What do we have to do to host?

[Raiderdawg]

Over the past 5 seasons, one SEC team each year won 16 or 17 conference games but didn’t host. Their average record was 37-18.

If we go 6-6 in conference and lose the governor’s cup game, we finish 38-17, which looks almost exactly like the SEC team that gets left out.

We need 8 conference wins to guarantee hosting. If we win 7 and beat Ole Miss, we probably host. If we win 5 or 6 conference games and lose the governor’s cup, then we may host, but we will need a few other potential hosts to choke.

 

[jlove20]

Makes you wonder how many wins we
might need in Hoover to sway the NCAA seedlings assuming we are hosting.

 

[She Mate Me]

Lot of good detailed analysis of specifically what's needed. I won't repeat that.

I'll just say this. They came into the UGA series a clear Top 8 seed favorite. They left after the Sunday UT game outside the Top 16. Basically performed 4 games under expectations (based on where they were coming into Georgia).

If they want to get back to obvious host, possible Top 8 seed status, they've got to do some unexpected things. That's not easy when the expectations are already high, but if you want to prove you're a top seed you gotta go out and PROVE it.

Sweep LSU. Not simple, but it really needs to happen. Get that done and just meeting expectations would get you to 17 SEC wins (2 vs AU , 1 each @ the Texas Two).

To get that national seed they gotta make up for those epic 17 up weekends and 17 somebody else up. Georgia and UT did it to us. We gotta do it to one of those last 3 teams. Surprise sweep someone who's really good and the conversation changes.

 

[615dawg]

A 17-win SEC team rarely has not hosted.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

A 17-win SEC team has never failed to host a regional.

But it may not this year. Let's get to 17 and find out.

18 would feel better.

 

[615dawg]

But it may not this year. I'd like to find out by getting to 17 and finding out.

The problem is that there aren't enough teams in the rest of the country that could push out a 17-win SEC team.

The ACC has 3 definite hosts and could get a fourth
The B1G has 1 definite host and could get a second
The Sun Belt has 1 definite host
Oregon State will probably host as an independent
Kansas is a possible host in the Big 12

If ALL of that happens, and its very unlikely, then there are 7 spots for the SEC. There will not be 7 17-win teams. You have to look at the entire hosting landscape.

Even if you allow yourself to give the Sun Belt a second host or Missouri State/Liberty a host spot, that's still 6 SEC teams.

 

[HailStout]

But it may not this year. Let's get to 17 and find out.

18 would feel better.

This board has ruined me. “Let’s get to F*** and find out”

I mean, I’m flattered but no thanks

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

A 17-win SEC team has never failed to host a regional.

I think you’re misinformed here. It’s happened multiple times. Heck it’s happened to us multiple times. We didn’t host at 17-13 (plus the Gov Cup, plus two wins in Hoover) in 2024. We didn’t host in 2014 at 18-12 (plus the Gov Cup, plus two wins in Hoover).

That said, those teams both stunk it up in non conference. We have not this year. So if this group gets to 17-13, yes we are hosting, IMO.

 

[Raiderdawg]

A 17-win SEC team has never failed to host a regional.

We went 17-13 in 2024 and were #2 at UVA.

 

[She Mate Me]

A 17-win SEC team has never failed to host a regional.

I do kinda wonder why you post something like this so definitively without doing the modest amount of research it would take (look at your own team's very recent past) to find out you're completely wrong.

 

[615dawg]

I do kinda wonder why you post something like this so definitively without doing the modest amount of research it would take (look at your own team's very recent past) to find out you're completely wrong.

My bad. Did a quick search and missed it. I can search quickly for just about anything football or basketball, but cant always trust college baseball sources.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

We probably SHOULD have hosted in 24. And probably do if we hang on to the lead in the Tennessee game in Hoover. But also, yeah don’t lose five nonconference games at home and don’t drop a home game to Missouri late in the year.

2014 I think our conference record was inflated by catching a lot of breaks on the SEC schedule that year. I think 10 of our 18 league wins were against teams that didn’t make the NCAAT. And we also did dumb stuff in nonconference like dropping two games to Holy Cross.

 

[She Mate Me]

My bad. Did a quick search and missed it. I can search quickly for just about anything football or basketball, but cant always trust college baseball sources.

I get that.

Once you get familiar with it, this is my go to for looking at current and recent past results.

You can change the season in the top left and look at results for teams over years. Also can pull up SEC standings...

RPI (Live) 2026 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2026 College Baseball RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

 

[She Mate Me]

We probably SHOULD have hosted in 24. And probably do if we hang on to the lead in the Tennessee game in Hoover. But also, yeah don’t lose five nonconference games at home and don’t drop a home game to Missouri late in the year.

2014 I think our conference record was inflated by catching a lot of breaks on the SEC schedule that year. I think 10 of our 18 league wins were against teams that didn’t make the NCAAT. And we also did dumb stuff in nonconference like dropping two games to Holy Cross.

I think this points out that the committee really doesn't give a 17 about total SEC wins . They care about quality wins (SEC or not) and bad losses.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think this points out that the committee really doesn't give a 17 about total SEC wins . They care about quality wins (SEC or not) and bad losses.

I think this is especially true now in an era of expanded conferences where schedule inequality within the league is higher.

 

[MagnoliaHunter]

I was listening to Doug and Mark this morning and they raised an interesting point. The path to Omaha could possibly be easier going to a regional site as a high 2 where we would get a low 1 rather than hosting as one of the lower 1s with higher 2s and 3s.

 

[She Mate Me]

I was listening to Doug and Mark this morning and they raised an interesting point. The path to Omaha could possibly be easier going to a regional site as a high 2 where we would get a low 1 rather than hosting as one of the lower 1s with higher 2s and 3s.

I'd rather be a middle 1 or Top 8 so we don't get paired with a top 2 or 3 national seed in a Super. Need to finish strong for a lot of reasons.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

This board has ruined me. “Let’s get to F*** and find out”

I mean, I’m flattered but no thanks

It's why you play the game!

 

[8dog]

We went 17-13 in 2024 and were #2 at UVA.

Our rpi was 25

 

[ezsoil]

I'd say it will come down to the hitting ....Sullivan, Reese, and Chance have got to get it going....our pitching is good enough to get to Omaha if he makes the right move and keeps Webb as the closer....

 

[She Mate Me]

I'd say it will come down to the hitting ....Sullivan, Reese, and Chance have got to get it going....our pitching is good enough to get to Omaha if he makes the right move and keeps Webb as the closer....

Absolutely. Agree completely.

Our "main" offensive guys have really been disappointing the last few weeks. Without a few bench guys showing out we would likely have lost 2 or 3 recent games that we won and a Top 8 seed would be completely off the table.

Our pitching overall has been better than our hitting, which is very unexpected for me, especially losing your top starter early.