I've gotten punched in the face way too many times by RIVN. LOL! Not sure if I want another round.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
The name will continue to turn people away, but the content is very good.
High level AI summary: “Make a few high-conviction bets, structure them to survive uncertainty, and press them hard when they start working.”
chamath.substack.com
High level AI summary: “Make a few high-conviction bets, structure them to survive uncertainty, and press them hard when they start working.”
2025 Annual Letter
2025 was, in some ways, a historic year for Social Capital. Numerically, we did well. Our portfolio took an important inflection upwards when NVIDIA licensed Groq for $20B. However...
chamath.substack.com
But still a double beat AND raised guidance. It just would have been even better without the Iran headwind.
Lots of old crypto miners (now AI/data center plays) are looking strong - HUT, MARA, and RIOT. TWLO back from the dead. Breakout above $150, strong support at $117.
Do you think the IGV/software bounce is legit? Rough overnight session for NOW.
This is a good signal for me, facts over feelings. People think no one cares about bitcoin anymore, that Trump needs to pump it, etc. Meanwhile the 401k investor out there continues to plow money into the ETF, slow and steady.
Not yet. We need to figure out which software company will be able to use AI to make money
Tomorrow seems to be a good day to start a short position against the semiconductor stocks. I will buy some SOXS for a very short term play.
U.S. soldier arrested for $400K winning Polymarket bets on Maduro capture, DOJ says
The arrest comes as concerns have grown about people with inside information making bets on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.
www.cnbc.com
Wow
LOL! I assumed it was Baron.U.S. soldier arrested for $400K winning Polymarket bets on Maduro capture, DOJ says
The arrest comes as concerns have grown about people with inside information making bets on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.
Wow
Yet all the cronies in congress who buy/sell stocks based on insider information don’t get any penalty!U.S. soldier arrested for $400K winning Polymarket bets on Maduro capture, DOJ says
The arrest comes as concerns have grown about people with inside information making bets on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.
Wow
This is totally different because Trump’s kids own a piece of Polymarket so insider info bets make Polymarket look bad and users will question whether they are getting screwed. Not good for business.
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That’s not how Polymarket works. You bet against the market, not them. When a big bet hits, it’s those that bet against it that lose. Polymarket makes money off of fees on either side.
Yeah total brain-fart I edited my post. It’s bad for Polymarket business and user engagement will start dropping if they feel like they are getting scammed by insiders meaning less fees for Polymarket.
That is exactly the problem. It is a net sum zero game for Polymarket, Kalshi, etc. For every insider in the Trump administration that makes money off insider information, there is another person on the other side losing money. So essentially Trump administration and family is directly cheating the public.
AMD and the semi's are rolling! NVDA up to $208 (and still very cheap).AMD!
Nvidia stock closes at record, pushing market cap past $5 trillion
Nvidia's stock closed at its first record since October, as a rally in Intel pushed chipmakers higher.
www.cnbc.com
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Intel leading the charge in semi's? What year is this?AMD and the semi's are rolling! NVDA up to $208 (and still very cheap).
Nvidia stock closes at record, pushing market cap past $5 trillion
Nvidia's stock closed at its first record since October, as a rally in Intel pushed chipmakers higher.
Calls are expensive and I didn't want to limit myself to a time frame.No SOXS calls?
BTW, I'm still holding a ton of QLD shares from early 2023. Up roughly 300%! Let's go.
I really enjoy this thread and have learned a lot. I dabble in stocks but not nearly at the level of most of the regular posters on this thread. But I am curious. On average, when do folks sort of gauge their investments (winnings) and get out of a stock?
Are profits poured back into new investments or are they invested in some combination of safer vehicles or some combination? I realize that answers will differ widely but just trying to get a sense of what the average poster's approach is on this thread.
Anyway it is nice to see so many of my fellow RU grads do well.
Are profits poured back into new investments or are they invested in some combination of safer vehicles or some combination? I realize that answers will differ widely but just trying to get a sense of what the average poster's approach is on this thread.
Anyway it is nice to see so many of my fellow RU grads do well.
I let my winners run and sell losers rather quickly (the latter took me forever to learn); long term holds i’ll trim depending on how much it’s grown as a percentage of my portfolio; short term holds are largely driven by market momentum or the certain narratives. For my individual/taxable account I don’t touch “safer vehicles”. Thats what my 401k is for. I’m constantly looking for new stocks to put money to work. If I were retired I might be more conservative.
Everything in this thread should be qualified a bit (like RUAldo mentioned). My trading/personal account only represents a small amount of our overall investment assets (which most are in traditional index/passive etfs or funds). But this is the fun stuff and what we focus on.
For my trading account, it has evolved quite a bit over the years. I focus much more on technical analysis that I did in the past. This means I use stop loss/levels that signal when I should sell a stock if things go south (normally very tight.....so dump a stock if it drops 10-20%). Otherwise, let the trend ride and until it changes! For example, I bought MSFT last month around $400 with a strong level of support at $383. It dropped below that so I had to get out. Sure, I own a ton of MSFT in our other accounts, but trading is different.
Profit remains in my trading account so it grows over time (hopefully!).
Day 1 of the trade looks good, but with momentum like this, SOXS could easily go down 30-40% before going up. This is a case to buy the index.No SOXS calls?
Interesting day for the semi's with NVDA ripping higher, SMH being flat, and SOXX ripping lower. LOL!