OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
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Mike Masco : 3-5 inches for areas S and E of NYC. 1-3 inches in NNJ. Masco emphasized amounts are preliminary and I took that as amounts will increase.
John Marshall : 2-5 inches for NJ with higher amounts by coast. He also said amounts will change which I took as will increase.
There’ll be windy gusty conditions during storm..
John Marshall : 2-5 inches for NJ with higher amounts by coast. He also said amounts will change which I took as will increase.
There’ll be windy gusty conditions during storm..
Brief update on the 6Z model runs (bulleted list below) and the NWS forecast maps. The NWS issued a snowfall map, below, but note that it only goes through 7 am Sunday (they only project out 72 hours) so it's incomplete and in their discussion (AFD) they said, "Given the uncertainty, our latest forecast stuck closely to the NBM (model blend)," which would mean the 01Z NBM through 7 am Monday, which is the 2nd graphic, which is fairly close to their forecast map. And if they were forecasting for the whole storm, it would've been the 01Z NBM in the 3rd graphic, which goes through 1 pm on Sunday, when precip is over on the NBM, which is a respectable starting point, IMO, given the still pretty high uncertainty facing them.
I'd expect watches to go up at 4 pm, unless we see some unexpected significant model backtracking on snowfall. And there's plenty of room for them to bump totals up should it come to that, looking at their 10% high probability case showing 12-24" - but they also might have the biggest spread from high to low I've ever seen with their 10% low probability case being for <1" for all, as the setup is still fragile and we're still 54 hours from the start of the event and it's a low but not zero probability that everything unravels and we get very little snow; same thing on the high side. Those low/high probability NWS snowfall maps are in the link below. With regard to the model output from 6Z below, most of the models showed modest to significant increases from 0Z, except the AIFS which was the same and the Euro, which dropped a bit, but with the Euro now being more of an outlier than before (since so many models have significant to major snowfall now), it's being discounted more than it was yesterday. Strap in folks.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
- 6Z ICON shows 6-12" for 95, 4-6" NW, and 1-16" towards the coast (big increase from 0Z)
- 6Z GFS is an even bigger blizzard (yes a blizzard with gusts over 40 mph for most) with 12-18" N of 78, 18-26" between 78 and 276/195, and 26-35" south of 276/195
- 6Z AIGFS shows 8-14" for 95, 4-8" NW, and 14-18" towards the coast (a big increase from 0Z)
- 6Z Euro-AIFS shows 4-6" for 95, 2-4" NW, and 6-10" towards the coast (same as 0Z)
- 6Z Euro shows 3-5" N of 276/195 and 1-3" S of 276/195 (a bit of a decrease from 0Z)
- 7Z NBM shows a general 6-10" for all (the higher amounts towards the coast; was 5-8" for all at 0Z).
NWS Snowfall map - only through 7 am Monday
NBM Snowfall Forecast through 7 am Monday
NBM Snowfall Map through 1 pm Monday (end of storm)
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Not sure what you're looking at, since the latest GFS, which came out around 5 am this morning, shows ~30" for Philly, but keep in mind that's just one model not a forecast. The NWS forecast is more reasonable at 6.5" for Philly. See my my most recent other post for showing the NWS snowfall map and the NBM maps it's based on.It looks the like the AI versions of most of weather forecast models are just as inept as the current versions.
Still not much change overnight with the GFS except they lowered the amount to 1 foot down from 2 feet yesterday. Progress
6Z GFS - NOT A FORECAST!
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The NWS has you at 4-6" as per the map I just posted, but that's only through 7 am Monday; that would likely be 5-7" through the end of the storm around 1 pm Monday. They do have you at 1-3" for Sunday only. Not that big of a deal, true and Bergen County is far enough north (further away from the storm than the coast) that even in the most bullish foreast, one might only expect 8-12" there for the storm (vs. 18-24" for the Jersey Shore).
Also, the snow on Sunday afternoon may have a hard time accumulating during daylight at light intensity with temps likely in the 33-35F range, but after dark temps drop a little and there's no more indirect sunlight so accumulations should be easier.
That's from both NBC10 and 6ABC at 6am. Getting my information from professionals. Argue with them .
What is refreshing is both stations have not shown a measurement snow map as this is still not in agreement enough.
Well your professionals were demonstrably wrong, as per the GFS map I shared. I have zero issue wanting to wait for at least the 12Z model suite before issuing forecast maps, given the high uncertainty present still. I'm sure everyone will have their maps ready for the news cycle late this afternoon.
Didn't you just post a map with measurements in your first response to me? Professionals don't use that nonsense but you got sucked into that map.
Yuup
Any measurement should be taken with grain of salt 54 hours out. The NBM will be skewed by the wacky GFS solution which still has no support. The 6z nam and ukie were complete misses well the Ukie was rain so you have that on the other side
Like throwing darts with these models. Today and tomorrow expect them to shift again
Zarrow not giving a map since this situation is too volitaile but everyone could see 1-4 and then depending on storm placement thats when when you could see the 6 8 10 amounts centered to southeast jersey
Yes they said it starts as rain and and amounts depends on how quickly or slowly the temperatures drop.
Zarrow = one of the most reasonable and responsible pros out there
(no clickbait or wishcasting)
12z NAM took a huge jump north cenetering 12-20 inches toward se nj coast. 8-10 central jersey tapering to 5 nw Nj its a pretty huge cut off by this big shift north is a nod to the GFS.
Lotta models runs to go
Lotta models runs to go
Yes, but only because you stated something wrong and the only way to show it was wrong was to post the map. C'mon, it was the first map I posted in this thread, I think and there was a good reason. Do you have problems with the NWS/NBM maps they're largely based on too?
Agree, which is why I posted the NWS maps and NBM maps they're based on, but with a big grain of salt noting that the NWS 10% probability low/high cases are <1" and up to 24" reflecting high uncertainty. But you're grasping at straws on the out of range NAM, especially since the new NAM is a big hit, and the UK has zero support. Also, the GFS now has a ton of support - not for 14"+ amounts, but certainly for 8-14" amounts. Also, we're now only about 48 hours out and model errors go down swiftly inside this range, for obvious reasons (way less time for errorst to propagate). IMO, if the 12Z suite doesn't have any models showing only a couple of inches, I'd be confident in going with the watches for a potential 6" or more for everyone.
So do you believe the map? When two separate actual meteorologist said the same thing maybe it's you that is wrong. Maybe they ignore Mt. Holly and just look at the data.
Don't argue with the King. Don't u know he has 1000 followers on his email list and is friends with mets in the know?
Stop arguing about maps. We're within 72 hours of the event and it appears everyone will see some snow. Time to FOCUS. Or at least let Bac and Numbers do the bulk of the arguing.
the big question mark is the Euro..if it moves to a moderate solution and jumps on board then we can start to feel more confident in perhaps a 6 inch plus amount with the SE NJ being the sweet spot.
12Z running post - models coming in pretty hot at 12Z so far...
- 12Z NAM went from nada for most at 6Z to 4-8” N of 78, 8-14” from 78 to 276/195, and 14-22” south of 276/195.
- 12Z ICON shows 7-10" for everyone and 10-15" towards the coast (nice bump up vs 6Z).
- 12Z RGEM shows 2-4" NW of 95, 4-6" for 95 and 6-9" towards the coast (went up ~2" across the board vs 6Z).
- 12Z GFS just about as insane as 6Z with 12" around 84 increasing to 24" near 276/195 and 24-30" S of 276/195.
- 12Z CMC shows 2-4" NW of 95, 4-6" for 95 and 6-8" towards the coast (went up ~3" across the board vs. 0Z and is very similar to the RGEM, which is not surprising as they are related).
- 12Z UK shows 4-6" NW of 95, 6-10" for 95 and 10-14" towards the coast (huge increase vs 2-4" for most at 0Z).
- 12Z AIGFS is another monster blizzard with 10-15" NW of 95, 15-21" for 95 and 21-24" towards the coast (a 6"+ increase)
- 12Z Euro-AIFS shows 4-7" NW, 7-10" for 95, and 10-15" towards the coast (an increase of 3-5" vs 6Z)
- 12Z Euro has officially caved to the GFS as it now shows 3-5" NW, 4-7" for 95 and 7-10" to the coast (2-4" increases v 06Z)
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I'm against maps at this point. You are arguing with the wrong guy. Have you seen me post a map? Time to FOCUS?? For what. Still no absolute answer to what we are going to get. Unless you like previous answers of 1" to 36"
One thing I can definitely say is thank god today's rain is melting away the remaining vestiges of snow leftover in Brick. We would not have had a place to shovel a foot in alot of spots had this come last week. It'll still be tight at some intersections that still have large piles.
It looks the like the AI versions of most of weather forecast models are just as inept as the current versions.
Still not much change overnight with the GFS except they lowered the amount to 1 foot down from 2 feet yesterday. Progress
Last try. You said that for the GFS overnight they "lowered the amount to 1 foot down from 2 feet yesterday." I'm assuming you're referring to Philly, where yesterday's 06Z run gave 24.9". After that the subsequent GFS runs had 18" (12Z), 18" (18Z) and 12" (0Z, which came out around 11 pm last night. Maybe they/you were referring to that run, which wasn't "overnight." So when I saw that, the actual overnight run of the GFS was 6Z which came out at 5 am this morning and that increased Philly to 30". And Philly is now 22" on the 12Z GFS. Certainly, overnight the GFS went back up substantially, hence my original comment. Maybe it was all a simple miscommunication. I'd say let's move on, but keep in mind that if the GFS is even remotely correct, that's a lot of snow for Philly and everyone else; I think it's overdone, but it's not out of the question either.
And with regard to your 2nd post the maps for models are simply the maps - not sure there's anything to "believe in" or not. Unless you're talking about some other map than the GFS model maps we've been talking about. I'm sure every forecaster in the media picks and chooses what inputs to use or not use including NWS info. Otherwise, they could just share the NWS forecast. No issue with that - I do the same thing sometimes if I think the NWS is out to lunch (they have been a few times lately).
So you agree with me that everyone picks what inputs to choose. Than how can you say the two meteorologist were wrong when comparing one day to the next?? Can't have it both ways. Trying to say your right and they're wrong when you have no clue what data they are using.
we are getting to crunch time
UKMet which was rain and a whiff now has 4-6 northern NJ into somerset county and 6-10 going from middlesex towards SE jersey
may have two camps developing...the GFS/icon/nam solutions which dump over 6 inches everywhere and with the gfs 1 foot plus vs the canadian/ukie which do not push the storm as much north and heaviest amounts toward coast and off shore
the euro will be interesting
I think its safe to say some snow is coming for everyone...will it just be a moderate type 3-6 event for many or a major dump ala the January storm with 8-14 inches or even a historic storm with 12-24 is still in question. A case can be made for all 3
all of the models shifts underscores why talking about model runs one week out are not really worth the time. We get incredible shifts once we get inside 96 hours and even more inside 72 and more inside 48. . Long term 6-7 day models just are useful as a signal and there will almost always be models showing some event a week out and there will be models showing nada.
