The percentages of the returning players mean very little other than that their young players were disciplined. Most of those guys were only attempting very high percentage shots in role player minutes made possible by the stars surrounding them. As you said, those guys are gone and there’s nothing remaining to expect Iowa to be a strong offensive team again - especially if Connor and Toussiant are both starters. Both those guys can defend, but Iowa’s problem will be that they may need Bohannon in the game to score. The combination of Bohannon and a center who will be transitioning from Summit league to BIG defense figures to be a problem on the defensive end.
Rutgers is projected first team out
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Nobody said we don’t have questions or concerns. The discussion was about Iowa being projected to finish ahead of us (make the field vs. RU first 4 out). On paper it seems they have a lot more questions than RU. Going player by player you didn’t seem to disagree but yet you still said you expect them to be better than us.
Both teams have a ton of questions. As I said….I’d take their 8 over ours based on what I know. My conviction is not strong at all.
But yet when top 8 was presented side by side - you didn’t pick any of their known guys over ours let alone their top 8.
If possible chemistry issues with the NIL is your concern, don’t forget they have Bohannon. Also, Iowa could be stuck with the elephant in the room with 2 sons of the coach on the team if those guys aren’t clearly better than other players (as it is there are media satire articles instigating that dad should’ve sent one of them to the transfer portal). Last year this was a non factor since the established stars were getting the bulk of PT. If the McCaffery brothers aren’t clearly better than the others but play a ton there could easily be resentments there.
This doesn’t mean I think we’re a lock to make the field or that I don’t have concerns about our team development. But if half of our returning players improve slightly and the other half stay the same - we’re still likely a bubble team at worse or not too far from it. In my opinion, Iowa needs much more development than this to be in the conversation. They have no proven playmakers and the closest thing to it (Bohannon) is a very poor defender. Again, not an ideal predicament when you’ll also be transitioning in a 5 whose used to defending in the Summit League. Also - what is the plan for backing up the ND transfer? Concerns on both sides of the ball.
Not concerned about NIL at all. Concerned about scoring and defending. I see us as a 6-14ish team right now, but realize we have potential upside AND there could be some down teams. Iowa could be 5-15 who knows.
We were a strong defensive team in both 2018-19 (no JY) and 2019-20 (more limited role) and with Geo playing nearly the whole game. Geo is not the weak link, nor is JY the “end all glue” in the backcourt. JY was helpful in ending scoring droughts in iso. He played a very limited role in elevating the game of other players around him in general offense flow. Neither really did MJ - it’s true that his defense will be missed, but his play did not help other players excel on either end of the floor. He didn’t pose enough of an offensive threat to take focus off others not was he double teaming and bailing out others on poor defense. He ended up on the bench when he tried that. If you look at 2019-20 we are replacing a few players who played 23 or less minutes per game while retaining 4 guys from that team who now have another season under their belts (2 had been playing hurt and are now better) plus some new blood coming in. Seems like we’re in pretty good shape.
Myles Johnson was the glue to our defense. He should have been the B1G defensive player of the year. Jacob was a disruptive defender. Montez was one of our better defenders, but disappointed last year a bit in this category.
This year we will rely on length and Cliff. Cliff will need to stay on the court and play 25-28 minutes.
Iowa is missing Weiskamp and Garza on offense. That is like RU missing Jacob and Myles on D.
This year we will rely on length and Cliff. Cliff will need to stay on the court and play 25-28 minutes.
Iowa is missing Weiskamp and Garza on offense. That is like RU missing Jacob and Myles on D.
We were better offensively with Johnson on the floor, mostly because of his offensive rebounding but also partly due to his passing. He was pulling down 4.4 ORB/40 min to Omoruyi's 2.2. He was also contributing 1.3 ast/40 min to Omoruyi's 0.5. (Johnson's ast/tov ratio was 0.65 to Omoruyi's 0.40, too).
Hoping Omoruyi takes some steps forward in these areas in the offseason.
We both know he most likely will....how much is the question. I also believe during his career he will be a perimeter shooter, maybe not next year.
Those stats kind of support the point I was trying to make though. It’s not that MJ didn’t help our offense at all, but if your saying that over a 40 minute period the big offensive impact of having MJ in the game vs. Cliff would be 2 extra offensive boards and 1 assist that doesn’t seem all that bad. In reality MJ only played about 24 mpg (60% of each game) so if Dean / Agee sufficiently replace frosh Cliff’s offense (I know that’s not a given but for the moment we’re talking specifically about MJ’s impact), we’d be talking about a net negative impact of 1.3 offensive boards and 0.5 assists difference per game if Cliff doesn’t improve at all. This wouldn’t be a drastic impact on the overall flow of the offense which is what I was getting at.
To be clear, it is nothing at all like losing a 24 ppg player like Garza who played close to every meaningful minute outside of garbage time. Everyone else becomes much more statistically efficient when you have a guy like that on the floor constantly to account for.
It’s not quite the same. Putting aside the fact that Garza played the entire game most games except garbage time (but that too is a notable difference).
On offense, one player’s elite production significantly impacts the output potential of other players on the floor. That’s not the case with defense - in fact, to a good offensive team the opposing defense is only as good as it’s weakest link. By the end of last season, that wasn’t Cliff. He was holding his own. The weak link was typically Paul but hopefully he will improve in off season training. I’m optimistic that the weakest link of 5 players on the floor will be better this season than last year if for no other reason that the returning 5 will be a year more experienced and Hyatt is known for strong defense. In my opinion, if the worst of our 5 defenders on the floor is more effective than the worst defender on the floor this year, the defense will be better even without MJ. At least that’s my prediction.
Johnson averaged 2.9 ORB in 24.7 min, and Omoruyi 0.8 in 14.9 min.... if he got 24.7 min, that'd go up to 1.4 ORB, if he had the same level of performance year over year. I expect him to improve there, though - the drop from a seasoned RS Jr to a true frosh was big last year, but as a sophomore I'd expect Omoruyi to have a better feel for what he needs to do to go up and get those boards.
As for assists, Johnson only averaged 0.8 ast per game, but he did have the ball in his hands a fair amount and did a decent job passing the ball out of double teams and passing from the top of the key. Most didn't end up as shots (or made shots for assists), but the ball moved better when he was in the game. I'd like to think Omoruyi can improve in this area, too, just by getting more comfortable in the role.
Setting aside the "filling the holes" part of the conversation, I think Omoruyi brings elements to his game that Johnson just didn't have. He has shown he can shoot the ball, and isn't limited to shots within 2 feet of the basket - which I expect to see more of as he grows more comfortable as the everyday starter. He's also much faster in transition, and will be there to clean up the boards on runouts and still get back on defense.
I haven't seen this thread but it just comes down to common sense....I keep seeing the ridiculous notion that Jacob and Myles were the most important pieces or players on RU, when in every single game, they were the 3rd or 4th options focused on by an opponent.
The 1st and 2nd options when you scout an opponent is to make the team go to their 2nd, then 3rd, then 4th and hopefully the 5th best option....that 4th or 5th best option is usually the measurement of how good your team actually is.....
So when Izzo or Turgeon or any coach scouts RU, you have to start your game plan with RHJ and Baker.....then the 3rd best offensive option, then 4th etc....when fans foolishly judge production on stats and don't account for what a team's coaching staff is designed to "take away", you can be fooled.
As far as Iowa is concerned, they are a "system based" offense that is run with the actual hope of being able to work, all the way down to the 4th and 5th options being able to score....in fact I believe Fran McCaffery actually would rather emphasize his 4th and 5th options being able to score, at the expense of having that 5th option being a defense 1st player, who can stop a Geo Baker or RHJ on the other end of the court.
The Geo can't shoot nonsense is ridiculous.....if you look at his shooting as a frosh, his percentages are better then, vs the next 3 years.....Why....?? Because he was playing along side Corey Sanders, who was a better guard, athlete, defensive player than Baker, but who was charged with carrying a inefficient group on his back for 18 B1G games.....Sanders "stats" as a junior were worse than Bakers as a frosh.....if I looked at just stats, I would think Baker is as good as Sanders.
With Myles and Young, their stats were carried because RHJ and Baker were focus 1 and 2 by opponents, not because they were better.
Why I think RU will be fine without Young and Myles, is because this year's 3rd and 4th options, will move the ball and not turn it over as much.
And why did Mathis end up seemingly with the ball in his hands more than not....?? Was that the defense making the 4th or 5th option beat the opponents game plan, and Mathis couldn't?? Was it a situation, where he just decided he wanted to try and score and failed more, leading to opponents getting easier baskets.....?? It is tough when your 4th or 5th options on offense, doesn't deliver, doesn't make the extra pass and makes your coaching, teamwork and chemistry decline over the course of the season.......
And when that happens, the blame goes towards the teams best players, because their "percentages ", would have you think they're worse than options 3 and 4, whose numbers are better.
The 1st and 2nd options when you scout an opponent is to make the team go to their 2nd, then 3rd, then 4th and hopefully the 5th best option....that 4th or 5th best option is usually the measurement of how good your team actually is.....
So when Izzo or Turgeon or any coach scouts RU, you have to start your game plan with RHJ and Baker.....then the 3rd best offensive option, then 4th etc....when fans foolishly judge production on stats and don't account for what a team's coaching staff is designed to "take away", you can be fooled.
As far as Iowa is concerned, they are a "system based" offense that is run with the actual hope of being able to work, all the way down to the 4th and 5th options being able to score....in fact I believe Fran McCaffery actually would rather emphasize his 4th and 5th options being able to score, at the expense of having that 5th option being a defense 1st player, who can stop a Geo Baker or RHJ on the other end of the court.
The Geo can't shoot nonsense is ridiculous.....if you look at his shooting as a frosh, his percentages are better then, vs the next 3 years.....Why....?? Because he was playing along side Corey Sanders, who was a better guard, athlete, defensive player than Baker, but who was charged with carrying a inefficient group on his back for 18 B1G games.....Sanders "stats" as a junior were worse than Bakers as a frosh.....if I looked at just stats, I would think Baker is as good as Sanders.
With Myles and Young, their stats were carried because RHJ and Baker were focus 1 and 2 by opponents, not because they were better.
Why I think RU will be fine without Young and Myles, is because this year's 3rd and 4th options, will move the ball and not turn it over as much.
And why did Mathis end up seemingly with the ball in his hands more than not....?? Was that the defense making the 4th or 5th option beat the opponents game plan, and Mathis couldn't?? Was it a situation, where he just decided he wanted to try and score and failed more, leading to opponents getting easier baskets.....?? It is tough when your 4th or 5th options on offense, doesn't deliver, doesn't make the extra pass and makes your coaching, teamwork and chemistry decline over the course of the season.......
And when that happens, the blame goes towards the teams best players, because their "percentages ", would have you think they're worse than options 3 and 4, whose numbers are better.
Lots of good points here - but Mathis didn’t end up with the ball in his hand at the end of possessions that’s often. He forced a lot of shots early in the shot clock - probably because he wasn’t happy about his PT and wanted to get his.
That's part of "pressing" or the player thinking that was his primary way of contributing BUT it also spoke volumes about whether a shooting guard that was not a true combo guard, is ultimately the right fit in today's basketball.
Mathis was not a primary dribble or ball-handler, where he was asked to bring the ball up the court to initiate the offense and wasn't built to be a playmaker/passer or possessed that skill set. I think what was discovered and why RU probably never reached the right consistency, was Mathis couldn't do that.......Young actually had the capability to be that playmaker much more than he did, but just never had the mindset to be a complete combo guard....he was just a better/quicker version of Mathis.
1.3 OREB lost and.5 assts gone is a 1.8ish knock on points per game. in 70 possessions it is a knock of .026 points per possession. That would take us (looking at bart) from 106.7 to 104.2. That would take us from 55th in adjusted offensive efficiency to 127th. Overall that would move us from 42nd to 61st.
If 1.3 OREB is 1.3 points and.5 assists is 1 point you are talking about an extra 2.3 PPG which is VERY significant.
It means the CEILING impact in a vaccum would be one bucket per game. That assumes zero improvement from Cliff year over year which almost never happens with a BIG from frosh to sophomore year barring injury.
One bucket seems trivial. When we watch a game and a player misses a shot we don't get upset and lose our ****. The difference between Baker shooting 3s at 30% vs. 40% on 150 attempts over a 30 game season is 1.5 points per game. It doesn't seem like a big deal.
looking at bart adjusted points per possession
School offense - defense - differential
1. Gonzaga 1.259 - .909 = .35
10. FSU 1.152 - .931 = .221
25. BYU 1.13 - .94 = .19
42. RU 1.067 - .921 = .146
56 Indiana 1.078 - .948 = .13
77. Northw 1.037 - .941 = 9.6
If we assume 70 possessions
#1 Gonzaga is 24.5 points better than the average D1 team
#10 FSU is 15.47 better than the average team
#25 BYU is 13.3
#42 RU is 10.22
#56 IU is 9.1
#77 NW is 6.7
Those extra 2 points is the difference between a trip to the NCAA and no post season. Baker and Ron shooting 40% from 3 makes us a 14-6 B1G team with a 4 or 5 seed. ALL THINGS EQUAL LAST YEAR.
What looks and seems and feels trivial over the course of a 32+ game season turns out to be very important. The margin is so thin between 7-13 and 13-7 in B1G.
While good defense and offense are equally important to a team’s success, a team’s defensive efficiency tends to be more heavily impacted by the drop off or improvement of the weakest links on the floor over a 40 minute period. Good offensive coaches focus on exploiting match ups that favor them. That doesn’t mean MJ wasn’t important to Rutgers defense, but Rutgers’ defensive Kempom track record under Pike supports this theory and leaves reason for optimism that RU’s defense will be just fine next season.
Pike stepped in and immediately transformed a Kempom ranked 236th defensive team into the 70th ranked defensive. It’s not that we added defensive stand outs but by improving the level of play from the weakest defensive links on the floor (Laurent in particular saw his minutes chopped). By the way - that was Pike’s worst defensive team (his first one). When Geo arrived the next year our defensive efficiency improved to 28th nationally. There was no Myles or Jakob by the way. The following year we saw a drop off in defense down to 46 (probably because we played so many inexperienced frosh and Kiss logged 18 minutes - worst defender of the Pike era which is why he couldn’t play for Pike). Finally the 2 NCAA teams produced elite defenses (6 and 16th ranked).
On the flip side - during the same period, Iowa never once produced a defense with a better rating than 75. Why? Because even last year with a veteran team that was better defensively than previous years (they were stuck with Bohannon as the weak link which limited the extent of improvement).
Please don’t interpret this as my saying that MJ wasn’t important to RU establishing itself as an elite defense. Eugene was important too when he was here. What I’m saying is that how our 4th and 5th best defenders on the floor compare to last year team will probably drive our success or struggles more so than the drop off in the best defenders. Will Paul improve defensively? RHJ? Will Hyatt absorb some of Paul’s PT because he’s a better defender? These are the questions that are most important in my opinion.
Sorry, but I disagree. As shot blocking center that is a very good defensive rebounder has a huge impact. 1 poor defender against most teams can be hidden without a huge impact.
I do think if we get a slight improvement 1 thru 4 individually on defense PLUS Cliff improves we have a chance of being a good defensive team. Length and desire overcomes lack of lateral quickness. Caleb shows this.
I do think if we get a slight improvement 1 thru 4 individually on defense PLUS Cliff improves we have a chance of being a good defensive team. Length and desire overcomes lack of lateral quickness. Caleb shows this.
Year 1 of Pike
he got a buy in from Corey to play defense. Nigel had the skills to be a good defensive player. We ended up being 34th in block percentage. We played 4 bigs (2 at a time) and all were decent shot blockers.
Year 2 of Pike
Mostly the same team with the addition of Baker and the emergence of Eugene. Eugene replaced block shots with drawn charges getting about 1 per game. Mike Williams was important both years. Corey Sanders became a very good defensive player under Pike. A noticable difference between Pike and Eddie.
Year 3 of Pike
Defense slips....maybe Eugene's knee, defintely the loss of Corey, maybe a guy like kiss playing half the game.
Year 4 of Pike
i thought the sky was falling because Eugene left. I felt he was a defensive leader based on his toughness. Myles Johnson becomes a force as a very good defensive rebounder and a shot blocker. We go from #50 on D to #8. Kiss leaves the rotation. We are the best defensive rebounding team of the Pike regime.
Year 5 of Pike
We slip from 8 to 20 overall. We are 16th in block %. Jacob Young emerges as a lockdown defender shutting down a bunch of prolific scorers.
Don't forget, too, that the 3pt line moved back between Geo's sophomore and junior seasons, starting in 2019-20, which impacted shooting percentages for everyone.
Common sense?
Talk about Young and Myles as important pieces on DEFENSE
Baker can't shoot isn't ridiculous. We have a rather large sample size. Do the numbers lie?
Myles and Young stats were carried because of Baker and Harper? So Pike took the ball out of Baker's hands because the defense was so focused on Baker? Common Sense?
When Izzo or Turgeon is looking at RU their primary focus last year was NOT stopping Baker. It was probably the tendencies of Young off the dribble. It was probably about exploiting weakness in the Rutgers defense. Or beating Rutgers in transition when certain guys were in the game. it was probably about getting Myles out of the paint when on offense. Definitely reemphasizing that when Montez has the ball getting help to get to the spot and having the knowledge he isn't passing.
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While the overall point is going in the right direction, Rutgers lost 10 conference games last season, only 1 of which was by less than 6 points (2 pt margin to Iowa). So it isn't like an extra 2 or 3 points in each game was going to make much difference to their W/L record.
Last year, not counting 3 cupcake OOC games......
10 of 25 games were 1 possession games at some point inside of 5 minutes.
We were 6-4 in those games. 4-6 means no NCAA.
Both Minny wins were tied or 1 point games with 1 minute left. Lose both of those games......
10 of 25 games were 1 possession games at some point inside of 5 minutes.
We were 6-4 in those games. 4-6 means no NCAA.
Both Minny wins were tied or 1 point games with 1 minute left. Lose both of those games......
and only 2 of those were losses. It wasn't like they win 5 more games with an extra 3 points. They just have a larger margin of victory in 3 of them and 1 goes to OT, so roughly 1.5 wins total difference.
I'm not saying a little better shooting doesn't help, I'm saying adding 2 or 3 points to your total in each game of the year probably doesn't budge the W/L record much.
But it's not evenly spread. It's an average. Just because we averaged a certain number of points a game doesn't mean we scored that every game.
final margins of games arent always indicative of what the score of the game when there was 1 minute left. Whether you use bartovik or kenpom an incremental 3 points per possession (70 possessions *3 = 2.1 points per game) tacked on or off offensive or defensive efficiency could be the difference between whether a coach gets a contract extension or is fired. Last year it turn Syracuse (net +16.6) in to Seton Hall (net +13.8) OR turns Rutgers (net +14.6) in to Marquette (+11.3)
you don’t say. I was merely replying to a post that was arguing what would have happened if it was evenly spread out.
In reality with better shooting irregularly spread they could have won more (or fewer) extra games.
nowhere did I imply it was not important. Merely looked at actual game results over 2 years and showed what would have happened with an extra made 3 per game.
Final scores don’t say what the score was with 45 seconds left. So many games are decided by 1 possession.
All these things add up…..
A center that OREB or doesn’t
A Guard that doesn’t jump stop and gets a charge (a TO)
A guard shooting 30% from 3
A sf with a small DREB
A center shooting 42% from the line
none are trivial
A center that OREB or doesn’t
A Guard that doesn’t jump stop and gets a charge (a TO)
A guard shooting 30% from 3
A sf with a small DREB
A center shooting 42% from the line
none are trivial
Yet somehow Pike managed to produce a top 50 defense in 4 of his 5 seasons, top 30 in 3 of 5 seasons, and his only miss was in his first year when he inherited a team starting at #236. Even then he clogged in at a remarkable #70 which likely led the nation in improvement. Not too shabby. You don’t just get lucky 5 times. He knows what he’s doing and he hasn’t had a star shot blocker / first team caliber rebounder on all those rosters.
I’m more concerned about scoring droughts on offense. I expect this team to be a better version of the 2018-19 team on both the defensive end and the half court sets. Chop is correct about the shift in the 3 point line - but on a relative basis we won’t shoot worse than that team did (would be pretty hard to do). That teams problem was the long stretches without scoring. JY solved that problem. It’s not the volume of JY’s total ppg that concerns me most, it’s those baskets he would get for us at critical points when the half court game was breaking down - by simply beating everyone to the rim. Who knows - maybe we’re getting some skills like that in one or more of the guys coming in.
I thought the sky fell when Eugene left on the defensive end (only). It certainly didn’t. I think the sky has definitely fallen now. Let me go 0/2
Eugene played a very limited role on his first team, Greene. 236 to 70 improvement…. He contributed more the following year but we still produced a top 30 defense with him on the bench 19+ minutes. The presence of these players on defense isn’t binary either. When these so called stars play in foul trouble there’s a good deal of regression to the mean (if that’s the right term) - what I mean is that MJ’s defense with 4 fouls is quite limited and not that much different from Cliffs.
The baffling thing with the fans is viewing inefficient and random exciting playmaking as irreplaceable but doesn't account for high turnovers as an offset or lack of assists as an offset.
It's also baffling that despite year after year of evidence across all conferences and leagues, how fans fall victim to media hype. It comes down to watching games and does a player on the court make others around them better, or just make individual plays.
Greene every year plays the overly concerned role of stats....even outside the RU talk, 2 to 3 years ago, I mentioned how overrated Wisconsin F Ethan Happ was and how he handcuffed Wisconsin, because every possession ran through Happ. He averaged almost 20 and 10 and he graduated and Wisconsin was picked to fall in the standings. Instead of being reliant on Happ, the production got spread around and Wisconsin bounced back and won the B1G the next year (or after that).
Same silly items with how invaluable Eugene was and again, the player who dominates the ball but doesn't make players around them better, is never a loss....RU loses its scoring and rebounding leader and improved by 7 games in the win column.
Now we are looking at another player who did not make others around him better (Young) with low assists for the amount of usage and high turnovers. Yes, there are steals, but 3 turnovers a game is something I won't miss.
With Myles, Cliff has some of the same strengths, but will be a better offensive player by February and March, if he is healthy. The non-existent mid range offense and toughness missing from last year on the glass, increases again with our offensive rebounding (Agee and Hyatt).......& RHJ is more effective as a 3 vs 4.
Add in Jaden Jones 3 point shooting and he will be a more efficient and better player than Jacob Young......just don't mistake spectacular plays with efficient or effective.
This projects to be way closer to the 2019-20 team on paper, just with more experience and awareness of how to win. This is clearly (based on the different pieces and not having so many players duplicating the same skill-sets) a better team than last year......and that's not even factoring in the FT shooting.
It's also baffling that despite year after year of evidence across all conferences and leagues, how fans fall victim to media hype. It comes down to watching games and does a player on the court make others around them better, or just make individual plays.
Greene every year plays the overly concerned role of stats....even outside the RU talk, 2 to 3 years ago, I mentioned how overrated Wisconsin F Ethan Happ was and how he handcuffed Wisconsin, because every possession ran through Happ. He averaged almost 20 and 10 and he graduated and Wisconsin was picked to fall in the standings. Instead of being reliant on Happ, the production got spread around and Wisconsin bounced back and won the B1G the next year (or after that).
Same silly items with how invaluable Eugene was and again, the player who dominates the ball but doesn't make players around them better, is never a loss....RU loses its scoring and rebounding leader and improved by 7 games in the win column.
Now we are looking at another player who did not make others around him better (Young) with low assists for the amount of usage and high turnovers. Yes, there are steals, but 3 turnovers a game is something I won't miss.
With Myles, Cliff has some of the same strengths, but will be a better offensive player by February and March, if he is healthy. The non-existent mid range offense and toughness missing from last year on the glass, increases again with our offensive rebounding (Agee and Hyatt).......& RHJ is more effective as a 3 vs 4.
Add in Jaden Jones 3 point shooting and he will be a more efficient and better player than Jacob Young......just don't mistake spectacular plays with efficient or effective.
This projects to be way closer to the 2019-20 team on paper, just with more experience and awareness of how to win. This is clearly (based on the different pieces and not having so many players duplicating the same skill-sets) a better team than last year......and that's not even factoring in the FT shooting.