Honest assertions about the AI bubble
- Thread starter firegiver
- Start date
Renee Tao (@platinumtraveler) on Threads
$610 million AI Ponzi Scheme Collapse. Peter Thiel’s Hedge Fund dumped all of his shares before the earnings report came out. SoftBank sold entire stake of $5.83 billion on Nov 11. Nothing to see here folks. Just some good old fashion insider trading. Martha Stewart deserved better...
www.threads.com
No idea how valid this is but thought it was interesting
He sold all his, Burry shorted the hell out of pltr and nvda and then retired like a day later. I’m telling yall something is about to pop.Renee Tao (@platinumtraveler) on Threads
$610 million AI Ponzi Scheme Collapse. Peter Thiel’s Hedge Fund dumped all of his shares before the earnings report came out. SoftBank sold entire stake of $5.83 billion on Nov 11. Nothing to see here folks. Just some good old fashion insider trading. Martha Stewart deserved better...
No idea how valid this is but thought it was interesting
$176 premarket right now. Unbelievable pullback in less than 24 hours.
Crushed earnings. Stock craters. Make it make sense.
When it doesn’t make sense is when you make money.
We will see. No crying in the casino
I’m hopeful you’re correct. I haven’t capitulated but damn it’s been difficult. Most of the information I can find is pretty consistent that we are headed for a bear market and a substantial drawdown for the next 6-12 months.
Yeah, and this is all not my expertise at all, I just thought it was interesting, especially in light of the earnings call yesterday. Do have a friend who works for a company that works for NVidia designing their data centers, and he's been incredibly busy the past 2 years.
Nor mine. But I have a decent intuition and understanding of how things work. I describe it as just off, something isn’t quite right. I deal with these companies on a day to day basis. Many are thriving but more are not. I see the home prices and interest rates, I see the volatility and uncertainty. I see the division in our very own country being amplified daily. Healthcare skyrocketing, inflation out of control, spending out of control, government programs out of control. I mean think about this, trump has been in for less than a year and Steve Bannon is already sounding the alarms that R’s will lose the midterms bigly and it’ll be because the economy. I’m not trying to assign blame here either. I’m simply making an observation that I don’t think this is as strong or resilient as people are thinking. Just my opinion.
Oh stop it. We have been cordial to one another the whole time. We’ve had disagreements but I don’t consider you an enemy at all. Others maybe lol.Look at us agreeing with each other.
Oh I know, but cordial and full fledged agreement is different. Plus I like that quote and gif lol
Most of the information is sh it.
Most of the information has called 15 out of the last 2 recessions.
I am not saying it can’t happen But you seem to be a young dude with at least 10+ years to retirement. Time is your friend. Don’t be a panican.
Another thing is that those high p/e stocks are more sensitive to Intrest rates. The consensus is very uncertain about a December rate cut. So we seem to be pricing in some of that risk.
Jerome won’t be the fed chair come May. And you can bet your bottom dollar Trump will appoint someone who wants to cut rates.
I bet most of my positions aren’t terribly far from yours. Just different ways of getting there.
Is anyone here worried that the massive influx of investment into AI is a house of cards that could absolutely crumble our economy?
Either there isn't the payoff of AI that these mega companies are expecting and thus crushing our economy when the rug is pulled.
Or AI succeeds and the workforce goes into massive unemployment thus crushing our economy.
Either there isn't the payoff of AI that these mega companies are expecting and thus crushing our economy when the rug is pulled.
Or AI succeeds and the workforce goes into massive unemployment thus crushing our economy.
The latter, yes. The former, no but there will be bubbles popped.
The payoff is already happening in certain areas. Companies are getting more productivity out of one sales rep with AI GTM tools than they were 10 reps without.
It’s still very early but IMO every business will look very different in a decade. We are already seeing the impacts on employment. This is one of the toughest job markets for new grads. Even traditionally secure degrees like CS are having very difficult times getting jobs.
As to who wins, it’s still so early. Google was left for dead 12 mos ago and now arguably is in the lead. Open source was hot with llama, then cooled as the labs progressed, and now is back en vogue as deep seek is releasing some very good models.
As for who loses, it’s going to be anyone who doesn’t embrace these techs. Yes, many are sealing their own fate and putting themselves out of a job. But evolve or die, and if you can work with these tools then you can have a career deploying them.
What is most concerning is just how much power these models will yield. We already see how Musk can tweak these models for his own benefit. Now imagine that billions of agents are running on top of these models and what the person in control can do…
I don’t think I’m being dramatic that whoever controls these models will arguably be the most powerful person in the world…. Maybe ever.
It's an arms race, hope the US wins or at least is near the top. We are in a good spot right now, but China is strong.
I agree the world will be a much different place in 10-15 years. Hopefully a better place, and most likely will be, but it's not a guarantee.
I think robots have a chance to close the wealth gap. If a robot can perform the most complex surgery, that would seemingly it open it up to lower income people. Care should get better for the lower income. I can make an argument that humanoids will be deflationary.
I think the evolve or die portion doesn't really make sense in this scenario. The technology has the potential of completely wiping out jobs and not adding new ones back into the workforce. I don't see the booming industry that replaces the current one like we have seen in past technological advancements.
Like you said, one sales rep can do the work of 10 reps. Where do those 9 reps go?
There doesn't seem to be any plan at all right now for what is to come. Its a race to the bottom for ultimate control like you described.
As @fatpiggy noted, it is an arms race. I’m more worried about that power and wealth being in the US vs China.
If we have a democracy post 2028, then I think you will see a massive shift to socialism to combat those challenges. Those in power (ie, billionaires), will fight like crazy to make sure that doesn’t happen though.
Ironically the robots, via capitalism, will fulfill many socialist ideologies.
Maybe. Someone still has to pay for those robots and I don’t expect them to be funded by donations or by those who are out of work.
Which leads me to the question I always have had about AI. Will it be a net positive or net negative for humanity?
Crazy to see so much invested in something that we can't answer that question clearly on either side.
It’s definitely an interesting question. I think it will be hugely beneficial. But I don’t think there is much value in debating as it’s coming whether we think it’s good or bad. If we stop it, the. China will own it.
Oh for sure AI is going to keep building and the US needs to be a winner for us to have a chance to protect ourselves.
Just more so looking at the discussion on a large macro scale.
I think one concern is the circular investments by one AI company into others. That could be a catastrophe in the making
Its an amazing claim. I know its blasphemy to question this man, but you have to wonder: HOW?
Shhhhhh don't ask reasonable questions to outlandish statements.
Expectations for a lot of these companies are absolutely inflated. What I would say is that even if the bubble pops, it’s ultimately a short term correction that won’t slow down the economic transformation that AI represents.
We had the dot-com bubble, and look at the Internet age that followed it anyway.
We had the dot-com bubble, and look at the Internet age that followed it anyway.
Give me more. Because they are using them all in the data centers? Like demand through the roof?
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AI demand causing tech inflation
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