So you disagree with the president's social post from this morning.
The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
anybody remember chicken little? Or before your time?
"Chicken Little" is slang for a person who panics easily, spreads alarm, or constantly predicts disaster without justification (a "doomsayer"). Based on the folktale character, it describes someone who overreacts to a situation, claiming the "sky is falling" when a catastrophe is not imminent.
Well done, Ned
did Mr kobeissi give any further details or just the numbers? it would be interesting to see the underlying changes...was the 4.4% YOY or one quarter to the next?
War in Iran sends inflation soaring and the mood of American consumers plunging
The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades caused a sharp spike in inflation in March, creating major challenges for the inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve and heightening the political challenges of rising costs for the White House.
apnews.com
Toothpaste is out of the tube.
War in Iran sends inflation soaring and the mood of American consumers plunging
The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades caused a sharp spike in inflation in March, creating major challenges for the inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve and heightening the political challenges of rising costs for the White House.
Toothpaste is out of the tube.
Clearly oil is a very important piece of the puzzle that is the global economy. We have massive amounts of military power over there so we understand the importance.
It’s fair criticism to critique Trumps war and you will get no rebuttal from me that it is inflationary.
Can he make it temporary? The people I follow say high $70’s for a barrel of WTI is a magic point. Get oil to $78 and inflation will stabilize.
I agree all eyes on oil over the next 3-4 months.
Trump is definitely losing some of his base with this detour. If he can make it a quick detour then maybe Republicans surge at midterms, and on the flip side Iran and Democrats will do everything in their power to prevent him from having any success. A high risk play for sure, but some would say there is no right time to let Iran get a bomb.
My concern here is that this isn't a detour, no matter what happens next. Iran now has more power and money and reasons to be anti USA than ever before. Calling it a detour I feel is disingenuous. There is real concern the petro dollar could fail.
What even is success right now?
Success is Iran not getting a nuclear bomb and that has always been the clearly stated goal.
Trump may have miscalculated and it very well may turn into a complete quagmire, that’s a fair criticism.
But I wouldn’t want to bet against the US military. If we want the shipping lanes open, I’d bet they get open. It very well could be very costly though. Politically and economically.
personally I think the definition of success has shifted within the administration....it seems as if we're prepared to claim success in that we've destroyed their navy and air force, destroyed or damaged a significant part of their missiles/drone manufacturing base, set back their nuclear program for years. But, at least according to a nuclear expert on CNBC this morning, getting the nuclear material out of Iran, while possible, would be extremely hazardous - as he anticipates that some of the containers might be damaged - so that might be off the table for this excursion. And the strait of Hormuz is still not open, and I don't think you have success without restoring passage to previous levels...JMO.
Sure. So success is cleaning up the mess that the excursion caused.
The navy and airforce were like 50 years old correct?
It could well end up that way, for sure. IMO the only way anyone can justify the "excursion" is if you accept the concept that Iran was within weeks of having military grade enriched uranium, and was close to having the means to deliver it. The question for me, and for others, is do we accept Iran having a nuclear weapon, are they close, and depending upon the answers, was now the time to take action. Opinions, as we have seen from posters on this board, will differ.
The age of the air force and Navy...I don't know for sure, but from what I've read they had some relatively modern "solemani" class ships and their fast boats were modern. I'm pretty sure you're right about the air force --generally old airplanes, but capable of delivering munitions, no match for ours. Air defense, which I failed to mention, was pretty modern
it's hard putting a happy face on a S--t sandwich. bernstein had the honor during biden's term, now it's hassett's turn
Countries are rethinking U.S. fossil fuels after Iran war
As economies in Asia and Europe reel, leaders make plans to replace imported oil and gas with homegrown energy.U.S. energy firms investing billions of dollars in hulking liquefied natural gas export terminals along the Gulf Coast have capitalized on an insatiable appetite for the fuel from Europe and fast-growing economies in Asia.
Now, the conflict in Iran has many of those customers vowing to go on a permanent diet.
As Asia and Europe grapple with the energy disruption created by the war, countries there are scrambling to pivot away from imported fuels, throwing a wrench into the expansion plans of American energy companies and fossil fuels’ long-term outlook.
personally,I think they should spend a ton of money on wind and solar.. Germany would provide a solid example for them to follow.
asia and Europe. My response was in regard to the article that countries were rethinking Us fossil fuels.
Further down in the article it speaks to that. Here's a snippet since it's likely behind a paywall for you.
"For American producers, the timing is awkward.
While existing LNG export terminals are running near full capacity, largely insulated by long-term contracts, the next wave of projects depends heavily on demand growth in precisely the countries that are reconsidering their commitment.
In some cases, Asian governments are intervening directly, forcing reductions in energy use to preserve limited supplies, and working to fast-track clean energy projects.
In the Philippines, officials are rushing to bring more than a gigawatt of solar capacity online within weeks while advancing a massive solar-and-battery installation designed to reduce reliance on gas-fired power. Vietnam has signed a deal to develop a new nuclear power plant, reviving a program it had abandoned years ago, while expanding offshore wind. Indonesia is accelerating a major hydropower project to power its industrial sector. It is also exploring small modular nuclear reactors as an alternative to gas plants.
Individually, none of these moves would be enough to displace large volumes of imported energy. Taken together, they point to a broader shift that could erode one of the central assumptions underpinning fossil fuel export growth by the U.S. and other oil- and gas-rich nations.
“It is unequivocally clear that the sales pitch for LNG as a reliable, affordable fuel is quickly evaporating” said Sam Reynolds, a research lead at the nonprofit Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “The rug has been pulled out completely from under the industry narrative.”
He’s got a point. Don’t necessarily agree with him, but stocks were the best place to hide when inflation went higher under Biden.
Looks like the strait is getting some movement. Would be a boost to markets Monday morning if it continues to see safe passage.
My guess is Trump sent a couple sacrificial boats into the strait and told Iran if they touch them Bridge and Electric station Day begins immediately.
My guess is Trump sent a couple sacrificial boats into the strait and told Iran if they touch them Bridge and Electric station Day begins immediately.
seems to still be some debate about that.
Based on the end of the talks in pakistan, I'd think we might have to have a couple of combat engagements between the Us Navy ships in the strait and Iranian forces to see if we have the capabilities to protect transiting vessels that we think we have.
I'm afraid we're in for a couple more weeks of bombing...maybe now concentrated on the strait
was just thinking also, is there any need to keep the negotiators off the "kill" list. Seems there might not longer be a need for them.
Also thought....so the leaders of Iran were willing to forgo working toward a nuclear weapon in return for cash during Obama years, but they're not willing to forgo work toward a nuclear weapon in order to save their country from further destruction...something just doesn't seem right to me in that line of thought.
Negotiations have failed. Iran can get new negotiators for next time. Hunting season season just reopened as far as I’m concerned.
however I think we might need a little more time to complete a search for sea mines that Iran might have emplaced and to do maintenance and replenishment ops.
it would be a big step for Iran to kick things off by shooting at us so in the meantime we can just keep doing what we are doing until we are ready.
The market still down just a little less than 1% since the whole Iran war started. A little surprising to be honest.
To me that’s a very bullish statement on the economy.
It tells me that the market thinks the oil situation will get worked out one way or another. Either the strait opens or people other than Iran start supplying the oil.
To me that’s a very bullish statement on the economy.
It tells me that the market thinks the oil situation will get worked out one way or another. Either the strait opens or people other than Iran start supplying the oil.
I’m still up on the year. Wars cause blips in the market and that’s it.