Willie's Crystal Ball picks has Penn State with 7 NCAA champions and 185 team points

[Psalm 1 guy]

Willie's NCAA tournament Crystal Ball picks as of this point in the season: It sounds like his full picks are up now on his Rokfin channel, but I am not subscribed to Rokfin: Luke 1, Marcus 2 (Crookham 1 and Jax 3), Mendez 1, Echemendia 2, Davis blood round, SVN 1, Duke 1, Mitchell 1, Levi 1, Rocco 1, Barr 1, Bastida 1, AJ 2, Trumble 3, Feldman 4, Cole AA (Willie didn't specify his exact placing). So, Willie has Penn State with 9 AAs and Braeden losing in the blood round. Willie has Penn State scoring 185 team points.



0:00 - Intro
06:42 - Updated Crystal Ball Rankings
09:38 - 125lbs
15:20 - 133lbs Gonna Be Wild
27:50 - 141lbs
34:50 - 149lbs
43:25 - 157lbs
46:10 - 165lbs & 174lbs
49:20 - 184lbs - 285lbs
57:00 - Predicted Team Scores at NCAA’s
01:19:00 - Iowa/Nebraska Preview
01:28:30 - Iowa’s Lineup… No Angelo?
01:55:30 - Rest of the Weekend Slate

 

[Kiddagger311]

Willie's NCAA tournament Crystal Ball picks as of this point in the season: It sounds like his full picks are up now on his Rokfin channel, but I am not subscribed to Rokfin: Luke 1, Marcus 2 (Crookham 1 and Jax 3), Mendez 1, Echemendia 2, Davis blood round, SVN 1, Duke 1, Mitchell 1, Levi 1, Rocco 1, Barr 1, Bastida 1, AJ 2, Trumble 3, Feldman 4, Cole AA (Willie didn't specify his exact placing). So, Willie has Penn State with 9 AAs and Braeden losing in the blood round. Willie has Penn State scoring 185 team points.



0:00 - Intro
06:42 - Updated Crystal Ball Rankings
09:38 - 125lbs
15:20 - 133lbs Gonna Be Wild
27:50 - 141lbs
34:50 - 149lbs
43:25 - 157lbs
46:10 - 165lbs & 174lbs
49:20 - 184lbs - 285lbs
57:00 - Predicted Team Scores at NCAA’s
01:19:00 - Iowa/Nebraska Preview
01:28:30 - Iowa’s Lineup… No Angelo?
01:55:30 - Rest of the Weekend Slate

7 champs is mind boggling to think about…

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Willie's picks are basically a best case scenario for Penn State, although I wouldn't be shocked in the least to see Marcus win it all. Also, with Willie having Braeden losing in the Blood round, Braeden is right there to snag that tenth AA slot.

If Willie's picks come to fruition, this season's Penn State team would break the following records:

-- Team points (current record is 177)
-- Most National champs in a tournament (current record is five)
-- Most Finalists in a tournament (current record is six)
-- The most #1 seeds in a tournament (potentially) The current record is five.

Edit: And thank you to @Wrestleknownothing for giving us all easy access to these stats!

 

[Goggles Paisano]

7 champs and only 5 more points than last year? Can we assume that no bonus is included in that tally? Also for the guys who wrestled back to get 3rd last year, do they get 1 extra match over a champ, correct?

No matter how much it may look like it on paper today, I don't think we get 7 champs even though we have 8 guys who certainly could be finalist. I would love it but heads would explode everywhere.

With 10 AAs, 8 semi-finalists, and 4 or 5 champs plus bonus we should tease 182 points, since all 10 guys should deliver points this year. That's something we didn't get out of the 2017 and 2022 5 champ squads.

 

[mh-larch]

Would love 7 champs! But that is a bit too optimistic. I could see 7 finalists and 9 AAs for sure leading to a new team point total.

 

[Dogwelder]

Would love 7 champs! But that is a bit too optimistic. I could see 7 finalists and 9 AAs for sure leading to a new team point total.

To give some kind of feel on likelihood: if we get 7 finalists, and if each one has an independent 90% chance of winning the one final match, then the chance that all 7 win is about 48%--a coin flip!

 

[Acacia]

Relax. Don't panic. Next years team will be even better (tic)... and if the NCAA does 5 in 5 years, we could potentially get another year out of Levi, Luke, Braeden, and PJ. And maybe Ono.

 

[WV lion]

Relax. Don't panic. Next years team will be even better (tic)... and if the NCAA does 5 in 5 years, we could potentially get another year out of Levi, Luke, Braeden, and PJ. And maybe Ono.

5 in 5 has been shelved, pending all the lawsuits. So next year very unlikely.

 

[Goggles Paisano]

5 in 5 has been shelved, pending all the lawsuits. So next year very unlikely.

Maybe we dodged a bullet. 5 in 5 might actually hurt us in terms of roster management. Conceptually we could see Lilledahl, Blaze, Davis and PJ similar to Zain, take redshirts next year after starting just to help things work out. 5 in 5 could push a few to the portal. I think the redshirt provides more options for Cael managing the log jam much better than 5 in 5 which will make it worse.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

Willie's NCAA tournament Crystal Ball picks as of this point in the season: It sounds like his full picks are up now on his Rokfin channel, but I am not subscribed to Rokfin: Luke 1, Marcus 2 (Crookham 1 and Jax 3), Mendez 1, Echemendia 2, Davis blood round, SVN 1, Duke 1, Mitchell 1, Levi 1, Rocco 1, Barr 1, Bastida 1, AJ 2, Trumble 3, Feldman 4, Cole AA (Willie didn't specify his exact placing). So, Willie has Penn State with 9 AAs and Braeden losing in the blood round. Willie has Penn State scoring 185 team points.



0:00 - Intro
06:42 - Updated Crystal Ball Rankings
09:38 - 125lbs
15:20 - 133lbs Gonna Be Wild
27:50 - 141lbs
34:50 - 149lbs
43:25 - 157lbs
46:10 - 165lbs & 174lbs
49:20 - 184lbs - 285lbs
57:00 - Predicted Team Scores at NCAA’s
01:19:00 - Iowa/Nebraska Preview
01:28:30 - Iowa’s Lineup… No Angelo?
01:55:30 - Rest of the Weekend Slate

I can't hate on any of the picks from 149-197, but PSU will not win 6 NCAA straight finals matches... right?

 

[Nitlion1986]

I can't hate on any of the picks from 149-197, but PSU will not win 6 NCAA straight finals matches... right?

Wrong

 

[Dogwelder]

I can't hate on any of the picks from 149-197, but PSU will not win 6 NCAA straight finals matches... right?

We’re doomed!

 

[Nitlion1986]

8 finalists, Willie is correct
7 champs and 1 runner-up; Willie missed one.
It will be 8 champs
9AAs and a blood rounder, close but wrong again.
It will be 10AAs, second year in a row
185 points is an unbelievable number, but wrong again.
It will be in excess of 200 points

Something to ponder
Cael has said often that the goal every year is 10 champs. Even when going 5 for 5 in the finals with 8 AAs that statement always sounded like nothing but a hopeful wish. Not so much anymore.

 

[JA1339]

8 finalists, Willie is correct
7 champs and 1 runner-up; Willie missed one.
It will be 8 champs
9AAs and a blood rounder, close but wrong again.
It will be 10AAs, second year in a row
185 points is an unbelievable number, but wrong again.
It will be in excess of 200 points

Something to ponder
Cael has said often that the goal every year is 10 champs. Even when going 5 for 5 in the finals with 8 AAs that statement always sounded like nothing but a hopeful wish. Not so much anymore.

Someone will need to tell slumlord Bob that the playing field has not been leveled

 

[Dogwelder]

Someone will need to tell slumlord Bob that the playing has not been leveled

Iowa has been leveled. That’s why they train underground.

 

[WillieTheBrain]

i feel like i was fair. they are just projections/opinions after all.

Luke - very volatile weight where Top 12 are almost all one-takedown affairs
Blaze - as likely to win 133 as anyone
Braeden - clear AA contender but seems to be a ceiling at this time
SVN - title contender and unanimous #1 rn although not the gap other Nits have
PJ - beat two 2025 champs and a World finalist last summer, so clearly a title threat but weight is super deep.
Mitchell - among the biggest title locks
Levi - 2-1-3 that just medaled at SR Worlds and 174 doesn't have a clear threat to him
Rocco - ranked #1 in a tier with 3 other legit contenders
Barr - Top 3 points seem the worst case scenario
Mirasola - being undersized creates some match-up dependencies but i think he gets on the podium.

point total is about maxxed but penn state has a history of maxxing so i don't exactly feel guilty

 

[coastfan]

Relax. Don't panic. Next years team will be even better (tic)... and if the NCAA does 5 in 5 years, we could potentially get another year out of Levi, Luke, Braeden, and PJ. And maybe Ono.

But, but, but...Didn't it all come crashing down after Taylor and Ruth were gone?

 

[Nitlion1986]

i feel like i was fair. they are just projections/opinions after all.

Luke - very volatile weight where Top 12 are almost all one-takedown affairs
Blaze - as likely to win 133 as anyone
Braeden - clear AA contender but seems to be a ceiling at this time
SVN - title contender and unanimous #1 rn although not the gap other Nits have
PJ - beat two 2025 champs and a World finalist last summer, so clearly a title threat but weight is super deep.
Mitchell - among the biggest title locks
Levi - 2-1-3 that just medaled at SR Worlds and 174 doesn't have a clear threat to him
Rocco - ranked #1 in a tier with 3 other legit contenders
Barr - Top 3 points seem the worst case scenario
Mirasola - being undersized creates some match-up dependencies but i think he gets on the podium.

point total is about maxxed but penn state has a history of maxxing so i don't exactly feel guilty

I didn't mean to imply you were unfair. Those picks would have had HR from 10 years ago, when they still had some measurable false hope, accusing you of being a Cael jock sniffer. The picks are in my mind fairly accurate. I just think the Nits are going to do a smidge better.

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Willie's NCAA tournament Crystal Ball picks as of this point in the season: It sounds like his full picks are up now on his Rokfin channel, but I am not subscribed to Rokfin: Luke 1, Marcus 2 (Crookham 1 and Jax 3), Mendez 1, Echemendia 2, Davis blood round, SVN 1, Duke 1, Mitchell 1, Levi 1, Rocco 1, Barr 1, Bastida 1, AJ 2, Trumble 3, Feldman 4, Cole AA (Willie didn't specify his exact placing). So, Willie has Penn State with 9 AAs and Braeden losing in the blood round. Willie has Penn State scoring 185 team points.



0:00 - Intro
06:42 - Updated Crystal Ball Rankings
09:38 - 125lbs
15:20 - 133lbs Gonna Be Wild
27:50 - 141lbs
34:50 - 149lbs
43:25 - 157lbs
46:10 - 165lbs & 174lbs
49:20 - 184lbs - 285lbs
57:00 - Predicted Team Scores at NCAA’s
01:19:00 - Iowa/Nebraska Preview
01:28:30 - Iowa’s Lineup… No Angelo?
01:55:30 - Rest of the Weekend Slate

Iowa has been leveled. That’s why they train underground.

Should they change their mascot to the Gophers or, since that’s taken, Moles or Voles?

 

[Nitlion1986]

Should they change their mascot to the Gophers or, since that’s taken, Moles or Voles?

Every living thing serves a purpose. The Hawks show Penn State what they need to work on. Like this year they learned they have to work on countering finger ties and knee droppers. So, in reference to guys who fall to their knees in the presence of alpha dogs let's call them Nicolls.

 

[JoeBagobagels]

i feel like i was fair. they are just projections/opinions after all.

Luke - very volatile weight where Top 12 are almost all one-takedown affairs
Blaze - as likely to win 133 as anyone
Braeden - clear AA contender but seems to be a ceiling at this time
SVN - title contender and unanimous #1 rn although not the gap other Nits have
PJ - beat two 2025 champs and a World finalist last summer, so clearly a title threat but weight is super deep.
Mitchell - among the biggest title locks
Levi - 2-1-3 that just medaled at SR Worlds and 174 doesn't have a clear threat to him
Rocco - ranked #1 in a tier with 3 other legit contenders
Barr - Top 3 points seem the worst case scenario
Mirasola - being undersized creates some match-up dependencies but i think he gets on the podium.

point total is about maxxed but penn state has a history of maxxing so i don't exactly feel guilty

I have yet to watch but in my opinion Penn State could have potentially ate finalist in one of them all. As for who will win what and where I'm pretty confident about it I'm thinking 49,65,74, and 97. That's half of them and splitting the difference with the other 4 will give Penn State six champs with the other two strong possibilities.

 

[kadeeu]

Along those same lines. Here is my order of confidence in a title this year at this point. Blaze is lower mostly because of the competitiveness of the weight. A little of that for Duke at 157 as well. All the top guys at 184 are tough and Welsh will have a tough time. What would you change?

Level of confidence
1. Mitchell
2. Barr
3. Levi
4. SVN
5. Luke
6. Duke
7. Blaze
8. Welsh
9. Davis
10. Mirasola

 

[mvattivo]

i feel like i was fair. they are just projections/opinions after all.

Luke - very volatile weight where Top 12 are almost all one-takedown affairs
Blaze - as likely to win 133 as anyone
Braeden - clear AA contender but seems to be a ceiling at this time
SVN - title contender and unanimous #1 rn although not the gap other Nits have
PJ - beat two 2025 champs and a World finalist last summer, so clearly a title threat but weight is super deep.
Mitchell - among the biggest title locks
Levi - 2-1-3 that just medaled at SR Worlds and 174 doesn't have a clear threat to him
Rocco - ranked #1 in a tier with 3 other legit contenders
Barr - Top 3 points seem the worst case scenario
Mirasola - being undersized creates some match-up dependencies but i think he gets on the podium.

point total is about maxxed but penn state has a history of maxxing so i don't exactly feel guilty

I'm not sure why so many sites do rankings and so few do the crystal ball format. I prefer this format, and it definitely is more difficult to do this format. I appreciate you doing these.

 

[mvattivo]

Along those same lines. Here is my order of confidence in a title this year at this point. Blaze is lower mostly because of the competitiveness of the weight. A little of that for Duke at 157 as well. All the top guys at 184 are tough and Welsh will have a tough time. What would you change?

Level of confidence
1. Mitchell
2. Barr
3. Levi
4. SVN
5. Luke
6. Duke
7. Blaze
8. Welsh
9. Davis
10. Mirasola

I would probably move Welsh above Duke & Blaze due to the strength at the weight classes. I know Rocco has a "keep it close" style, but, he is also damn tough to score on and beat. 133 & 157 are both deep, but, I like our guy. Other than that, I have it the same as you.

 

[District 4]

Should they change their mascot to the Gophers or, since that’s taken, Moles or Voles?

Racoons

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Along those same lines. Here is my order of confidence in a title this year at this point. Blaze is lower mostly because of the competitiveness of the weight. A little of that for Duke at 157 as well. All the top guys at 184 are tough and Welsh will have a tough time. What would you change?

Level of confidence
1. Mitchell
2. Barr
3. Levi
4. SVN
5. Luke
6. Duke
7. Blaze
8. Welsh
9. Davis
10. Mirasola

I would rank them similarly. I will also take a stab at bonus points for each:

Mitchell-- 7+
Barr-- 6+
Levi-- 5+
SVN-- 3.5+
Luke-- 3.5+
Duke-- 4.5+
Blaze-- 3.5+
Welsh-- 2.5+
Davis-- 3.5+ (which includes some bonus points in the consolation bracket)
Mirasola-- 3.5+ (which includes some bonus points in the consolation bracket)

**42.5 total** which would break Penn State's NCAA record of 34.5 bonus points last season

Edit: Flo currently has Penn State at 148.5 points. Add to that my 42.5 bonus point estimate and you get 191 points, which is just over 3% more than the 185 points Willie predicted.

This would be a phenomenal tournament for Penn State, but we have the horses this year to do it. Also, unlike dual meets, most wrestlers try to open it up at the NCAA tournament. This definitely favors Penn State as the current roster excels at scoring off of their opponents' shots, generally have superior offense, and have the ability to pin from scrambles. It also helps that a few of the weights don't have much depth, which favors our hammers getting a lot of bonus points in the early rounds of the tournament.

 

[kingstown]

I can't hate on any of the picks from 149-197, but PSU will not win 6 NCAA straight finals matches... right?

It won't be easy in any weight, but 197 will be very tough Elam is a beast. Barr is a bad man so who knows.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I would rank them similarly. I will also take a stab at bonus points for each:

Mitchell-- 7+
Barr-- 6+
Levi-- 5+
SVN-- 3.5+
Luke-- 3.5+
Duke-- 4.5+
Blaze-- 3.5+
Welsh-- 2.5+
Davis-- 3.5+ (which includes some bonus points in the consolation bracket)
Mirasola-- 3.5+ (which includes some bonus points in the consolation bracket)

**42.5 total** which would break Penn State's NCAA record of 34.5 bonus points last season

Edit: Flo currently has Penn State at 148.5 points. Add to that my 42.5 bonus point estimate and you get 191 points, which is just over 3% more than the 185 points Willie predicted.

This would be a phenomenal tournament for Penn State, but we have the horses this year to do it. Also, unlike dual meets, most wrestlers try to open it up at the NCAA tournament. This definitely favors Penn State as the current roster excels at scoring off of their opponents' shots, generally have superior offense, and have the ability to pin from scrambles. It also helps that a few of the weights don't have much depth, which favors our hammers getting a lot of bonus points in the early rounds of the tournament.

Sorry to be That Guy...

BUT

34.5 is only the "record" because of bonus point inflation.

In 1992 all the bonus amounts were half of what they are today. A major was 0.5, a tech was 0.75 and a pinfall was 1 point. If you rescore the 1992 Iowa results using today's bonus values you get 40 bonus points.

The good news is that your 42.5 would genuinely, unquestionably, undeniably be the record.

This is what the record looks like when you normalize to today's scoring rules.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Sorry to be That Guy...

BUT

34.5 is only the "record" because of bonus point inflation. In 1992 all the bonus amounts were half of what they are today. A major was 0.5, a tech was 0.75 and a pinfall was 1 point. If you rescore the 1992 Iowa results using today's bonus values you get 40 bonus points.

The good news is that your 42.5 would genuinely, unquestionably, undeniably be the record.

Gotcha, and thank you. I look forward to when you complete the normalized numbers for those applicable records. The normalized numbers are what are most important to me as a fan as it allows me to fairly compare all the records no matter what scoring system was in place when they occurred. Thanks again for all your hard work in compiling this data.

 

[Random4598375]

Maybe we dodged a bullet. 5 in 5 might actually hurt us in terms of roster management. Conceptually we could see Lilledahl, Blaze, Davis and PJ similar to Zain, take redshirts next year after starting just to help things work out. 5 in 5 could push a few to the portal. I think the redshirt provides more options for Cael managing the log jam much better than 5 in 5 which will make it worse.

We're on a crash course with having 3 undefeated reigning champs including 2 true frosh red shirt next year. Yikes.

 

[El_Jefe]

Along those same lines. Here is my order of confidence in a title this year at this point. Blaze is lower mostly because of the competitiveness of the weight. A little of that for Duke at 157 as well. All the top guys at 184 are tough and Welsh will have a tough time. What would you change?

Level of confidence
1. Mitchell
2. Barr
3. Levi
4. SVN
5. Luke
6. Duke
7. Blaze
8. Welsh
9. Davis
10. Mirasola

I'd flip Levi and Barr. Partly because of Levi's senior world silver where he beat Usmanov and Saipudinov, then his U23 world gold a month later. And partly because there is no Elam at 174.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Gotcha, and thank you. I look forward to when you complete the normalized numbers for those applicable records. The normalized numbers are what are most important to me as a fan as it allows me to fairly compare all the records no matter what scoring system was in place when they occurred. Thanks again for all your hard work in compiling this data.

For you and the other completists in the crowd, this is what the top 10 all-time normalized bonus points will look like when it is on the site:

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This one gives you an idea how schizophrenic wrestling scoring has been over time.



The dotted lines are the discontinued bonus types.

 

[Anon1683312534]

I'm not sure why so many sites do rankings and so few do the crystal ball format. I prefer this format, and it definitely is more difficult to do this format. I appreciate you doing these.

Why do people make such a big deal about opinions?

 

[Col]

For you and the other completists in the crowd, this is what the top 10 all-time normalized bonus points will look like when it is on the site:

Question: Is this normalized by type of bonus or does it include the normalization of each score leading to the type of bonus?

 

[Nitlion1986]

Why do people make such a big deal about opinions?

Because my opinion is more better.

 

[Dogwelder]

Why do people make such a big deal about opinions?

In my opinion, it is because they are French, and they want to make French opinion soup.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Question: Is this normalized by type of bonus or does it include the normalization of each score leading to the type of bonus?

The available data is not granular enough for each score. And even if it were there is a second order problem. Wrestling stops at the barriers; sometimes voluntarily (protecting the major), and sometimes involuntarily (ref blows whistle on TF). No matter what there is a source of error.

It is normalized for pinfall as a type and score difference for the others as the definition of the others has been variable (see my above post)

 

[Twisterky]

8 Finalists! Yes! Looking forward to Mirasola. I see how he is slowly adjusting to wrestling heavier guys. That Lehigh match was a big learning opportunity for him.

 

[Tryingtodoitright]

The available data is not granular enough for each score. And even if it were there is a second order problem. Wrestling stops at the barriers; sometimes voluntarily (protecting the major), and sometimes involuntarily (ref blows whistle on TF). No matter what there is a source of error.

It is normalized for pinfall as a type and score difference for the others as the definition of the others has been variable (see my above post)

Wow, so, like, what is your day job? Quantum physics mathematician? Cryptographer? Amish Taxi Driver?