The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
umm, never a good idea to jump on these blips in the system.. prices will go back down and then you have to give credit to the person you previously excoriated.
did you have to look that up?
Last edited:
to be honest, not in my mind...but, the little boy that cried wolf does come to me frequently
You would. Are you familiar with the Little Rabbit Foo Foo hare today goon tomorrow story?
Long at 81?
I’d be a buyer of put spreads. Trump HAS to keep the price of oil down. There is no other choice
Note that i have been trading half on and off to lower the basis. Carrying half into globex
How is he going to do that to alleviate the global short term problem? Maybe the US supplies can be helped if he releases reserves? Do you have an immediate fix?
no, haven't heard of that one, must be a generational thing. But I looked it up and I guess the moral is not to bop creatures in the head?
Playing a short term window of opportunity with a small position because of the resistence levels here. Sometimes, time trumps price. I am sure trump will throw out plenty of word salad.
I don’t. But I know mid terms gives him an incentive to get the price down quickly! Whatever it takes.
I have not traded options in over 40 years, so I can not answer that, but the cyclical nature magnets at significant strike levels in the derivatives markets has played for many years. I hedge more through the futures and equity holdings mix.
Maybe I am not smart enough, but I always looked at options as playing against the house in general. I probably worry more about the CME data center hitting a glitch or a heating overload shut down which is a good reason to stay conservative in the number of contracts and when to go NQ vs MNQ, MGC vs 1OZ, NQ vs MNQ etc
Last edited:
Maybe I am missing something, but Russia seems like the only available short term supply source. Wonder if the ice is melting
They may be able to supplement the national cost - more national debt - but other than the US and Russia, where are there other short term supply sources?
I have to admit that you just gave me MEGO (Mine Eyes Glaze Over) Syndrome. I'm fine with legal and tax issues, but the stuff you are talking about is definitely not in my wheelhouse. Hence, my reliance on an investment advisor.
Good choice. If I was starting today, I would have to look to AI rather than trading. This is a very complicated inter connected bowl of soup
Do you remember this?
Not related today, but looking back at CL futures, during April 2020, the continuos contract cost went to minus $25 per barrel where they would pay you to take delivery. The worm turns
During the 2008 credit crisis when currencies had Saint Vitus Dance, it hit a high of $245/barrel
Last edited:
On a side note, futures contracts will roll next Friday, March 13th when liquidity shifts with a price jump on the 3 month premium over the March contracts keyed to 3 month rate run off on equity index futures or shorter durations on commodities which is the arbitrage offset to spot prices
Last edited:
Futures are priced to short term borrowing costs for the duration of the contract times. There is an arbitrage level where selling or buying the futures against the underling product is profitable.
Commercial buyers and sellers and traders will roll over to the next trading contract at the end of the week before expirations.
Hope that helps
Who other than Russia has crude or lng readily available for export. Unless Ukraine blows up a bunch of tankers which won't sit well with countries strangled by an energy shortage
This currently just looks like a huge cluster xxxx to me relative to crude. Crude oil is such a critical element of the global economy in countless areas
From Dune. "The spice must flow"
Last edited:
That’s it I would say, unless we can increase Venezuela’s crude output. Maybe we have some LNG excess
Posted this as a response last Friday in the stock guys thread in the West Zone before the bombing started.
Monday ?????
Friday options expiration will be interesting. It will take a lot to untether NQ march from 25,000 until the weekly options expire tomorrow at 4 PM ET. Recent market action would indicate support from both sides for the strike price.
Monday ?????
The daily cost of this war, and any war, are ginormous. Just the munitions cost is ginormous. But it is really hard to quantify the exact cost, or even a rough cost. I've heard the number $1 billion a day tossed around a lot, but Rep. Jason Crow said earlier today that it's $2 billion a day. Who knows? Al I know for sure is that the cost is huge. Yuge, even. We should be endeavoring to look for an expeditious end to this as soon as possible.
Last edited: