I’ve been working outside in it the past few weeks. It sucks! You can only put so much clothing on and still move functionally. I feel like Randy in A Christmas Story.
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
you know whenever you start these pattern change threads it more often than not is the kiss of death
same
and we have been accustomed to warm November and Decembers the past decade so it seems much worse.....40s touching 50 were the norm in Decembers so getting low to mid 30s and teens to below at night really sucks...watch it get warm around xmas though thats when most find cold tolerable
anyhow impressive lows last night with few at or below 0
Walpack -2
Fort Dix 0
Sandyston 0
Pequest 2
Hopewell 4
Hacketsttown 5
Hillsborough 6
14° this morning when I got up.
Was really fun going to the gym last night just wearing workout shorts on my legs at 18°. Fortunately it wasn't windy.
Was really fun going to the gym last night just wearing workout shorts on my legs at 18°. Fortunately it wasn't windy.
Wrong, as usual. 90% of them have been correct for temperature and about 2/3 correct for snow, which is way better than the 1/3 one would get bu merely guessing.
Almost every model now has a light to moderate snowfall (1-2/2-4" type event with cold temps, so accumulations on all surfaces would be likely) for the entire area (Philly-NJ-NYC) from late Sat night through Sunday morning, but would like to see this consensus hold for a couple of model suites before starting a separate thread, as this could still be either a miss (most likely to our south) or it could simply fizzle due to lack of energy/precip, leaving a <1" event). Event thread just posted on AmericanWx.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62443-snowstorm-potential-12142025/
The GFS never really gave much and has been all over the map, so confidence in it is very low. And if you're going to start quoting every model run many days out, it's going to be a long winter.
Who's honking? Only saying that there's some confidence in a light to moderate snowfall on Sunday. I'll "honk" for that (meaning starting a thread) if models through tonight show continuing-to-improve consensus, plus we'll only be 3 days out late tonight.
Areas above 1000' in Sussex got 1-2"; same in the Poconos and Lehigh Valley and Catskills, where it's still snowing. Very little SE of there - almost all rain, as expected.
Well wait you claimed almost every model
Well the gfs and ukie arent on your side
Backtracking
nothing set in stone but the potential remains for a 1-3 snow event..highest amounts to the south. Remember the models can change rapidly either way in 24-48 hours because mid range they have been awful with events.
alot of honking for a big warmup across the country in the next 10-14 days....our area will not warm up as much as most of the country but still we will see highs in the 40s maybe approaching 50
alot of honking for a big warmup across the country in the next 10-14 days....our area will not warm up as much as most of the country but still we will see highs in the 40s maybe approaching 50
Heads up on the windy, warm rainstorm coming through our region tonight through Friday morning. The storm will bring about 0.75-1.5" of rain for most, which, in combination with temps in the mid-50s to near 60F, will wash away much of our snow and probably lead to some localized urban flooding.
But the most concerning part of the forecast is the high winds with a wind advisory up for the entire region for gusts to 45-50 mph, which could lead to isolated tree damage/power outages - folks also might want to bring in some of those vulnerable Christmas decorations. Mike Masco (Channel 11) has a nice write-up on this in the link below and the NWS link is also below.
Also, while we're in a seasonable to warmer-than-normal pattern from now through the end of December, there will be some short shots of colder air and if those coincide with some moisture, some snow chances are still possible in this pattern, although they're not high or even medium probability chances at this time. 12/23 shows a potentially minor snowfall, for example in a few models, but not most (probably mostly for NW of 95/N of 78, but way too early to forecast), and there are hints of potential around 12/27 and 1/1. Just things to keep an eye on.
Also, some of the long range models show a colder and stormier (possibly snow) pattern for early/mid-January, but not as strong of a signal as seen for the most recent cold/snowy pattern. Obviously, this last cold/stormy pattern in early/mid December, forecast a few weeks before that as per the first post in this thread, certainly delivered on cold and snow for our area, with temps way below normal and most locations receiving more snowfall on 12/14 (and a few earlier events for NW areas) than they normally get for the entire month of December. No guarantees on the early/mid Jan pattern, of course.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
But the most concerning part of the forecast is the high winds with a wind advisory up for the entire region for gusts to 45-50 mph, which could lead to isolated tree damage/power outages - folks also might want to bring in some of those vulnerable Christmas decorations. Mike Masco (Channel 11) has a nice write-up on this in the link below and the NWS link is also below.
Also, while we're in a seasonable to warmer-than-normal pattern from now through the end of December, there will be some short shots of colder air and if those coincide with some moisture, some snow chances are still possible in this pattern, although they're not high or even medium probability chances at this time. 12/23 shows a potentially minor snowfall, for example in a few models, but not most (probably mostly for NW of 95/N of 78, but way too early to forecast), and there are hints of potential around 12/27 and 1/1. Just things to keep an eye on.
Also, some of the long range models show a colder and stormier (possibly snow) pattern for early/mid-January, but not as strong of a signal as seen for the most recent cold/snowy pattern. Obviously, this last cold/stormy pattern in early/mid December, forecast a few weeks before that as per the first post in this thread, certainly delivered on cold and snow for our area, with temps way below normal and most locations receiving more snowfall on 12/14 (and a few earlier events for NW areas) than they normally get for the entire month of December. No guarantees on the early/mid Jan pattern, of course.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
So, there's a chance of a minor snowfall early Tuesday morning, between about 1 am and 8 am with maybe 1/2"-1" from 195/276 up to 78 (and dustings south of 276/195) and perhaps 1-2" N of 78/NW of 287 with 2-3" possible for the Poconos, NW Sussex and the mid-Hudson Valley. With temps below 32F when the precip starts, it could be a bit slippery during the start of the rush hour on sidestreets south of 78 and most roads N of 78. For areas S of 78 temps should get above 32F with a change to light rain after about 7-8 am. NWS preliminary map is below. Unfortunately, for most, any snow will be gone by Christmas Eve with high temps on 12/23 and 12/24 in the mid-40s. Not sure it's worth a thread...
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.weather.gov/phi
Not much change in the forecast with 1-2" being possible for the Poconos, Sussex, NW Passaic, Hudson Valley and the 1" line being somewhere between 78 and 80 with up to 1/2" possible down to 276/195 and maybe a dusting south of that line. There are models showing 1" making it down close to the 276/195 line, but there are also models showing nada all the way up to 78, so the NWS map below seems like a decent guess at this point. Could be slippery on sidestreets south of 78 up until 7-8 am (with temps around 31-32F from 1 am to 7-8 am), when temps go above 32F, and conditions could be slick on untreated roads N of 78 through rush hour.
Really scraping the bottom of the barrel.
And don't look now, but Friday is now looking like it could be wintry, as we've seen a major model shift for that timeframe towards a stronger high pressure system with more cold air and a suppressed low pressure system possibly now bringing snow/mix instead of rain - which could mean significant snowfall, although mostly rain and mostly a miss are still on the table, but for the past few days before last night's models, this was looking like just rain with warmer temps. The NWS discussion this morning reflects this.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high.
Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or
southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the
Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This
setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite
of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a
much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This
solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our
region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from
widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was
consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all
showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given
this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now
until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry
solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs,
however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry
system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the
forecast for the Friday timeframe.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high.
Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or
southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the
Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This
setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite
of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a
much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This
solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our
region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from
widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was
consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all
showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given
this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now
until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry
solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs,
however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry
system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the
forecast for the Friday timeframe.
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Tomorrow's event is trending a little snowier on most models today and tonight, which led the NWS to increase snowfall amounts a bit as per the map below, but I'd say it's looking even a little snowier than that. Most models are showing a 1" line somewhere between 276/195 and 78, with the Raritan being that line for many at least from Perth Amboy to about Flemington, so I'm going with 1" at our house in Metuchen vs. the 0.5" the NWS is predicting.
Could be pretty slippery in most locations north of Trenton to Long Branch before 7 am (with temps rising above 32F for most that are south of 78 by 7-8 am) and along/N of 78 through mid-morning, as 2" or so is likely along/N of 78 (and NW of 287) and 2-4" is looking likely for NNJ (NW of 80/287), the Poconos and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee.
It just feels like things are trending snowier right before the storm, which I is great for snow lovers (like 12/14 and unlike most storms the last 4 winters). Anywhere that gets 2" or more will likely get a somewhat White Christmas morning, which would be cool for the kids. Advisories are up for just Sussex/Carbon/Monroe/W Passaic/Orange - a little surprised they're not up for the next tier of counties (Warren/Morris, Lehigh Valley and more of the Hudson Valley).
Edit: the NWS just extended advisories to the next tier of counties (counties in blue have advisories), i.e., Warren/Morris, Lehigh Valley and more of the Hudson Valley for 1-3" mostly, plus the chance of a light freezing rain glaze.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62455-light.../page/7/
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Friday's event is just about thread worthy, as every major global model now has at least a few inches of snow and some have several inches of snow Friday night into Saturday morning. If the threat still looks significant, will start a thread tomorrow after the 12Z runs come out in the early afternoon. But we are still 4 days out and the main energy for this event is still in the Pacific, so it's not well sampled (no balloons out there), which means uncertainty is still high and we could see significant track shifts, still, such that there could be less snow or snow to mix to rain (some models are showing freezing rain for some interior sections). AmericanWx thread below if you want to see the gory details/maps/etc.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62460-snow-potential-dec-26-27/page/3/#comments
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62460-snow-potential-dec-26-27/page/3/#comments
Woke up around 6:30 am to light snow and as of 7:00 am it's 32F and we have about 3/8" of snow on all surfaces, so it's a little slick out there, especially on sidewalks and driveways. Snowing lightly and radar looks fairly weak/disorganized right now, so if we don't get some more snow soon, accumulations will suffer with later snowfall, as temps will likely be up to 33-34F by 9 am. Not much change in the forecast from last night. Reports of 1"+ in NNJ, especially N of 80 with most other locations looking like 1/2" or less south of 78.
Probably a final measurement of 0.8", since temp is up to 34F and we're seeing melting/compaction so even though it's still snowing, it's not really accumulating much anymore. Still pretty happy with this little overperformer (forecast was for 0.5" and my prediction was 1.0"). And most folks north of 78 have 1-2" while many N of 80 have 2-4", with up to 5-6" reported in the Hudson Valley. 7.8" for the season so far and hopefully several more on Friday night.
Treasure those moments. I get a little misty eyed looking back at some old photos/video of me playing with my son in the snow when he was a toddler and even older. Favorite memory was probably Jan-96, when we got 26-32" of snow (impossible to really know with all the drifting) and I cleared a somewhat flat section of our roof onto the ground leaving 5-6' piles and I took him (he was 2.5 yrs old) up on the roof with me and we jumped into the snow - and my wife grudgingly allowed it. He must've made me do that 20 more times, lol and we did that for many years whenever we had big snows.
Thread time for the Friday night event. Every major global model is showing at least 2-4" for the Philly-NJ-NYC region and some are showing 4-8". Not a lock for anything yet, but confidence is pretty high in at least getting the 2-4" amounts, as we're now almost within 3 days of the event start Friday late afternoon.
Figured I'd keep general weather/pattern stuff in this thread, so here goes.
Hope y'all like winter, because the medium/long range models are showing development of a pattern for at least the first 3 weeks of January which should be colder than normal and is conducive to east coast snowstorms, although as usual for these things, predicting the cold well in advance is easier than predicting snow well in advance (so many things have to go just right for snow in this area, as we just saw on Friday). There are several quotes/links below from 3 well-respected meteorologists on this, none of whom would ever be called snow hypesters,, with the level of excitement being pretty high.
The pattern features an anomalously strong -NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) often called a Greenland block with high pressure in that area "blocking" the cold air from the polar vortex from circulating towards Greenland, which shunts the polar vortex down into the eastern 1/3 of the US as part of a large trough, bringing cold air with it.
The second ingredient needed is moisture and the subtropical jet looks to be active during this period, bringing moisture along the base of the trough and possibly up the coast if the timing works out, which can bring wintry weather to our area and in this kind of pattern, historically, we've often (but not always) seen major snowstorms.
There could also be clipper type systems that come from Canada and the midwest towards our area that deliver smaller amounts of precip (maybe snow); we have a couple of these chances from 12/31 through 1/6 with the bigger chances looking like they could occur after that. Note that the ensemble means for the major long range models (when those models are run dozens of times with perturbations to gauge sensitivity) also show more snow than "normal" for the next 15+ days. We'll see, of course.
From John Homenuk: "Day 10 Composite 500hPa Height Anomalies from todays 12z ECMWF EPS are astonishing both in regard to the intensity of high latitude blocking and the individual analogs - many of which are centered around memorable periods of winter weather in the Eastern US." This is a 4 sigma (4 std deviations, meaning it occurs <1% of the time) anomaly; the first image below shows what this looks like on the Euro model and also shows the closest analogs to this model depiction, several of which featured major east coast snowstorms in that pattern.
From Jeff Berardelli: "If you like cold and snow in the East, the pattern the next 2 weeks is text book! For the layman, (relative) warm blocking in the Arctic “displaces” the tropospheric Polar Vortex, forcing cold southward into the US. For the weather nerds out there, the high latitude block reaches 4.5 Standard Deviations / Sigma from the mean next weekend on the European model. Easily a record. It may not verify, but if it’s even in the ballpark, it’s on like Donkey Kong! Buckle up!!" He includes a nice video showing what the pattern formation looks like (it's in the link below in case it doesn't show up in this post).
From Tomer Burg (who is calling for 20-29" of snow in NYC during January): "What does this mean for snowstorm prospects in the East Coast? Initially, not much. Notice how we start with the same cold and dry NW flow regime we've been in before. The key is to monitor the upstream evolution, as the Bering Sea block erodes and is likely replaced by a Pacific trough, increasing the chances of western US ridge amplification.
The kind of pattern increases the probability of a moderate to major snowstorm vs. climatology in the Mid Atlantic, and potentially southern New England, which would necessitate a well-timed upstream ridge amplification coinciding with downstream confluent flow and a sufficiently cold airmass in the northeast US. While a major snowstorm is never a guarantee, chances of at least one or two in the January 8-25 time frame are higher than average."
Hope y'all like winter, because the medium/long range models are showing development of a pattern for at least the first 3 weeks of January which should be colder than normal and is conducive to east coast snowstorms, although as usual for these things, predicting the cold well in advance is easier than predicting snow well in advance (so many things have to go just right for snow in this area, as we just saw on Friday). There are several quotes/links below from 3 well-respected meteorologists on this, none of whom would ever be called snow hypesters,, with the level of excitement being pretty high.
The pattern features an anomalously strong -NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) often called a Greenland block with high pressure in that area "blocking" the cold air from the polar vortex from circulating towards Greenland, which shunts the polar vortex down into the eastern 1/3 of the US as part of a large trough, bringing cold air with it.
The second ingredient needed is moisture and the subtropical jet looks to be active during this period, bringing moisture along the base of the trough and possibly up the coast if the timing works out, which can bring wintry weather to our area and in this kind of pattern, historically, we've often (but not always) seen major snowstorms.
There could also be clipper type systems that come from Canada and the midwest towards our area that deliver smaller amounts of precip (maybe snow); we have a couple of these chances from 12/31 through 1/6 with the bigger chances looking like they could occur after that. Note that the ensemble means for the major long range models (when those models are run dozens of times with perturbations to gauge sensitivity) also show more snow than "normal" for the next 15+ days. We'll see, of course.
From John Homenuk: "Day 10 Composite 500hPa Height Anomalies from todays 12z ECMWF EPS are astonishing both in regard to the intensity of high latitude blocking and the individual analogs - many of which are centered around memorable periods of winter weather in the Eastern US." This is a 4 sigma (4 std deviations, meaning it occurs <1% of the time) anomaly; the first image below shows what this looks like on the Euro model and also shows the closest analogs to this model depiction, several of which featured major east coast snowstorms in that pattern.
From Jeff Berardelli: "If you like cold and snow in the East, the pattern the next 2 weeks is text book! For the layman, (relative) warm blocking in the Arctic “displaces” the tropospheric Polar Vortex, forcing cold southward into the US. For the weather nerds out there, the high latitude block reaches 4.5 Standard Deviations / Sigma from the mean next weekend on the European model. Easily a record. It may not verify, but if it’s even in the ballpark, it’s on like Donkey Kong! Buckle up!!" He includes a nice video showing what the pattern formation looks like (it's in the link below in case it doesn't show up in this post).
From Tomer Burg (who is calling for 20-29" of snow in NYC during January): "What does this mean for snowstorm prospects in the East Coast? Initially, not much. Notice how we start with the same cold and dry NW flow regime we've been in before. The key is to monitor the upstream evolution, as the Bering Sea block erodes and is likely replaced by a Pacific trough, increasing the chances of western US ridge amplification.
The kind of pattern increases the probability of a moderate to major snowstorm vs. climatology in the Mid Atlantic, and potentially southern New England, which would necessitate a well-timed upstream ridge amplification coinciding with downstream confluent flow and a sufficiently cold airmass in the northeast US. While a major snowstorm is never a guarantee, chances of at least one or two in the January 8-25 time frame are higher than average."
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Had a flash freeze last night. Went out about 10'ish with Tyler to drop his car at my mechanic, cars were covered in a layer of ice along with the driveway and part of the road. Decided it was foolish to try and dropped it this morning.