OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard

[RU848789]

Imagine quibbling about an inch vs 1.2 or 1.5 on a snow map 100 hours ou

If there were a ref he would've stopped this bout already, but you appear to want more punishment so here you go. You said the Euro was "again south and east miss." The Euro was not south and east at all, but its surface low pressure moved NW over 100 miles from where it was at 12Z. Do you need me to show the maps? Secondly the Euro was not a miss and it wasn't just 1". The Euro showed 1-3" for most of 95 (1-2" towards 78) and showed 3-4" towards the coast. It's not a major snowstorm, but it's a pretty far cry from a miss.

 

[MCRU93]

1 inch doesnt impress me

Is that what sweet pea said to you after seeing it last night?

 

[fsng]

Is that what sweet pea said to you after seeing it last night?

Too busy gobbling the peanut butter to notice, I bet

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Too busy gobbling the peanut butter to notice, I bet

Talk about trolling the thread

 

[WhiteBus]

Selective memory. Several of our biggest snowstorms in history showed snowmageddon 5-6 days out, then models diverged with most showing much less snow followed by reconvergence 2-3 days out and then boom. Most famous example was 12/26/2010, where most models were showing an out to sea solution for a couple of days and then the 0Z runs on Christmas Eve, 36 hours before the start of the event mostly all showed a raging blizzard. We were in Charlotte for Xmas and instead of leaving 12/26 in the morning we left after Xmas dinner and were caught in some heavy snow in NC going 25-30 mph in the one clear lane on 85 until we outran the storm around Durham. No way was I going to miss that storm from home. Even 1/25 looked like we'd be on the northern fringe of snow 5 days out, but the storm track shifted 300 miles north over the next 2 days putting us in the bullseye.

So give me a percentage that do! Under 10% or closer to 5%.

 

[fsng]

Talk about trolling *me and my mutt brother

Fify

 

[BigEastPhil]

Mr G hinting at several inches.

Nick Gregory and Dave Curran remaining non committal. Gregory showed whiff by Euro and some snow from American Model. However both showed Sunday with snow on their visuals

Lee Goldberg hinting storm is too Far East and maybe little snow around coastal areas.

 

[RU848789]

Mr G hinting at several inches.

Nick Gregory and Dave Curran remaining non committal. Gregory showed whiff by Euro and some snow from American Model. However both showed Sunday with snow on their visuals

Lee Goldberg hinting storm is too Far East and maybe little snow around coastal areas.

Yep, saw some of theses. If I were responsible for communicating to hundreds of thousands of people, I'd be pretty conservative in a situation like this, probably saying there's a pretty good chance of several inches or more, but a similar chance of little to no snow due to the storm being too far offshore and that we simply need more/better info before committing to a forecast. Which is kind of what I think now, lol, as the GFS and CMC were pretty big hits again, the UK was a whiff, and the AIGFS and ICON were minor hits, with the two big boys up next the AIFS and Euro. Hard to make definitive forecast, IMO, at least based on the models - pros use a lot more than models though, but even the good ones I see on line generally don't have high confidence in a particular outcome right now.

 

[RU848789]

The usual, fairly brief model summary at 18Z. Mostly snowier moves, except for the AIFS, but the most important move was the Euro now showing at least minor to moderate snow now vs. nada at 12Z. Note that the precip/snow is now starting late afternoon/early evening on Sunday not Sunday morning, any more.

• The ICON moved significantly NW and now has 1-3" for 95 and 3-6" towards the coast (and the run wasn't done yet)
• The GFS became even snowier with 6-10" for 95 (4-7" NW) and 10-18" towards the coast
• The Euro-AIFS moved SE and it shows less snow now, i.e., 1-2" for 95/NW and 2-4" towards the coast
• The Euro moved back NW about 100 miles and now has 1-3" NW/3-5" towards the coast - this was a major move back NW to where it was at 6Z.
• The GFS ensembles are in line with the Op, and both the Euro and AIFS ensembles lean a bit NW of the Op indicating some likelihood of the Op models moving NW.

Summary: Model Mayhem Continues! At 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland.

Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, as right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps. Bottom line is that we could see anything from a major snowstorm for all to a whiff for all and everything in-between, so stay tuned.

Details: At 0Z, the snowfall variance across the major models is crazy high. Briefly, the GFS and CMC were pretty big hits again with everyone S of 78 getting 6”+ and coastal areas getting 12”+ and the WeatherNext 2 continued to have 3-5" for 95/NW and 5-8" towards the coast, while the UK was a whiff, and the AIGFS and ICON were minor hits (1-3” type). The two best models diverged, with the AIFS making a significant move snowier showing 4-6” for 95, 2-4” NW and 6-10” towards, while the Euro stayed with a couple of inches of snow. Hard to make a definitive forecast, IMO, at least based on the models - pros use a lot more than models though, but even the good ones I see on line and in the media generally don't have high confidence in a particular outcome right now.

It’s also worth noting that the GFS ensemble mean was in line with the GFS-Op, and both the Euro and AIFS ensemble means leaned a bit NW of their Operational models, indicating some likelihood of those Op models not being far enough NW (and not snowy enough as moving NW brings more precip/snow inland). Earlier in the day some of the ensemble means were SE of their Op runs, which made one think the Op models were snowier than they should have been. It’s more complicated than this actually, but a full deep dive into the 20-50 ensemble runs for each parent model (all run with varying inputs to evaluate model sensitivity and consistency) and what they mean vs. the Ops would take a page, at least.

Bottom line for me is that a major snowstorm for all is possible, although that seems more likely towards the coast, and a minor to moderate snowstorm is possible for 95 SE to the coast and a near to complete whiff for all is also quite possible (as well as everything in-between the major and whiff possibilities) and I truly couldn’t tell you which is most likely. I think we simply need more time to develop a reasonable consensus, as we’re still almost 4 days from the start of the event, which is now looking more likely to be Sunday afternoon than sunrise Sunday. Also, keep in mind that with coastal storms, if the track gets too close to the coast, rain could become an issue for coastal areas (this is not an issue now).

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62604-winter-storm-threat-feb-22-24th/page/27/

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Sweet Pea is the best.

FIFY

 

[BigEastPhil]

Mike Masco currently predicts 60% chance of significant snow primarily N and W of NYC.

40% chance of rain - snow mix.

I saw on fox weather that there is a benchmark spot off point pleasant that If the storm hits - it generally means heavy precipitation.

Forget which model but 1-2 models are quite close to the benchmark with most east of it.

 

[RU848789]

Summary: Model Mayhem Continues! At 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland.

Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow. If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, as right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps. Bottom line is that we could see anything from a major snowstorm for all to a whiff for all and everything in-between, so stay tuned.

Details: At 0Z, the snowfall variance across the major models is crazy high. Briefly, the GFS and CMC were pretty big hits again with everyone S of 78 getting 6”+ and coastal areas getting 12”+ and the WeatherNext 2 continued to have 3-5" for 95/NW and 5-8" towards the coast, while the UK was a whiff, and the AIGFS and ICON were minor hits (1-3” type). The two best models diverged, with the AIFS making a significant move snowier showing 4-6” for 95, 2-4” NW and 6-10” towards, while the Euro stayed with a couple of inches of snow. Hard to make a definitive forecast, IMO, at least based on the models - pros use a lot more than models though, but even the good ones I see on line and in the media generally don't have high confidence in a particular outcome right now.

It’s also worth noting that the GFS ensemble mean was in line with the GFS-Op, and both the Euro and AIFS ensemble means leaned a bit NW of their Operational models, indicating some likelihood of those Op models not being far enough NW (and not snowy enough as moving NW brings more precip/snow inland). Earlier in the day some of the ensemble means were SE of their Op runs, which made one think the Op models were snowier than they should have been. It’s more complicated than this actually, but a full deep dive into the 20-50 ensemble runs for each parent model (all run with varying inputs to evaluate model sensitivity and consistency) and what they mean vs. the Ops would take a page, at least.

Bottom line for me is that a major snowstorm for all is possible, although that seems more likely towards the coast, and a minor to moderate snowstorm is possible for 95 SE to the coast and a near to complete whiff for all is also quite possible (as well as everything in-between the major and whiff possibilities) and I truly couldn’t tell you which is most likely. I think we simply need more time to develop a reasonable consensus, as we’re still almost 4 days from the start of the event, which is now looking more likely to be Sunday afternoon than sunrise Sunday. Also, keep in mind that with coastal storms, if the track gets too close to the coast, rain could become an issue for coastal areas (this is not an issue now).

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62604-winter-storm-threat-feb-22-24th/page/27/

Not much clarity gained after the 6Z models, with the GFS going full out blizzard for almost all of us, while the Euro is still well SE of our area (but has a bit more snow for us, due to an inverted trough feature) and Euro-AIFS moved a bit SE of last night's run. No CMC/UK at 6Z and the mesoscale models (RGEM/NAM/HRRR etc.) are still well out of range, so just looking at these and the ensemble mean for the GFS being SE of the Op and the ensemble mean for the Euro being NW of the Op would argue for the GFS and Euro being outliers somewhat and the AIFS perhaps being more realistic, but that's a guess.

Specifically, here's what we see at 6Z, below. Not going to speculate much more as we're still 84 hrs from the likely start of the event (meaning much can still change) and we simply need more clarity/consensus across the models and maybe we'll get that at 12Z, since right now, from a whiff to a bomb are on the table - with a coastal scraper with a few inches for 95 and several inches for the coast, like the AIFS shows, perhaps being most likely at this time (I see many mets on-line saying that).

• The 6Z GFS shows ~6" along 84, ~12" along 78 and 20"+ south of 276/195, where it's a raging blizzard. The GEFS ensemble mean is a decent amount SE of the GFS Op, implying the GFS Op is somewhat of an outlier (the mean looks like the AIFS).
• The 6Z Euro shows 1-2" for most of NJ (except SENJ), but shows 2-5" for EPA into NWNJ from the upper level low approaching from the west (the coastal is still too far SE to give us much); the EPS ensemble mean shows 1-3" for most.
• The 6Z Euro-AIFS shows 2-4" for 95 (1-2" NW) and 4-7" towards the coast
• The 6Z ICON shows 2-4" for 95 and 4-6" towards the coast with the coastal also being well SE of us, like the Euro, but it has an inverted trough feature connecting the coastal to the upper level low bringing that amount of snow.

 

[RULoyal]

Dan Zarrow as of 8am

 

[RU848789]

Mike Masco currently predicts 60% chance of significant snow primarily N and W of NYC.

40% chance of rain - snow mix.

I saw on fox weather that there is a benchmark spot off point pleasant that If the storm hits - it generally means heavy precipitation.

Forget which model but 1-2 models are quite close to the benchmark with most east of it.

He must be thinking NYC/NW get their snow from the upper level low and not the coastal - interesting. The "benchmark" is the mythical meteorological spot at 40N/70W, about 200 miles east of Pt. Pleasant and due south of Cape Cod, which, if a nor'easter (heading NE, typically from the VA/NC coast) goes over that spot, will often give the 95 cities and the coast the most snow. NW of that spot starts being too close to the coast bringing in rain and SE of that spot means less precip/snow for everyone. The GFS heads a little SE of that benchmark bringing heavy snow to all, but especially to the coast, while the Euro is far SE of that benchmark leaving most of the precip/snow offshore.

TWC just had a great set of visuals with this for both models and also demonstrating what's "steering" all of this. There's a big upper level low/trough (at 500 mbar, 18,000 feet up) moving south from Alaska towards off of Seattle and it's counterclockwise flow drives a higher pressure upper level ridge in the Rockies and the clockwise flow around that drives an upper level trough in the eastern US and our eventual surface low rides along that trough and if the trough is too "flat" the storm heads way SE of the benchmark and we get a whiff, while if the trough is sharper/deeper (more like a "U" instead of a "smile") it drives that surface low NE-ward towards the benchmark and we get snow (it also allows the surface low to interact/phase more easily with the upper level low diving SE from the Great Lakes, which makes the surface low stronger).

As you might expect, without enough data on that Gulf of Alaska low, TWC is predicting a bit of a blend of the GFS/Euro, leaning more towards the Euro, but still giving some heavy snow for the coast and less inland, somewhat like the Euro-AIFS, with maybe 3-5" for 95/NW and 5-8" SE of 95 to the coast. Will try to post the video, but for now, here's the pic of their thoughts for the storm: it's not a formal forecast, but their purple is usually 5-8" and dark blue is usually 3-5".

 

[Bagarocks]

Curious minds want to know with baited breath, what the name of the Storm is gonna be... NOT

 

[RU848789]

The 12Z model suite is not good for snow lovers, via the NAM/RGEM/ICON/CMC/UK/AIFS/Euro all showing a coastal well offshore with small amounts of snow from an inverted trough feature with only the GFS showing significant snow for our area with a much further NW coastal and it's an absolute bomb, lol; see the bulleted comments below. Normally with the GFS being all alone it would be rightly dismissed and the threat would be on life support, but most of the mets keep talking about how close the Euro, UK, CMC, etc. were to phasing sooner, which the GFS does with the northern system, which would amplify it and bring it northward like the GFS - and how with 3+ days still to go that those minor changes, leading to major outcome differences still can happen. That's beyond my pay grade, lol - glad I don't have to issue a forecast, but if one had to bet, a few inches is a better bet than a bigger storm.

• The NAM/RGEM, while out of their best range, still show the eventual surface low way SE with little to no snow for our area other than possibly a few inches for areas N of 78 from the upper level low approaching from the Great Lakes,
• The ICON continues to show a track well to the SE (not as far SE as the NAM/RGEM) with maybe a couple of inches on Monday from the coastal/inverted trough feature.
• The GFS has 12" along 78 and 20"+ south of Philly to Toms River. A blizzard. And somehow the GFS ensembles lean even further NW than the Op, so the Op is not an outlier.
• The CMC made a significant move SE with the low and now only has a couple of inches N of 78 and 3-5" for areas west of the Delaware in PA from the coastal low interacting with the upper low from the NW via an inverted trough, with nada from the coastal low for the rest of our area.
• The UK moved a bit NW from its whiff last night but it's still well SE, although it does put down an inch or two here and there from that inverted trough (IVT) feature, like the CMC/ICON.
• The Euro-AIFS move a bit SE and now only shows an area wide 1-3" of snow.
• Finally, the Euro did move back NW some and has that same IVT feature several other models do, which brings 1-3" to most of the area (but not SNJ).

If this system, which has loads of potential, ends up being well to the SE due to lack of a sharp enough trough in the east driving the low up the coast, along with poor phasing with the northern stream upper level low, partly due to too many vortmaxes (upper level vorticity maxes) from the northern stream/Pacjet, it could be part of a many year trend. A few mets, including John Homenuk (earthlight) are speculating that this is happening much more frequently the past few years due to an historically overactive Pacific jet: "The broad theory is that the ridiculously anomalous warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific are enhancing the jet and thermal gradients, which as a result is leading to more interference and less steady Western US ridging. The Pac has also blown apart like 5 potential big storms in recent years with transient ridging and kickers/etc. Research still ongoing about impacts, it'll be another decade before we really know." Not sure about this, but it's certainly true that we haven't had a classic big coastal storm in 5 years, since Feb-21 (the 1/25 storm was big, but it wasn't a coastal).

 

[bac2therac]

alot of the models have been pointing to this being a coastal grazer...its good the weenie board is starting to accept it

GFS vs everyone

 

[bac2therac]

12 GFS on black beauties...biblical snow along the Va/MD border

 

[bac2therac]

well snow lovers have lost the Canadian too.

 

[DHajekRC1984]

12 GFS on black beauties...biblical snow along the Va/MD border

THAT would be insane... Holy Smokes.

 

[bac2therac]

ukie really wants no part of this either

again things are looking like a coastal scraper that may or may not have precip type issues there and maybe an inch of snow...any additional snow could come from an inverted trough but those are very tricky and no one has any idea at this time where that would set up.

so yes its basically the GFS on its own here with a laughable solution..the AIGFS does give us a few inches

Euro is on deck

 

[Mikemarc]

GFS vs everyone.

GFS has a big storm. Everyone else has a coastal scraper.

id go with everyone else at this point - but still worth tracking. Too close to call

 

[bac2therac]

euro ai is way east and euro also is a miss but gives us perhaps some snow Sunday morning and afternoon from an inverted trough

GFS on its own

 

[WhiteBus]

Both NBC10 and 6ABC Philadelphia talked about the difference between the models. However both stations didn't talk about possible snow amounts or show a snow fall map. Refreshing!!

 

[bac2therac]

Both NBC10 and 6ABC Philadelphia talked about the difference between the models. However both stations didn't talk about possible snow amounts or show a snow fall map. Refreshing!!

Yep because hemming and hawing over snowmaps vertabim likes Numbers does 4-5 days before an event is pointless but he will never change

 

[Caliknight]

Yep because hemming and hawing over snowmaps vertabim likes Numbers does 4-5 days before an event is pointless but he will never change

Can't get that thirst trap attention if you don't post!

 

[RU848789]

The 12Z model suite is not good for snow lovers, via the NAM/RGEM/ICON/CMC/UK/AIFS/Euro all showing a coastal well offshore with small amounts of snow from an inverted trough feature with only the GFS showing significant snow for our area with a much further NW coastal and it's an absolute bomb, lol; see the bulleted comments below. Normally with the GFS being all alone it would be rightly dismissed and the threat would be on life support, but most of the mets keep talking about how close the Euro, UK, CMC, etc. were to phasing sooner, which the GFS does with the northern system, which would amplify it and bring it northward like the GFS - and how with 3+ days still to go that those minor changes, leading to major outcome differences still can happen. That's beyond my pay grade, lol - glad I don't have to issue a forecast, but if one had to bet, a few inches is a better bet than a bigger storm.

• The NAM/RGEM, while out of their best range, still show the eventual surface low way SE with little to no snow for our area other than possibly a few inches for areas N of 78 from the upper level low approaching from the Great Lakes,
• The ICON continues to show a track well to the SE (not as far SE as the NAM/RGEM) with maybe a couple of inches on Monday from the coastal/inverted trough feature.
• The GFS has 12" along 78 and 20"+ south of Philly to Toms River. A blizzard. And somehow the GFS ensembles lean even further NW than the Op, so the Op is not an outlier.
• The CMC made a significant move SE with the low and now only has a couple of inches N of 78 and 3-5" for areas west of the Delaware in PA from the coastal low interacting with the upper low from the NW via an inverted trough, with nada from the coastal low for the rest of our area.
• The UK moved a bit NW from its whiff last night but it's still well SE, although it does put down an inch or two here and there from that inverted trough (IVT) feature, like the CMC/ICON.
• The Euro-AIFS move a bit SE and now only shows an area wide 1-3" of snow.
• Finally, the Euro did move back NW some and has that same IVT feature several other models do, which brings 1-3" to most of the area (but not SNJ).

If this system, which has loads of potential, ends up being well to the SE due to lack of a sharp enough trough in the east driving the low up the coast, along with poor phasing with the northern stream upper level low, partly due to too many vortmaxes (upper level vorticity maxes) from the northern stream/Pacjet, it could be part of a many year trend. A few mets, including John Homenuk (earthlight) are speculating that this is happening much more frequently the past few years due to an historically overactive Pacific jet: "The broad theory is that the ridiculously anomalous warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific are enhancing the jet and thermal gradients, which as a result is leading to more interference and less steady Western US ridging. The Pac has also blown apart like 5 potential big storms in recent years with transient ridging and kickers/etc. Research still ongoing about impacts, it'll be another decade before we really know." Not sure about this, but it's certainly true that we haven't had a classic big coastal storm in 5 years, since Feb-21 (the 1/25 storm was big, but it wasn't a coastal).

Let's see what 18Z brings, with, by far the biggest question being does the now outlier GFS cave to the Euro and all the other guidance showing a weaker, less phased and further out to sea solution? Or does it extend the misery another 6 or 12 hours before caving keeping snow lovers interested? Fortunately, I have lots of hobbies with one of them being poker and it's time for our twice-monthly game tonight.

Assuming it does, then the next question becomes, what happens then? Most of the models still show some snow from the upper level low from the Great Lakes followed by some snow from the coastal interacting with that ULL via an inverted trough - and this could put down a few inches of snow Sunday night into Monday for most and with inverted troughs, predicting their location for decent banding is very hard, so it's possible some areas could get a few to several inches and some could get little to no snow.

If the GFS doesn't cave, one other question will be, is it possible for one or more of the other models to move back towards the GFS depiction - maybe not all the way to a bomb, but even partway? Many of the models were close at 12Z, so it's not impossible. As I mentioned in the quoted post, many mets have been totally surprised by how close the GFS and the other models look at 500 mbar (which is what drives the surface outcome) and yet their outcomes are so different, meaning small upstream changes could still make a difference, but the clock is running on changes like that happening. We'll see.

 

[Postman_1]

 

[bac2therac]

Gfs held serve with its wacky solution

Remains on its own

 

[RU848789]

Let's see what 18Z brings, with, by far the biggest question being does the now outlier GFS cave to the Euro and all the other guidance showing a weaker, less phased and further out to sea solution? Or does it extend the misery another 6 or 12 hours before caving keeping snow lovers interested? Fortunately, I have lots of hobbies with one of them being poker and it's time for our twice-monthly game tonight.

Assuming it does, then the next question becomes, what happens then? Most of the models still show some snow from the upper level low from the Great Lakes followed by some snow from the coastal interacting with that ULL via an inverted trough - and this could put down a few inches of snow Sunday night into Monday for most and with inverted troughs, predicting their location for decent banding is very hard, so it's possible some areas could get a few to several inches and some could get little to no snow.

If the GFS doesn't cave, one other question will be, is it possible for one or more of the other models to move back towards the GFS depiction - maybe not all the way to a bomb, but even partway? Many of the models were close at 12Z, so it's not impossible. As I mentioned in the quoted post, many mets have been totally surprised by how close the GFS and the other models look at 500 mbar (which is what drives the surface outcome) and yet their outcomes are so different, meaning small upstream changes could still make a difference, but the clock is running on changes like that happening. We'll see.

After the NAM/RGEM/ICON continued to show well offshore solutions (although a bit closer to the coast and showing a few inches from the inverted trough), almost unbelievably, the GFS didn't come close to caving - still a blizzard for many - sharing the map for posterity, not because I think this will happen. If you were on the American or 33andrain forums seeing the real time incredulity of people who know far more about meteorology than almost anyone, you would've been kind of stunned, as they were all expecting the GFS to cave.

The other less obvious thing that just happened is that the AIGFS trended even further towards more precip/snow, as it's now showing 4-8" for 95/2-4" NW/8-12" coast. And even though most pros don't have a lot of love for the AIGFS, the fact that it's arriving at a pretty good snowfall via a totally different model algorithm (AI vs. physics) is encouraging (if you want snow), meaning the GFS solution can't just be some weird data initialization or model physics error. Again, I don't think anyone thinks we're going to see a big blizzard, but the GFS and AIGFS do illustrate that it's possible for there to be more than a whiff to a couple of inches from this storm. I guess we have to keep tracking, lol.

Euro-AIFS and Euro up next. I'll be busy. Enjoy.

Edit: Lee Goldberg just said there's the potential for light to moderate snowfall for the area and he sad for Central Park (95 really), he has a 20% chance of 1" or less, a 45% chance of 1-3", a 25% chance of 3-6" and a 10% chance of >6". No map yet, because it's just too uncertain, but he has areas N of 276/195 more likely to get snow (in the inverted trough scenario); obviously if the low probability major storm materializes, the coast would be at greatest risk of major snow.

 

[bac2therac]

Lol stop being dramatic no one was stunned. The gfs always caves late..its still 72-84 hours away

 

[bac2therac]

18z Euro AI comes in snowiest..6 inches plus

18z euro does move west..not as robust but 2-5 inches verbatim

Is it just model noise?

 

[gmay8]

Do we know anything concrete about timing? Still have my 5:50 Sunday flight booked but considering taking an earlier option on Sunday.

 

[RU848789]

Game back on. AIFS with 6-10" for most and Euro with big evolution changes towards the GFS, but not GFS like yet...2-4" for 95 and 4-8" for the coast. Let's see at 0z if these were blips or a trend to a much snowier outcome.

 

[bac2therac]

Do we know anything concrete about timing? Still have my 5:50 Sunday flight booked but considering taking an earlier option on Sunday.

No because we arent even sure of what models are right. Some solutions have snows sunday midday and others have snows not til after dark into monday the main show

 

[bac2therac]

NAM still a bit out of range moved closer to a hit but didnt quite make it with the phase

But its gone from no snow to light snow pushing up to central jersey but nothing for north jersey

 

[BigEastPhil]

Dave Curran - No blizzard / it will snow primarily along coast and central nj.

Nick Gregory - several inches probable at a minimum.

Lee Goldberg - light to moderate snow. Coast should get 3-6 inches

None of the above put up any maps yet given the uncertainty of the models as of now.

 

[bac2therac]

Gfs holds serve with big amounts..ai gfs is moderate storm

Cmc and ukie moving west some snow but not a big storm

Certainly the trends lately have been snowier but there is a constant where heaviest precip is concentrated toward southeast NJ coast

Still alot of model mayhem. Lets see what Euro says

 

[RU848789]

After the NAM/RGEM/ICON continued to show well offshore solutions (although a bit closer to the coast and showing a few inches from the inverted trough), almost unbelievably, the GFS didn't come close to caving - still a blizzard for many - sharing the map for posterity, not because I think this will happen. If you were on the American or 33andrain forums seeing the real time incredulity of people who know far more about meteorology than almost anyone, you would've been kind of stunned, as they were all expecting the GFS to cave.

The other less obvious thing that just happened is that the AIGFS trended even further towards more precip/snow, as it's now showing 4-8" for 95/2-4" NW/8-12" coast. And even though most pros don't have a lot of love for the AIGFS, the fact that it's arriving at a pretty good snowfall via a totally different model algorithm (AI vs. physics) is encouraging (if you want snow), meaning the GFS solution can't just be some weird data initialization or model physics error. Again, I don't think anyone thinks we're going to see a big blizzard, but the GFS and AIGFS do illustrate that it's possible for there to be more than a whiff to a couple of inches from this storm. I guess we have to keep tracking, lol.

Euro-AIFS and Euro up next. I'll be busy. Enjoy.

Edit: Lee Goldberg just said there's the potential for light to moderate snowfall for the area and he sad for Central Park (95 really), he has a 20% chance of 1" or less, a 45% chance of 1-3", a 25% chance of 3-6" and a 10% chance of >6". No map yet, because it's just too uncertain, but he has areas N of 276/195 more likely to get snow (in the inverted trough scenario); obviously if the low probability major storm materializes, the coast would be at greatest risk of major snow.


View attachment 1192717

Summary: our potential snowstorm is back after major movement by most models towards the GFS. Looking like at least a moderate (2-4") snowfall for everyone in the Philly-NJ-NYC area with a significant snowfall (4-8") much more likely than it was earlier today, with the greatest potential for 6"+ snows being a bit SE of 95 towards the coast. We're still 2.5 days from the event start, likely Sunday afternoon, so things can still change although the window for big changes is narrowing. A whiff is not shown on any model, so that is now extremely unlikely, but potential outcomes still have a wide range, i.e., from a minor (1-2") storm to a major (8-14") storm with somewhere in-between those outcomes being most likely at this time. With a stronger, snowier storm more likely high winds are also in play with gusts to 40+ mph at the coast possible, as well as minor tidal flooding.

Details: So after the 18Z suite "saved" the storm and somewhat vindicated the GFS, since models started moving towards its system evolution and depiction of phasing, track and intensity, with further NW tracks and greater intensity/precip/snow, the next question was whether 0Z would continue in that vein or slip back. Well the answer based on the 0Z models which just came out was fairly clear that this system is now far more likely to bring at least a few to several inches of snow to much of the area than has been the case the last 2 days, and with some models depicting 6"+ for much of the area and the potential for 12"+ for some, especially south of 78 and towards the coast. See the bulleted 12Z model summary below.

I would expect the NWS might want to wait for another model cycle or two for confirmation that moderate to significant snowfall is likely before issuing winter storm watches, i.e., I could see them waiting until Friday afternoon, about 42 hours before the start of the storm, probably sometime Sunday afternoon. Because, given that the models have truly been all over the place for the past 2 days, it's still possible, but a lot less likely, that they'll shift back to most of them showing just minimal snow. Also, even if that doesn't happen the range of outcomes is still very wide making it hard to know what to prepare the public for.

IMO, I'd probably let people know that 6" or more of snow for most (especially south of 78) is possible, but not a given, which is what watches are for; not sure if the watches would extend north of 78, where most of the models haven't had 6" or more. One more point: for areas at/near the coast, if the system is on the weaker side with lighter precip, some rain is possible and/or white rain (snow that melts at the surface) with marginal surface temps, but with a stronger storm greater precip rates and dynamic cooling would likely make snow for everyone. The NWS discussion is below.

• The 0Z NAM/RGEM are still a bit out of their ranges, but they became much snowier than at 18Z.
• The 0Z GFS is another bomb showing 6-10" N of 78, 10-15" between 78 and 276/195, and 15-25" S of 276/195; as modeled this has the potential for blizzard conditions.
  • While the GFS is obviously still an outlier, the fact that almost all of the models have moved towards its system evolution means that it's possible that they'll go further towards the GFS, like the AI models have making a major snowstorm more likely. IF that occurs and verifies this would be one of the biggest modeling coups ever, which is dumbfounding, given how poorly the GFS has been performing (it did get the Jan-2015 bust right, though).
• The 0Z ICON also is much snowier than at 18Z, now showing 3-6" for the entire area.
• The 0Z CMC is also much snowier than at 18Z, now showing 2-4" for most of the area
• The 0Z UK shows 2-3" for the area, as compared to being a total whiff at 12Z.
• The 0Z AIGFS is much snowier than at 18Z, now showing 4-8" for 95 (2-4" NW) and 8-12" towards the coast.
• The 0Z Euro-AIFS is a bit less snowy than at 18Z, showing 4-6" for 95 (2-4" NW) and 6-10" towards the coast.
• The 0Z Euro is snowier in some places and less snowy in others vs. 18Z, showing a general 3-6" for the area.
• The 0Z Weathernext2 is snowier than at 18Z, now showing 4-6" for 95 (2-4" NW) and 6-10" towards the coast.
• The 0Z NBM (model blend) shows 4-6" along and NW of 95 and 6-8" along and SE of 95 to the coast. The NWS uses the NBM as a major tool in their forecasts and it showing 6" is quite possible for the whole area might persuade them to issue watches for the whole area and not just S of 78 assuming no major backsliding on the models later today.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62604-winter-storm-threat-feb-22-24th/page/53/

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1108 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential winter storm Sunday into Monday.

The model guidance continues to show low pressure moving off the
Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast later Saturday night or Sunday, then
deepen as it moves out to sea by later Sunday into Monday. The
variability in the model guidance continues to be high, with
solutions ranging from an intense surface low tucked close to or on
the Mid-Atlantic coast to a weaker and farther south and east
surface low. The ensemble guidance also shows the varying solutions,
although the GFS ensemble mean has shifting closer to the coast. The
timing of short wave energy from the Midwest and also the West today
will determine the amplification of the upper-level trough as it
shifts eastward. Some guidance is phasing this energy with more of a
neutral to negative tilt of the trough, thus a much stronger storm
close to the coast. While the uncertainty remains high, the outcome
may become more in the middle with a deepening storm offshore but
not as quick as the more robust guidance. May also have to watch an
inverted surface trough to the northwest of the surface low. This
trough is more evident especially on the weaker and farther
south/east model solutions.

If the system is much stronger and closer to the coast, more intense
dynamics would lead to more snow (heavier precipitation rates),
while weaker and farther offshore solutions would favor lighter snow
amounts with even precipitation potentially starting as rain. The
air mass ahead of this system is forecast to not be all that cold,
therefore boundary layer temperatures will come into play regarding
rain versus snow and thus accumulations. Even a weaker storm will
still result in an increasing northeasterly low-level wind into our
coastal areas especially. This would increase the risk for at least
some coastal flooding Sunday into Monday, and this would increase
even more if the storm ends up being stronger (i.e. stronger onshore
winds). Given the uncertainty, the only change from the NBM was to
increase the wind and winds gusts Sunday into Monday mostly closer
to the coast and over the marine areas.

 

[WhiteBus]

It looks the like the AI versions of most of weather forecast models are just as inept as the current versions.
Still not much change overnight with the GFS except they lowered the amount to 1 foot down from 2 feet yesterday. Progress