OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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Someone needs to read more closely. That was posted last Tuesday for this past Friday's (12/26) event when I normally start threat threads about 4 days in advance, which would've been Monday morning on 12/22 (I first started talking about the threat on 12/18) . However, someone else started the thread for 12/26 late on Monday.
There is a chance of 1/2-1" of snow on 12/31 into 1/1, especially near and north of 78 - not a big deal, but with cold temps, any snow will accumulate and could make for slippery sidewalks and driveways and maybe even secondary roads on NYE, which could be a concern for partiers. Beyond that there's a chance of a clipper or two bringing light snow during the first week in January with the bigger threats looking to be from 1/6 onward, meaning these are impossible to predict right now and might not even materialize (but the pattern and long range models support them possibly forming).
Also, any snow/slush still on the ground now (we have about 1" of high water content slush) is about to freeze solid overnight. Probably not an issue for and roads but could be an issue for those who do any outdoor activities, like hiking, walking and, of course, disc golf - we had a blast playing in the snow yesterday with about 15 folks on our weekly club round (we normally have 30+, but some don't love the snow lol.
Well, the last pattern thread worked out perfectly (this thread, really) with both above average snow and below average temps and then the 12/14 snowstorm was forecast very well. But this last storm was certainly a debacle for folks in most of Hunterdon, Warren and Sussex and generally south of 78 for the most part (except northern Middlesex County - we got 2.4", which was really 3.5" worth of snow "mass" when factoring in sleet density which was certainly a bust, but not a debacle, IMO), but was pretty good for NENJ, NYC, SENY and LI/CT. Will be doing a post-mortem soon.After Friday's debacle. . . .
Were you kicked in the head too much growing up? Do you not see that your honk post quoting my post is complete nonsense?
Your arguing with an aging Jack Russel Terrier
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Today's update on the likely coming pattern from John Homenuk who got his start as a teenager on the old EasternUS Weather board as earthlight and grew up to be a damn good meteorologist who runs NY Metro Weather now: https://x.com/nymetrowx
As he and all the other respected non-hypester mets are saying, a pattern like this is certainly much more favorable for cold and snow in our area than almost any other pattern, but there's no guarantee the pattern being talked about for bigger storms in 7+ days is going to evolve as forecast now and even if it does there's still no guarantee that we're going to get a major snowstorm, but this kind of pattern has delivered a disproportionate number of major snowstorms in the past, so there's that. This is all probabilistic forecasting where uncertainty is inherent in the models and forecasts. The biggest indicator to me is that the Euro, CMC and GFS ensemble forecasts out to 15 days are showing anomalously high snowfall forecasts -again, not a guarantee, but a strong indicator.
As he and all the other respected non-hypester mets are saying, a pattern like this is certainly much more favorable for cold and snow in our area than almost any other pattern, but there's no guarantee the pattern being talked about for bigger storms in 7+ days is going to evolve as forecast now and even if it does there's still no guarantee that we're going to get a major snowstorm, but this kind of pattern has delivered a disproportionate number of major snowstorms in the past, so there's that. This is all probabilistic forecasting where uncertainty is inherent in the models and forecasts. The biggest indicator to me is that the Euro, CMC and GFS ensemble forecasts out to 15 days are showing anomalously high snowfall forecasts -again, not a guarantee, but a strong indicator.
You guys can argue all you want.
Simply, we're a week into winter and I'm already fed up.
Simply, we're a week into winter and I'm already fed up.
I’m < 24 hours into being back in NJ from San Diego and I’m fed up
I can honestly say that the thought didn’t even come close to crossing my mindOh, you went to the basketball game last night, did you?
they can never be wrong if they say its favorable for something to happen in January but no guarantee
There was a thread in early early December saying that the second half of the month would be generally above average. That didn't go well.
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Some light snow likely NYE evening through early NY Day with 1/4-1/2" possible from 276/195 up to 78 and 1/2-1" possible N of 78, especially for places like the Poconos and NWNJ and along/N of 84. This is not a big deal storm at all (and we may also see little to no snow), but with temps below 32F any snow that falls will accumulate, including on untreated surfaces/roads, so things could get slippery on an evening where driving - and sometimes walking - is already a challenge. Hopefully everyone has a safe and fun NY Eve tonight and best to all for a happy and healthy 2026. With lots of snow, of course.
40s next week
Bring it on baby bring it on
Bring it on baby bring it on
Really? Thought it was going to be cold again. Meaning just above freezing for highs.
If you're still awake and maybe drunk at 4-6 am, there should be a cool snow squall line passing through - might only last 15-20 minutes but could put down a quick 1/2" and make for low visibility, especially N of 78.
Fake news
My forecast has 40s Tuesday through Sunday the 11th with rain mid to late week
Hills is still 3-2 for the good guys in 2026. But no room for error moving forward now.
Started at 5:45 am was light for a minute or two, then boom the wind kicked in and the snow got moderate to heavy for the next 10 min, then we had a 5 minute lull then another heavy band until about 6:30 am; lighter now, but not over looking at the radar; 0.6" so far. Gorgeous. Pics to come.
Ended around 7:00 am with 0.75" otg at 26F as the temp dropped from 32F at the start - pretty amazing little squall line. Reports of an inch or more in NNJ, so with temps in the 20s all day, this will certainly lead to slippery untreated roads and sidewalks/driveway - I know the road in front of my house is pretty slick right now Brings me to 11.0" on the season, which is a fantastic start. First is a pic at the height of the initial squall, followed by a pic after it was all over.
In case you thought that 2025 was a windy year, you were not imagining things. It was. In fact, it was the windiest year in the ~95 year history of wind measurements at Newark Airport, by far, as per the graphics below showing incidence of wind gusts over both 40 mph and 50 mph. There were 71 days with 40+ mph wind gusts (previous record was 43) and there were 25 days with 50+ mph wind gusts (previous record was 12).
The biggest factor was the very large number of vigorous northern jet stream systems impacting our area, bringing W to NW flow. Credit to poster bluewave on AmericanWx who compiled the data. A great example of this was the recent record seiche observed on Lake Erie, where strong persistent SW winds pushed the water NE-ward resulting in lowering the water at the SW end of the lake by 6-7 feet and raising the water level at the NE end, in Buffalo, by 6-7 feet causing significant flooding. Crazy stuff.
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62392-december-2025.../...
https://weather.com/.../2025-12-30-winter-storms-lake...
The biggest factor was the very large number of vigorous northern jet stream systems impacting our area, bringing W to NW flow. Credit to poster bluewave on AmericanWx who compiled the data. A great example of this was the recent record seiche observed on Lake Erie, where strong persistent SW winds pushed the water NE-ward resulting in lowering the water at the SW end of the lake by 6-7 feet and raising the water level at the NE end, in Buffalo, by 6-7 feet causing significant flooding. Crazy stuff.
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62392-december-2025.../...
https://weather.com/.../2025-12-30-winter-storms-lake...
No thread on this surprise snow.overnight? Dropped the ball on this one.
Missed it - we got 1/4" overnight. Was awake and watching TV most of the time it was snowing (12-3 am per the radar), but never looked outside or on-line, lol. With 1.0" the past 2 mornings, we're up to 11.2" for the season.
And there's some chance of another 1/4-1/2" of snow early Sunday before sunrise. After that, snow looks unlikely through next weekend as warmer than normal temps move in around Tuesday through next weekend with highs mostly in the 40-50F range. The cold pattern looks to reload around 1/13 or so. We'll see.
I thought we were in a prolonged cold period yet i see 40s and some 50s next week and the cold the following week looks garden variety. Just a few more days to get through before we can start living outside again
Looking forward to the warmer weather next week. The TKR jinx is in full effect. LOL!
Days ae getting longer and sun angle not a friend of snow.
The nights are getting warmer, it won't be long
Won't be long 'til summer comes
In the summertime when the weather is fine
You can stretch right up and touch the sky
Have been noticing the snow melting a lot quicker even on cold days. Another overnight squall, and a coating on the driveway-all gone before noon. before the direct sunlight even was on the driveway.
