Chances Harry Giles comes back?

[Showenuff]

He ain't coming back, if he does I'll gladly eat a sh$t sandwich.

Hahahaha! That struck me funny. Hey 90 , do I get to make it? You want corn?

 

[DukeJim99]

Are these kids still allowed to purchase insurance against injury? I know that previously if you were considered a first round pick and chose to come back, the NCAA would let you take out a low-insurance loan and use that loan to pay the premiums on an insurance policy of up to $5M against an injury that precluded you from playing in the NBA.

If that's still true and I'm Giles, that could certainly change the equation for me. Take one more year and see if you can move your draft stock up from low 20s to single digits (especially with 2018 being considered a weaker draft), all the while having a $5M protection against another knee injury? All of a sudden staying one more year doesn't sound quite so crazy.

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Are these kids still allowed to purchase insurance against injury? I know that previously if you were considered a first round pick and chose to come back, the NCAA would let you take out a low-insurance loan and use that loan to pay the premiums on an insurance policy of up to $5M against an injury that precluded you from playing in the NBA.

If that's still true and I'm Giles, that could certainly change the equation for me. Take one more year and see if you can move your draft stock up from low 20s to single digits (especially with 2018 being considered a weaker draft), all the while having a $5M protection against another knee injury? All of a sudden staying one more year doesn't sound quite so crazy.

Yeah, JIm, you can still get it...but after 2 serious injuries, I'm wondering if the premiums wouldn't be prohibitive.

Here's a link (below) to Leonard Fournette (LSU football player), and his insurance policies. He has 2, one for 10 million for injuries, that the premiums are roughly $8,000 a million (I'm assuming that's for a year), and he has another policy for 10 million that covers him for circumstances that would lead him from falling from his projected NFL draft position...not sure exactly what all that encompasses (other than just injuries)...but the article states you usually have to have both type policies.

Oh, and I just skimmed the article (it's a long article, many examples), but it seems some think the 'disability insurance' policies are just a racket. The companies fight tooth and nail to keep from paying (naturally), sue in 'friendly' states, etc. It looks like it's hard to make a claim stick, and collect. So, I'm not sold on this being such a great option.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...d-the-unregulated-world-of-player-protection/
OFC

 

[Baller224]

0% - Another injury or another season like he just had would destroy his draft stock.

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

Yeah, JIm, you can still get it...but after 2 serious injuries, I'm wondering if the premiums wouldn't be prohibitive.

Here's a link (below) to Leonard Fournette (LSU football player), and his insurance policies. He has 2, one for 10 million for injuries, that the premiums are roughly $8,000 a million (I'm assuming that's for a year), and he has another policy for 10 million that covers him for circumstances that would lead him from falling from his projected NFL draft position...not sure exactly what all that encompasses (other than just injuries)...but the article states you usually have to have both type policies.

Oh, and I just skimmed the article (it's a long article, many examples), but it seems some think the 'disability insurance' policies are just a racket. The companies fight tooth and nail to keep from paying (naturally), sue in 'friendly' states, etc. It looks like it's hard to make a claim stick, and collect. So, I'm not sold on this being such a great option.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...d-the-unregulated-world-of-player-protection/
OFC

I was thinking the exact same thing....what is an actuary going to do with a kid that has had 3 surgeries? Those would somehow be sky-high premiums...and who would underwrite it? Lloyd's?

DukeJim99 -- offering a loan to a kid to pay the premiums would be a NCAA violation.It's a nice idea, but the kid / parents have to find the money to pay the premiums....I would think. Otherwise, a college would use that as a recruiting tactic....I would at least.

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

That was Harry's announcement too! Haha. He's going to the league strictly to high five Jayson when he scores.

Probably not that....highest paid high-fiver in the country.....nice gig...would like to land that one myself.

Just seems odd to me of all the pictures in that composition -- Giles is pretty prominent. Why would he be there if he wasn't going as well?

 

[topps coach]

Probably not that....highest paid high-fiver in the country.....nice gig...would like to land that one myself.

Just seems odd to me of all the pictures in that composition -- Giles is pretty prominent. Why would he be there if he wasn't going as well?

not a bad gig if you can get it lol

 

[DukeJim99]

I was thinking the exact same thing....what is an actuary going to do with a kid that has had 3 surgeries? Those would somehow be sky-high premiums...and who would underwrite it? Lloyd's?

DukeJim99 -- offering a loan to a kid to pay the premiums would be a NCAA violation.It's a nice idea, but the kid / parents have to find the money to pay the premiums....I would think. Otherwise, a college would use that as a recruiting tactic....I would at least.

But that's the thing - the program I was aware of from a number of years ago was sanctioned by the NCAA. It was limited to a very small group of athletes - those projected top three rounds in the NFL, first round in the NBA, who chose to return for school. It allowed those students to take out a loan to pay for the premiums, with that loan being blessed by the NCAA. No NCAA violation concerns.

As to the premiums being cost prohibitive, if the normal premiums are 8k on for every $1M, then even if Harry's premiums were 5x that due to his prior injuries, that's still a worthwhile policy to get. Let's say he wants $5M of coverage and that costs him $200k - so what? He is either a top draft pick after his sophomore year with a multi-million dollar guaranteed contract and he pays off the $200k loan out of that, or he gets injured, collects the $5M, and pays the loan off out of that.

Now, all of this assumes the policies really would pay out if he had another injury and from the posts above that seems to be in question. But it's certainly something I'd be weighing heavily if I was Harry if I had any interest in coming back for another year.

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

But that's the thing - the program I was aware of from a number of years ago was sanctioned by the NCAA. It was limited to a very small group of athletes - those projected top three rounds in the NFL, first round in the NBA, who chose to return for school. It allowed those students to take out a loan to pay for the premiums, with that loan being blessed by the NCAA. No NCAA violation concerns.

As to the premiums being cost prohibitive, if the normal premiums are 8k on for every $1M, then even if Harry's premiums were 5x that due to his prior injuries, that's still a worthwhile policy to get. Let's say he wants $5M of coverage and that costs him $200k - so what? He is either a top draft pick after his sophomore year with a multi-million dollar guaranteed contract and he pays off the $200k loan out of that, or he gets injured, collects the $5M, and pays the loan off out of that.

Now, all of this assumes the policies really would pay out if he had another injury and from the posts above that seems to be in question. But it's certainly something I'd be weighing heavily if I was Harry if I had any interest in coming back for another year.

I understand your point, but what if you don't go in the first round? And you get a minimum contract? From my quick search it's $562K. I am not an insurance guy and I HATE reading riders, BUT if you get an insurance policy for $5m and you blow your knee on the first game, then I doubt the insurer will be writing you a check for $5m, The insurance company would argue that the kid would have never gotten to a $5m contract.

It is sort of like getting a piece of jewelry insured. You get an appraisal on a ring for $5k, insure it for $5k, and then you lose it. The insurance company comes back and says...I can replace that for $2.5k, here you go (my wife and I had this happen). The insurance policy is not a guarantee of the amount of coverage, just that you are covered.

Also --> sorry for the sidetrack.

 

[sheyduke]

Hmmmm

Yeah I was just giving hope the first pick but then I realized why give up the money

 

[DukeJim99]

I understand your point, but what if you don't go in the first round? And you get a minimum contract? From my quick search it's $562K. I am not an insurance guy and I HATE reading riders, BUT if you get an insurance policy for $5m and you blow your knee on the first game, then I doubt the insurer will be writing you a check for $5m, The insurance company would argue that the kid would have never gotten to a $5m contract.

It is sort of like getting a piece of jewelry insured. You get an appraisal on a ring for $5k, insure it for $5k, and then you lose it. The insurance company comes back and says...I can replace that for $2.5k, here you go (my wife and I had this happen). The insurance policy is not a guarantee of the amount of coverage, just that you are covered.

Also --> sorry for the sidetrack.

Well, there are apparently also insurance policies against dropping stock in the draft, not just for injuries that are career enders. See the post from Old as Dirt above, referencing Fournette's policies: "he has another policy for 10 million that covers him for circumstances that would lead him from falling from his projected NFL draft position."

So, if Harry's stock dropped and he ended up making less but still signing an NBA contract then he could have insurance that would cover that difference in earnings as well.

I'm not sure what you mean "blow your knee in the first game." Of his sophomore year at Duke? Then yes, that is exactly the kind of thing where the policy should pay in full. If you mean his first year in the NBA, then no, the policy would expire when he arrived at the NBA - it covered his pre-NBA time. So, the policy wouldn't help him in that case.

I definitely don't understand the specifics of how much Harry would get paid if he got both types of insurance (including the one for draft stock falling), signed a contract for $562k, and then got hurt his first game in the NBA, and never signed another NBA contract. But I imagine that's all worked out at the time of signing. If they project Harry as the #20 pick, then I would assume the insurance policy that covers draft stock falling would pay him the difference between what he would have made in that first contract as a #20 pick as compared to what he made signing that $562k contract. And that the parties would have worked all of that out explicitly at the time they entered into a contract.

So, at #20, Harry would get $1.30M for year 1 and $1.36M for year two. That's guaranteed salary of $2.66M

Now, pretend instead of leaving now as the projected #20 pick, he instead stays another year, performs poorly or gets hurt again, and ultimately signs for $562k and only one guaranteed year. He then suffers a career ending injury his first game in the NBA, I assume the policy should pay out $2.66M - $562k = $2.098M

Now, if he had suffered a career-ending injury while still at Duke, he should get paid the full $2.66M

I have never seen one of those policies, though. Maybe they only pay 80% of the net or 90% of the net.

 

[Dukesince90]

Hahahaha! That struck me funny. Hey 90 , do I get to make it? You want corn?

Hell, I'll take corn and peanuts.

 

[UNC-75]

I have seen him on mock drafts in the middle first round. That would be hard not to take with his injury status. If he had not been injured he might well improve his ranking by staying another year but of course if he hadn't been injured he probably would have put up great numbers and be a top choice. I would love to see him develop his game in college but given all he has been through I would expect him to go. Wish him all the good fortune in the future whether he stays or goes.

 

[LouisiAaron]

Did anyone notice in the announcement of Jayson, that the official Duke tweet included a picture of him and Giles. Does anyone think that's an accident?

Giles is gone, gone, gone. Happy to have had him, hope he stays healthy and makes a name for himself in the NBA.

They're best friends. Y'all look too much into things. If Giles knew his decision he would've announced by now. He has no reason to wait and announce if he's forsure gone

 

[dukehokie]

They're best friends. Y'all look too much into things. If Giles knew his decision he would've announced by now. He has no reason to wait and announce if he's forsure gone

Maybe his delay is not his decision, but how he will announce. His circumstance requires a little more PR finesse than Tatum announcing or Jeter transferring. Those make more sense.

 

[TheDude1]

Zero chance, if you ask me.

 

[Smythe13]

Giles is probably still collecting information from NBA team doctors.

 

[chov1125]

I'm not sure another year of college would even reward us with the real HG. The pressure and anxiety would likely be even greater next year. Let him go get paid, only then will you likely see the beast within return. You really can't blame him, none of us have been holding a winning lottery ticket over the ledge of a bridge before.

 

[bond_ james bond]

You think that much, huh?

Not anymore.