Bacatology 3/2 NCAA Tourney Bracket Analysis
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Oklahoma State was up double digits in first half and still had a small lead for much of 2nd half but wilting as the game goes on and Houston up now 9 and it looks like the Cowboys bubble is about to burst.
Va Tech fighting Virginia tough down only 4 with 2 to go
Va Tech fighting Virginia tough down only 4 with 2 to go
losing to Marquette would be an abomination. Florida's metrics have improved so much. I would flip them with the Gators if the metrics say so especially if they win at Kentucky today. I know UConn has some great OOC stuff but a loss to Marquette would be their 2nd bad loss albeit still quad 2.
the Big East is a complete horror show in quality....a collapse that has been building.
Not only would they have 2 Q3 losses, but they would not have won the Big East. They're extremely lucky to even be considered a 1 seed right now with how they have been playing. People complain about Duke/UNC/Kansas getting name brand bump but Uconn gets just as much cause of the 2 championships
Arkansas survives Missouri in OT 88-84. Razorbacks without top player Acuff but won anyone are pretty much locked on the 4-5 line right now. Was my top 5 coming into the day. Missouri missed a shot to move to an 8 and looks like a 9/10 currently
i got that messed up my bad...the games on the road..its Q2 but its an horrendous loss for anyone paying attention to how bad Marquette is this season.
yup thats a big deal they didnt win the conference
Marquette up 62-55 with 3:10 to go
HURLEY TD AND TOSSED
LMFAO
MARQUETTE WINS
GOODBYE BIG EAST CHAMPIONSHIP AND POSSIBLY GOODBYE #1 SEED
losing to a horrible 12-19 team
LMFAO
MARQUETTE WINS
GOODBYE BIG EAST CHAMPIONSHIP AND POSSIBLY GOODBYE #1 SEED
losing to a horrible 12-19 team
Arizona State up at Iowa State at half 41-37
TCU up over Cincy 32-29 at half
SMU in deep trouble at Florida State 45-27 at half
Stanford up 31-26 at North Carolina State with about 3 and change left in 1st half
TCU up over Cincy 32-29 at half
SMU in deep trouble at Florida State 45-27 at half
Stanford up 31-26 at North Carolina State with about 3 and change left in 1st half
Think Akron going to beat Miami and a one loss Miami going to get in, so one bid going away.
FLA now one seed to lose.
Impressive win by Arkansas.
Auburn doesn’t deserve in. I don’t care about their Strength of Schedule.
Kansas reminds me of Purdue as on a good day, as good as anybody. Too many bad days though or are they just going through the motions until they turn it on. Either way hard to figure.
Watching Hurley self destruct is amusing and how lucky was he in getting Cam.
SMU playing self out of tourney.
Miami could take a seeding hit today.
FLA now one seed to lose.
Impressive win by Arkansas.
Auburn doesn’t deserve in. I don’t care about their Strength of Schedule.
Kansas reminds me of Purdue as on a good day, as good as anybody. Too many bad days though or are they just going through the motions until they turn it on. Either way hard to figure.
Watching Hurley self destruct is amusing and how lucky was he in getting Cam.
SMU playing self out of tourney.
Miami could take a seeding hit today.
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2 seeds and 3 seeds look decent and capable but none of the 4 and 5 seeds look impressive. Like at all.
TTU and Gonzaga and UNC don't have their best player, Alabama and Arkansas have no defense, Virginia is barely winning games and got demolished by Duke, Kansas is extremely hot and cold, Vandy struggles vs good teams, Tennessee sucks.
I am not expecting any 1 seeds to lose before the E8.
TTU and Gonzaga and UNC don't have their best player, Alabama and Arkansas have no defense, Virginia is barely winning games and got demolished by Duke, Kansas is extremely hot and cold, Vandy struggles vs good teams, Tennessee sucks.
I am not expecting any 1 seeds to lose before the E8.
Arizona State was outscored by 25 in the 2nd half and are now officially out of the any ncaa bubble talk
TCU wrapped up an at large by taking down Cincy. The Bearcats will be in consideration but look like a distinct longshot
SMU loses at Florida State 91-78. They might still be in the field right now at 4:27PM but their profile seems very West Virginia like from last year and ripe to be picked off by a bid stealer. Still the bubble is so atrocious around them today they might just hang in
Vanderbilt wins at Tennessee in a huge seeding implication game...Vandy is at worst a 5 now with outside shot at 4. Tennessee is looking more like a 6 but the UNC injury could boost them back to 5.
Stanford one of the rare bubble teams to win today won at NC State but still are in a tough spot with 3 Q3 losses. NC State has been killing their seed of late and might be locked into a 10/11 just a hair above the last 4 grouping so that is interesting to note. I do think they are 99.5% in the field even with the sputter but will revisit the metrics tomorrow.
Florida may possibly move to a 1 seed replacing Connecticut if the Gators can win at Kentucky
TCU wrapped up an at large by taking down Cincy. The Bearcats will be in consideration but look like a distinct longshot
SMU loses at Florida State 91-78. They might still be in the field right now at 4:27PM but their profile seems very West Virginia like from last year and ripe to be picked off by a bid stealer. Still the bubble is so atrocious around them today they might just hang in
Vanderbilt wins at Tennessee in a huge seeding implication game...Vandy is at worst a 5 now with outside shot at 4. Tennessee is looking more like a 6 but the UNC injury could boost them back to 5.
Stanford one of the rare bubble teams to win today won at NC State but still are in a tough spot with 3 Q3 losses. NC State has been killing their seed of late and might be locked into a 10/11 just a hair above the last 4 grouping so that is interesting to note. I do think they are 99.5% in the field even with the sputter but will revisit the metrics tomorrow.
Florida may possibly move to a 1 seed replacing Connecticut if the Gators can win at Kentucky
Its all about matchups and whether the 1s are locked in. Im wondering if Virginia can possibly bump Nebraska for that 3. Also will the selection committee ding Texas Tech, UNC, Gonzaga and possibly Arkansas for injuries. They almost definitely will with BYU especially with placement concerns.
if Auburn wins today they are in, they deserve..the rest of the bubble is complete trash for the most part, running out teams to put in.
I know Miami was a 7 on matrix but I didnt buy into that..more like a 8. Louisville probably going to get that 6 especially with the BYU injury. I would be floored personally but not surprised if they are a 5 which no way they deserve.
one of the sleaziest characters on the game. Makes Tarkanian look like a choir boy
I think there is a really high chance NC State gets left out. Kenpom 37, Torvik will be 40+, and their WAB is going to fall to a measly 0.3 (around #47). SOR will be even worse than that when it updates. The big issue is the Q4 loss. I'm not sure that 0.3 WAB is enough to overcome Q4 loss.
NCAA's Dan Gavitt on 2/19/26: "Wins Above Bubble is important, especially from the selecting of teams. ... When it gets to seeding, the predictive [metrics] are a little more important."
Michigan had a better record than Purdue, was 2-1 against them, won the Big Ten tournament, and had #9 WAB (6.8 vs Purdue's 4.8) and was given a 5 seed (Kenpom 26) and Purdue was given a 4 seed (Kenpom 16). Virginia's Kenpom of 20 might be too low to get a 3
he's obviously accomplished a lot more, but Hurley is just as unhinged as Mike Rice
i can find 10 different quotes he uses for criteria, in fact I have seen quotes where wab is used for seeding..they will change all the time, Personally I do not give much credence to kenpom but will look at sor. Head to head doesnt matter all that much and I think the lateness of the big 10 tourney is a detriment...there still is debate over how much the conference tourneys factor at all...before last year people were thinking it didnt based on past 5 year evidence, last year it did matter a bit.
Mercyhurst has made the final of the NEC but they are ineligible because of their transition into the NEC
that means LIU-Wagner winner is for all the NEC marbles...LIU the regular season champ wins 64-56 and are the first school to punch their ticket to the NCAA tourney
that means LIU-Wagner winner is for all the NEC marbles...LIU the regular season champ wins 64-56 and are the first school to punch their ticket to the NCAA tourney
Wisconsin now has 3 high end Q1 road victories at Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue in addition to a high level Q1 home win over Michigan State. There is definitely a case to be made that the Badgers could wind up on the 5 line. Purdue is 9-8 in Q1 games...still tough to budge them from the 3 line but it is no longer a sure thing as they could slide to 4 depending on some other results.
bad for metrics but as regular season #1 seed but co champ with VCU and 6-3 in Q1/2 and 15-4 in Q1/2/3. Swept VCU and Santa Clara so they are several spots above those schools at this time...now they dont want to absorb a quarterfinal A10 loss but Bilikens with the weakness of the bubble are probably 95% in.
Ohio State up 50-33 at half. Buckeyes lock in with win. Indiana in huge huge trouble yet somehow with the awfulness of the entire bubble actually stay in the field.
Florida wins at Kentucky and for me before numbers crunching scrub tomorrow night will slide into the #1 seed bumping UConn to a 2.
Georgia wins at Mississippi State and locks up at worst an 8 and has shot at a 7
Utah State wraps up the regular season MWC title by beating New Mexico 94-90...Lobos are in serious trouble right now.
Another bubble goes down...California beaten at Wake and the Bears floundering on the wrong side of the bubble
unbelievably bad day for the entire bubble
so there were 8 spots open and 21 competing for them heading into last night games.
of the 8 teams projected for the spots thus far they have gone 1-2 with NC State and SMU losing while VCU won
of the 13 teams projected out of the field thus far they have gone 3-7 with the 3 wins being schools very far out such as Boise State, Stanford and San Diego State.
bubble schools currently 4-9
Auburn can grab the biggest prize today if they win at Alabama. USC can be right there if they beat UCLA. Oklahoma not in particular good shape even with a win at Texas at least stays in consideration
Utah State wraps up the regular season MWC title by beating New Mexico 94-90...Lobos are in serious trouble right now.
Another bubble goes down...California beaten at Wake and the Bears floundering on the wrong side of the bubble
unbelievably bad day for the entire bubble
so there were 8 spots open and 21 competing for them heading into last night games.
of the 8 teams projected for the spots thus far they have gone 1-2 with NC State and SMU losing while VCU won
of the 13 teams projected out of the field thus far they have gone 3-7 with the 3 wins being schools very far out such as Boise State, Stanford and San Diego State.
bubble schools currently 4-9
Auburn can grab the biggest prize today if they win at Alabama. USC can be right there if they beat UCLA. Oklahoma not in particular good shape even with a win at Texas at least stays in consideration
Texas A&M has crept back in it after being down early at LSU but are still down 38-33 at halftime.
For the Aggies, it is all house money… A first year coach who came in in mid April with one player left after buzz left for Maryland… A fun team to watch who lives and dies by the three; cardiac
Added bonus…it would piss daddy-o pearl that baby pearl killed his team
Question: do you still have Kentucky as a seven seed?
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Auburn drops to 16-15. It would historic to get in with 16 losses. I will say the bubble is tragic right now that 18-16 could get them in.