Bac's thread was first, so maybe Tango should merge this one into it?
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
thatโs not wishcasing. Thatโs literally output from a model run, lol.
but as has been said many times - too soon to post or talk amounts
So.....then why is it posted here to talk about?
Not sure why people are posting amounts already. ask the people posting them?!
Dan Zarrow bringing the pain to all the wishcasters out there:
"0 TO 20 INCHES... As I mentioned in my morning weather blog post, that is literally the spread of possible snowfall totals for this weekend's snow storm at this time. (Actually, if you account for all afternoon model guidance, I would say it's more like 0 to 28 inches. Eh, details.)
If your reaction is that's a ridiculous forecast? You're absolutely right! That's the point!
I am NOT interested in chasing the minute-by-minute play-by-play changes in forecast models right now. Because it means absolutely NOTHING with over 100 hours to go until first snowflakes (probably early Sunday morning). We're going to play this out nice and slowly and carefully, as always.
Honestly, I don't know which way I'm leaning on this thing - big snow, little snow, or no snow. Will the ridiculously cold air dome win out, pushing the storm system south of New Jersey? Or will the ridiculously cold air contribute to a high snow-to-water ratio, yielding light, fluffy snow that accumulates very quickly?
Nobody can definitively answer that right now. If they say they can, they're lying.
Some are posting raw model images, wild predictions, and colorful probability maps that even I don't understand. At this stage of the game, so much of it is just hype, plain and simple."
"0 TO 20 INCHES... As I mentioned in my morning weather blog post, that is literally the spread of possible snowfall totals for this weekend's snow storm at this time. (Actually, if you account for all afternoon model guidance, I would say it's more like 0 to 28 inches. Eh, details.)
If your reaction is that's a ridiculous forecast? You're absolutely right! That's the point!
I am NOT interested in chasing the minute-by-minute play-by-play changes in forecast models right now. Because it means absolutely NOTHING with over 100 hours to go until first snowflakes (probably early Sunday morning). We're going to play this out nice and slowly and carefully, as always.
Honestly, I don't know which way I'm leaning on this thing - big snow, little snow, or no snow. Will the ridiculously cold air dome win out, pushing the storm system south of New Jersey? Or will the ridiculously cold air contribute to a high snow-to-water ratio, yielding light, fluffy snow that accumulates very quickly?
Nobody can definitively answer that right now. If they say they can, they're lying.
Some are posting raw model images, wild predictions, and colorful probability maps that even I don't understand. At this stage of the game, so much of it is just hype, plain and simple."
I had to Google who Jacob Frey was before I could even respond.
Leave it to someone whose nose is permanently attached to Bacโs jock to bring f*cking politics into a weather thread.
That run was an outlier. The GFS moved the snow/sleet/ZR north quite a bit at 0Z and is now in line with the other models finally. That means you'll likely get snow then sleet then ZR and maybe a lot of it, which sucks. I'd suggest using the NBM until the NWS puts out some forecast maps probably on Thursday morning.
TV is wrong and well behind on the models. The 12Z GFS had nada for us, the 18Z GFS had several inches and the new 0Z has 8-12" for us, in line with the other models finally - see the slide show below. That's why that model sucks and why I've been ignoring it as per my earlier posts. Others who don't like snow tend to hand their hats on the least snowy model.
The usual model post for 0Z. We finally have near consensus now on model snowfall - in fact the best model consensus I can ever recall 4.5 days out - as the non-snowy GFS and AIGFS at 0Z jumped way up to the ranges seen in the other models at 0Z, plus most of the other models bumped up by 1-3" relative to 12Z; the consensus is roughly on this being an 8-14" major snowstorm for CNJ at 10:1 ratios and a 12-21" snowstorm if we get the 15:1 ratios many of us expect given the cold temps in the column and the dynamics of the system in the dendritic growth zone where most of the snow crystals are produced. This is not as conservative an assumption as it was at 12Z, when the Kuchera ratios were 17-18:1, as they're more like 13-17:1 (wider variations being seen). Doesn't mean anyone is forecasting those amounts yet, but right now those amounts look at least fairly likely.
However, we're still almost 4.5 days away from the event start sometime before sunrise on Sunday (vs. the 0Z models which initialized at 7 pm EST; the snow looks to generally be over by noon on Monday), and a lot can still happen to change the evolution of this storm, but this one is a bit different in a couple of important ways from some others that busted, like 2/20/25, which was relying on exquisite timing of a phase to get a coastal low to come up the coast. For this storm we have a southern stream storm starting out near Baja and heading across the southern US bringing copious precip into a massive cold high pressure area over us, which will is less likely to suppress an approaching strong storm completely - we could certainly see models back off some, but I'd be stunned if we don't get at least 2-4" in CNJ and a bit more south of 276/195 as a worst case. So the bulleted model summaries below are for far EPA/CNJ between 78 and 276/195 and include the immediate NENJ/NYC Metro near/along 95 (as these are often very similar to Trenton to NB); as a guess add a few inches more south of 276/195 due to more precip there and subtract a few inches north of 78, although ratios will likely be higher there, so that may offset less precip.
One fly in the ointment is that some of the models at 0Z are showing sleet mixing in for the last 1/4 or so of the precip, which would hold snowfall down a bit, although 8" of 15:1 snow (12" depth) followed by 1" of sleet for 9" on the ground (and 11" worth of 10:1 snow by mass) is still a very impactful system. The sleet mixing in is due to some mid-level warmth punching in and getting temps up around 32F, leading to some melting aloft and refreezing as sleet, despite surface temps not getting above 20F (they do get near 32F at the coast in some runs). We'll have to see if that becomes an issue for this storm in future runs.
- The Euro shows 10-12" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 15-18" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 7-10".
- The Euro AIFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 5-8."
- The GFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run showed nada for CNJ.
- The CMC shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ and the 12Z run was 7-11".
- The UK shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ and the 12Z run was 9-12".
- The ICON shows 8-10" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-15" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ and the 12Z run was also 8-10".
- The NBM (model blend) shows 11-14" at a 10:1 ratio for CNJ and 16-21" at 15:1 ratios and the 12Z run was 8-12".
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This seems to be ticking north mostly yesterday on the model runs. Any chance this ticks too far north and people in south/central Jersey end up getting freezing rain and very little snow?
Dan Zarrow was just saying the Euro model is showing something like this after its latest run
Dan Zarrow was just saying the Euro model is showing something like this after its latest run
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Nope, happily I just donโt live in a world where literally everything gets viewed through political lenses and one party is always the boogeyman.
My weather app has 15-18โ for Bergen County. I donโt believe it. I assume it will constantly change.
So.....then why is it posted here to talk about?
So people shouldn't be posting snowfall amounts from models this early?
Yikes! This might get awkward.
Post in thread 'OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26' https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/ot-tracking-winter-storm-fern-1-25-26.8641441/post-180386817
Iโve seen this movie before. Iโll wait to Friday to see what the model consensus is for Sun. Too early now. Is this suppose to be a big, wound up norโeaster up the coast or one of those Midwest storms with a secondary development along the east coast? Those set ups have a high bust factor.
The models mostly moved north with the low and the precip last night at 0Z, bringing warmer temps aloft for most and even at the surface near the coast near the end of the storm, but all of those models had 3/4 or so of the precip done by then without any mixing for the coast and only a little mixing at the end for 95 and NW of 95. But if things continue to trend that way (they did not at 6Z this morning) then yes we could see more sleet and maybe even some freezing rain and ice for the coast. That's why nobody is making any forecasts this far out.
Also, with greater phasing as seen last night on some runs, comes a more dynamic storm with more precip, so even if the last 1/4 is sleet, if the QPF goes from 0.8" to 1.2", one would still get more snow and then some sleet on top.
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Neither really. It's more of an overrunning SW flow event with the storm moving from Baja to Texas to NC/VA bringing a lot of precip to us with very cold air in place, meaning snow. What's not clear is whether a coastal forms as it nears us and also with some phasing prior to it reaching us, how "amped" does it get with bringing a lot of moisture and some warmer air aloft after a bunch of snow has fallen.
Excellent discussion from the NWS-Philly and, for now, they're thinking is that the sleet line is unlikely to make it as far north as CNJ (away from the coast), as per the part in bold, but we're still 4 days out, so this can still change and we could see a lot more sleet or no sleet at all in CNJ and north of CNJ.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
625 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026
KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be
affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and
potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area
are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains
uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall.
Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast
Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level
energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave
trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday
these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree
"phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low
pressure through the southeastern states then north and east
towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday.
Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the
placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of
upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be
some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will
ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This
will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip
types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area
has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall
totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with
this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern
Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the
urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that
total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+
inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of
the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we
actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has
trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for
very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended
north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva
that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday.
Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over
the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to
certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows
Saturday night look to once again be down into the single
numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south.
Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across
the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to
increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday
night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into
adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as
Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track
to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold
airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or
change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur.
If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is
likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down
across the area into Monday.
As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total
snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question
of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s
looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect
the area with significant precip with the question then shifting
to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix
or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest
snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor
vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while
stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within
these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide
or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W
precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take
at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on
the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur
within our County Warning area.
Here's the latest NBM (model blend), which the NWS typically relies heavily on in their forecasting, so starting to post this 3.5 days away seems reasonable to me and is a lot easier than summarizing every model, especially since almost all of those models (except the AI ones) are included in the NBM. It just keeps going up since yesterday. Their snowfall seems a bit higher than most models (at least at 10:1, so their "model ratio" looks to be 15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF or liquid precip), which is unusual. And whether or not there's some sleet for the last 1/3 of the storm, this would still be a monster snowstorm for just about everyone.
This is still not a forecast, as we're still 3.5ish days out from the start of the event and we know a lot can still change, although at least a front end thump of 6"+ for the entire region on Sunday morning seems almost certain now.
The 12Z GFS is all snow for most (8-12" at 10:1 ratios) while the CMC is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. That's why it's stil too early to make a forecast, IMO.
Edit: the 12Z CMC ensembles were much more like the GFS/Euro/UK/ICON with little to no sleet as the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. The 12Z GFS, AIFS, UK, Euro and ICON all show about 7-12" of snow area wide (even at the coast, as any sleet comes in after 90% of the precip is over) at 10:1 ratios, which could easily be 10-16" with 13-15-1 ratios (which is why the NBM is so high). Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
This is still not a forecast, as we're still 3.5ish days out from the start of the event and we know a lot can still change, although at least a front end thump of 6"+ for the entire region on Sunday morning seems almost certain now.
The 12Z GFS is all snow for most (8-12" at 10:1 ratios) while the CMC is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. That's why it's stil too early to make a forecast, IMO.
Edit: the 12Z CMC ensembles were much more like the GFS/Euro/UK/ICON with little to no sleet as the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. The 12Z GFS, AIFS, UK, Euro and ICON all show about 7-12" of snow area wide (even at the coast, as any sleet comes in after 90% of the precip is over) at 10:1 ratios, which could easily be 10-16" with 13-15-1 ratios (which is why the NBM is so high). Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
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Already a thread on the weekend storm tracking thanks to TKR Weather King bac. Mods should temporarily close this long and winding general "winter weather" thread!
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26 - Page 2 - Forums
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26 - Page 2 - Forums
You say clearly this is not a forecast 3.5 days out. How far out would you safely be confident in a forecast? 48 hours?
Better yet, you can leave and go spend your time over in that one. Please
Well I was planning on doing just that, but now I'll hang around here too. You're welcome.
Well the low out in Mexico doesn't start forming until about 48 hours from now and the pieces of energy that drive our storm won't be ashore until tomorrow afternoon, so maybe tomorrow evening, about 54 hours before the start of the storm on Sunday morning? We won't see a NWS snow/precip forecast for the full storm until about Friday at 7 am (they do 72 hour forecasts for that), so maybe even not until then. The only thing most have high confidence in right now is getting a front end thump of snow Sunday morning for a likely 6" of snow; every model shows a front end thump, but divergence is significant after that.
you guys talk too much
just give us updated estimates on totals for north, central, and south jersey
just give us updated estimates on totals for north, central, and south jersey
In most of the models, the heaviest snow is over by 7 pm Sunday (maybe a bit of sleet by then, which is no better for driving), but roads (even major roads) may still be in bad shape, having gotten 8"+ of snow with temps in the 20s even in Freehold and Philly, so salt won't work as well, so the drive likely won't be easy. More importantly many, many flights will be delayed or cancelled for sure.
Summary: Note that this is NOT a forecast - it's just some thoughts on what we're seeing from the models and mets so far. Anyway, it's still looking like at least a 6" snowfall for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC region starting before sunrise on Sunday, with that 6" likely coming by noon. After that, through late Sunday into early Monday, most models show another 6" or so of snow, but a few show some warm air aloft making for a mix of sleet and snow, which could hold additional accumulations down to 2-3" (but the same mass, just in 8-9โ of depth instead of 12โ of depth, so just as hard to drive in or shovel), especially south of 276/195 (and towards the coast). If no changeover and if ratios are 13-15:1 (inches of snow per inch of liquid), which they could be, 12-18" is on the table, as per several models and the NBM (model blend, below). And it's always possible the storm will drive further north bringing a few inches of snow followed by a few inches of sleet and maybe some rain, but no models are showing this. The NWS will likely issue their first snowfall map on Thursday afternoon (they forecast 72 hours out); their discussion is in bold below.
Details: The 12Z Euro/AIFS/GFS/UK/ICON are all showing about 7-12" of 10:1 ratio snow for just about everyone which could be 10-16" if we get 13-15:1 ratios; one or two of these end as a little sleet or freezing drizzle, but after 80-90% of the precip has fallen as snow. The one outlier model was the 12Z CMC which is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. However, the 12Z CMC ensembles showed little to no sleet so the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
Below are the total snowfall and QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) graphics for the latest 19Z NBM (model blend), which the NWS typically relies heavily on in their forecasting, as can be seen in the NWS discussion below, so starting to post this 3.5 days away seems reasonable to me and is a lot easier than summarizing every model, especially since almost all of those models (except the AI ones) are included in the NBM. Their snowfall forecast clearly uses a "model ratio" which looks to be 13-15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF or liquid precip. And whether or not there's some sleet for the last 1/3 of the storm, this would still be a monster snowstorm for just about everyone. As modeled in the NBM and most other models.
This is definitely still looking like a major snow, sleet and ice storm (which will be crippling in large areas that look to get 3/4" or more of ice accretion, which would bring down many trees and power lines causing weeks long power outages) from Texas through parts of AR/LA/MS/AL/GA/TN/NC/SE/NC/KY/VA with the exact forecast still unclear and many locations will get all three precip types, often with the pattern of starting as snow, changing to sleet and then freezing rain due to the warm air advection aloft and then maybe changing back to snow as the storm passes by and colder air wraps in. The general weather.gov site is great for people anywhere in the US. Also have the usual NWS-Philly and AmericanWx links below for those who want more details.
https://www.weather.gov/
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62527-possible.../page/36/...
๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง
๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐...๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ, ๐๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ,
๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ .
๐๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐จ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง
๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ
๐๐ซ๐๐.
๐ ๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐จ๐
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ค๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง
๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ณ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐ญ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐๐๐ฑ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ
๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐๐ข๐-๐๐ญ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ , ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ
๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ.
๐๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง
๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฐ
๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ. ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐๐ค๐ ๐
๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐
๐ฌ๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ณ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ,
๐๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐
๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ
๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ .
๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ
๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐
๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ
๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง
๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ, ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง,
๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ
๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐
๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ
๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐๐.
๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐.๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐
๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐.๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐-๐๐
๐๐จ๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฅ๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ, ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ๐ข๐ง๐ .
๐๐ง ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก
๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ญ๐ก
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก
๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ
๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐.
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐
๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ, ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐๐๐ญ
๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐จ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ.
Details: The 12Z Euro/AIFS/GFS/UK/ICON are all showing about 7-12" of 10:1 ratio snow for just about everyone which could be 10-16" if we get 13-15:1 ratios; one or two of these end as a little sleet or freezing drizzle, but after 80-90% of the precip has fallen as snow. The one outlier model was the 12Z CMC which is half snow then half sleet (~6" snow and then maybe 2" sleet given 1.2" of total liquid precip) for most with some rain for the NJ coast. However, the 12Z CMC ensembles showed little to no sleet so the Op run was an outlier to the ensembles, so most pros are tossing it. Still 3.5+ days to go, so we continue watching.
Below are the total snowfall and QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) graphics for the latest 19Z NBM (model blend), which the NWS typically relies heavily on in their forecasting, as can be seen in the NWS discussion below, so starting to post this 3.5 days away seems reasonable to me and is a lot easier than summarizing every model, especially since almost all of those models (except the AI ones) are included in the NBM. Their snowfall forecast clearly uses a "model ratio" which looks to be 13-15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF or liquid precip. And whether or not there's some sleet for the last 1/3 of the storm, this would still be a monster snowstorm for just about everyone. As modeled in the NBM and most other models.
This is definitely still looking like a major snow, sleet and ice storm (which will be crippling in large areas that look to get 3/4" or more of ice accretion, which would bring down many trees and power lines causing weeks long power outages) from Texas through parts of AR/LA/MS/AL/GA/TN/NC/SE/NC/KY/VA with the exact forecast still unclear and many locations will get all three precip types, often with the pattern of starting as snow, changing to sleet and then freezing rain due to the warm air advection aloft and then maybe changing back to snow as the storm passes by and colder air wraps in. The general weather.gov site is great for people anywhere in the US. Also have the usual NWS-Philly and AmericanWx links below for those who want more details.
https://www.weather.gov/
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62527-possible.../page/36/...
๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง
๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐...๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ, ๐๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ,
๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ .
๐๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐จ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง
๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ
๐๐ซ๐๐.
๐ ๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐จ๐
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ค๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง
๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ณ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐ญ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐๐๐ฑ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ
๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐๐ข๐-๐๐ญ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ , ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ
๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ.
๐๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง
๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฐ
๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ. ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐๐ค๐ ๐
๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐
๐ฌ๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ณ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ,
๐๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐
๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ
๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ .
๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ
๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐
๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ
๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง
๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ, ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ. ๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง,
๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐
๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ
๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐
๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ
๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐
๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐๐.
๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐.๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐
๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐.๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐-๐๐
๐๐จ๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฅ๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ, ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ๐ข๐ง๐ .
๐๐ง ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก
๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ญ๐ก
๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก
๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ
๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐.
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐
๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ, ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐๐๐ญ
๐ฌ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐จ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ.
