What do we have to do to host?

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
39,561
19,329
113
We are currently 30-10 (10-8).

Series remaining - LSU, @ Texas (#4), Auburn (#11), @ A&M (#7)

I think if we finish 8-4 or better - we have a good shot a national seed. 7-5 or 6-6 - decent shot at hosting a regional.

Governor's Cup is now a big game. 1 final OOC game vs Nicholls St.

 
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DoggieDaddy13

All-Conference
Dec 23, 2017
3,495
1,881
113
We will have to sweep LSU and win 2 of the remaining series. And we cannot get swept. - Then we host a regional.

Teams would have to fall hard for us to make it into the top 8.

Would be great to host, but I'm thinking #2 - but somewhere we can still win it.
 

615dawg

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2007
6,732
3,750
113
I think we probably end up hosting at 6-6. Like you said, 8-4 or better will get us in position for a national seed, especially if we can win the Governor's Cup.

Best shot at 8-4 seems to be sweep LSU, take 2 from Auburn and then steal one of the Texas series on the road while not getting swept in the other.

Here's what I don't like. Virginia and Georgia are sure hosts that are behind us in the RPI.
 
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8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
14,203
6,147
113
Win the Gov Cup. But if we finish 16-14 that puts the world’s worst event into play- the SEC Tournament. 17-13 for a lock. And Xenomorphs bitching is proving correct. These OOC games are killing us.
 

GhostOfJackie

Senior
Apr 20, 2009
3,781
697
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Here's how I see it playing out, assuming we handle weekday bidness.

Finish:
14-16 SEC (4-8 in remaining games) - Out of hosting picture, but a solid 2 seed
15-15 SEC (5-7 in remaining games) - maybe still a host, hosting bubble
16-14 SEC (6-6 in remaining games) - hosting
17-13 SEC (7-5 in remaining games) - solid host, national seed bubble with Gov Cup win
18-14 SEC (8-4 in remaining games) - national seed
19-13 SEC (9-3 in remaining games - national seed (not happening but would be fun)

It pretty much plays out how it always does with SEC wins. Usually, it goes like this with final conference records.
14 wins - gets you in a regional
16 wins - usually means a host
18 wins - national seed (1-8)
20-22 wins - usually wins the conference, top 3 national seed

All this is BEFORE Hoover is factored in, which can change things.
 

MStateDawg

All-Conference
Aug 3, 2021
798
1,212
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Winning 7 of our last 12 SEC games (17-13 overall) will get us a Regional host (top 16 seed).

To get a top 8 seed, we'd need to win 9 of those 12 games (win all 4 series and sweep one of them). I don't think we have that in us.
 
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Willow Grove Dawg

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2016
7,461
4,552
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16-14 - hosting will depend how many teams are above us and tied with us in the Conference standings. Our OOC schedule/RPI will not stack up well against several teams that could be in a tie at 16-14 specifically Alabama, Auburn, Florida, & possibly Ole Miss.
17-13 - definite host, strong case for a national seed
18-12 should get a national seed.
We really need to avoid an OOC loss other than possibly Ole Miss & 4-0 against them would be a bonus if we are tied in the SEC.
 
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MSUDC11-2.0

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
9,161
14,397
113
It’s hard to say for sure because we don’t operate in a vacuum. Example, we had a really good week, but so did a bunch of other teams on the host bubble, so I’m not sure we did much more than hold our ground on the host bubble with this weekend’s sweep.

That said, my gut instinct is 7 more SEC wins probably gets us a host spot for sure. And that could mean going 17-13 or going 16-14 plus the Governor’s Cup. You’re very much on the bubble or worse with anything less than that. And I think 18-12 is probably the record for a realistic chance at a Top 8 seed.

I also think it would be ignorant of recent history if we didn’t mention that a deep run in Hoover could matter as well. See Ole Miss and Vandy last year. Not sure OM is hosting without their run in Hoover, not sure Vandy is number one overall without them winning the SECT.
 

Leeshouldveflanked

All-American
Nov 12, 2016
14,151
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In recent history, the most SEC teams to host are 8 teams. Right now we are on the outside looking in from an RPI standpoint. LSU (RPI 65) won’t help our RPI, but not sweeping them will hurt.
I think this could be a year in which only 7 SEC teams host, so 17-13 puts us as a host if we don’t lose a game to LSU.
The NCAA could care less about how many we can pack into The Dude.
 

MSUDC11-2.0

Heisman
Sep 29, 2022
9,161
14,397
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I think we probably end up hosting at 6-6. Like you said, 8-4 or better will get us in position for a national seed, especially if we can win the Governor's Cup.

Best shot at 8-4 seems to be sweep LSU, take 2 from Auburn and then steal one of the Texas series on the road while not getting swept in the other.

Here's what I don't like. Virginia and Georgia are sure hosts that are behind us in the RPI.
I think that’s a wash though at the moment given that Missouri State and USC (who is 0-8 in Q1 games) are ahead of us in RPI but likely behind us in the host pecking order. Maybe USM as well, unsure on that one.

I think we are likely somewhere in the 17-20 range in the pecking order at the moment. The thing that would concern me a bit is that of the SEC teams, we are probably 8th or 9th in line at the moment, depending on where you think we stack up vs Oklahoma (also 10-8, one spot ahead of us in the RPI). I don’t think the SEC is getting 9 host spots this year, and they may not get 8. Would be nice if teams ahead of us fell off a bit, or if we leapfrogged a few of them with a strong finish.
 

Dawghouse

All-Conference
Sep 14, 2011
1,152
1,015
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Winning 7 of our last 12 SEC games (17-13 overall) will get us a Regional host (top 16 seed).

To get a top 8 seed, we'd need to win 9 of those 12 games (win all 4 series and sweep one of them). I don't think we have that in us.
Agreed. I think national seed died with the UT sweep. 16-14 might get us a host, especially if we take gov cup.
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

All-American
Nov 12, 2007
25,593
9,809
113
We are currently 30-10 (10-8).

Series remaining - LSU, @ Texas (#4), Auburn (#11), @ A&M (#7)

I think if we finish 8-4 or better - we have a good shot a national seed. 7-5 or 6-6 - decent shot at hosting a regional.

Governor's Cup is now a big game. 1 final OOC game vs Nicholls St.

Keep winning.
 

Called3rdstrikedawg

All-Conference
May 7, 2016
1,536
1,438
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I don’t think we have but 3 Non-Cons left. I think we only had 55 games scheduled this year, unless there is a midweek game just not listed on the State site.
 

Called3rdstrikedawg

All-Conference
May 7, 2016
1,536
1,438
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State, Auburn, and Oklahoma have the hardest remaining schedules, with Ok and Aub playing each other. Arkansas and Florida have the easiest. Ole Miss & Alabama have the next easiest, but play each other.
 

dawgphd

Sophomore
May 16, 2008
1,615
166
63
9-3 sec to host. Maybe 8-4 but there is precedent to 18 not hosting
4-8 to make tourney. 14 wins has never missed ( or only once) 13 has missed some
No worse than 2-1 mid weeks
 

golferdog

Senior
Jan 1, 2024
1,009
798
113
7-5 in the remaining series is going to be really tough to do. They will have to get hot to have a chance to do that. Winning 2-3 games in Texas series is a tall task. Need to definitely win LSU and AU series at home. MSU always has to grind it out, so I would expect nothing else. Hope they can get it done.
 

The Peeper

Heisman
Feb 26, 2008
15,621
10,895
113

"What do we have to do to host?"​


The following would go a loooooong way in helping our cause

-Get a shortstop that can hit (even just a little), field cleanly, and throw the ball across the diamond.
-Get a catcher that can stop the ball from getting past them and can hit (even just a little). Throwing out a runner at 2nd base would be a "big big plus" too.
 

GoDawgz52

Sophomore
Aug 21, 2023
159
191
43

"What do we have to do to host?"

Lincoln Rhyme GIF by NBC

 

thekimmer

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2012
8,348
2,342
113
Put simply we need 7 more SEC wins out of 12 remaining starts to guarantee a host. How we get there is largely irrelevant but our most likely paths to do this are: First one non-negotiable. Do not get swept. Then win two of three at home in both series, win one road series 2-1 and lose one 1-2 or sweep one home series, win the other 2-1 and win one game in both road series.

We might make it with a 6-6 finish but that would not be a lock. If we can take all four series we might play ourselves back into the national seed talk but that is a longshot to accomplish and would still need some help. I think we have the pitching to do it but I don't trust our offense yet which is the exact opposite of what I thought we would be saying about this team.
 

00Dawg

Senior
Nov 10, 2009
3,230
525
93
7-5 and no midweek losses to lock up a host. 8-4 to get on the national seed bubble.
Warren Nolan's RPI predictor has us going 6-6 and being at RPI #20, with 6 other SEC teams with better hosting resumes, and to my eye, we'd likely be #18 overall.

In the rooting guide vein, now rooting against USC, Oregon, WVU, UVA, and Bama. Would like to root against USM, but if they fall too far, our RPI suffers.
 

STATEgrad04

Senior
Mar 3, 2008
693
657
93
7-5 and no midweek losses to lock up a host. 8-4 to get on the national seed bubble.
Warren Nolan's RPI predictor has us going 6-6 and being at RPI #20, with 6 other SEC teams with better hosting resumes, and to my eye, we'd likely be #18 overall.

In the rooting guide vein, now rooting against USC, Oregon, WVU, UVA, and Bama. Would like to root against USM, but if they fall too far, our RPI suffers.
And ole miss, ALWAYS ole miss.
 

Walkthedawg

All-Conference
Oct 3, 2022
1,009
1,796
113
We are currently 30-10 (10-8).

Series remaining - LSU, @ Texas (#4), Auburn (#11), @ A&M (#7)

I think if we finish 8-4 or better - we have a good shot a national seed. 7-5 or 6-6 - decent shot at hosting a regional.

Governor's Cup is now a big game. 1 final OOC game vs Nicholls St.

Was talking to someone just yesterday about it. 8 was the magic number with what's left as well.

Probably sort of depends how Florida State finishes. The last one to the table for a host spot can get shafted based on the "we can't give too many spots to the SEC"