The economy

Dadar

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Started new position in NASA today at 28.3. top holdings %: Space X 9.55, ASTS 7.61, RKLB 7.26, PL 5.87, SATS FLY VNP FTC OHB 5 to 4.2

Also a small position in TROX at 9.34

Added to IONQ
 
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baltimorened

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Poor woman said she was using her DoorDash tip money to pay for her husband's cancer care.


so, we've posted about healthcare on another thread.... without being sexist, she looks older than 65, so she should be on Medicare. Medicare pays 80% of costs, and you can buy a supplemental for couple hundred a month..depending on age etc.

I'll never understand what someone over 65 would not have a supplemental plan...parts start wearing out after 65 and that's when the majority of healthcare costs pile up..

lesson here for you young guys.
 

baltimorened

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Actually, I see it more as the big bank trading desks knowing how to push liquidity
well, that's in their best economic interest right? And banks don't give a big rat's S--t what Cheeto does..there in this to make money

IMO, Cheeto may have farted with this Iran excursion and lots of people sold...I assume some of them were maganites...but I might be wrong.
 

Dadar

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well, that's in their best economic interest right? And banks don't give a big rat's S--t what Cheeto does..there in this to make money

IMO, Cheeto may have farted with this Iran excursion and lots of people sold...I assume some of them were maganites...but I might be wrong.
There is a disconnect between the stock market, economy, DEBT and geopolitics that does not look good for USD valued assets
 

bdgan

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There is a disconnect between the stock market, economy, DEBT and geopolitics that does not look good for USD valued assets
Corporate earnings remain strong but the PE ratio is very high.

Consumer spending is also strong but a lot of it is on credit cards.

Neither the government nor individuals are capable of exercising fiscal discipline.
 
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baltimorened

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There is a disconnect between the stock market, economy, DEBT and geopolitics that does not look good for USD valued assets

There is a disconnect between the stock market, economy, DEBT and geopolitics that does not look good for USD valued assets
but, hasn't there always been a disconnect between a lot of these factors? Sometimes more than others, for sure. The debt is the one thing that we don't seem to have a handle on, and neither party seems to care about that.

Some people, like the government are overextended, but, having lived through the debates over deficits/debt/income inequality for years, the words are the same, amounts different, action - or inaction - the same.
 
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fatpiggy

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I believe many have gotten so acclimated to the resilience that they see no reason to sell.
True.

The Fed Put its known as.

S&P 500 fwd PE looks reasonable here.


The market comes down to oil. If it moderates in the next couple weeks, the market wants to take off.

If oil stays too high too long, it will jam up the economy.

Big power moves in oil going on and it’s all to Irans detriment at the moment. Not looking good for them.

The market likes the US position, portfolios hitting g all time highs here.

This market is primed at the pump to go higher, if oil comes down we make skyrocket.
 

baltimorened

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I believe many have gotten so acclimated
to the resilience that they see no reason to sell.

True.

The Fed Put its known as.

S&P 500 fwd PE looks reasonable here.


The market comes down to oil. If it moderates in the next couple weeks, the market wants to take off.

If oil stays too high too long, it will jam up the economy.

Big power moves in oil going on and it’s all to Irans detriment at the moment. Not looking good for them.

The market likes the US position, portfolios hitting g all time highs here.

This market is primed at the pump to go higher, if oil comes down we make skyrocket.
most people, by definition, are optimistic. Reasoned minds don't see a world where we fight over one thing and the world economy becomes distorted. How many of us really think oil prices will remain this high for a year or more? So, we base the future on the past (sometimes a mistake) and see opportunity now for when everything gets back to 'normal". People like me, remember the 1970s oil embargo where you couldn't find gasoline - there was none. We wondered then what would become of the world economy...but smart people solve problems and things get back to a semblance of normalcy. Will this time be the same..you'll know when you're my age.
 
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Dadar

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True.

The Fed Put its known as.

S&P 500 fwd PE looks reasonable here.


The market comes down to oil. If it moderates in the next couple weeks, the market wants to take off.

If oil stays too high too long, it will jam up the economy.

Big power moves in oil going on and it’s all to Irans detriment at the moment. Not looking good for them.

The market likes the US position, portfolios hitting g all time highs here.

This market is primed at the pump to go higher, if oil comes down we make skyrocket.
The Iran special military operation sure pulled the petrodollar up from a significant slide that also shows in central bank gold and reserve currency allocations

Not knowledgeable on the particulars, but I keep hearing reference to $80 being key for WTI. Maybe next season of Landman will shed more light. 👍
 
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Dadar

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Before the fed put, we had the much talked about plunge protection team cabal, but the massive QE in 2008 put the WS "bulls and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered" adage into a foot note
 
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Dadar

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Started new position in NASA today at 28.3. top holdings %: Space X 9.55, ASTS 7.61, RKLB 7.26, PL 5.87, SATS FLY VNP FTC OHB 5 to 4.2

Also a small position in TROX at 9.34

Added to IONQ
Not to discount competitive risk such as from IBM, China, etal, but from all I can gather, the approach that IONQ has taken with quantum offers unique advantages in areas like energy requirements for cooling and quantum computing capability from a favorable fundamental base

I was able to take profits last year in the 60+$ range from a basis of about $25 reducing the market value down by about 90% when trading in the 60+$ range.

Started adding back when it dropped with a current basis of 36.75. it is currently trading just under $34 a share in close proximity to what I see as an established base

Just my 2 cents fwiw

 
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Dadar

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Not to discount competitive risk such as from IBM, China, etal, but from all I can gather, the approach that IONQ has taken with quantum offers unique advantages in areas like energy requirements for cooling and quantum computing capability from a favorable fundamental base

I was able to take profits last year in the 60+$ range from a basis of about $25 reducing the market value down by about 90% when trading in the 60+$ range.

Started adding back when it dropped with a current basis of 36.75. it is currently trading just under $34 a share in close proximity to what I see as an established base

Just my 2 cents fwiw


Added note: closed Rigetti & D-Wave quantum stock holdings out last year. Maintaining Google stock with quantum interest and QTUM etf holdings while increasing IONQ

Took a look at the ionq 19% ( current jump into a 0.618% retracement back up the swing down from 41.9 on Feb 26. Will wait for a pullback to add further. New positions may warrant the analysts average upside 65 target to incrementally build

It will be interesting to see how the recent breakthrough news pushes upgrades also. Anywhere under 50 sure seems good for small entry builds for a base price.

Again, just imho
 
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scotchtiger

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There were rumors of a Elon vs Bessent dust up too. Bessent must be a boss.....





Saw him speak recently in a private setting (ie no cameras, recordings or reporters). He’s awesome. Pretty sure he sold that house a while back. But he said he’s moving back to Charleston after Trump’s term. He doesn’t need the job or a political future, so he’s able to operate much more freely as a result.
 
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scotchtiger

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Interesting thoughts



We’re going to need some really smart and logical people to solve the economic shifts that will come from AI and advanced robotics. Not a lot of those people in DC unfortunately. The left can’t even logically tie together their stated tax problem with rational policy. I have no confidence that they would contribute to a productive solution to this.
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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Saw him speak recently in a private setting (ie no cameras, recordings or reporters). He’s awesome. Pretty sure he sold that house a while back. But he said he’s moving back to Charleston after Trump’s term. He doesn’t need the job or a political future, so he’s able to operate much more freely as a result.
I probably saw you there. He did sell that house, he was cracking on his real estate agent in the speech (who also happens to be on this board, lol). He did a great job.
 

TheValley91

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We’re going to need some really smart and logical people to solve the economic shifts that will come from AI and advanced robotics. Not a lot of those people in DC unfortunately. The left can’t even logically tie together their stated tax problem with rational policy. I have no confidence that they would contribute to a productive solution to this.
Just like how the right is killing it with their healthcare solution amirite?
 

scotchtiger

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Dec 15, 2005
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Just like how the right is killing it with their healthcare solution amirite?

That’s literally the issue that had me abandon the Republican Party in 2017. “Repeal and replace” only to have absolutely no solution prepared for the replacement.

They are all morons. Give them all less scope, less power, less of our money.
 
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bdgan

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That’s literally the issue that had me abandon the Republican Party in 2017. “Repeal and replace” only to have absolutely no solution prepared for the replacement.

They are all morons. Give them all less scope, less power, less of our money.
What's the democrat solution?
 
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baltimorened

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Musk is obviously a smart guy but I think he's wrong about this. Paying more people not to work won't end well.
what happened to all those sociology studies that told us how work is great for our psyche?

What will all these people do with all their free time?
 
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fatpiggy

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what happened to all those sociology studies that told us how work is great for our psyche?

What will all these people do with all their free time?
Create.

I think people will separate themselves from others by what they create. Every body gets a basic high income, but if you have something creative that robots can't do, you will separate from the pack. I'd be willing to bet that there are a lot of things that robots can't do and won't be able to do for a long time.