 2025 11% Noted a 25-point drop in net approval since May 2025
Analysis of the Decline

πŸ“ Key Insight: While Trump achieved a historic share of the Black vote in the 2024 election (approximately 15-16%), analysts suggest this support has eroded due to perceived unfulfilled economic promises and lack of specific policy wins for Black communities during his second term.

Economic Dissatisfaction
: Rising gas prices and general inflation have been cited as primary drivers for his plummeting numbers.

Social & Policy Issues: His administration's moves against DEI programs and rhetoric on Truth Social have also been linked to widespread disapproval, which currently sits at roughly 83% among Black American


The better question might be what has he done to gain their support?
No I don’t think that at all. As I noted, economic promises
 

DailyBuck7

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Moore V Harper did, and I'm not exaggerating, the exact opposite of what you're claiming though it did provide enough of a stall for a new Ohio Supreme Court to be seated.
I didn't read the case. As I said, I was going by the summary of chat gpt
 

FLaw47

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I didn't read the case. As I said, I was going by the summary of chat gpt

So what happened is SCOTUS rejected Independent Legislature Theory but (for reasons I find unconvincing) sent the Ohio case back down for "further consideration" which gave the Ohio Supreme Court enough time to get more Republicans on it and change their minds.
 

DailyBuck7

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Mar 4, 2026
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Moore V Harper did, and I'm not exaggerating, the exact opposite of what you're claiming though it did provide enough of a stall for a new Ohio Supreme Court to be seated.
I read the syllabus of the case and you are correct. Thanks for the correction.
 
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Aardvark86

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He’s a solid election lawyer, obviously, but always a little weird when the lawyer talks like he’s actually the client.

I will also say, kudos on the bravado of displaying a β€œreceipt” from a court that was 7-0 d appointments, when the current court is 6-1 r appointments. Not that I’m that big a believer in political judges.
 
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LafayetteBear

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Compactness is not intrinsically subjective and although in certain circumstances it would be difficult to apply it does have real meaning. What it is designed to prohibit is the Philip Burton California, democratic,method of creating art and crazily drawn up gerrymandered districts. It would have to be part of any general law trying to stop the gerrymandering craziness.
Well, at least you are consistent. Kinda like Hermy McFluffins. Everything RWNJ's do is just perfect, and everything Democrats to is just plain wrong. Carry on with that view. I'm sure you'll be a hit at neighborhood cocktail parties.
 

m.knox

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Well, at least you are consistent. Kinda like Hermy McFluffins. Everything RWNJ's do is just perfect, and everything Democrats to is just plain wrong. Carry on with that view. I'm sure you'll be a hit at neighborhood cocktail parties.

Democrats have normalized violence. They are the party of REDRUM. The party of authoritarian rule. lol....

I'm telling you; you are the stupidest individual here. So glad you don't litigate.

Meanwhile......

Spanberger’s bad day in court​


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...nberger-bad-day-court-virginia-redistricting/
 

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
44,813
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He’s a solid election lawyer, obviously, but always a little weird when the lawyer talks like he’s actually the client.

I will also say, kudos on the bravado of displaying a β€œreceipt” from a court that was 7-0 d appointments, when the current court is 6-1 r appointments. Not that I’m that big a believer in political judges.
Elias is a commie activist with a law license.
 
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DailyBuck7

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Well, at least you are consistent. Kinda like Hermy McFluffins. Everything RWNJ's do is just perfect, and everything Democrats to is just plain wrong. Carry on with that view. I'm sure you'll be a hit at neighborhood cocktail parties.
I think you are drinking too much wine. I don't agree with the Venezuela action or the Iran war. I support Representative Massie in Kenducky. I don't agree with the extension of the FISA spying bill. I don't agree with further Republican gerrymandering in Texas and Florida as well as not agreeing with Dem gerrymandering in Virginia , Calif and Illinois. I don't agree with a lot of the original Republican gerrymandering in Texas & Florida. (To be clear I don't generally agree with gerrymandering but with long, sordid history of Dem gerrymanderying some defensive gerrymandering is justified.
 

fskillet

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Mar 26, 2026
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You live in a Left Wing fantasy bubble. Many blacks are offended by the Dems extremely aggressive social issues interventions and stupidity. Trump won increasing numbers of black votes in the last election. I would mention that this applies to many foreigners/immigrants. It is funny in that I was in Vietnam last year and people were selling maga shirts on the street.
Is this like when you see Auburn 2013 National Champions gear in third world countries?
 
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Aardvark86

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FWIW, I picked up via the SCOVA website that they apparently typically issue opinions on Thursday, so that's probably the first potential "heads up" day for the case.
 

PAWrocka

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Nov 3, 2008
21,118
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I can't fathom SCOTUS cares about compactness at this point.

@DailyBuck7 et al, Republicans have (generously) 0 credibility on the topic of gerrymandering.
  • Democrats have repeatedly backed federal anti-gerrymandering legislation like H.R. 1 / the For the People Act, which included redistricting reforms.
  • In Rucho v. Common Cause, the conservative majority of SCOTUS said federal courts could not police partisan gerrymandering, while the liberal justices dissented.
  • The states that have actually moved against partisan gerrymandering are overwhelmingly blue or purple, including California, Arizona, and Colorado, all of which use independent redistricting commissions.
  • Red states that passed anti-gerrymandering rules have often tried to gut or ignore them anyway, with Ohio and Florida being the obvious examples.
  • The latest escalation in partisan map-drawing has been tied to Trump pushing Texas to produce more GOP-friendly districts.
  • Banning gerrymandering only for one party is like banning hard fouls for one team while letting the other team play without rules (which is what had been happening at the state level)
  • If the GOP wants to complain, it should first support the same rules Democrats already keep trying to put in place nationally.
Maryland ….

thanks is for attending my Ted Talk.
 

TigerGrowls

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Gerrymandering is a hot topic these days. Illinois democrats wrote the book on it. Look at this map and consider that 14 out of 17 congressional districts are somehow blue. Illinois is not an overwhelmingly progressive state. Illinois is a state with overwhelmingly gamed elections.
 

Aardvark86

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Gerrymandering is a hot topic these days. Illinois democrats wrote the book on it. Look at this map and consider that 14 out of 17 congressional districts are somehow blue. Illinois is not an overwhelmingly progressive state. Illinois is a state with overwhelmingly gamed elections.

Yes it is but these sorts of don’t do much for me because there just aren’t that many people in a lot of those red square counties. The district map is what tells the story. Either way, it’s not like Illinois doesn’t have a history of machine politics corruption
 
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Aardvark86

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Woo hoo!!!! Color me surprised. SCOVA throws out redistricting. Haven't read yet.


Bottom line: process apparently still matters.

Basis for decision: VA constitution requires that a proposed amendment has to be approved twice by the general assembly before being put to the voters, and that there must be an intervening GA election before the second approval. In essence, it gives the voters two opportunities to express their views - once as a campaign issue in a GA election, and then a second time when the measure is put on the ballot. Here, the intervening election had not occurred because early voting in the second election started before the proposal was approved for the second time.
 
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Aardvark86

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A bit of an end of the day update.

1. A local news site has reported that ag jones may ask scova to stay the decision while he pursues an appeal to scotus.
2. I’m no va lawyer but I’m a bit mystified by that in that staying things would in essence leave us where we otherwise were, which is the clerk was enjoined from certifying the vote.

edit - apparently he sought a stay of the mandate, which might actually make some procedural sense

3. As to a scotus appeal, I have no idea what the federal basis would be but I suppose any decent constitutional lawyer can come up with a theory.
4. Perhaps it may relate to one hinted at by the dissent- that somehow the federal Election Day definition is controlling under state law and that it means only the day rather than when an early vote commences.
5. Not sure I buy that preemption theory generally, but it strikes me as risky in two fronts β€” first that the court is considering that term already, in the nrcc case, and second that if the principle were pressed it might gut early voting entirely (which I don’t think is an outcome that would be popular generally).
6. Finally, I note that ag Jones’s comments about scova were rather…impolitic, for a guy with a va bar license and future business before the court. I am beginning to wonder whether he is something of a dolt, consistent with his prior two bullets comments.
 
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TigerGrowls

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Dec 21, 2001
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BOOM!!!



The Virginia Supreme Court struck down the blatantly unconstitutional gerrymander attempt by Spanberger and the Dems.

This is a MASSIVE win for the GOP and the midterms. The Dems tried to steal seats in the House, and it backfired spectacularly.

Now not only do the Dems not gain the seats in VA, they are losing seats in other states due to the Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which is leading to the redistricting of red states in the south with more GOP representation. They started a gerrymandering war, and are losing.

Now combine this with voter ID and no mass mail-in ballots, combined with the coming drop in oil prices once Iran is finalized, and all the sudden the Dems are staring down the barrel of a bloodbath in the 2026 midterm elections.

The stars are aligning for 2026 to be a potentially fatal blow to the Democrats. If MAGA GOP win big, the illusion will be revealed, and the public will see with their own eyes that the Dems have been propped up by fraud, gerrymandering, propaganda, etc.
 

dpic73

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Jul 27, 2005
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@dpic73

Sorry man.........NOT!!!
At least the Virginia voters approved it Gomer, unlike the corrupt red hatter states who shoved it down their citizens throats and disenfranchised huge sections of their populations. Crowing about your mafioso's crime spree is not a good look, especially when you're already morally compromised. .
 
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TigerGrowls

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At least the Virginia voters approved it Gomer, unlike the corrupt red hatter states who shoved it down their citizens throats and disenfranchised huge sections of their populations. Crowing about your mafioso's crime spree is not a good look, especially when you're already morally compromised. .
Come on cousin goober....dont hate a playa.