Bac's thread was first, so maybe Tango should merge this one into it?
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
that’s not wishcasing. That’s literally output from a model run, lol.
but as has been said many times - too soon to post or talk amounts
So.....then why is it posted here to talk about?
Not sure why people are posting amounts already. ask the people posting them?!
Dan Zarrow bringing the pain to all the wishcasters out there:
"0 TO 20 INCHES... As I mentioned in my morning weather blog post, that is literally the spread of possible snowfall totals for this weekend's snow storm at this time. (Actually, if you account for all afternoon model guidance, I would say it's more like 0 to 28 inches. Eh, details.)
If your reaction is that's a ridiculous forecast? You're absolutely right! That's the point!
I am NOT interested in chasing the minute-by-minute play-by-play changes in forecast models right now. Because it means absolutely NOTHING with over 100 hours to go until first snowflakes (probably early Sunday morning). We're going to play this out nice and slowly and carefully, as always.
Honestly, I don't know which way I'm leaning on this thing - big snow, little snow, or no snow. Will the ridiculously cold air dome win out, pushing the storm system south of New Jersey? Or will the ridiculously cold air contribute to a high snow-to-water ratio, yielding light, fluffy snow that accumulates very quickly?
Nobody can definitively answer that right now. If they say they can, they're lying.
Some are posting raw model images, wild predictions, and colorful probability maps that even I don't understand. At this stage of the game, so much of it is just hype, plain and simple."
"0 TO 20 INCHES... As I mentioned in my morning weather blog post, that is literally the spread of possible snowfall totals for this weekend's snow storm at this time. (Actually, if you account for all afternoon model guidance, I would say it's more like 0 to 28 inches. Eh, details.)
If your reaction is that's a ridiculous forecast? You're absolutely right! That's the point!
I am NOT interested in chasing the minute-by-minute play-by-play changes in forecast models right now. Because it means absolutely NOTHING with over 100 hours to go until first snowflakes (probably early Sunday morning). We're going to play this out nice and slowly and carefully, as always.
Honestly, I don't know which way I'm leaning on this thing - big snow, little snow, or no snow. Will the ridiculously cold air dome win out, pushing the storm system south of New Jersey? Or will the ridiculously cold air contribute to a high snow-to-water ratio, yielding light, fluffy snow that accumulates very quickly?
Nobody can definitively answer that right now. If they say they can, they're lying.
Some are posting raw model images, wild predictions, and colorful probability maps that even I don't understand. At this stage of the game, so much of it is just hype, plain and simple."
I had to Google who Jacob Frey was before I could even respond.
Leave it to someone whose nose is permanently attached to Bac’s jock to bring f*cking politics into a weather thread.
That run was an outlier. The GFS moved the snow/sleet/ZR north quite a bit at 0Z and is now in line with the other models finally. That means you'll likely get snow then sleet then ZR and maybe a lot of it, which sucks. I'd suggest using the NBM until the NWS puts out some forecast maps probably on Thursday morning.
TV is wrong and well behind on the models. The 12Z GFS had nada for us, the 18Z GFS had several inches and the new 0Z has 8-12" for us, in line with the other models finally - see the slide show below. That's why that model sucks and why I've been ignoring it as per my earlier posts. Others who don't like snow tend to hand their hats on the least snowy model.
The usual model post for 0Z. We finally have near consensus now on model snowfall - in fact the best model consensus I can ever recall 4.5 days out - as the non-snowy GFS and AIGFS at 0Z jumped way up to the ranges seen in the other models at 0Z, plus most of the other models bumped up by 1-3" relative to 12Z; the consensus is roughly on this being an 8-14" major snowstorm for CNJ at 10:1 ratios and a 12-21" snowstorm if we get the 15:1 ratios many of us expect given the cold temps in the column and the dynamics of the system in the dendritic growth zone where most of the snow crystals are produced. This is not as conservative an assumption as it was at 12Z, when the Kuchera ratios were 17-18:1, as they're more like 13-17:1 (wider variations being seen). Doesn't mean anyone is forecasting those amounts yet, but right now those amounts look at least fairly likely.
However, we're still almost 4.5 days away from the event start sometime before sunrise on Sunday (vs. the 0Z models which initialized at 7 pm EST; the snow looks to generally be over by noon on Monday), and a lot can still happen to change the evolution of this storm, but this one is a bit different in a couple of important ways from some others that busted, like 2/20/25, which was relying on exquisite timing of a phase to get a coastal low to come up the coast. For this storm we have a southern stream storm starting out near Baja and heading across the southern US bringing copious precip into a massive cold high pressure area over us, which will is less likely to suppress an approaching strong storm completely - we could certainly see models back off some, but I'd be stunned if we don't get at least 2-4" in CNJ and a bit more south of 276/195 as a worst case. So the bulleted model summaries below are for far EPA/CNJ between 78 and 276/195 and include the immediate NENJ/NYC Metro near/along 95 (as these are often very similar to Trenton to NB); as a guess add a few inches more south of 276/195 due to more precip there and subtract a few inches north of 78, although ratios will likely be higher there, so that may offset less precip.
One fly in the ointment is that some of the models at 0Z are showing sleet mixing in for the last 1/4 or so of the precip, which would hold snowfall down a bit, although 8" of 15:1 snow (12" depth) followed by 1" of sleet for 9" on the ground (and 11" worth of 10:1 snow by mass) is still a very impactful system. The sleet mixing in is due to some mid-level warmth punching in and getting temps up around 32F, leading to some melting aloft and refreezing as sleet, despite surface temps not getting above 20F (they do get near 32F at the coast in some runs). We'll have to see if that becomes an issue for this storm in future runs.
- The Euro shows 10-12" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 15-18" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 7-10".
- The Euro AIFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 5-8."
- The GFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run showed nada for CNJ.
- The CMC shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ and the 12Z run was 7-11".
- The UK shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ and the 12Z run was 9-12".
- The ICON shows 8-10" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-15" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ and the 12Z run was also 8-10".
- The NBM (model blend) shows 11-14" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 16-21" at 15:1 ratios and the 12Z run was 8-12".
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This seems to be ticking north mostly yesterday on the model runs. Any chance this ticks too far north and people in south/central Jersey end up getting freezing rain and very little snow?
Dan Zarrow was just saying the Euro model is showing something like this after its latest run
Dan Zarrow was just saying the Euro model is showing something like this after its latest run
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Nope, happily I just don’t live in a world where literally everything gets viewed through political lenses and one party is always the boogeyman.
My weather app has 15-18” for Bergen County. I don’t believe it. I assume it will constantly change.
So.....then why is it posted here to talk about?
So people shouldn't be posting snowfall amounts from models this early?
Yikes! This might get awkward.
Post in thread 'OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26' https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/ot-tracking-winter-storm-fern-1-25-26.8641441/post-180386817
I’ve seen this movie before. I’ll wait to Friday to see what the model consensus is for Sun. Too early now. Is this suppose to be a big, wound up nor’easter up the coast or one of those Midwest storms with a secondary development along the east coast? Those set ups have a high bust factor.
The models mostly moved north with the low and the precip last night at 0Z, bringing warmer temps aloft for most and even at the surface near the coast near the end of the storm, but all of those models had 3/4 or so of the precip done by then without any mixing for the coast and only a little mixing at the end for 95 and NW of 95. But if things continue to trend that way (they did not at 6Z this morning) then yes we could see more sleet and maybe even some freezing rain and ice for the coast. That's why nobody is making any forecasts this far out.
Also, with greater phasing as seen last night on some runs, comes a more dynamic storm with more precip, so even if the last 1/4 is sleet, if the QPF goes from 0.8" to 1.2", one would still get more snow and then some sleet on top.
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Neither really. It's more of an overrunning SW flow event with the storm moving from Baja to Texas to NC/VA bringing a lot of precip to us with very cold air in place, meaning snow. What's not clear is whether a coastal forms as it nears us and also with some phasing prior to it reaching us, how "amped" does it get with bringing a lot of moisture and some warmer air aloft after a bunch of snow has fallen.
Excellent discussion from the NWS-Philly and, for now, they're thinking is that the sleet line is unlikely to make it as far north as CNJ (away from the coast), as per the part in bold, but we're still 4 days out, so this can still change and we could see a lot more sleet or no sleet at all in CNJ and north of CNJ.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
625 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be
affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and
potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area
are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains
uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall.
Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast
Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level
energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave
trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday
these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree
"phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low
pressure through the southeastern states then north and east
towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday.
Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the
placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of
upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be
some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will
ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This
will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip
types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area
has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall
totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with
this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern
Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the
urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that
total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+
inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of
the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we
actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has
trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for
very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended
north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva
that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday.
Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over
the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to
certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows
Saturday night look to once again be down into the single
numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south.
Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across
the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to
increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday
night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into
adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as
Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track
to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold
airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or
change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur.
If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is
likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down
across the area into Monday.
As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total
snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question
of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s
looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect
the area with significant precip with the question then shifting
to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix
or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest
snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor
vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while
stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within
these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide
or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W
precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take
at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on
the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur
within our County Warning area.
Here's the latest NBM (model blend), which the NWS typically relies heavily on in their forecasting, so starting to post this 3.5 days away seems reasonable to me and is a lot easier than summarizing every model, especially since almost all of those models (except the AI ones) are included in the NBM. It just keeps going up since yesterday. Their snowfall seems a bit higher than most models (at least at 10:1, so their "model ratio" looks to be 15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF or liquid precip), which is unusual. And whether or not there's some sleet for the last 1/3 of the storm, this would still be a monster snowstorm for just about everyone.
This is still not a forecast, as we're still 3.5ish days out from the start of the event and we know a lot can still change, although at least a front end thump of 6"+ for the entire region on Sunday morning seems almost certain now.
The 12Z GFS is all snow for most (8-12" at 10:1 ratios) while the CMC is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. That's why it's stil too early to make a forecast, IMO.
Edit: the 12Z CMC ensembles were much more like the GFS/Euro/UK/ICON with little to no sleet as the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. The 12Z GFS, AIFS, UK, Euro and ICON all show about 7-12" of snow area wide (even at the coast, as any sleet comes in after 90% of the precip is over) at 10:1 ratios, which could easily be 10-16" with 13-15-1 ratios (which is why the NBM is so high). Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
This is still not a forecast, as we're still 3.5ish days out from the start of the event and we know a lot can still change, although at least a front end thump of 6"+ for the entire region on Sunday morning seems almost certain now.
The 12Z GFS is all snow for most (8-12" at 10:1 ratios) while the CMC is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. That's why it's stil too early to make a forecast, IMO.
Edit: the 12Z CMC ensembles were much more like the GFS/Euro/UK/ICON with little to no sleet as the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. The 12Z GFS, AIFS, UK, Euro and ICON all show about 7-12" of snow area wide (even at the coast, as any sleet comes in after 90% of the precip is over) at 10:1 ratios, which could easily be 10-16" with 13-15-1 ratios (which is why the NBM is so high). Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
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Already a thread on the weekend storm tracking thanks to TKR Weather King bac. Mods should temporarily close this long and winding general "winter weather" thread!
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26 - Page 2 - Forums
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26 - Page 2 - Forums
You say clearly this is not a forecast 3.5 days out. How far out would you safely be confident in a forecast? 48 hours?
Better yet, you can leave and go spend your time over in that one. Please
Well I was planning on doing just that, but now I'll hang around here too. You're welcome.
Well the low out in Mexico doesn't start forming until about 48 hours from now and the pieces of energy that drive our storm won't be ashore until tomorrow afternoon, so maybe tomorrow evening, about 54 hours before the start of the storm on Sunday morning? We won't see a NWS snow/precip forecast for the full storm until about Friday at 7 am (they do 72 hour forecasts for that), so maybe even not until then. The only thing most have high confidence in right now is getting a front end thump of snow Sunday morning for a likely 6" of snow; every model shows a front end thump, but divergence is significant after that.
you guys talk too much
just give us updated estimates on totals for north, central, and south jersey
just give us updated estimates on totals for north, central, and south jersey
In most of the models, the heaviest snow is over by 7 pm Sunday (maybe a bit of sleet by then, which is no better for driving), but roads (even major roads) may still be in bad shape, having gotten 8"+ of snow with temps in the 20s even in Freehold and Philly, so salt won't work as well, so the drive likely won't be easy. More importantly many, many flights will be delayed or cancelled for sure.
Summary: Note that this is NOT a forecast - it's just some thoughts on what we're seeing from the models and mets so far. Anyway, it's still looking like at least a 6" snowfall for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC region starting before sunrise on Sunday, with that 6" likely coming by noon. After that, through late Sunday into early Monday, most models show another 6" or so of snow, but a few show some warm air aloft making for a mix of sleet and snow, which could hold additional accumulations down to 2-3" (but the same mass, just in 8-9” of depth instead of 12” of depth, so just as hard to drive in or shovel), especially south of 276/195 (and towards the coast). If no changeover and if ratios are 13-15:1 (inches of snow per inch of liquid), which they could be, 12-18" is on the table, as per several models and the NBM (model blend, below). And it's always possible the storm will drive further north bringing a few inches of snow followed by a few inches of sleet and maybe some rain, but no models are showing this. The NWS will likely issue their first snowfall map on Thursday afternoon (they forecast 72 hours out); their discussion is in bold below.
Details: The 12Z Euro/AIFS/GFS/UK/ICON are all showing about 7-12" of 10:1 ratio snow for just about everyone which could be 10-16" if we get 13-15:1 ratios; one or two of these end as a little sleet or freezing drizzle, but after 80-90% of the precip has fallen as snow. The one outlier model was the 12Z CMC which is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. However, the 12Z CMC ensembles showed little to no sleet so the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
Below are the total snowfall and QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) graphics for the latest 19Z NBM (model blend), which the NWS typically relies heavily on in their forecasting, as can be seen in the NWS discussion below, so starting to post this 3.5 days away seems reasonable to me and is a lot easier than summarizing every model, especially since almost all of those models (except the AI ones) are included in the NBM. Their snowfall forecast clearly uses a "model ratio" which looks to be 13-15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF or liquid precip. And whether or not there's some sleet for the last 1/3 of the storm, this would still be a monster snowstorm for just about everyone. As modeled in the NBM and most other models.
This is definitely still looking like a major snow, sleet and ice storm (which will be crippling in large areas that look to get 3/4" or more of ice accretion, which would bring down many trees and power lines causing weeks long power outages) from Texas through parts of AR/LA/MS/AL/GA/TN/NC/SE/NC/KY/VA with the exact forecast still unclear and many locations will get all three precip types, often with the pattern of starting as snow, changing to sleet and then freezing rain due to the warm air advection aloft and then maybe changing back to snow as the storm passes by and colder air wraps in. The general weather.gov site is great for people anywhere in the US. Also have the usual NWS-Philly and AmericanWx links below for those who want more details.
https://www.weather.gov/
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62527-possible.../page/36/...
𝐀𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐍𝐉
𝟐𝟑𝟑 𝐏𝐌 𝐄𝐒𝐓 𝐖𝐞𝐝 𝐉𝐚𝐧 𝟐𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔
𝐊𝐄𝐘 𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐒𝐀𝐆𝐄 𝟑...𝐋𝐨𝐰 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬, 𝐚𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐱,
𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠.
𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐋𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐡𝐢𝐨 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲 𝐨𝐧
𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥
𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚.
𝐀 𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐲 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧
𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐬 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐆𝐮𝐥𝐟 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐮𝐥𝐟 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭
𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐌𝐢𝐝-𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐜𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐚 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲
𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭.
𝐒𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧
𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐚𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐰𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐰
𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐲 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐛𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚
𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞
𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲,
𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐚 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝
𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲. 𝐒𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲
𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠.
𝟏𝟑𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐍𝐁𝐌 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝟗𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟔
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟒𝟖
𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝟕 𝐚𝐦 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧 𝟖𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟗𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟔 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧
𝐏𝐨𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐬, 𝐋𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲. 𝐈𝐧 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧,
𝟏𝟑𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐍𝐁𝐌 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝟕𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟖𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟐
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟒𝟖
𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝟕 𝐚𝐦 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝟔𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟕𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟐 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚.
𝐈𝐧 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟑𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐍𝐁𝐌 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝟐𝟓 𝐭𝐨 𝟑𝟓 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟎.𝟏 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟏𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟐𝟎
𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟎.𝟏 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈-𝟗𝟓
𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐬𝐲𝐥𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲, 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐢𝐱𝐢𝐧𝐠.
𝐈𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟐𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐆𝐅𝐒 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡
𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐡
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐂𝐌𝐖𝐅 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡
𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐢𝐫 𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐟𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥
𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬, 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚.
𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞
𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦, 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐭
𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫.
Details: The 12Z Euro/AIFS/GFS/UK/ICON are all showing about 7-12" of 10:1 ratio snow for just about everyone which could be 10-16" if we get 13-15:1 ratios; one or two of these end as a little sleet or freezing drizzle, but after 80-90% of the precip has fallen as snow. The one outlier model was the 12Z CMC which is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. However, the 12Z CMC ensembles showed little to no sleet so the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
Below are the total snowfall and QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) graphics for the latest 19Z NBM (model blend), which the NWS typically relies heavily on in their forecasting, as can be seen in the NWS discussion below, so starting to post this 3.5 days away seems reasonable to me and is a lot easier than summarizing every model, especially since almost all of those models (except the AI ones) are included in the NBM. Their snowfall forecast clearly uses a "model ratio" which looks to be 13-15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF or liquid precip. And whether or not there's some sleet for the last 1/3 of the storm, this would still be a monster snowstorm for just about everyone. As modeled in the NBM and most other models.
This is definitely still looking like a major snow, sleet and ice storm (which will be crippling in large areas that look to get 3/4" or more of ice accretion, which would bring down many trees and power lines causing weeks long power outages) from Texas through parts of AR/LA/MS/AL/GA/TN/NC/SE/NC/KY/VA with the exact forecast still unclear and many locations will get all three precip types, often with the pattern of starting as snow, changing to sleet and then freezing rain due to the warm air advection aloft and then maybe changing back to snow as the storm passes by and colder air wraps in. The general weather.gov site is great for people anywhere in the US. Also have the usual NWS-Philly and AmericanWx links below for those who want more details.
https://www.weather.gov/
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62527-possible.../page/36/...
𝐀𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐍𝐉
𝟐𝟑𝟑 𝐏𝐌 𝐄𝐒𝐓 𝐖𝐞𝐝 𝐉𝐚𝐧 𝟐𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔
𝐊𝐄𝐘 𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐒𝐀𝐆𝐄 𝟑...𝐋𝐨𝐰 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬, 𝐚𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐱,
𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠.
𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐋𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐡𝐢𝐨 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲 𝐨𝐧
𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥
𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚.
𝐀 𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐲 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧
𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐬 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐆𝐮𝐥𝐟 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐮𝐥𝐟 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭
𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐌𝐢𝐝-𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐜𝐨𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐚 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲
𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭.
𝐒𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧
𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐚𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐰𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐰
𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐲 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐛𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚
𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞
𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲,
𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐚 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝
𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲. 𝐒𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲
𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠.
𝟏𝟑𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐍𝐁𝐌 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝟗𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟔
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟒𝟖
𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝟕 𝐚𝐦 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧 𝟖𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟗𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟔 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧
𝐏𝐨𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐬, 𝐋𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲. 𝐈𝐧 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧,
𝟏𝟑𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐍𝐁𝐌 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝟕𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟖𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟐
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐲
𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟒𝟖
𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝟕 𝐚𝐦 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝟔𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟕𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟐 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞
𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚.
𝐈𝐧 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟑𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐍𝐁𝐌 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝟐𝟓 𝐭𝐨 𝟑𝟓 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟎.𝟏 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟏𝟎 𝐭𝐨 𝟐𝟎
𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟎.𝟏 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈-𝟗𝟓
𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐬𝐲𝐥𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲, 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐢𝐱𝐢𝐧𝐠.
𝐈𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟏𝟐𝐙/𝟐𝟏 𝐆𝐅𝐒 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡
𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐡
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐂𝐌𝐖𝐅 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡
𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐢𝐫 𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐟𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥
𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬, 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐚.
𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞
𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦, 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐭
𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫.
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