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Joey Bags

All-American
Sep 21, 2019
5,175
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Guys like Paul are way too slow to excel outside the Big 10. In a guard conference like the Big East or ACC they'd be stunted and jellied to a pulp.

PM would get 4-6 min a game on a mid pack Big East team. Starting next year we have to get Cliff 3-4 solid 3 point looks a game if we want to open things up. Anyone who watches him practice knows he can knock that s*** down.
 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
Joey Bags said:
Guys like Paul are way too slow to excel outside the Big 10. In a guard conference like the Big East or ACC they'd be stunted and jellied to a pulp.

PM would get 4-6 min a game on a mid pack Big East team. Starting next year we have to get Cliff 3-4 solid 3 point looks a game if we want to open things up. Anyone who watches him practice knows he can knock that s*** down.
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In retrospect, the BE domination of the BE/B10 Challenge wasn’t a fluke, it was an omen.
 
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R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,829
9,232
113
Joey Bags said:
Guys like Paul are way too slow to excel outside the Big 10. In a guard conference like the Big East or ACC they'd be stunted and jellied to a pulp.

PM would get 4-6 min a game on a mid pack Big East team. Starting next year we have to get Cliff 3-4 solid 3 point looks a game if we want to open things up. Anyone who watches him practice knows he can knock that s*** down.
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Four 3 point attempts a game for Cliff? I'm going to say that is excessive.

I also think you are significantly downplaying Mulcahy. He's a key contributor on a Big Ten team that made the NCAA tournament. But he'd be a 4 minute a game guy on a Big East team? Yeah I dunno about that.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
G- RUnit said:
Obviously it’s not working. May want to change their systems. Two years in a row embarrassingly wrong. Like political polling wondering if all just so wrong and simply following each other.
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It's not embarrassingly wrong, you just have unrealistic expectations about what ratings like this are supposed to accomplish.

Barttorvik's pre-tournament odds for ACC teams making the sweet 16 were:
Duke 69.8%
Virginia Tech 18.4%
North Carolina 16.5%
Miami FL 14.1%
Notre Dame 7.4%

That implies a 7% chance for 3+ ACC teams to make the Sweet 16 (I'm assuming Miami will hold on).

Do you think models are embarrassingly wrong every time 7% shots come through?
 
C

ClassOf02v.2

Heisman
Sep 30, 2010
13,750
15,177
103
Gotta start talking about the SEC too. B1G performance is not good, but SEC‘s is worse. #2 Kentucky, #2 Auburn, #3 Tennessee all fail to advance to Sweet Sixteen. Also #6 LSU loses to #11 ISU in first round.
 
J

Joey Bags

All-American
Sep 21, 2019
5,175
5,311
1
RU-05 said:
Four 3 point attempts a game for Cliff? I'm going to say that is excessive.

I also think you are significantly downplaying Mulcahy. He's a key contributor on a Big Ten team that made the NCAA tournament. But he'd be a 4 minute a game guy on a Big East team? Yeah I dunno about that.
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It's not really his fault, he's great for the style of play in the big 10 but he's one step behind speed-wise to compete on other top tier conferences.

I think he's built well for what we do at RU in the conference we're in.
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,659
86,657
113
According to last year's performance, the Big 10 is not exactly a laggard:

"
1. The Big East leads all conferences with an 80.1 percent winning percentage, ahead of the Big 12 (76.5%), Big Ten (75.7%), ACC (75.3%), Pac-12 (74.2%), AAC (70.5%) and SEC (70.4%).


2. The Big Ten has beaten the highest number of conferences — 30."



And while the Big Ten has historically won fewer titles, since 1985, data from 1985-2018 is in line with the above:

 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
Knight Shift said:
According to last year's performance, the Big 10 is not exactly a laggard:

"
1. The Big East leads all conferences with an 80.1 percent winning percentage, ahead of the Big 12 (76.5%), Big Ten (75.7%), ACC (75.3%), Pac-12 (74.2%), AAC (70.5%) and SEC (70.4%).


2. The Big Ten has beaten the highest number of conferences — 30."



And while the Big Ten has historically won fewer titles, since 1985, data from 1985-2018 is in line with the above:

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This is all well and good.

But IMO you’ve already lost when you have to argue these kind of stats to explain away DECADES of abject failure when it counts.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,829
9,232
113
Joey Bags said:
It's not really his fault, he's great for the style of play in the big 10 but he's one step behind speed-wise to compete on other top tier conferences.

I think he's built well for what we do at RU in the conference we're in.
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I agree that quickness is a weakness but he does make up for it with size, a good handle and court vision. Overall he's a solid player and I think he'd be a solid player in any other conference as well.
 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
RU-05 said:
Four 3 point attempts a game for Cliff? I'm going to say that is excessive.

I also think you are significantly downplaying Mulcahy. He's a key contributor on a Big Ten team that made the NCAA tournament. But he'd be a 4 minute a game guy on a Big East team? Yeah I dunno about that.
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Agreed.

Just look at SHU, for example.

Mulcahy would without question not start.

But he would be an important part of the rotation and average WAY more that four mins IMO.
 
C

cyrock3

All-Conference
Dec 19, 2006
38,183
2,064
103
Purdue is up, but as a team they are playing pathetically soft.

Jaden Ivey is doing nothing. Without that 20-0 run they would be getting blown out.

If this was Rutgers I would have destroyed my tv set. They are losing every 50-50 ball.

Hope they put some effort here.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
burtmanjack said:
When the question is “How have you performed in the NCAAs over the last twenty-plus years” and you can’t start with how many championships you’ve won, you’ve already admitted defeat.
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That's absurd.

If Gonzaga strings a bunch of championships, will that make the WCC the best conference? Championships are worth something but they are not everything.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,829
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cyrock3 said:
Purdue is up, but as a team they are playing pathetically soft.

Jaden Ivey is doing nothing. Without that 20-0 run they would be getting blown out.

If this was Rutgers I would have destroyed my tv set. They are losing every 50-50 ball.

Hope they put some effort here.
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Why is everything "pathetic" or "embarrassing" these days?
 
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C

ClassOf02v.2

Heisman
Sep 30, 2010
13,750
15,177
103
B1G 3 point shooting performance today:

Illinois: 6/25 (24%)
OSU: 7/22 (32%)
MSU: 11/22 (50%) — they played well against Duke, had a shot
UW: 2/22 (9%)
Purude: 1/9 (11%) — 14 minutes to go still
 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
fluoxetine said:
That's absurd.

If Gonzaga strings a bunch of championships, will that make the WCC the best conference? Championships are worth something but they are not everything.
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No it’s not absurd at all.

Of course championships alone aren’t dispositive.

But the COMPLETE ABSENCE of any - especially when you get more bids year in and year out - certainly is.
 
C

cyrock3

All-Conference
Dec 19, 2006
38,183
2,064
103
RU-05 said:
Why is everything "pathetic" or "embarrassing" these days?
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Not from me. I’m just calling out this specific instance.

If another team goes 10 minutes without scoring a bucket you should be routing them. I think we can establish that a baseline.

It looks like they are starting to wake up which is good.
 
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F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
burtmanjack said:
No it’s not absurd at all.

Of course championships alone aren’t dispositive.

But the COMPLETE ABSENCE of any - especially when you get more bids year in and year out - certainly is.
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Nah.

Championships are the noisiest statistic. Even the best team in the country only has a 25-30% chance of winning the tournament. You would need to play for hundreds of years for that to even itself out.
 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
fluoxetine said:
Nah.

Championships are the noisiest statistic. Even the best team in the country only has a 25-30% chance of winning the tournament. You would need to play for hundreds of years for that to even itself out.
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First, if you haven’t won a single championship over 22 years with more chances than any other league, you simply have no claim to be the best conference. Full stop.

Second, while that may be the case wrt a single team in a single year, those numbers are entirely irrelevant when considering multiple (and more than most) teams every year over 22 years. More at bats, but still fewer hits means you probably aren’t the best hitter.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,829
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113
cyrock3 said:
Not from me. I’m just calling out this specific instance.

If another team goes 10 minutes without scoring a bucket you should be routing them. I think we can establish that a baseline.

It looks like they are starting to wake up which is good.
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I mean, maybe. College b-ball has always been a game of runs. One team goes on a run, and then the other team goes on a run of it's own. This one was extreme for sure though.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
burtmanjack said:
First, if you haven’t won a single championship over 22 years with more chances than any other league, you simply have no claim to be the best conference. Full stop.
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Are there a lot of people claiming the Big Ten was the best conference over a 22 year span? This seems like a strawman. I would claim the Big Ten as the best conference in 2019-20 and 2020-21 (and I still think they were in 20-21 despite the tourney flameout). I would claim them as second best this season.

Before that, I have no idea, I always viewed it as a fairly normal power conference.

burtmanjack said:
Second, while that may be the case wrt a single team in a single year, those numbers are entirely irrelevant when considering multiple (and more than most) teams every year over 22 years. More at bats, but still fewer hits is a bad place to be.
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It's still far noisier than any other stat. And it also measures a different thing. Most conference rankings rank the entire body of the conference and not necessarily "most likely to produce champion". Going back to Bart, he has the Big Ten as #2 in conference ratings which is consistent with most other rating systems. But if you go to his tournament odds and calculate which conference was most likely to win the title (again using pre-tournament odds):

WCC
28.4​
B12
20.2​
SEC
15.5​
Amer
9​
P12
9​
B10
8.2​
ACC
4.6​
BE
4.1​
 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
fluoxetine said:
Are there a lot of people claiming the Big Ten was the best conference over a 22 year span? This seems like a strawman. I would claim the Big Ten as the best conference in 2019-20 and 2020-21 (and I still think they were in 20-21 despite the tourney flameout). I would claim them as second best this season.

Before that, I have no idea, I always viewed it as a fairly normal power conference.


It's still far noisier than any other stat. And it also measures a different thing. Most conference rankings rank the entire body of the conference and not necessarily "most likely to produce champion". Going back to Bart, he has the Big Ten as #2 in conference ratings which is consistent with most other rating systems. But if you go to his tournament odds and calculate which conference was most likely to win the title (again using pre-tournament odds):

WCC
28.4​
B12
20.2​
SEC
15.5​
Amer
9​
P12
9​
B10
8.2​
ACC
4.6​
BE
4.1​
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Well, I guess you are entitled to your opinion, but the empirical facts of tournament failure over those years really undermine your position.

The 18-1 Pats were almost certainly the best team in the NFL, and can whip out some scary stats to “prove” it.

See also: the early 90s Buffalo Bills.

And no one cares.

There’s a reason for that.
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
burtmanjack said:
Well, I guess you are entitled to your opinion, but the empirical facts of tournament failure over those years really undermine your position.
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? Which years? Of the two years I claimed only one even had a tournament.
burtmanjack said:
The 18-1 Pats were almost certainly the best team in the NFL, and can whip out some scary stats to “prove” it.

See also: the early 90s Buffalo Bills.

And no one cares.

There’s a reason for that.
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Ok, but if I say the 18-1 Pats were the best team in the NFL I'm still right. Whether anyone cares is a separate argument entirely.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,688
177,385
113
Purdue has this......I think there is potential for things to get ugly for St Peters
 
B

burtmanjack

Freshman
Feb 1, 2020
128
57
0
fluoxetine said:
? Which years? Of the two years I claimed only one even had a tournament.

Ok, but if I say the 18-1 Pats were the best team in the NFL I'm still right. Whether anyone cares is a separate argument entirely.
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You’d def have a good case for your opinion.

But i don’t think you’d be indisputably “right”, since the Pats not only didn’t win the championship, but also split two coin-flip games with the team that did.

bottom line - it’s a debate. Just like best conference.

there is no dispute that the B10 is an EXCELLENT conference.

but they are perennially overrated here and in the media, and disappoint in crunch time consistently.

both are true IMO.

like I said, an opinion.
 
C

cyrock3

All-Conference
Dec 19, 2006
38,183
2,064
103
Glad Purdue got out of this one alive. I think Painter is going to ream them out regardless.

I see this being ugly for St. Peters.
 
R

RUforJERSEY

Heisman
Jul 29, 2001
24,822
10,022
113
I think Purdue goes to the FF. If they can gef by St. Peters. 😀 Also I admire the hell out of Andrew Jones on Texas. Battled Leukemia twice to come back and play.
 
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