SMU, Ohio State, and TCU can still pass Iowa just by the end of the Regular season. Biggest Metric to use is WAB or wins above Bubble. Iowa is 36th currently which would be last 9th seed. If you keep that at 40 or lower you're almost assured in. Higher in 40s you go the bigger bubble team you're. The 3 I mentioned all would pass Iowa if they win out this week and Iowa goes 0-2 which is likely. That would require each to win reasonably tough games including Tcu winning at Texas Tech. Add in a loss to a team like Oregon or worse in the B10 tournament and Santa Clara, VCU, and New Mexico could pass Iowa as well. I Think Usc, and San Diego State are probably out at this point and Iowa's well above Indiana, and Auburn. So I guess where we disagree is that I still believe SMU, Ohio State, Tcu, Santa Clara, VCU, and New Mexico can pass us. Easiest thing to do for Iowa is win 1 game. Best possibility will obviously be the B10 tournament then I'd say Iowa is close to a lock and would take a repeat of 2024 when there was 5 bid stealers in conference tournaments
ESPN Bracketology (as of Mar 14): IOWA projected as a 9 Seed. Bracket Matrix (as of Mar 13) has IOWA as a 9 seed (consensus of 121 bracketologists)
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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You’re ignoring NET and Kenpom. Those teams will not move ahead of Iowa. Just not enough time to move the needle.
Here's hoping the majority of the bracketologists are overvaluing Iowa's place in the seeding list and they are more in the (non-Dayton) 11 or 10 seed range instead of a 9.
Because they are absolutely not reaching the Sweet16 from an 8/9 starting point.
Probably aren't from a 7/10 or 6/11 starting point either, but their chances increase if are a 10 and then increase even more if a non-Dayton 11.
Because they are absolutely not reaching the Sweet16 from an 8/9 starting point.
Probably aren't from a 7/10 or 6/11 starting point either, but their chances increase if are a 10 and then increase even more if a non-Dayton 11.
Right. Im just tracking their tourney placement. The 1 and 2 seeds are just at a different level.
I just don't think they've got as much impact as WAB. If we were 28th in WAB like NET I think we'd be a lock. Be nice if Texas Tech, Alabama, Oklahoma State and Kentucky all win to tonight
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Any and all outside help provided to making sure Iowa makes the Big Dance would be very much appreciated.
I don't want to but we should begrudgingly root for the Huskers tonight too
Respectfully,I disagree.
Getting the 8 seed gives a a more beatable opponent in 1st round.
Losing in 1st round means we finish the year with a 5 game losing streak...that blunts momentum generated by making the dance in Ben's 1st year
You actually think this team can beat a 2 seed in game 2?
Going out on our shield vs zona or Duke is a good showing for 1st year coach.
We simply do not have the horses this year.
I think Indiana winning would be preferred even though they're road team. I feel pretty confident that they can't pass us in pecking order.
Of course Tcu looks poised to beat Texas Tech on the road and A&M and Georgia picked up big wins
I want the Hawks to have a shot to keep playing as long as possible.
Facing a 1-seed on the first weekend - should they advance past opening game - is not the way to see that happen.
Pretty pessimistic of someone to say the Hawks are likely to lose to a 7 or 6 in the opening round and can't really compete with any 2 or 3 seeds on the first weekend.
A 6 or 7 seed is just a spot or two off from where Iowa was sitting for most of the season. And considering they only lost by 4 @ ISU, played PU tough at their place, held their own at times vs ILL and beat NEB, I am not automatically writing the Hawks off vs a 2 or especially a 3 seed.
How about we just win 1-2 more games and not rely on other team to help us out? Beating PSU would’ve helped also.
UCF, Missouri, and CLemson all lost. But it doesn't matter who won or lost. Cake is mostly baked. 8/9 seeds before tonight will remain 8/9 seeds afterwards.
As always there are more locks than people realize and a smaller bubble than people understand. Committee won't be deliberating over 15 teams for 10 spots or anything like that. In fact, I think the locks are rising and the bubble is shrinking.
As always there are more locks than people realize and a smaller bubble than people understand. Committee won't be deliberating over 15 teams for 10 spots or anything like that. In fact, I think the locks are rising and the bubble is shrinking.
I get it. But I guess I don't understand. Are you concerned the numbers suggest a lower seed (such as Dayton) or missing the tourney altogether? Cause I just see no scenario where Iowa falls below these lower bubble teams. Doesn't add up.
SMU and TCU and even OSU aren't making those types of leaps. You don't jump 3 seed lines this late in the year. Just doesn't happen.
Again, assuming no more than a couple of bid stealers, Iowa would need to fall below OSU, IU, New Mexico, Santa Clara, and say a Cincinnati or some team like that. It's just not happening.
To avoid Dayton, Iowa would need to finish ahead of just 4 of these teams: TCU, SMU, Texas AM, UCF, Missouri, Clemson, NC State, UCLA, Texas, NC State, Georgia.
From just getting in...I think there are only 3 spots open for the following 6 teams: IU, NM, Santa Clara, SDSU, Auburn, and VCU. I don't think any other teams will merit strong consideration.
To avoid Dayton, Iowa would need to finish ahead of just 4 of these teams: TCU, SMU, Texas AM, UCF, Missouri, Clemson, NC State, UCLA, Texas, NC State, Georgia.
From just getting in...I think there are only 3 spots open for the following 6 teams: IU, NM, Santa Clara, SDSU, Auburn, and VCU. I don't think any other teams will merit strong consideration.
Soo...still the dreaded 8/9 game or maybe a 10 seed if they go 0-3? Hell at this rate we probably beat Mich or NE the way this season is going and I'll allow it...
Iowa is definitely a box of chocolates....
I guess I just do not have the faith in this group that you do coming off a dispiriting loss to last place PSU.
That said, I cannot root for them to drop these last 3 games as you prefer,apparently
I would love to see them get an upset this week or make a decent run in BTT next week to have some confidence and momentum going into dance
Go Hawks!
I think it was all #1 seeds last year.
NIL killed Cinderella. All the top shelf talent from the small conferences gets pulled away for a payday.
Who said I'd prefer them to lose ANY game??
Expecting them to lose and rooting for them to lose are two entirely different things.
Hell, if you want to really get into it, my PREFERENCE would be that Iowa sweeps their last 2 regular season games and reaches (at least) the weekend at the BTT - no matter their opponents there - and jumps up to a 7 (or 6) seed in the NCAAT.
I PREFER the Hawks win out between now and going into the Selection Show, but I EXPECT them to go 0-2 this week and win1, maybe 2, before losing next Friday to Michigan in the BTT.
Those 2 things are both possible outcomes and can coexist at the same time.
Yep. The mid majors get raided every offseason now thanks to the portal and NIL, so the talent disparity has grown wider. No reason not to expect this continue.
Ok,fair enough. We all want hawks to win every game and let the seed take care of itself
No doubt the top seeds are stronger than ever with the raiding of the weaker programs.
Iowa could play Michigan twice in a week,hopefully,to see if we can compete.
Nothing like winning a game in the dance..hope for a good matchup.
Maybe we could catch Houston on a cold nite?
Don’t you know that (to some on this board), unless you think Iowa will win every game and only say positive things, then that’s bad fan behavior and it’s destructive to the program? Shame on you!
I would really hate to lose our next 2 games heading into the B1G Tournament, which is what is expected, of course.
The B1G likely gets 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament; IOWA might be the 9th team.
Here are the current projections for the B1G Tournament:
I don't like how Ohio State has passed us up where we now would have to play on Wednesday morning.
1. Michigan (19 - 1)
2. Nebraska (15 - 5)
Above Mich St and Illinois based on round-robin record (2-1).
3. Michigan State (15 - 5)
Above Illinois and below Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Illinois (15 - 5)
Below Nebraska and Mich St based on round-robin record (1-2).
5. Purdue (14 - 6)
6. Wisconsin (13 - 7)
Above UCLA based on head-to-head record (1-0).
7. UCLA (13 - 7)
8. Ohio State (12 - 8)
9. Iowa (10 - 10)
10. Indiana (9 - 11)
Click or tap on image ONCE or TWICE for LARGER view.
The B1G likely gets 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament; IOWA might be the 9th team.
Here are the current projections for the B1G Tournament:
I don't like how Ohio State has passed us up where we now would have to play on Wednesday morning.
1. Michigan (19 - 1)
2. Nebraska (15 - 5)
Above Mich St and Illinois based on round-robin record (2-1).
3. Michigan State (15 - 5)
Above Illinois and below Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Illinois (15 - 5)
Below Nebraska and Mich St based on round-robin record (1-2).
5. Purdue (14 - 6)
6. Wisconsin (13 - 7)
Above UCLA based on head-to-head record (1-0).
7. UCLA (13 - 7)
8. Ohio State (12 - 8)
9. Iowa (10 - 10)
10. Indiana (9 - 11)
Click or tap on image ONCE or TWICE for LARGER view.
I remember a short couple of/3 weeks ago when the Hawks were dancing along the lines of maybe somehow sneaking into the 4th seed for a triple-bye - with a lot of the right breaks - and now they are looking extremely like a single-bye team and playing the very first game of the day Wednesday, at that.I would really hate to lose our next 2 games heading into the B1G Tournament, which is what is expected, of course.
The B1G likely gets 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament; IOWA might be the 9th team.
Here are the current projections for the B1G Tournament:
I don't like how Ohio State has passed us up where we now would have to play on Wednesday morning.
1. Michigan (19 - 1)
2. Nebraska (15 - 5)
Above Mich St and Illinois based on round-robin record (2-1).
3. Michigan State (15 - 5)
Above Illinois and below Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Illinois (15 - 5)
Below Nebraska and Mich St based on round-robin record (1-2).
5. Purdue (14 - 6)
6. Wisconsin (13 - 7)
Above UCLA based on head-to-head record (1-0).
7. UCLA (13 - 7)
8. Ohio State (12 - 8)
9. Iowa (10 - 10)
10. Indiana (9 - 11)
Click or tap on image ONCE or TWICE for LARGER view.
Life of a Hawkeye fan. One groin punch after another.
IF iU wins tonight they will be the 10th. More locks and a smaller/weaker bubble than people Realize. I expect Iowa to fiiiah ahead of OSU on ranking line and maybe UCLA as well.I would really hate to lose our next 2 games heading into the B1G Tournament, which is what is expected, of course.
The B1G likely gets 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament; IOWA might be the 9th team.
Here are the current projections for the B1G Tournament:
I don't like how Ohio State has passed us up where we now would have to play on Wednesday morning.
1. Michigan (19 - 1)
2. Nebraska (15 - 5)
Above Mich St and Illinois based on round-robin record (2-1).
3. Michigan State (15 - 5)
Above Illinois and below Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Illinois (15 - 5)
Below Nebraska and Mich St based on round-robin record (1-2).
5. Purdue (14 - 6)
6. Wisconsin (13 - 7)
Above UCLA based on head-to-head record (1-0).
7. UCLA (13 - 7)
8. Ohio State (12 - 8)
9. Iowa (10 - 10)
10. Indiana (9 - 11)
Click or tap on image ONCE or TWICE for LARGER view.
Myth that there is a ton of movement in and out of the field this late in the season. Probably 6 teams vying for 2-3 spots.
You are the voice of reason calming troubled waters....we need that
It’s not overly complicated once you forget about focusing on one team and rather looking at the comparisons.
these last 4 teams in and first 4 out are dreadful. Mediocre resumes.
Doesn’t matter. Texas is a lock. SMU is a lock. Ohio St is a lock. And they’re not gonna be above Iowa.
Texas is near a lock but ending season 0-2 rest of way they could slip out depending on bid stealers. SMU is firmly on bubble. They need to win at Florida State Saturday or they're looking at last in, first out. Ohio State is probably a near lock barring crazy bid stealing again.
I just think it’s much more locked in. OSU is in. Texas is in. Forget the last game of the season and the conference tournament. 1 game isn’t changing things. Look at the resumes.
Santa Clara, NM, Auburn, Cal , and VCU for the last 2 spots.
A lock to me is you can lose out, and there's no realistic results elsewhere that could take place and you not make it. These teams you're saying are locks aren't at that point. I'd be happy to take 100-1 odds for some of these teams you're locking in. The bubble will for sure shrink 1-2 spots. St. Louis, Miam ohio, and Utah State aren't all winning their conference tournaments. So probably only 1 of your final listed teams will make it and maybe not even that.
Good point. Theoretically you could have 10 bid stealers. My analysis assumes very little if any thievery. And don’t be fooled by the last game. This team wins so they are in. This team loses they are out. IU and SMU will be good examples of this.
Fair point. I think Indiana needs 2-3 more wins still to your point I think they're farther out than just beating Minnesota. SMU is playing with fire 7-11 in Quad 1/2 isn't great. WAB in high 40s after tonight. They need to beat Florida State imo or they're going to be right at cutline area