I agree it will be difficult. That said, its winnable, we just lost so the guys should (hopefully) have more focus, we are at home, and we need a good tourney win.
I like our chances!
ESPN Bracketology (as of Mar 14): IOWA projected as a 9 Seed. Bracket Matrix (as of Mar 13) has IOWA as a 9 seed (consensus of 121 bracketologists)
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
I like our chances!
No, I don't think playing a 7 seed vs an 8 seed is vastly different. That said, getting an 8/9 seed, then having to play the 1 seed if they win, is a very different story. So, your path to move forward becomes VERY difficult as an 8/9.
Ben McCollum says that when trying to make the NCAA Tournament,
“You have to be careful to make sure that you don’t create a level of fear of failure.”
How does he approach doing that?
“You try to succeed. You put your focus on succeeding, not on 'You can’t lose this.' It's, 'You need to win this.' Or, 'You need to perform at this level.'
And so, I think a lot of people say, ‘Don’t lose.’ It should be more, ‘Go win.’ There’s a big difference between the two. And so, making sure that you come in with a positive mindset is a big deal for us.”
“You have to be careful to make sure that you don’t create a level of fear of failure.”
How does he approach doing that?
“You try to succeed. You put your focus on succeeding, not on 'You can’t lose this.' It's, 'You need to win this.' Or, 'You need to perform at this level.'
And so, I think a lot of people say, ‘Don’t lose.’ It should be more, ‘Go win.’ There’s a big difference between the two. And so, making sure that you come in with a positive mindset is a big deal for us.”
Indiana losing at home to Northwestern is big. USC also lost to UCLA on the road. Those are two fellow teams in the 7-11 seed range that are probably further down the selection order than Iowa.
That's a dagger for Indiana, a really bad loss at home. They had better be careful and might find themselves on the outs...
Iowa won’t fall below IU. And IU will still make it. Thats how weak the field is. IUs wins over Purdue and Wisky will pay dividends.
Indiana still has Sparty, Gophers and OSU...maybe OSU can drop a game to us tonight and then beat Indiana to make the field. Gotta get off that 8/9 Iowa, I'd say beat OSU, beat PSU and 1 game in the BTT should do it..no?
A 7 seed?
Like Ben said, "Bottle it up and play like that again."
As of this morning:
9.2 expected bids; 8.2 at-large
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
After a stretch of three losses in four games, Iowa rebounded with a big statement win while hosting Ohio State on Wednesday. Now the Hawkeyes' at-large chances sit around 98%, a strong position to be in. Their résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally -- in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings -- so their tournament hopes are in good shape. Their remaining schedule won't be easy; after Saturday's trip to Penn State, they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska. But they shouldn't need either of those upsets to round out their résumé.
Next game: at Penn State (Saturday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:53 a.m.
After consecutive losses on their Michigan tour halted their momentum -- five wins in six games -- the Bruins have bounced back. On Saturday, they beat visiting No. 10 Illinois in overtime on Donovan Dent's coast-to-coast layup, then took down crosstown bubble rival USC by 19 behind Dent's 30 points on Tuesday. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins on the season (two Q1-A) and their résumé ranks borderline top 40 nationally, converging with a predictive rating that has been better than their résumé indicated for most of the year. Even if the Big Ten gets only nine bids, the Bruins would appear to be in line for one of the last of those -- they rank eighth on the conference's résumé list -- and their consensus at-large odds are now 91% in the forecast models.
Next game: at Minnesota (Saturday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:10 p.m.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers' conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams -- they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what's looking like a nine-bid conference -- and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
Next game: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
When we noted that the Buckeyes needed more consistency after alternating wins and losses for so long, they were looking for a winning streak -- not the back-to-back losses they got against Michigan State and Iowa this week. Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings -- right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Q1-A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large.
Next game: vs. Purdue (Sunday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:53 a.m.
A recent three-game win streak had helped pad USC's bubble case, but losses to Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon and now bubble rival UCLA -- the latter of which saw the Bruins open up a lead near the half and pull away down the stretch -- have sliced the Trojans' at-large chances to just 20%. With the 11th-best résumé ranking in what's trending to be just a nine-bid conference, and a ranking outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, USC needs strong showings against Nebraska, Washington and UCLA again to make a case as one of the Big Ten's last entries.
Next game: vs. Nebraska (Saturday)
www.espn.com
Men's Bubble Watch: Tracking which teams will make (or miss) the NCAA tournament
9.2 expected bids; 8.2 at-large
Locks (6)
Michigan WolverinesPurdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Should be in (2)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
After a stretch of three losses in four games, Iowa rebounded with a big statement win while hosting Ohio State on Wednesday. Now the Hawkeyes' at-large chances sit around 98%, a strong position to be in. Their résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally -- in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings -- so their tournament hopes are in good shape. Their remaining schedule won't be easy; after Saturday's trip to Penn State, they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska. But they shouldn't need either of those upsets to round out their résumé.
Next game: at Penn State (Saturday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:53 a.m.
After consecutive losses on their Michigan tour halted their momentum -- five wins in six games -- the Bruins have bounced back. On Saturday, they beat visiting No. 10 Illinois in overtime on Donovan Dent's coast-to-coast layup, then took down crosstown bubble rival USC by 19 behind Dent's 30 points on Tuesday. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins on the season (two Q1-A) and their résumé ranks borderline top 40 nationally, converging with a predictive rating that has been better than their résumé indicated for most of the year. Even if the Big Ten gets only nine bids, the Bruins would appear to be in line for one of the last of those -- they rank eighth on the conference's résumé list -- and their consensus at-large odds are now 91% in the forecast models.
Next game: at Minnesota (Saturday)
Work to do (3)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 24, 9:10 p.m.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers' conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams -- they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what's looking like a nine-bid conference -- and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
Next game: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 25, 11:15 p.m.
When we noted that the Buckeyes needed more consistency after alternating wins and losses for so long, they were looking for a winning streak -- not the back-to-back losses they got against Michigan State and Iowa this week. Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings -- right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Q1-A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large.
Next game: vs. Purdue (Sunday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 25, 7:53 a.m.
A recent three-game win streak had helped pad USC's bubble case, but losses to Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon and now bubble rival UCLA -- the latter of which saw the Bruins open up a lead near the half and pull away down the stretch -- have sliced the Trojans' at-large chances to just 20%. With the 11th-best résumé ranking in what's trending to be just a nine-bid conference, and a ranking outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, USC needs strong showings against Nebraska, Washington and UCLA again to make a case as one of the Big Ten's last entries.
Next game: vs. Nebraska (Saturday)
Men's Bubble Watch: Tracking which teams will make (or miss) the NCAA tournament
The NCAA tournament at-large picture has come into clear focus. Here's the latest snapshot.
www.espn.com
February 27, 2026 Update:
9 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has #8 seed IOWA vs #9 seed UCF with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 Long Island.
Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Purdue
3 Nebraska
4 Michigan State
7 Wisconsin
8 IOWA
9 UCLA
11 Indiana (LAST TEAM IN)
Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Ohio State (3rd team OUT)
USC........................(4th team OUT)
Link to the Full Feb 27, 2026 ESPN Bracket:
Bracket Matrix (as of Feb 26) has IOWA as an 8 seed.
When the brackets from 118 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered an 8 seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
9 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has #8 seed IOWA vs #9 seed UCF with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 Long Island.
Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Purdue
3 Nebraska
4 Michigan State
7 Wisconsin
8 IOWA
9 UCLA
11 Indiana (LAST TEAM IN)
Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Ohio State (3rd team OUT)
USC........................(4th team OUT)
Link to the Full Feb 27, 2026 ESPN Bracket:
Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape
The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.
www.espn.com
Bracket Matrix (as of Feb 26) has IOWA as an 8 seed.
When the brackets from 118 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered an 8 seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
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Just going off of goof-ball Lunardi's bracketology, here's the projected 6-10 seeds and how they stack up compared to Iowa (I'll only bring in 11 seeds later if we happen to f*** around, be mental midgets, and lose to Penn State this weekend).
According to Joe Lunardi as of 2/27:
6 seeds-
Villanova (13-4, 22-6); NET- 30, SOS- 71
BYU (8-7, 20-8); NET- 21, SOS- 14
North Carolina (10-5, 22-6); NET- 27, SOS- 45
Louisville (9-6, 20-8); NET- 16, SOS- 27
7 seeds-
Utah State (13-4, 23-5); NET- 25, SOS- 89
Wisconsin (11-6, 19-9); NET- 34, SOS- 28
Kentucky (9-6, 18-10); NET- 29, SOS- 4
Saint Louis (13-2, 25-3); NET- 24, SOS- 157
8 seeds-
North Carolina State (10-5, 19-9); NET- 28, SOS- 41
Saint Mary's (15-2, 26-4); NET- 22, SOS- 105
Miami (11-4, 22-6); NET- 32, SOS- 79
Iowa (10-7, 20-8); NET- 26, SOS- 56
9 seeds-
UCF (9-6, 20-7); NET- 44, SOS- 48
Georgia (7-8, 19-9); NET- 33, SOS- 51
Clemson (10-5, 20-8); NET- 36, SOS- 70
UCLA (11-6, 19-9); NET- 37, SOS- 40
10 seeds-
Texas (8-7, 17-11); NET- 40, SOS- 15
SMU (8-7, 19-9); NET- 31, SOS- 58
Missouri (9-6, 19-9); NET- 58, SOS- 43
Texas A&M (9-6, 19-9); NET- 42, SOS- 61
According to Joe Lunardi as of 2/27:
6 seeds-
Villanova (13-4, 22-6); NET- 30, SOS- 71
BYU (8-7, 20-8); NET- 21, SOS- 14
North Carolina (10-5, 22-6); NET- 27, SOS- 45
Louisville (9-6, 20-8); NET- 16, SOS- 27
7 seeds-
Utah State (13-4, 23-5); NET- 25, SOS- 89
Wisconsin (11-6, 19-9); NET- 34, SOS- 28
Kentucky (9-6, 18-10); NET- 29, SOS- 4
Saint Louis (13-2, 25-3); NET- 24, SOS- 157
8 seeds-
North Carolina State (10-5, 19-9); NET- 28, SOS- 41
Saint Mary's (15-2, 26-4); NET- 22, SOS- 105
Miami (11-4, 22-6); NET- 32, SOS- 79
Iowa (10-7, 20-8); NET- 26, SOS- 56
9 seeds-
UCF (9-6, 20-7); NET- 44, SOS- 48
Georgia (7-8, 19-9); NET- 33, SOS- 51
Clemson (10-5, 20-8); NET- 36, SOS- 70
UCLA (11-6, 19-9); NET- 37, SOS- 40
10 seeds-
Texas (8-7, 17-11); NET- 40, SOS- 15
SMU (8-7, 19-9); NET- 31, SOS- 58
Missouri (9-6, 19-9); NET- 58, SOS- 43
Texas A&M (9-6, 19-9); NET- 42, SOS- 61
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Didn't see this posted. I keep reading Iowa is an 8/9 seed. However, I just read an article where at least one outlet currently has Iowa as a 7 seed.
www.si.com
I have no idea what is accurate, but if Iowa takes care of biz at PSU, and then plays well against Mich and Nebbie, and wins another game in the B1G tourney I could see a scenario where we get a 7 seed.
Of course, nobody on the tourney committee has asked my opinion but that is nothing new.
Iowa Sitting Pretty in Latest Bracketology
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner, and teams across the country are trying their best to get themselves in good position prior to Selection Sunday.
www.si.com
I have no idea what is accurate, but if Iowa takes care of biz at PSU, and then plays well against Mich and Nebbie, and wins another game in the B1G tourney I could see a scenario where we get a 7 seed.
Of course, nobody on the tourney committee has asked my opinion but that is nothing new.
Who knows where we'll place? If we can finish out the regular season strong and maybe win a couple in the BIG tourney then again, who knows? One game at a time and leave it all on the floor.Didn't see this posted. I keep reading Iowa is an 8/9 seed. However, I just read an article where at least one outlet currently has Iowa as a 7 seed.
Iowa Sitting Pretty in Latest Bracketology
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner, and teams across the country are trying their best to get themselves in good position prior to Selection Sunday.
I have no idea what is accurate, but if Iowa takes care of biz at PSU, and then plays well against Mich and Nebbie, and wins another game in the B1G tourney I could see a scenario where we get a 7 seed.
Of course, nobody on the tourney committee has asked my opinion but that is nothing new.
CBS had Iowa at 7 today. I was surprised until I saw 8, 9, and 10 lines. No team sticks out that should be higher than Iowa.
Yes. I’d be shocked if the final four isn’t Duke, Zona, Mich, and Florida.
Iowa still at 28 in the NET. Holding steady at an 8 seed. Probably locked into the 8/9 barring Iowa getting upsets here.
Go 0-3 to end the regular season may drop Iowa to a 10. That would actually be a benefit because right now they seem locked into the 8/9.
Last year (2025), all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four. Florida, Duke, Houston, and Auburn.
If we drop to 10, our chance of winning the 1st game plunges.
We are not capable of hanging with any #1or #2 seeds. Not worried bout second game.
If we drop to a 10 seed play, then we play a 7 seed - definitely winnable…
March 3, 2026 Update:
10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has #9 seed IOWA vs #8 seed St. Louis with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 C Arkansas.
Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
7 Wisconsin
9 IOWA
10 UCLA..................... ........ (1 of Last 4 Byes)
11 Ohio State............(1 of LAST 4 IN)
11 Indiana...................... (LAST TEAM IN)
Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
USC.................................................(5th team OUT)
Link to the March 3, 2026 ESPN Bracket:
Bracket Matrix (as of March 2) has IOWA as an 8 seed.
When the brackets from 105 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered (barely) an 8 seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has #9 seed IOWA vs #8 seed St. Louis with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 C Arkansas.
Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
7 Wisconsin
9 IOWA
10 UCLA..................... ........ (1 of Last 4 Byes)
11 Ohio State............(1 of LAST 4 IN)
11 Indiana...................... (LAST TEAM IN)
Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
USC.................................................(5th team OUT)
Link to the March 3, 2026 ESPN Bracket:
Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape
The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.
www.espn.com
Bracket Matrix (as of March 2) has IOWA as an 8 seed.
When the brackets from 105 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered (barely) an 8 seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
At this point I'm honestly kinda just hoping for a 10 seed to get off of that 8/9 line. Worked out well enough with Cincy and TN in '19.March 3, 2026 Update:
10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has #9 seed IOWA vs #8 seed St. Louis with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 C Arkansas.
Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
7 Wisconsin
9 IOWA
10 UCLA..................... ........ (1 of Last 4 Byes)
11 Ohio State............(1 of LAST 4 IN)
11 Indiana...................... (LAST TEAM IN)
Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
USC.................................................(5th team OUT)
Link to the March 3, 2026 ESPN Bracket:
Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape
The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.www.espn.com
Bracket Matrix (as of March 2) has IOWA as an 8 seed.
When the brackets from 105 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered (barely) an 8 seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
I might even prefer 11 if it's not of the Dayton Variety. Feel like theirs big gap between
Arizona, Duke, Michigan, Uconn, Florida, and Houston. Think those will all be 1 or 2 seeds. Of course could get a 7 still and get 1 of the 2 remaining 2's but if it's big ten teams like Michigan State or Illinois probably going to get Florida or Houston as our 2.
I don’t think they can fall to an 11. Looked again this morning. I think the top 40 teams are all basically locks at this point…top 10 seed lines. The next group of teams have resumes so flawed I can’t see them rising above regardless. There can be some bid stealers but not enough to change that dynamic.
I also think UCLA and Texas are locks. I think you have about 12 teams vying for the 6 remaining spots.
I disagree I think 0-3 finish from here we would be anywhere from an 11 to out as we discussed in other thread. Who are the 12 you see as on the bubble if you don't mind
Duke.March 3, 2026 Update:
10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has #9 seed IOWA vs #8 seed St. Louis with the winner playing the winner of #1 Duke/#16 C Arkansas.
Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan (2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
7 Wisconsin
9 IOWA
10 UCLA..................... ........ (1 of Last 4 Byes)
11 Ohio State............(1 of LAST 4 IN)
11 Indiana...................... (LAST TEAM IN)
Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
USC.................................................(5th team OUT)
Link to the March 3, 2026 ESPN Bracket:
Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape
The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.www.espn.com
Bracket Matrix (as of March 2) has IOWA as an 8 seed.
When the brackets from 105 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered (barely) an 8 seed.
Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
I guess I don’t understand the logic. It’s all comparative. You’re just not gonna find better resumes. There’s always more locks at this point than people realize.
and keep in mind there’s really 6 11-seeds in the tournament. Just no way Iowa falls that far compared to other resumes. Will look at the bubble and respond here in a minute.
Okay looking at resumes and remaining schedules I think it’s a larger lock list and shorter bubble. UCLA is a lock. Texas AM just has a stronger resume than the bubble so I think they are too. And some so called bubble teams just are not gonna be seriously considers (ie. Cincy, Cal)
10 bubble teams vying for the last 4 spots:
SMU, TCU, Santa Clara, VCU, IU, New Mexico, Ohio St, USC, Auburn, San Diego st.
personally I think OSU is in or will get in. And then it’s a bunch of mediocrity at best.
Bottom line is Iowa under no plausible scenario falls into that group of 10.
10 bubble teams vying for the last 4 spots:
SMU, TCU, Santa Clara, VCU, IU, New Mexico, Ohio St, USC, Auburn, San Diego st.
personally I think OSU is in or will get in. And then it’s a bunch of mediocrity at best.
Bottom line is Iowa under no plausible scenario falls into that group of 10.
Soo...still the dreaded 8/9 game or maybe a 10 seed if they go 0-3? Hell at this rate we probably beat Mich or NE the way this season is going and I'll allow it...
lol very true.Soo...still the dreaded 8/9 game or maybe a 10 seed if they go 0-3? Hell at this rate we probably beat Mich or NE the way this season is going and I'll allow it...
losing out and I still think they are a 9 seed.