Very rough first crack at Bacatology

[RUDieHard]

I think we need a road win that would be Q1 so actually I would put that one first

1. road win
2. beating Q3 Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin

obviously road wins at Purdue or Wisconsin or preferable

need minimum of 4 wins to be in play heading into the Big 10 tourney

If we win the next two, we are in great shape. The way we are playing now, it is feasible.

 

[bac2therac]

easier said then done, we have not had a road win ever in the Big 10 on the level of beating Wisconsin

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think we need a road win that would be Q1 so actually I would put that one first

1. road win
2. beating Q3 Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin

obviously road wins at Purdue or Wisconsin or preferable

need minimum of 4 wins to be in play heading into the Big 10 tourney

4-4 most important. Nothing else matters without that. We also want the bottom part of the standings to keep losing to the top. Need as many opportunities for signature wins as possible - keeping in mind that every time one of the top 4 loses to us, their NET takes a hit. If they start losing to NW and Maryland that’s not a good thing.

 

[superfan01]

@bac2therac might be a dumb question.

but if we switch the Lafayette loss to a win and the Purdue win to a loss would that have helped us more in the eyes of the committee?

we would still have same record. Have worse big record and 1 less quad 1 win but have that Lafayette loss off our record.

 

[bac2therac]

interesting question.....we would eliminate the bad loss off of the resume so going forward just the UMass. It would leave us with one less quality win HOWEVER we would still have chances like now. The issue is we lost too many games to mediocre competition. I am not sure we are in any better spot because I still think we would have to win 5 games to be secure. Even in your scenerio 17-13 would be sort of sketchy with just 4 wins, so to answer your question I dont think it changes anything other than if we got the 5 more league wins, I think we would easily get in as a lock

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

The 5 games that are hurting our resume the most in order..

1) Lafayette 51-53 RU 71.5 Laf 87.3 -15.8
2) @ Illinois 51-86 RU 88.0 Ill 104.3 -16.3
3) Maryland 60-68 RU 95.7 Md. 111.3 -15.6
4) @ PSU 49-66 RU 83.8 PSU 97.0 -13.2
5) Lehigh 73-70(OT) RU 82.1 Lehigh 92.5 -10.4

 

[kcg88]

San Francisco took a very very damaging Q4 loss. That's going to take them from safely in to clearly out.

 

[bac2therac]

San Francisco took a very very damaging Q4 loss. That's going to take them from safely in to clearly out.

Going to have to beat Gonzaga

 

[kcg88]

Going to have to beat Gonzaga

Combined with BYU's loss to Pacific a week and a half ago the WCC is shooting itself in the foot. Might be down to only Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the field. If BYU can win at St. Mary's then perhaps all three could make it.

 

[bac2therac]

BYU has taken on a lot of losses. I know they have good metrics and wins but they are a bit shaky too going forward. I do not think they can lose again because that could give them 10 losses including one in the WCC tourney. Its a sloppy profile much like Rutgers will have

 

[bac2therac]

have you seen the updated NET anywhere, usually its in by now but it hasnt been updated and its 10 AM already

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

have you seen the updated NET anywhere, usually its in by now but it hasnt been updated and its 10 AM already

Maybe all of the WCC upsets broke the system

 

[bac2therac]

so with the games last night

Arkansas pretty much locked down a bid with the win over Auburn

Stanford missed a shot at getting a quality win as they lost to UCLA at home. Very bubblicious

St Mary's goes down at Sant Clara, still safely in the field for now but the conference is taking a hit lately

San Francisco loses a Q4 game to Portland that probably sends them to the last 4 in/last 4 out grouping

North Carolina kept their profile clean by winning at Clemson. Its actually one of their better wins

Vandy kept their slim hopes alive by knocking off Missouri

WVU good Q2 win over Iowa State, probably gets them on the good side of the last 4 in but really need to keep winning. Iowa State starting to take on a lot of losses but still safe for now

VCU knocks off Rhody to stay on the distant bubble

Wyoming big overtime win at home over Utah State to really solidify their profile. Utah State meanwhile now with 10 losses is most likely done

Toledo moves to projected AQ from the MAC as they knocked off Ohio

LSU stopped the bleeding with a win over Texas A&M. The latter's hopes are dwindling

TCU continues to march on to a likely NCAA bid by taking care of Okie State

Indiana losing to Northwestern with players suspended wasnt good, watch them moving forward, still comfortably in for now

Colorado State avoided the landmine at Nevada to continue to be on the good side of the bubble

Long Beach State won the showdown in the Big West with Cal State Fullerton to move into the AQ spot

Michigan narrowly avoided disaster at Penn State but so much work to do

St Louis won at La Salle to continue to inch up the bubble order

Creighton avoided a bad loss to Butler at home to stay in the field

UConn knocked off Marquette, both appear pretty solid right now

 

[kcg88]

BYU has taken on a lot of losses. I know they have good metrics and wins but they are a bit shaky too going forward. I do not think they can lose again because that could give them 10 losses including one in the WCC tourney. Its a sloppy profile much like Rutgers will have

WCC/Mountain West teams taking Q4 losses is a great outcome for high-major bubble teams.

BTW Just looked at San Diego State's resume. They're currently IN on BracketMatrix. Hoo boy that's a weak bubble team. 1-5 in Q1. 2-1 Q2 and no bad losses but they don't have any Q1 home games remaining. Gonna be a tough hill to climb for them.

Gut says the MWC/WCC wind up combining for 5 bids. San Francisco's loss means that BYU's win over them loses some luster.

 

[bac2therac]

clean profiles help, I do not like San Diego State's profile at this time and I think bracketologists are being too lenient with them at this time. I think as other schools make their push thats when the Aztecs become rather pedestrian....still if they make the MWC finals they have a decent shot, I just think they are going to be sitting on the last 4 in and last 4 out line the rest of the year.

 

[kcg88]

have you seen the updated NET anywhere, usually its in by now but it hasnt been updated and its 10 AM already

It's updated now.

 

[bac2therac]

NET finally updated. RU still at 99

Have to worry about Michigan State staying a Q1 as they are now down to 26. Iowa is at 21. Purdue up to 4

San Francisco fell from 32 to 41

 

[goru7]

NET finally updated. RU still at 99

Have to worry about Michigan State staying a Q1 as they are now down to 26. Iowa is at 21. Purdue up to 4

San Francisco fell from 32 to 41

Michigan with a 1 point road win at Penn State moves up 5 places on # 89 Penn State and Penn State actually moves to #88 but Rutgers who beat Michigan handily and lost to Penn State handily remains at #99. No way that Michigan wins deserved a 5 spot move and we didn’t move up at all , considering Purdue and Northwestern won as well. We beat Michigan State who was # 17 and only moved up 11 spots from 111 to 100 and they were ranked and a Quad 1. Michigan barely beating a Quad 2 didn’t deserve a 5 spot move forward. The NET sucks.

 

[bac2therac]

Michigan with a 1 point road win at Penn State moves up 5 places on # 89 Penn State and Penn State actually moves to #88 but Rutgers who beat Michigan handily and lost to Penn State handily remains at #99. No way that Michigan wins deserved a 5 spot move and we didn’t move up at all , considering Purdue and Northwestern won as well. We beat Michigan State who was # 17 and only moved up 11 spots from 111 to 100 and they were ranked and a Quad 1. Michigan barely beating a Quad 2 didn’t deserve a 5 spot move forward. The NET sucks.

you dont understand...Michigan won on the road. Rutgers didnt play, why would they move up. Rutgers has some terrible efficiency ratings and has two horrific losses, when are you going to understand that. Stop being caught up in the NET rankings. RU will not have a better net than 60 even if it goes 5-3 the rest of the way. Michigan isnt even in the last 8 out right now

you simply cannot lose to one of the worst teams in college hoops which by the way was just annihilated again the other night by alot

 

[goru7]

you dont understand...Michigan won on the road. Rutgers didnt play, why would they move up. Rutgers has some terrible efficiency ratings and has two horrific losses, when are you going to understand that.

you simply cannot lose to one of the worst teams in college hoops which by the way was just annihilated again the other night by alot

Teams move up in the Net when they don’t play all the time depending on results of other games. Since Michigan and Purdue won last night our wins over them have greater value than a sole loss to Penn State.

You really have to stop with your incessant ******** about the Lafayette loss. It has already been factored in and why we are 99 and not 49 or 59. So stop repeating it. They have already punished us for it. The issue going forward is our results and the results of the other teams we have played.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Florida’s profile doesn’t look all that different to me from ours - not understanding their computer numbers.

We both have an awful Q4 loss. Both have only 2 road wins.

They have one less Q3 loss (and overall loss) but we have 3 Q1 wins versus their 1. We also have 5 combined Q1 and 2 va their 4 combined. We’ve beaten 3 teams projected to make the field, they’ve only beaten one.

They are currently projected in the field - both CBS and ESPN. We’re not even on the radar. What am I missing?

Oh yeah - and before someone points to their one good - OSU win being at a neutral venue - the game was played in Fort Myers which is hardly neutral even if the computer numbers say otherwise.

 

[goru7]

you dont understand...Michigan won on the road. Rutgers didnt play, why would they move up. Rutgers has some terrible efficiency ratings and has two horrific losses, when are you going to understand that. Stop being caught up in the NET rankings. RU will not have a better net than 60 even if it goes 5-3 the rest of the way. Michigan isnt even in the last 8 out right now

you simply cannot lose to one of the worst teams in college hoops which by the way was just annihilated again the other night by alot

Another thing you do not seem bothered by but you should if you are evaluating teams , is margin of victory or defeat or something called game flow , where one team was ahead almost the entire game wire to wire. We have lost the 5 games that you crucify us for by 2( Lafayette ) , 2 ( UMASS ) , 3 ( DePaul ) and 3 Minnesota and 1 ( Northwestern. ). Michigan has been lambasted lost by 18 to Arizona on a neutral floor , by 21 to UNC on the road and was down over 30 late, by 10 at home to Minnesota , by 14 to UCF away , by 8 to Rutgers but double digit wire to wire effort most of the way , by 15 to Illinois away and by 16 to MSU away. That is 7 non competitive games . We have 3 games that we should be punished for : Illinois , Seton Hall and Penn State , a blowout no show and a 14 and 17 point loss . Any rating system that just counts wins and losses and does not account for game flow is flawed and the eye test needs to take over.

 

[kcg88]

Teams move up in the Net when they don’t play all the time depending on results of other games. Since Michigan and Purdue won last night our wins over them have greater value than a sole loss to Penn State.

You really have to stop with your incessant ******** about the Lafayette loss. It has already been factored in and why we are 99 and not 49 or 59. So stop repeating it. They have already punished us for it. The issue going forward is our results and the results of the other teams we have played.

No team that didn't play is ever going to move more than 1 or 2 spots. So is your issue that we didn't move up from 99 to 97?

Another thing you do not seem bothered by but you should if you are evaluating teams , is margin of victory or defeat or something called game flow , where one team was ahead almost the entire game wire to wire. We have lost the 5 games that you crucify us for by 2( Lafayette ) , 2 ( UMASS ) , 3 ( DePaul ) and 3 Minnesota and 1 ( Northwestern. ). Michigan has been lambasted lost by 18 to Arizona on a neutral floor , by 21 to UNC on the road and was down over 30 late, by 10 at home to Minnesota , by 14 to UCF away , by 8 to Rutgers but double digit wire to wire effort most of the way , by 15 to Illinois away and by 16 to MSU away. That is 7 non competitive games . We have 3 games that we should be punished for : Illinois , Seton Hall and Penn State , a blowout no show and a 14 and 17 point loss . Any rating system that just counts wins and losses and does not account for game flow is flawed and the eye test needs to take over.

Take your blinders off man. What about when we were down 20 at home to Maryland?

 

[bac2therac]

Another thing you do not seem bothered by but you should if you are evaluating teams , is margin of victory or defeat or something called game flow , where one team was ahead almost the entire game wire to wire. We have lost the 5 games that you crucify us for by 2( Lafayette ) , 2 ( UMASS ) , 3 ( DePaul ) and 3 Minnesota and 1 ( Northwestern. ). Michigan has been lambasted lost by 18 to Arizona on a neutral floor , by 21 to UNC on the road and was down over 30 late, by 10 at home to Minnesota , by 14 to UCF away , by 8 to Rutgers but double digit wire to wire effort most of the way , by 15 to Illinois away and by 16 to MSU away. That is 7 non competitive games . We have 3 games that we should be punished for : Illinois , Seton Hall and Penn State , a blowout no show and a 14 and 17 point loss . Any rating system that just counts wins and losses and does not account for game flow is flawed and the eye test needs to take over.

Game flow mean zero

 

[kcg88]

Florida’s profile doesn’t look all that different to me from ours - not understanding their computer numbers.

We both have an awful Q4 loss. Both have only 2 road wins.

They have one less Q3 loss (and overall loss) but we have 3 Q1 wins versus their 1. We also have 5 combined Q1 and 2 va their 4 combined. We’ve beaten 3 teams projected to make the field, they’ve only beaten one.

They are currently projected in the field - both CBS and ESPN. We’re not even on the radar. What am I missing?

Oh yeah - and before someone points to their one good - OSU win being at a neutral venue - the game was played in Fort Myers which is hardly neutral even if the computer numbers say otherwise.

New rule: Whenever a number looks funky, just remember, the Lafayette loss truly was that wretched.

They've played a tougher schedule and their bad loss isn't as bad as ours: Texas Southern is #177, Lafayette is #321. They lost to Maryland on a neutral, we lost to Maryland at home. Their next-worst road loss is Ole Miss (#104), ours was UMass (#167).

Their wins by 15+ points: Florida State by 16, Milwaukee by 36, Cal by 20, Troy by 39, North Florida by 30, Stony Brook by 25, Vandy by 19

Our wins by 15+ points: Maine by 16, CCSU by 31, Nebraska by 28, Michigan State by 21

Michigan State is the most impressive of the bunch, but they have far more. They also didn't lose a game by 35 points. I think people are underrating just how damaging some of these extremes can be (Rutgers losing to Lafayette is the worst loss of the season in terms of tournament resume by any team and I'm honestly not sure it's that close, and getting beat down by 35 will kill your efficiency rating)

 

[bac2therac]

If Lafayette didn't beat Rutgers their NET would probably be 360

 

[goru7]

No team that didn't play is ever going to move more than 1 or 2 spots. So is your issue that we didn't move up from 99 to 97?


Take your blinders off man. What about when we were down 20 at home to Maryland?

What is your point about Maryland ? We beat them by 11 on the road and the NET loves road wins that counterbalances the home loss and Maryland is 100 not 200. So why are you hammering us . Teams in the ACC , BiG 12 and PAC 12 and Big East lose all the time in their league to teams below them in the standings and they do not get punished the way you want to punish us. You were killing Rutgers for the DePaul loss and they are at 103 so not terrible and just last game they beat a ranked Xavier team on the road and they were winning wire to wire . You love to knock Rutgers without looking around the country. There are no great teams and ranked teams are being beat by unranked teams more often than ever. Upsets are happening probably more than any other year .
Yes we should have moved a few spots. Plus FLORIDA AS was mentioned above has a similar profile and is 50 spots higher not just the ******** with Michigan . The NET has a lot of quirks , has flaws and unfortunately is given too much credence.

 

[goru7]

Game flow mean zero

And why is that?

 

[bac2therac]

Maryland is a Quad 3 loss..its a bad loss

 

[bac2therac]

And why is that?

Because rutgers game flow vs all the bottom feeders was horrendous

 

[StevieB160]

With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak

The 2026 bubble is starting to look weak to me.

 

[bac2therac]

The 2026 bubble is starting to look weak to me.

I see that too

 

[goru7]

New rule: Whenever a number looks funky, just remember, the Lafayette loss truly was that wretched.

They've played a tougher schedule and their bad loss isn't as bad as ours: Texas Southern is #177, Lafayette is #321. They lost to Maryland on a neutral, we lost to Maryland at home. Their next-worst road loss is Ole Miss (#104), ours was UMass (#167).

Their wins by 15+ points: Florida State by 16, Milwaukee by 36, Cal by 20, Troy by 39, North Florida by 30, Stony Brook by 25, Vandy by 19

Our wins by 15+ points: Maine by 16, CCSU by 31, Nebraska by 28, Michigan State by 21

Michigan State is the most impressive of the bunch, but they have far more. They also didn't lose a game by 35 points. I think people are underrating just how damaging some of these extremes can be (Rutgers losing to Lafayette is the worst loss of the season in terms of tournament resume by any team and I'm honestly not sure it's that close, and getting beat down by 35 will kill your efficiency rating)

Let’s look more closely at Florida. Their best win is a 3 point win over Ohio State (NET17) in a neutral court win in Florida .(Orlando) Their next best wins are both home to # 49 Miss. State by 8 and to #58 Oklahoma State. Right now only 1 of those wins is going to be against an NCAA team (Ohio State ) with Miss State on the bubble and OKla State ineligible . Their next highest win is over Vanderbilt (82)and Florida State ( 85)both at home and as of now both out.
They lost to all of the better teams in their conference to Auburn by 12, Tennessee by 7 , and at home by 13 to Alabama and at home to LSU by 6. They also lost to Ole Miss(104) by 16 away and beat them by 5 at home. Their loss to Texas Southern (177) on their home court was by 15 not by a beater buzzer , plus they lost to MAryland by 2 on a neutral and to Oklahoma (48) on the road in the challenge.
So they have 1 win over a top 48 team over Ohio State by 3 on a neutral court in Orlando , Florida. That is it.
Rutgers has wins over Purdue (4) , Iowa 21, Michigan State 17 at the time and now 26, and Michigan now 47. All at home and Michigan State and Michigan were comfortable dominant wins. That is 3 top wins to their 1 and if you add Michigan and their Miss State wins it is 4-2 in the top 50.

Their 2 true road wins are over SoCarolina (106) by 8 and at Missouri( 143) by 1 and our 2 is at Maryland(100) by 11 and at Nebraska (187) by 2. Very similar road wins.

Why in the world in any rating system that evaluates the capability of teams for the tournament should they be 43 and Rutgers 99 based upon a closer examination of their resume. Losing at home by 15 to Texas Southern should be almost as bad as losing to Lafayette on a buzzer beater . Either they shouldn’t be that high at 43 or we shouldn’t be so low at 99 .

 

[RUsojo]

Let’s look more closely at Florida. Their best win is a 3 point win over Ohio State (NET17) in a neutral court win in Florida .(Orlando) Their next best wins are both home to # 49 Miss. State by 8 and to #58 Oklahoma State. Right now only 1 of those wins is going to be against an NCAA team (Ohio State ) with Miss State on the bubble and OKla State ineligible . Their next highest win is over Vanderbilt (82)and Florida State ( 85)both at home and as of now both out.
They lost to all of the better teams in their conference to Auburn by 12, Tennessee by 7 , and at home by 13 to Alabama and at home to LSU by 6. They also lost to Ole Miss(104) by 16 away and beat them by 5 at home. Their loss to Texas Southern (177) on their home court was by 15 not by a beater buzzer , plus they lost to MAryland by 2 on a neutral and to Oklahoma (48) on the road in the challenge.
So they have 1 win over a top 48 team over Ohio State by 3 on a neutral court in Orlando , Florida. That is it.
Rutgers has wins over Purdue (4) , Iowa 21, Michigan State 17 at the time and now 26, and Michigan now 47. All at home and Michigan State and Michigan were comfortable dominant wins. That is 3 top wins to their 1 and if you add Michigan and their Miss State wins it is 4-2 in the top 50.

Their 2 true road wins are over SoCarolina (106) by 8 and at Missouri( 143) by 1 and our 2 is at Maryland(100) by 11 and at Nebraska (187) by 2. Very similar road wins.

Why in the world in any rating system that evaluates the capability of teams for the tournament should they be 43 and Rutgers 99 based upon a closer examination of their resume. Losing at home by 15 to Texas Southern should be almost as bad as losing to Lafayette on a buzzer beater . Either they shouldn’t be that high at 43 or we shouldn’t be so low at 99 .

Because we lost to Lafayette. That simple.

 

[RUsojo]

Also the amount of people trying to argue away our worst loss because of a buzzer beater while ignoring the outcome of our buzzer beating best win (what I think will be best two wins by end of year rankings if you think about end of Iowa game basically)…well the irony isn’t lost on me at least. Body of work people. More games to come.

 

[bac2therac]

add in Lehigh which is a buzzer beater we survived another sister of the poor

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Davidson
Murray St
UAB

Those are the serious contenders

Then you have the topsy turvy Mountain West and always the chance Houston gets knocked off in the what looks like one bid AAC

I’d put Davidson at like a 20%-30% chance of winning the A10t

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You do realize that doing the bactaology at the request of those wanting to see where ru fits is almost a guarantee RU losses and the interest in the bubble in early Feb goes to 0

 

[bac2therac]

You do realize that doing the bactaology at the request of those wanting to see where ru fits is almost a guarantee RU losses and the interest in the bubble in early Feb goes to 0

tonight isnt a must win neither is Wisconsin so on we go

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Because we lost to Lafayette. That simple.

It’s still only one game. Wasn’t there one year that Syracuse lost to a D2 school early season and then went on to the finals?