The economy

Dadar

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Looking for a conservative target in the 87 to 90 range. Just carrying 2 contracts on mcl currently
 

Dadar

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Does anyone believe the 30 day opening time period for Russia to sell crude at elevated prices will close?
 
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fatpiggy

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Oil up to 85 and ES only -20 points? That won’t last.
Oil comes back down or the market tanks. Pick your choice
 

Dadar

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Took the 85.6 on mcl and closed the 2 contracts into the London break at 7:00 ET. Probably done for the day. The time change this weekend will require some adjustments. Still believe close to 100 will play. The 25,000 tether on NQ and index strikes has to adjust and the monthly jobs report at 8:30 will get short term volatility to produce some price and time opportunity before crude oil takes the reins. The next key time is close to each side near 10 ET giving time to pull the arbitrage between the underlying equities and the futures back into neutral. Also, 10 ET relates to some London expirations i have forgotten. I believe it is currency related.
 
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Dadar

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FWIW, the 87 to 90 conservative target was based on a 1.618 expansion from a consolidation area and the 2.168 should hit near 100
 

kidmike41

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The daily cost of this war, and any war, are ginormous. Just the munitions cost is ginormous. But it is really hard to quantify the exact cost, or even a rough cost. I've heard the number $1 billion a day tossed around a lot, but Rep. Jason Crow said earlier today that it's $2 billion a day. Who knows? Al I know for sure is that the cost is huge. Yuge, even. We should be endeavoring to look for an expeditious an end to this as soon as possible.
We should be looking for a way to pay for this. Do we get Iranian oil proceeds after this is over? That is what a real business man would do!
 

Dadar

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We should be looking for a way to pay for this. Do we get Iranian oil proceeds after this is over? That is what a real business man would do!
It will probably be bundled with the DOGE and tarriff checks into the mid term elections with treasury cranking out fiat dollars. Lol, brought to mind Buffet talking about bitcoin producing baby bitcoins
 
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kidmike41

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It will probably be bundled with the DOGE and tarriff checks into the mid term elections with treasury cranking out fiat dollars. Lol, brought to mind Buffet talking about bitcoin producing baby bitcoins
 

Dadar

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The escort and insurance talk was a bunch of word salad without details or a plan from what I heard yesterday.

The escort logistics in the Strait of Hormouz just does not seem feasible for the location and with what I believe to be the available resources for shipping. Maybe it will surprise me

It will be interesting to see how this administration attempts to intervene in crude other than through the futures market. Just for thought
 
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MTTiger19

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The daily cost of this war, and any war, are ginormous. Just the munitions cost is ginormous. But it is really hard to quantify the exact cost, or even a rough cost. I've heard the number $1 billion a day tossed around a lot, but Rep. Jason Crow said earlier today that it's $2 billion a day. Who knows? Al I know for sure is that the cost is huge. Yuge, even. We should be endeavoring to look for an expeditious an end to this as soon as possible.
Chump change. Are you concerned with the $9.5 billion spent daily on entitlements? For those keeping score it was about $2.3 billion per day in 2000, we’ve managed to 4x that. But Epstein and Iran right?

“Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye? How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ when all the time there is a plank in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye.”
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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You can bet your bottom dollar they will get the strait open.

If they don't the world economy collapses. It may be a rough couple weeks, but they (Everyone minus Iran) will be using everything under their power to keep it open.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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The daily cost of this war, and any war, are ginormous. Just the munitions cost is ginormous. But it is really hard to quantify the exact cost, or even a rough cost. I've heard the number $1 billion a day tossed around a lot, but Rep. Jason Crow said earlier today that it's $2 billion a day. Who knows? Al I know for sure is that the cost is huge. Yuge, even. We should be endeavoring to look for an expeditious an end to this as soon as possible.
While all of this is true, and i definitely agree with you, we must also consider that historically war has been good for the economy.
 

Dadar

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You can bet your bottom dollar they will get the straight open.

If they don't the world economy collapses. It may be a rough couple weeks, but they (Everyone minus Iran) will be using everything under their power to keep it open.
Time seems rather critical to not get into credit defaults? If a plan is not presented with substance out of the weekend there will be multiple time and price opportunities next week on a broad spectrum of futures products. Again, the end of quarter expirations are approaching Mar 20
 
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fatpiggy

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Time seems rather critical to not get into credit defaults? If a plan is not presented with substance out of the weekend there will be multiple time and price opportunities next week on a broad spectrum of futures products. Again, the end of quarter expirations are approaching Mar 20
Opportunity is abound in these markets.


Jobs number comes in pretty bad. Unemployment rate coming in at 4.4%. -90,000 jobs

Market sold off, but not quite as much as i would have expected. Maybe a bad jobs number gives the fed some hesitation to raise rates or even to hold them. Maybe it gives them a window to cut.

But as you said earlier, jobs number will be forgotten in about 5 minutes and its back to oil.
 

Dadar

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NQ march is approaching a 0.618 at 24,690 back at 24,350 into the 9:30 RTH. Also the 200 daily ema is lurking in the 24,530 area just under the 0.786 at 24,542
 
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kidmike41

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Chump change. Are you concerned with the $9.5 billion spent daily on entitlements? For those keeping score it was about $2.3 billion per day in 2000, we’ve managed to 4x that. But Epstein and Iran right?

“Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye? How can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ when all the time there is a plank in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye.”
I am concerned about both. Balance the budget!
 
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Dadar

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Apologies for typing on a new phone that is currently really sensitive to fat fingers and poor eyesight
 

Dadar

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Will be interesting to see how the dip buyers on the opening gap down plays today
 
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Dadar

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NQ is still caught within a giant trading range between 26,645 the past October and narrowing between from the 24,150 low from last November

Also, there is another level 1.618 projection out of the consolidation pattern at 98.35 for the CL march contract that is consolidating into a coil at the short term lower level 1.618 at 87.65 going into the RTH (regular trading hours) from globex fwiw
 
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fatpiggy

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Trump breaking with his own administration?


Republicans have always said that they wanted legal immigration that works to our advantage. Not unfettered immigration that overwhelms our communities.

You are right that his base will probably be a little upset about it, but the reasonable ones will understand this is always where we wanted to be. The Art of The Deal type of thing.

Reform immigration so that the system works positively for Americans.
 
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PawPride

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Republicans have always said that they wanted legal immigration that works to our advantage. Not unfettered immigration that overwhelms our communities.

You are right that his base will probably be a little upset about it, but the reasonable ones will understand this is always where we wanted to be. The Art of The Deal type of thing.

Reform immigration so that the system works positively for Americans.
My guy, there have been dozens of posts on here from non-MAGA Republicans and those on the left saying the same **** Trump did in that video and all the MAGAs jumped on them.
 

MTTiger19

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I am concerned about both. Balance the budget!
Of course. But the problem remains that entitled people will vote for the people that entitle them. There is no balancing a budget when you’re taking from producers and giving to non-producers. It throws off most economic principles. When tax increases, wage stagnation and price inflation don’t concern half the voters because they’re not contributing you have a major problem. They’re going to vote for self preservation and in this case that’s the political party giving out free stuff. NYC’s mayoral election was a perfect example of this.
 

Dadar

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Republicans have always said that they wanted legal immigration that works to our advantage. Not unfettered immigration that overwhelms our communities.

You are right that his base will probably be a little upset about it, but the reasonable ones will understand this is always where we wanted to be. The Art of The Deal type of thing.

Reform immigration so that the system works positively for Americans.
I have a difficult time having any faith in trump to act in any way that does not prioritize his singular personal benefit
 
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Dadar

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The dollar index is between 99 and 100 shifting to petrodollars, gold is staying relatively flat priced into the USD. Still watching 10 ET
 

dpic73

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Jul 27, 2005
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TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!

He has totally effed up the economy
Most Americans have lost their rights
We no longer have a democracy
The country will never recover
"The roaring economy is roaring like never before." —Donald Trump, last ******* week.


> Oil prices surge as the Strait of Hormuz slows to a halt
> 92,000 jobs unexpectedly lost in February
> Market shock as a result of prior points
> Easing sanctions on Russian oil…
> only to learn that Russia is helping fund Iran
 

Dadar

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Posted in the wrong thread

Sit, sit, sit here. Maybe a hit back at yesterdays closing VWAP and the opening RTH price gap sometime after noon ET. CL is in consolidation between 89.62 and 87.65 on top of the earlier coil. Bigger picture NQ is still above the 200 daily close ema and under the 21, 50 and 100 spaghetti tangle with the 21 on the bottom in the 25,075 area. The 200 is rising but flattening and the top 3 are in decent. Especially hard to break the 25,000 tether on a Friday, but seeing beats thinking when not in sync
 

nytigerfan

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Dec 9, 2004
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Trump breaking with his own administration?



How many more times can he flip-flop on this? Why are restaurants and farms being raided with entire workforces being rounded up and deported? Were all of those KIA workers in GA criminals?

Magas are so full of ****. (I know you are not one of them)
 
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