This is why I always felt the “good” pike teams had a high floor low ceiling. You can never consistently be good with this type of shot selection
Rutgers vs Illinois Shot Selection Disparity
- Thread starter KK1827
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This is why I always felt the “good” pike teams had a high floor low ceiling. You can never consistently be good with this type of shot selection
just came on to post this too. i’ve highlighted this in other games too and this game is not an outlier. No plan, no pinilosphy , no purpose ; just dumb and impractical offense.
Unless you have a stud who can consistently make midrange ( we don’t ) at a high percentage, the midrange makes no sense to shoot at a high rate . Francis is are best at making these shots but i’d have to see his percentage. Either way, analytically it makes no sense to take so many midrange and that’s why teams with a clue , a plan, and discipline offensively have gotten away from this and are more like illinois or alabama. Most quality offensive teams in the pros and college are like this now
Nah. If we hit the shots we are fine. We can’t make shots and only 1/4 of FGs from assists where IL was about 1/2 (which isn’t even that high but compared to us it is)
that’s the point; we don’t hit those shots consistently, ever and they are low percentage , low reward shots anyways. majority of shots should be at 3 and in paint, specifically low paint
Is it easier to make layups or 15 footers? Theyre both worth 2 points
at the division 1 level where defenses are being designed to stop the 3 and stop penetration...probably a 15 footer tbh...
our guards aren't talented enough to get all the way to the rim with any sort of consistency and our bigs problems are well documented you aren't making it a point to get them the ball and let them go to work.
teams also know the above so they focus more on our perimeter and stopping open looks from 3. so shots are going to have to come from getting open faster...or jumping higher...or releasing from deeper. again...don't know who that guy is who can do any of those.
our offense really hasn't been awful this year...if we were playing this way on O and had an old school Pike defense...we'd be more than fine. to me that is the biggest area to clean up and improve. because just saying shoot more 3s and layups isn't going to happen or help...
Well, I mean I dont know what to tell you but theres data on this and youre completely wrong
The major problem is we have zero inside game so you can’t get the ball inside and kick it out for 3 and has been a hallmark of Pikells tenure is we don’t have 3 point shooters
so your stance is our best scorer would be better if his little a$$ tried to get all the way to the rim and abandoned his mid range game? or just shot contested 3s off the dribble?
live in the real world...i get analytics and nate oats and danny hurley and blah blah blah. when you have the best talent it's pretty easy to say no mid range.
who on our team is going to live at the rim getting layups? who on our team is going to live at the three point line making contested 3s?
This is a good job by Fonseca to feature this chart. My God has Illinois embraced analytics or what? Not a single midrange attempt? Wow.
Meanwhile RU's chart indicates there is no real plan. Just take what you can get.
Meanwhile RU's chart indicates there is no real plan. Just take what you can get.
My stance is that this isn’t just a one season thing, this has been pikes entire tenure
That’s a team construction problem. It’s year ten for goodness sake.
Someone else posted this last night or earlier this morning. This sums up our talent. We can't get to and convert at the rim. We can't make 3's. Long twos are every defenses dream, and they are the only things we get because it's what other teams want us to take.
I think part of the problem, particularly against Illinois, is our lack of height at the guard position so we either had to drive and pull up to create a midrange or take really long 3s.
And of course, we have offensively challenged bigs.
It’s a fair criticism that Pike hasn’t recruited guards who are big enough to get a clean look from deep.
But I’d assume he knows that’s a need - what’s preventing it.
You want to bait me into saying NIL, but it’s a Pike problem from pre NIL. I’m sure he knows we need shooting. It’s his eye for a talented shooter. Jaden Jones, Griffiths, I could go on.
I don't disagree with that.
I do disagree that you can't win shooting midrange shots...if you have the right personnel for it. Plenty of excellent coaches out there don't demand this sort of shot chart.
Wasn’t Zrno just 0-16 from 3 pointers over a few games?
This is a guy who was supposed to be one of our better 3 point shooters?
I’m way more concerned with the player personnel and talent we’ve assembled over the years than these shot charts.
We consistently have guys that stink at shooting, no matter where they are taking their shots from.
This is a guy who was supposed to be one of our better 3 point shooters?
I’m way more concerned with the player personnel and talent we’ve assembled over the years than these shot charts.
We consistently have guys that stink at shooting, no matter where they are taking their shots from.
If we took the shots Illinois took we still would have lost big, probably worse haha.
We need better shooters to start.
Although the analytics people have tried to take over the game , each team and their individual parts have to be factored in. On our team , Francis , Buchanan , Powers partially , JMike if he is scoring are all 2 point shooters . Other than an occasional 3 except for Powers who shoots more 3 ‘s , that is the better shot for them with the greater chance of going in as well as the better chance of getting fouled. We shot enough 3’s in most games we just do not make enough. If Francis did what Bruce Thornton does every night from 2 there would be no complaints . Unless Pike is going to go to a 5 out system but not having a 5 that can shoot a 3 , let alone a 2 , it wouldn’t work. Can more 3’s be launched by Zrno, Powers, Grant , Buchanan , Francis and Davis , sure but unlikely we make 35-40% from 3 with their shots. The bigger problem is consistently making 2’s. Last night Davis was 0-8, Mark was 1-6, Francis was 3-6. Getting 9 points from those 3 is never going to win you games but compare it to the game before against Oregon , night and day. Pike deciding to have no low post inside out game with his limited 5’s makes the problem worse. When the 2’s don’t fall you get last night’s scoring draught that ended the game in the first half.
If pike hired someone to run the motion offense to get players open like Fran’s Iowa teams, we would be in much better shape. Inability to finish at rim is maddening. Opposing coaches know to bait our players into mid range shots and they are poorly coached enough to take them and they are bad shooters. J-Mike and Derek Simpson took mid range shots at an alarming bad rate.
keli needs to give pike an ultimatum to get offensive guru coach before he gets a penny of NIL and his job is on the line. Pike has FU money coming to him but I think he wants to be successful.
It’s a talent thing. We have 1 3 point shooter in Zrno. And he’s actually getting good looks and making some. Francis can hit 3s, and Davis too, but we can’t label them as shooters. But real teams like Illinois have 4 or 5 guys on the court that can all hit a three, and have guys on the bench that are also shooters.
Will Lino Mark make a 3 this season? 0-14. That sums up our talent issue right here. He’s probably everyone’s favorite building block freshman, and he has ability and some skill, but he lacks the biggest skill, shooting. Even in close, he still hasn’t figured out how to consistently make shots at the rim.
Its still a Pike problem either way
I don't know if you really analyzed your chart. Inside the paint, Illinois shot 54%, we shot 416%. Any additional paint shots would likely have been tough ones and reduced our percentage to 40 or below and, on drives, likely increased turnovers.
Averages don't work in specific games (and teams with very different players): Team Einstein shoots 90% from foul line, Team Hemingway shoots 80%, Team Olive Oil shoots 10%: On average teams shoot 60%.
Anyone is allowed to take whatever shot they want whenever they want, and that is one of the primary reasons Pikiel is one of the worst coaches in America.
In Rutgers' case it is often easier to make 15 footers, we drive so much into traffic and have so many layups blocked.
Agree.
But some people look at these shot charts and want to scream at Pikiell and want him to push the team jack up three’s.
The shot charts tell us more about the ability, skill and overall talent of the roster more than anything.
Our roster is poor (from a talent and construction standpoint) so of course the shot charts are going to be ugly lol.
It is true that the "modern" approach is how Illinois shot last night. But we don't have consistent 3-pt shooters or guys who can get downhill and finish at the rim. Quite frankly, we have a better chance of scoring a basket if Francis, JMike, or Buchanan shoot pull-up jumpers at the elbow. I don't want them trying to get through the "trees" to the rim, as that shot will invariably get blocked or we get called for a charge.
That said, if we have OPEN threes (by guys who can shoot them at 30% or better), then the shot should be taken regardless of how much time is left on the shot clock.
That said, if we have OPEN threes (by guys who can shoot them at 30% or better), then the shot should be taken regardless of how much time is left on the shot clock.
Pre-NIL he was trying to attract talent to a school that hadn’t been to the tourney. A lot of people missed on Jaden (weird situation) and Gavin (even Hoiberg couldn’t fix him).
It’s not like there’s a line of 6’6+, 40%+ shooters forming a line at the RAC and Pike is like “sorry, we’re not interested”.
He’s far from perfect - and has absolutely had some misses, gaps, etc. But I also don’t think he’s on a level playing field for talent.
In my mind, he’s got one more year to fix it - as long as it doesn’t go off the rails.
Where did I see I want mid range over layups? I just said if we could shoot out areas is ok
layup is always preferred but we don’t create them and we can shoot the 3
Has much less to do with our (lack of) talent and more to do with Pike's total disdain for offense. He literally doesnt even try. If I am Kelli and I see this chart, I fire Pike on the spot. I am not sure I have ever seen a graphic that points out a coach's ineptitude more than this one. It's a complete embarrassment compared to Illinois's (or even a rec league team honestly)
That's because our talent sucks. 100% on Pike. But the chart shows how we don't EVEN ATTEMPT to run an offense. It's all helter skelter mid-range low % off balance jumpers at the end of the shot clock. Also 100% on Pike. This guy is in so far over his head he has no shot to dig out. Next season may be even worse
I always find it assuming when people use one of Pike's failings to support another one of his failings. Moron logic at its best. At this point it doesnt matter why he can't get it done. It's his fault regardless.
He is the HEAD coach!!
He recruited this talent!!
HE is in charge of putting the players in the position for success!!
this chart screams that he doesn’t know what he is doing and his offense is similar to the portal as it’s wild Wild West.
I don’t blame the talent as they were recruited here and only doing what they are coached to do.
As an observer I would prefer we shoot 30% from 3 rather than 50% as we sick shooting anyway and beat to try and get points on the board. I watch other teams get players WIDE open against us yet I see very little of that when we have the ball. This needs to change
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