Bacatology 3/2 NCAA Tourney Bracket Analysis

[bac2therac]

a look at tonight

Indiana is my last team out. Can possibly move back into the field with a win over Minnesota. A loss would be pretty devestating for their at large hopes.

Texas who is thisclose to being a lock will be come a lock if they can win at Arkansas.

SMUhas dropped into my last 4 in grouping and is facing a critical matchup with Miami that they really need to win to have some breathing room

California cannot afford to lose a Q3 road game to Georgia Tech the worst power 5 in all of college basketball and still maintain a legit shot at an at large

Ohio State would do themselves well to win at Penn State to keep them above the last 4 in.

Stanford's flickering torch would be extinguished if they cannot win at Notre Dame

New Mexico will move into a tie with Utah State for first place in MWC with a win over Colorado State. Technically New Mexico becomes the AQ and Utahl State falls into the at large pool. The two will meet at Utah State this weekend. A loss could but not necessarily move the Lobos out of the field.

USC absolutely needs to beat Washington to stop the bleeding on their resume and stay alive for an at large bid.

 

[UofMbasketball]

Indiana wins by 30. Going to be a big efficiency jump

 

[bac2therac]

Indiana wins by 30. Going to be a big efficiency jump

Yup. Likely back in field. I hate putting VCU in so.

Ohio State throttling Penn State so there metrics will take a leap.

SMU loses to Miami and they are in a scary spot going forward

 

[bac2therac]

Meanwhile Northwestern up on Purdue 34-25 at half!

 

[bac2therac]

Texas falls to Arkansas by 20. Horns still on the good side of the bubble but they might not want to find out what happens if they don't beat Oklahoma on Saturday

Ohio State routs Penn State 94-62 and will score major metric points

California avoids disaster by winning at Georgia Tech to remain just outside the current field

 

[G- RUnit]

Texas falls to Arkansas by 20. Horns still on the good side of the bubble but they might not want to find out what happens if they don't beat Oklahoma on Saturday

Ohio State routs Penn State 94-62 and will score major metric points

California avoids disaster by winning at Georgia Tech to remain just outside the current field

Cynic in me notes a lessor Texas team got in last year. Think they are okay.

 

[bac2therac]

Northwestern up 66-65 with 1 minute to go

 

[bac2therac]

Northwestern blew it

 

[G- RUnit]

Begs the question who is Purdue?

Are they the team that had a magnificent comeback and almost beat Houston in the Dance last year?

Or are they the team that fell too far behind Houston last year and couldn’t recover?

 

[shields]

Cox was the reason they won.

 

[bac2therac]

Begs the question who is Purdue?

Are they the team that had a magnificent comeback and almost beat Houston in the Dance last year?

Or are they the team that fell too far behind Houston last year and couldn’t recover?

Begs the question who is Purdue?

Are they the team that had a magnificent comeback and almost beat Houston in the Dance last year?

Or are they the team that fell too far behind Houston last year and couldn’t recover?

likely the team they have been for years. When kicking on all cylinders they can beat anyone but prone to droughts and vulnerable to be picked off by any Ncaa team no matter what the seed. Got by Northwestern because the Cats just are not very good and folded iin crunch time but there will be teams that put up more resistant in the tourney. They will get by their first game as a 3 seed against weak 14s but up against a possibly 6 or even 11 it wouldnt be surprising to get picked off

 

[bac2therac]

recapping the late games...

Stanford wins at Notre Dame to at least stay in the board albeit longshot chances. WAB up to 56 and season finale at North Carolina State is a golden opportunity to strengthen their case, without that they will need to win the ACC tournament

USC falls at Washington, its just a Q1 road loss so really didnt ding their metrics that much but the issue is its their 6th in a row so the resume/metric drop as happened over time. they do not pass the eye test and without their leading scorer the committee is going to pass them up easy. Yet I will say their SOR/WAB at 51/50 is in range. A home finale vs UCLA remains and a loss there will officially extinguish their chances

Well New Mexico not only pissed away a chance to move into a tie with Utah State for first in the MWC, they also did major damage by losing a Q3 game to surging Colorado State. This becomes the Lobos 2nd Q3 loss but more startling was a big drop in the SOR/WAB to 55/51..overall its signifcantly behind the other bubbles. Prior to the game it was in the mid to upper 40s right around the cut line. Lobos now have SIX losses to non NCAA schools including being swept by Boise State and that other Q3 loss to New Mexico State could be unforgivable. 2-2 vs field and here is the issue...wins over just in bubbles VCU and Santa Clara by 27! But both those schools have better metrics at this point. Going to be tough for New Mexico to undo that damage. Now they finish at Utah State where a win there would move them back into a tie with the Aggies but the tiebreaker on that is to be determined. The Lobos may or may not become the MW AQ. If not that win MIGHT be enough to move them back into the field but as of this morning I am moving them out.

Indiana 18-12 is getting moved back in. SOR/WAB 46/48 right at the cut line. 2-10, 5-12, 11-12 in the Quads are not great numbers but still a clean profile with no bad losses. 10 of 12 losses are to Quad 1A schools. 3 wins vs the field: Purdue, at UCLA, Wisconsin. Obviously the game at Ohio State is huge to keep them in the field.

SMU's 19-11 loss last night dipped them to 47/46 so for me I am firm on them being in that last 4 in grouping. 3 wins vs the field: North Carolina, Louisville, neutral site Texas A&M. Compared to Indiana perhaps a tad less quality wins. Do not have a true quality road win their best just Q1 Wake Forest. Have lost to 4 non tourney schools. 4-8, 8-11, 12-11 in the Quads. A Quad 1 road game at 74 Florida State up next is almost a must win for them to remain in the field.. Even with the win, they still remain somewhat vulnerable to bid stealers and those on the wrong side of the bubble making a push

full seed update later


FIRST FOUR BYES: TCU, TEXAS, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, INDIANA, SANTA CLARA, SMU

FIRST 4 OUT: AUBURN, CALIFORNIA, VIRGINIA TECH, NEW MEXICO

NEXT 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, SETON HALL, CINCINNATI, USC

ON DECK: STANFORD, SAN DIEGO STATE, ARIZONA STATE, OKLAHOMA, BOISE STATE

 

[bac2therac]

Update

ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Connecticut*

TWO SEEDS: Florida*, Michigan State, Houston, Illinois

THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Purdue, Nebraska, Kansas

FOUR SEEDS: Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga*, Alabama

FIVE SEEDS: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Saint John's

SIX SEEDS: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Louisville, Saint Mary's

SEVEN SEEDS: Kentucky, BYU, Saint Louis*, Villanova

EIGHT SEEDS: Miami (Fla), Georgia, Utah State*, UCLA

NINE SEEDS: Iowa, Clemson, Central Florida, Missouri

TEN SEEDS: North Carolina State, TCU. Miami (Ohio)*, Texas

ELEVEN SEEDS: Ohio State, Texas A&M, SMU/VCU, Santa Clara/Indiana

TWELVE SEEDS: South Florida*, Belmont*, Yale*, Liberty*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Stephen F Austin*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, High Point*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Navy*, Troy*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Arkansas*, Portland State*, East Tennessee State*, Wright State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Merrimack*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*/Bethune Cookman*, Long Island*/Howard*


FIRST FOUR BYES: TCU, TEXAS, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, INDIANA, SANTA CLARA, SMU

FIRST 4 OUT: AUBURN, CALIFORNIA, VIRGINIA TECH, NEW MEXICO

NEXT 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, SETON HALL, CINCINNATI, USC

ON DECK: STANFORD, SAN DIEGO STATE, ARIZONA STATE, OKLAHOMA, BOISE STATE

 

[bac2therac]

Not much action last night beyond low and mid major conference tourney play. Iowa will remain a 9 seed after a close loss to Michigan

a look at tonight

Seton Hall can legitimately throw their hat in the ring for a bid if they can take down St Johns. SOR/WAB at 48/54 is inching closer but still short without this win. A pathethic 1-4 in Quad 1 games due to a weak Big East and very weak non conference sos of 290. Their sole win is neutral site over a projected 9/10 seed North Carolina State. If they cannot defeat St Johns, they will simply have to win the Big East tournament.

Miami (Ohio) travels to Ohio, one win away from an undefeated regular season which puts them as a virtual lock for an at large no matter what happens in the MAC tourney.

VCU faces a dangerous Q1 road trip to Dayton. A paltry 1-4 vs Q1 and pathetic 4-7 vs Q2 they really really need this win to stay in the field. SOR/WAB at 44/45 is just above the cut line.

San Diego State absolutely must win at home over UNLV to keep their longshot at large hopes alive heading into the Mountain West tournament

 

[bac2therac]

Top seed and regular season champ Belmont absolutely hammered by 8th seed Drake 100-79 in the Missouri Valley Conference quarterfinals. Belmont at 25-6 has no at large path

 

[Anon1754923206]

vcu wins…

 

[G- RUnit]

Wonder if better for Miami of Ohio to
lose and become a two bid league with Akron?

 

[bac2therac]

100 all with 40 seconds left

Insane atmosphere

 

[bac2therac]

Wonder if better for Miami of Ohio to
lose and become a two bid league with Akron?

Some say a 2 loss Miami will not get a bid so no

 

[bac2therac]

Wolf with rebound off Ohio miss and we go to overtime

 

[bac2therac]

Miami leads 107-106 with 1:05 left and the ball.

Wolf has fouled out

 

[bac2therac]

Miami 109 Ohio 108...Ohio with ball 12.6 sec left

 

[bac2therac]

Miami wins 110-108!

Wow unbelievable grit and resilience in jacked environment and pressure

PERFECT!

31-0

 

[Rutgers25]

Classless Miami Ohio team taunting fans.

 

[bac2therac]

Classless Miami Ohio team taunting fans.

Meh...im sure they endured alot classless remarks

 

[CollegeSenior]

Meh...im sure they endured alot classless remarks

The home fans were called out twice for throwing things onto the court

 

[bac2therac]

VCU wins at Dayton to score their 2nd Q1 win albeit vs a non ncaa team. Lets see what the numbers look like tomorrow.

SHU bubble bursts with a loss to St Johns. Just not enough on this resume to make a case

Miami undefeated season is now a lock no matter what happens in MAC tourney.

West Virginia did beat UCF but that will not that put the Mountaineers in the first 8 out. Another puzzling loss for UCF and seeding once considered an 8 might be down to 10 or even 11.

Caleb Wilson now ruled out for the season for North Carolina so seeding questions may arise. Maybe still a 5 but could be dinged to 6.

 

[UofMbasketball]

Miami is a good story for sure but man these guys are really bad. They were extremely lucky to win @ Ohio, which is 12 spots away from being Q4. Their efficiency marks continues to fall, now at Kenpom of 90. It would be bad to put them anywhere but in the first 4 of the 11 seeds if they lose in the conference tournament. Sorry to their fans but literally every team is praying to face them in the first round. If they manage to win the tournament, I would "bump" them to a 12 seed.

In my eyes their record is 1-0. They have 1 Q2 win and even that one is Q2B

 

[BigEastPhil]

VCU wins at Dayton to score their 2nd Q1 win albeit vs a non ncaa team. Lets see what the numbers look like tomorrow.

SHU bubble bursts with a loss to St Johns. Just not enough on this resume to make a case

Miami undefeated season is now a lock no matter what happens in MAC tourney.

West Virginia did beat UCF but that will not that put the Mountaineers in the first 8 out. Another puzzling loss for UCF and seeding once considered an 8 might be down to 10 or even 11.

Caleb Wilson now ruled out for the season for North Carolina so seeding questions may arise. Maybe still a 5 but could be dinged to 6.

Happy for Miami of Ohio.

Regardless of how weak their schedule is - going undefeated is a big accomplishment!

If they lose in MAC Tourney - do they have the resume to avoid Dayton ? Or does it depend on what round they lose in MAC tourney?

 

[bac2therac]

Miami is a good story for sure but man these guys are really bad. They were extremely lucky to win @ Ohio, which is 12 spots away from being Q4. Their efficiency marks continues to fall, now at Kenpom of 90. It would be bad to put them anywhere but in the first 4 of the 11 seeds if they lose in the conference tournament. Sorry to their fans but literally every team is praying to face them in the first round. If they manage to win the tournament, I would "bump" them to a 12 seed.

In my eyes their record is 1-0. They have 1 Q2 win and even that one is Q2B

There are NCAA tourney at larges with Quad 3 and 4 losses

They are no worse than any other 10-12 seed and their WAB is 30.

No shame in their gutsy performance last night in a hostile environment

 

[bac2therac]

Happy for Miami of Ohio.

Regardless of how weak their schedule is - going undefeated is a big accomplishment!

If they lose in MAC Tourney - do they have the resume to avoid Dayton ? Or does it depend on what round they lose in MAC tourney?

If they lose to Akron in finals I think they should avoid Dayton. Anywhere else they run the risk. Especially since NCAA may want to showcase. Then again they would play a "home" game basically

 

[CollegeSenior]

Happy for Miami of Ohio.

Regardless of how weak their schedule is - going undefeated is a big accomplishment!

If they lose in MAC Tourney - do they have the resume to avoid Dayton ? Or does it depend on what round they lose in MAC tourney?

Regarding MU’s schedule: One of the announcers last night said that he’s seen the evidence that MU reached out to 78 mid and high majors offering to play at the opponent’s home court. None accepted.

 

[CollegeSenior]

Miami is a good story for sure but man these guys are really bad. They were extremely lucky to win @ Ohio, which is 12 spots away from being Q4. Their efficiency marks continues to fall, now at Kenpom of 90. It would be bad to put them anywhere but in the first 4 of the 11 seeds if they lose in the conference tournament. Sorry to their fans but literally every team is praying to face them in the first round. If they manage to win the tournament, I would "bump" them to a 12 seed.

In my eyes their record is 1-0. They have 1 Q2 win and even that one is Q2B

Really bad? That’s a stretch. They are ranked # 19. They do have a bad habit of letting teams back into games instead of putting them away and they did it again last night with stupid technical and flagrant fouls.

 

[bac2therac]

So some numbers this morning for SOR/WAB

Miami (Ohio) held at 21/30
UCF fell to 39/39
VCU improved to 42/44
SHU fell to 51/57
San Diego State down to 61/54
Belmont plummets to 63/62
West Virginia still languishing 66/67

 

[Anon1754923206]

Bruce Pearl can suck it!

 

[bac2therac]

Update

ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Connecticut*

TWO SEEDS: Florida*, Michigan State, Houston, Illinois

THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Purdue, Nebraska, Kansas

FOUR SEEDS: Virginia, Texas Tech, Gonzaga*, Alabama

FIVE SEEDS: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Saint John's

SIX SEEDS: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Louisville, Saint Mary's

SEVEN SEEDS: Kentucky, BYU, Saint Louis*, Villanova

EIGHT SEEDS: Miami (Fla), Georgia, Utah State*, UCLA

NINE SEEDS: Iowa, Clemson , Missouri, TCU

TEN SEEDS: Miami (Ohio)*, Central Florida, North Carolina State, Texas

ELEVEN SEEDS: Ohio State, Texas A&M, SMU/Indiana, Santa Clara/VCU

TWELVE SEEDS: South Florida*, Yale*, Liberty*, Stephen F Austin*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State, High Point*, UNC Wilmington*, Bradley*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Navy*, Troy*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Arkansas*, Portland State*, East Tennessee State*, Wright State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Merrimack*, Tennessee State*, UMBC*/Bethune Cookman*, Long Island*/Howard*


FIRST FOUR BYES: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, TEXAS, OHIO STATE, TEXAS A&M

LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, SANTA CLARA, SMU

FIRST 4 OUT: AUBURN, CALIFORNIA, VIRGINIA TECH, NEW MEXICO

NEXT 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, CINCINNATI, USC, SAN DIEGO STATE

ON DECK: SETON HALL, STANFORD, ARIZONA STATE, OKLAHOMA, BOISE STATE

 

[UofMbasketball]

Really bad? That’s a stretch. They are ranked # 19. They do have a bad habit of letting teams back into games instead of putting them away and they did it again last night with stupid technical and flagrant fouls.

Ohio is the 228th ranked team. Miami only has 1 game against a team ranked better than 137. They somehow still have 4 OT games and 9 games that went to OT or were decided by 3 or less.

The SEC combined does not have a loss to a Q4 game. The only team in the top 40 that has a loss to a Q4 is NC State. The rest of the top 40 are 238/239. In my eyes, Miami has 16 Q4 games and 3 non-DI games that are complete filler.

You're left a real resume with 11-0 with Q3 and 1-0 with Q2.

I don't mind them getting a 11 seed non-Dayton if they really do win the tournament too but every single team around them is going to be praying their *** off to face them.

 

[bac2therac]

previewing a big day of action today....

Oklahoma State might make a meteoric jump in the bubble pecking order if they can knock off Houston. Despite a terrible NET at 80, their SOR/WAB at 52 is starting to get within range, a 6th win vs the field (6-7) and their 3rd Q1 win while evening their Q1/2/3 mark to 12-12 could put them right on the cut line. A loss means that nothing short of a Big 12 tourney final appearance will get them in

Virginia Tech may actually move into the field if they can win at Virginia giving them a much needed signature win. SOR/WAB right below the cutline at 49. A loss leaves them on the outside hoping they can have a deep run in the ACC tourney and that is if the committee is even paying attention at that point.

Arizona State can move very close to the cut line but still short of vaulting in, if they can get a massive Q1 road win at Iowa State. Sun Devils are currently 4-8 vs the field but have a Q4 home loss to Oregon State that is dragging their numbers down. NET at 66, SOR/WAB at 62/59, A loss eliminates them from any at large contention

Cincinnati has an opportunity to possibly play their way right to the cutline with a win at TCU today. A late season rush with wins in 7 of last 8 pushing their NET to 45 but SOR/WAB lagging at 56. A win puts them 5-8 vs the field. A loss will not totally eliminate them but might need a run to the Big 12 finals to have a legit shot

SMU cannot afford to lose at Florida State. Mustangs sagging all around and SOR/WAB down to 47/46. Even a win will not lock them in but a loss could knock them out for now depending on action around the bubble.

Stanford absolutely must win at North Carolina State to remain in longshot contention but with 3 Quad 3 losses on the profile, their fate may be a foregone conclusion. North Carolina State will lock into the field with a victory but I will note that they have slipped into the first 4 byes and a loss here could put them vulnerable to a further fall into last 4 in/last 2 out. SOR/WAB has slipped to 44/40.

New Mexico with a win at Utah State can earn at least a share of MWC regular season title and possibly the AQ heading into the conference tournament which would send the Aggies into the at large pool. Aggies would appear to be just safe enough barely for an at large. With a loss the Lobos are clearly out and would probably have to win the MWC tourney to get a bid. SOR/WAB cut below at 54/51

Any very longshot hopes for Boise State would burst with a loss at Colorado State. WAB at 58 but 73 for SOR plus 7 losses to non tourney teams and 1 to a D2.yeah good luck

Indiana travels to Ohio State for a massive bubble game. The thinking is Ohio State could sustain the loss and still be on the right side of the bubble given their overall clean resume and SOR/WAB at 38. A win would lock them in. Much more on the line for Indiana with their SOR/WAB of 46/48 and paltry 2 Q1 wins and 5-12 in Q1/2. They need this win to stay in the field but not a win that would lock them in.

Texas A&M is on the first bye list but cannot afford a loss at LSU at this juncture which could drop them back to last 4 in line. A win would lock them in. SOR/WAB at 37/41

Auburn at 16-14 will move into the field if they can score a massive high end Q1 road win at Alabama. SOR/WAB are actually just inside the cut line at 45 and 6-11 vs field including a win at Florida is enormous. but the 10-14 Q1/2/3 mark is rough. Getting to 3 games above .500 means they will be no worse than 17-15 and that is key because a 16 loss school will not be getting an at large. So a loss here have they move behind last 4 out.

Texas can lock up a bid with a win over Oklahoma. SOR/WAB at 40-42 and 7 Q1 wins plus 6-10 is enough but losing today would put them at 10-13 in Q1/2/3 which raises a red flag and may drop them into the vulnerable last 4 in grouping

Morehead State meets up with regular season champ Tennessee State as the first NCAA bid is handed out in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship

USC must win at home over UCLA to stop the bleeding on their resume. Without their best player going forward it may be a futile exercise but I will say a win may help their SOR/WAB which isnt that far off at 50 despite a net of 68. It would put be a 9th Q2 win albeit just 1 Q1 win putting the Q1/2 mark at 10-11 and Q1/2/3 mark to 15-12 which are pretty good marks for a bubble team

 

[bac2therac]

Ohio is the 228th ranked team. Miami only has 1 game against a team ranked better than 137. They somehow still have 4 OT games and 9 games that went to OT or were decided by 3 or less.

The SEC combined does not have a loss to a Q4 game. The only team in the top 40 that has a loss to a Q4 is NC State. The rest of the top 40 are 238/239. In my eyes, Miami has 16 Q4 games and 3 non-DI games that are complete filler.

You're left a real resume with 11-0 with Q3 and 1-0 with Q2.

I don't mind them getting a 11 seed non-Dayton if they really do win the tournament too but every single team around them is going to be praying their *** off to face them.

Ohio is the 228th ranked team. Miami only has 1 game against a team ranked better than 137. They somehow still have 4 OT games and 9 games that went to OT or were decided by 3 or less.

The SEC combined does not have a loss to a Q4 game. The only team in the top 40 that has a loss to a Q4 is NC State. The rest of the top 40 are 238/239. In my eyes, Miami has 16 Q4 games and 3 non-DI games that are complete filler.

You're left a real resume with 11-0 with Q3 and 1-0 with Q2.

I don't mind them getting a 11 seed non-Dayton if they really do win the tournament too but every single team around them is going to be praying their *** off to face them.

31-0

plenty of schools have Q3 losses and some Q4

the hate for this team is unreal and makes no sense. People should be celebrating this story. Last night was an incredible if you are a fan of the sport and heart pounding edge of your seat stuff which is missing out in world of overpaid players dribbling a ball going from school to school looking for their biggest bag

 

[CollegeSenior]

Ohio is the 228th ranked team. Miami only has 1 game against a team ranked better than 137. They somehow still have 4 OT games and 9 games that went to OT or were decided by 3 or less.

The SEC combined does not have a loss to a Q4 game. The only team in the top 40 that has a loss to a Q4 is NC State. The rest of the top 40 are 238/239. In my eyes, Miami has 16 Q4 games and 3 non-DI games that are complete filler.

You're left a real resume with 11-0 with Q3 and 1-0 with Q2.

I don't mind them getting a 11 seed non-Dayton if they really do win the tournament too but every single team around them is going to be praying their *** off to face them.

None of the big boys accepted a request to play Miami. Nobody can fault them now for their SOS. They won all the games they played. Too often they let weaker teams hang around but they found all the ways to end up winning.

Your opinion that they are “really bad”’isn’t shared by the poll voters and won’t be shared by the selection committee.