No amount of meetings with oil executives can dig this administration out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. So far, Trump has been able to manipulate the markets with well timed Truth Social posts right before they close or open, often through reports of fake peace negotiations or escalation posts like the one he put out this morning. He will flip flop and start talking about peace by Friday to try to keep the bottom of the market from falling out before the weekend.
However, that approach is starting to lose its effectiveness as gas prices climb and reality sets in. It also only works when there’s actual oil supply in the system. Part of the reason it’s worked as long as it has is because the US press corps hasn’t consistently called out his or his administration’s lies and too often takes them at face value, which is frankly unforgivable, allowing those narratives to go largely unchecked. That window is closing, though, and this is why.
When the war started, a lot of oil was already in transit. It takes this oil a while to reach its destination, but those ships have now docked, that oil is being processed and used, now you will begin to see countries’ reserves start to dry up as new oil shipments don’t come in. This will hit poor countries first, but the pressure will slowly work its way up the ladder.
Real shortages are about to begin, and they will ripple through the world economy over the next few weeks. In the US, I don’t think we’ll see actual fuel shortages because we’re a net producer, but we’re not immune to the price hikes caused by supply and demand. Oil is a global commodity after all. As a result, I would expect to see record high gas prices in the coming days or weeks and with that increased prices across the board on literally everything else you buy. Things are going to get worse, and Trump is not going to be able to BS his way out of it.
The US has lost control of this war in that we can no longer unilaterally dictate the ending. Iran was much stronger than the administration anticipated. The landscape has now changed, our allies are now openly calling the administration out for its incompetence, which would have never happened before the war started. They will increasingly work around us, which will further erode US influence and power around the world, weakening us in the long run. Trump’s best and perhaps only move left is to walk away from this war completely and declare “victory” even though none of his prewar objectives have been accomplished.
It would be in all of our best interests, regardless of political affiliation, to pretend that the outcome is a win until he can be restrained after midterms, because if he escalates this further, Iran has the ability to knock out even more oil production in the region, which will only exacerbate the energy crisis. It’s sad that we have to coddle the ego of an old man, but I think it’s the only way to get through the next few months without him further damaging the country. I think it’s increasingly likely this will end with no deal and the strait being firmly under Iranian control for the foreseeable future, which would arguably be one of the biggest strategic defeats the US has ever suffered in a war.
I see little reason for Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal at this point, and even less reason to trust this administration to uphold anything they sign. With everything that’s happened and hardliners now firmly in control, the pressure is going to shift toward deterrence, and not compromise with the US. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll race for a bomb, but it makes sense from a strategic perspective.
I also don’t think it’s a coincidence they’re meeting with both Russia and Pakistan at the moment, both nuclear powers. Russia also happens to be the repository for the 25,000 pounds of uranium that was removed from Iran as part of the JCPOA. Pakistan gave them the centrifuges they’ve used for enrichment.
From the US perspective, any goodwill we had throughout the world has been destroyed by Trump. Through his trade wars, general incompetence, and vulgar behavior, he has removed any leverage we had with other nations that could have been used to help end the war. It will take decades to rebuild what he’s destroyed, if it can ever be rebuilt at all.
The fact remains, it’s time to end this war before it sends the world into an economic depression or worse. But hey, I’m just a person on a message board, what do I know?
This is all mainstream fake news talking points that no OBJECTIVE person believes. The US is holding ALL THE CARDS. The IRGC military is for the most part obliterated, they don’t control the Strait, they have NO NAVY, NO AIR FORCE, NO MISSILE AIR DEFENSES LEFT, NO INTELLIGENCE, Their money is drying up, their soldiers are not going to get paid soon, China and Russia aren’t defending them at all, and the USA has a massive force in the region about to destroy what little military is left of the IRGC. it’s essentially OVER FOR THEM.
NO OBJECTIVE PERSON reads all of these LITERAL FACTS ABOVE and suggests we are losing this military operation, I don’t even call it a war, because the other side is HIDING SCARED underground like little rats. They aren’t fighting, they’re hiding. Let me learn you something…
1) The US military is going to knock out whatever targets are left of the IRGC.
2) The US will likely take a few islands processing oil, and control them.
3) The US will eliminate most of the remaining hard line IRGC leaders.
4) Then The remaining few Iranian leaders left will either make a deal to give us the nuclear dust over there, or we will go in and take it, with little or no resistance from the IRGC at that point because their power will be knocked out, their command and control will be knocked out, and they will be hiding even deeper underground. Many of their so called leaders will surrender and tell us where they are, who’s left, what they are planning to do, and that regime will be systematically eliminated. That’s what is going to happen. PERIOD.
IRAN IS NOT WINNING THIS, NOT IN ANY WAY OTHER THAN THEY SADLY HAVE SOME OF OUR MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPREADING FALSE AND FAKE INACCURATE PROPAGANDA HERE TO OUR MICE BUT NAIVE AMERICANS TO USE OUR DISHONEST FAKE NEWS MEDIA TO TRY AND CONVINCE THE GOOD BUT NAIVE AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT WE ARE NOT WINNNG. THE TRUTH IS WE ARE WINNING IN EVERY MEASURABLE WAY!!
In my opinion, this IRGC regime currently in power are as bad or MAYBE EVEN worse than the Nazi‘s were. Except for that the Nazi regime wanted to kill Jews. this regime wants to destroy its neighbors, all of Europe, death to America, AND ALL OF THE JEWS!! To me, this makes them way worse. They had to be neutered if not completely dismantled. We all thought 911 was bad? If the IRGC got a nuclear weapon, they’d use it 100% for sure, because they don’t case about their own people, to them killing the world and destroying everything brings their Anti Christ false GOD riding in on a white horse to begin. 7 years of death and destruction to the world. That’s their end goal. to bring death and destruction and create a one world Religion, their own, a one world Currency, and to destroy everyone and everything in the process. We should all be grateful for what our extraordinary military has done. And thank them, not criticize them. But I get it. People are easily manipulated by the dishonest media. Guys, THEY HAVE AN AGENDA. It’s not real info they are reporting, it’s designed to prop up China and our adversaries because they know they can’t beat us militarily, so they want to destroy America from within by creating division within our own society. Thsts what Black Lives Matter was about. Division. That’s what the LGBTQ plus was all about. DIVISION. Thats what The New unrecognizable Democrat part of today is trying to sow. MORE DIVISION, ANTI TRUMP. If they can divide us as a people internally, like the art of war, they believe they can beat us militarily, and take Taiwan. They being China. Russia and what’s life of Iran, and North Korea. We need to become more United as a people. Not allow ourselves to be so divided. That’s what they are counting on our media to do. To divide us.
that is all.
