Rutgers is projected first team out

[RUsojo]

Then I got it wrong

I only remember because I did extensive research on games starting when McConnell came back, which was that Iowa game.

My first thought was playing the freshman in that game really hurt us too, so my buddy rewatched the game and double checked the box scores after and in that game we did fine when the freshman played but bad when McConnell played. IIRC he played 11 minutes in 0-5 shooting or something like that.

 

[RUChoppin]

Not sure. Duke played 1 minute. Reiber played 10 minutes which surely overlapped with the 5 minutes that Garza sat for. I highly doubt Garza scored 25 points during the other 6 minutes either of them was on the floor, but sure, it could be possible - Dean was a raw frosh playing against a star.

My argument that Iowa would’ve struggled without Garza assumed that Iowa would be playing against the same exact competition without him though. So MJ would’ve been there. There is no chance at all Iowa wins that game without Garza.

Iowa also lost Connor McCaffery and his 3.6:1 assist/turnover ratio 3 minutes into that game, so removing Garza as well would have had them down 2 starters. Also of note, Reiber played a strong 10 minutes of defense on Garza, but also picked up 4 fouls.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Iowa also lost Connor McCaffery and his 3.6:1 assist/turnover ratio 3 minutes into that game, so removing Garza as well would have had them down 2 starters. Also of note, Reiber played a strong 10 minutes of defense on Garza, but also picked up 4 fouls.

You wonder if Frederick and Nunge would still be at Iowa if 2 of the coach’s sons were in the team. I could see that being a weird dynamic

 

[MADHAT1]

Actually I feel RU is better than first 4 out.
Without Geo & RHJ, it would be.
The transfers coming in Hyatt and Agree bring valuable experience to the front court
Hyatt his one year at LSU and Agree's 4 year college career will help the soph Cliff, Oscar and Mawot Mag develop a RU team that can hang with the best in the B1G

I feel the first 4 out was because of losing Myles and Young, but didn't calculate the depth of the frontcopurt with the transfers and experience gained by the sophs, along with Paul, Calab gaining needed experience and the additions of Jaden & Jalen for backcourt depth.

 

[shields]

Nunge left I read he needed to be closer to home.

 

[Knights 1212]

I don't really care now about last season. All I know is that Iowa has lost Garza, Weiskamp, Frederick and Nagel. That is more firepower than RU has lost going into this season yet Iowa and Wisconsin are both getting more respect than RU is getting. I like the idea of RU proving people wrong once again.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don't really care now about last season. All I know is that Iowa has lost Garza, Weiskamp, Frederick and Nagel. That is more firepower than RU has lost going into this season yet Iowa and Wisconsin are both getting more respect than RU is getting. I like the idea of RU proving people wrong once again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Browning_Nagle

 

[RUChoppin]

Really not sure how Iowa is projected so high. From what I understand, their roster is going to be (sorted by minutes played last season)

905 - Jordan Bohannon, Sr (31 starts)
827 - Filip Rebraca, Jr (26 starts at North Dakota)
706 - Connor McCaffery, Jr (31 starts)
558 - Keegan Murray, Fr (4 starts)
452 - Pat McCaffery, Fr
350 - Joe Toussaint, So
147 - Tony Perkins, Fr
119 - Ahron Ullis, Fr
42 - Kris Murray, Fr
21 - Austin Ash, Jr (former walkon)
17 - Josh Ogundele, Fr
0 - Payton Sandfort, Incoming Fr
0 - Riley Mulvey, Incoming Fr

Edit: Added in Bohannon, didn't think he was returning.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It will be a different team. Joe Touissaint didn’t fit in to Iowa 2020-21 but I can see him being a good point guard. I thought Joran (left the D out on purpose) Bohannon was coming back. Keegan Murray is going to be good and the younger McCaffrey allegedly is good.

https://www.barttorvik.com/rosters22.php?team=Iowa&year=2022

 

[RUChoppin]

It will be a different team. Joe Touissaint didn’t fit in to Iowa 2020-21 but I can see him being a good point guard. I thought Joran (left the D out on purpose) Bohannon was coming back. Keegan Murray is going to be good and the younger McCaffrey allegedly is good.

https://www.barttorvik.com/rosters22.php?team=Iowa&year=2022

Didn't realize Bohannon was returning - that's at least a bit more returning stability.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I only remember because I did extensive research on games starting when McConnell came back, which was that Iowa game.

My first thought was playing the freshman in that game really hurt us too, so my buddy rewatched the game and double checked the box scores after and in that game we did fine when the freshman played but bad when McConnell played. IIRC he played 11 minutes in 0-5 shooting or something like that.

How did you not remember that? You probably brought it up 50 times during the season. It was Caleb’s first game back. His +/- improved drastically following that game. By the end of the season he was one of the most important defensive players on the team.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It will be a different team. Joe Touissaint didn’t fit in to Iowa 2020-21 but I can see him being a good point guard. I thought Joran (left the D out on purpose) Bohannon was coming back. Keegan Murray is going to be good and the younger McCaffrey allegedly is good.

https://www.barttorvik.com/rosters22.php?team=Iowa&year=2022

It’ll be a guard heavy team without any proven major conference stars. Lots of question marks - especially in the front court. Who is backing up the North Dakota transfer for them at the 5?

 

[RUsojo]

How did you not remember that? You probably brought it up 50 times during the season. It was Caleb’s first game back. His +/- improved drastically following that game. By the end of the season he was one of the most important defensive players on the team.

I literally said “I only remember that because…”.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I literally said “I only remember that because…”.

Yeah but in the same post you said at first you too thought it was the frosh. Just saying. You spent months arguing that the team was perfect without Caleb with that game as the focal point.

 

[RUsojo]

Yeah but in the same post you said at first you too thought it was the frosh. Just saying. You spent months arguing that the team was perfect without Caleb with that game as the focal point.

I guess it may have been difficult in this recent post to understand the sequence based on the syntax but “at first I thought it was the frosh” was referring to way back when I first analyzed it.

 

[MLBash93]

Good thing its rightfully at home at the RA.....

Oh wait thats right I forgot that they're a bunch crybaby chicken sh*ts who whined their way into a home game they don't deserve

I mean, I don't blame them. It is an important game for all parties and for them it made sense

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Really not sure how Iowa is projected so high. From what I understand, their roster is going to be (sorted by minutes played last season)

905 - Jordan Bohannon, Sr (31 starts)
827 - Filip Rebraca, Jr (26 starts at North Dakota)
706 - Connor McCaffery, Jr (31 starts)
558 - Keegan Murray, Fr (4 starts)
452 - Pat McCaffery, Fr
350 - Joe Toussaint, So
147 - Tony Perkins, Fr
119 - Ahron Ullis, Fr
42 - Kris Murray, Fr
21 - Austin Ash, Jr (former walkon)
17 - Josh Ogundele, Fr
0 - Payton Sandfort, Incoming Fr
0 - Riley Mulvey, Incoming Fr

Edit: Added in Bohannon, didn't think he was returning.

Is there any one for one trade that you’d honestly make for Geo, Harper or Cliff from this roster that would make RU a better team. My answer is a definitive no.

Not looking to start a debate about Bohannon’s offensive efficiency numbers vs. Geo. Anyone who thinks that trade would help RU hasn’t watched Bohannon play defense. And no, Geo isn’t some great defender but he’s a stud compared to Bohannon on the defensive end. Bohannon wouldn’t help Rutgers.

 

[RUChoppin]

Is there any one for one trade that you’d honestly make for Geo, Harper or Cliff from this roster that would make RU a better team. My answer is a definitive no.

Not looking to start a debate about Bohannon’s offensive efficiency numbers vs. Geo. Anyone who thinks that trade would help RU hasn’t watched Bohannon play defense. And no, Geo isn’t some great defender but he’s a stud compared to Bohannon on the defensive end. Bohannon wouldn’t help Rutgers.

Nope. That roster seems sketchy, tbh, with a thousand question marks - not sure why that bracket expects them to finish ahead of us. Bart has them a bit behind us, fwiw.

Fran is surely scouring his house for more eligible kids named McCaffery.

We get them at home only this year, and right now I have this penciled as a W.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Is there any one for one trade that you’d honestly make for Geo, Harper or Cliff from this roster that would make RU a better team. My answer is a definitive no.

Not looking to start a debate about Bohannon’s offensive efficiency numbers vs. Geo. Anyone who thinks that trade would help RU hasn’t watched Bohannon play defense. And no, Geo isn’t some great defender but he’s a stud compared to Bohannon on the defensive end. Bohannon wouldn’t help Rutgers.

Absolutely.....Keegan Murray in a heart beat over Geo. Would do it in like 2 seconds.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Is there any one for one trade that you’d honestly make for Geo, Harper or Cliff from this roster that would make RU a better team. My answer is a definitive no.

Not looking to start a debate about Bohannon’s offensive efficiency numbers vs. Geo. Anyone who thinks that trade would help RU hasn’t watched Bohannon play defense. And no, Geo isn’t some great defender but he’s a stud compared to Bohannon on the defensive end. Bohannon wouldn’t help Rutgers.

It is about Iowa's top 8 guys vs. our Top 8. I really don't have a gauge on McCaffrey brothers. Everytime I watched them i admit I didn't get it. The younger one was a big name recruit. I like Joe Toussaint a lot. On paper, in a crap league, Rebarca looks good loads better than Agee. Agee is expected to play 15 and I am guessing Rebarca is supposed to be Garza Jr.

In the limited info I have on Iowa and my knowledge on RU gun to my head Iowa finishes ahead of RU in the B1G standings.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Absolutely.....Keegan Murray in a heart beat over Geo. Would do it in like 2 seconds.

Your selling super senior Geo down the river here based on the efficiency numbers of a role playing forward who played along side Garza and Wiescamp. It’s impossible to know how good Murray will be based on last season. We’re also very deep already at stretch wing / forward. Geo gives us nice depth at guard.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It is about Iowa's top 8 guys vs. our Top 8. I really don't have a gauge on McCaffrey brothers. Everytime I watched them i admit I didn't get it. The younger one was a big name recruit. I like Joe Toussaint a lot. On paper, in a crap league, Rebarca looks good loads better than Agee. Agee is expected to play 15 and I am guessing Rebarca is supposed to be Garza Jr.

In the limited info I have on Iowa and my knowledge on RU gun to my head Iowa finishes ahead of RU in the B1G standings.

If you look at top 8 down the line then it just seems to make the argument for Iowa being better than RU worse - a lot worse. Unless an unknown player develops for them and not for us. Let’s go down the line:

1) They have no proven stars of RHJ caliber or even close to it. I know you like Murray’s game but absolutely nobody would take Murray over RHJ in fantasy league - do you agree? He’s the clear match up comparative (lining up the 3/4 positions). Choice - RU

2) Nobody would take Iowa’s ND transfer over Cliff either (starting 5 comparison). Choice - RU

3) I already explained why picking Bohannon over Geo would be nuts. Bohannon might be the worst defensive starting guard in the league. He’s that bad and at 6-4 vs 6-1, Geo is also a better fit to slide over to the 2. (Starting PG / 2 comparison). Choice -RU

4) I personally would not take Touissant over Caleb - both are defensive players but I think Caleb is more versatile. It’s certainly not a given in Touissant’s favor though. Comparison 2/3 position. Let’s call this one a draw.

5) The same thing with PM vs Connor McCaffery since Connor might be a better defender (Paul’s the better offensive player). Another draw.

6) I’d choose Hyatt over what I saw of the other McCaffery right now but that doesn’t mean either won’t develop. Willing to call this one another draw.

7) Agee is, I believe, the only other player for either team with meaningful (non garbage time) D1 experience. No clue who projects as Iowa’s back up 5 (so the preseason pick has to be RU). Choice - RU

8) The field. Not sure how you can assume Iowa’s newcomers and prior bench scrubs will outperform or underperform Jones, Miller, Mag, Dean, Oscar, etc. jury is still out. draw.

let me know your tweaks. I’m curious why you expect Iowa to have a better rotation of 8.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Your selling super senior Geo down the river here based on the efficiency numbers of a role playing forward who played along side Garza and Wiescamp. It’s impossible to know how good Murray will be based on last season. We’re also very deep already at stretch wing / forward. Geo gives us nice depth at guard.

You are correct. I don't think highly of Geo in the 1st 39 minutes of basketball games. My hope is that his injury was a big reason he was bad on both sides last year. We have a 4 year sample size of a guy that isn't a good shooter.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If you look at top 8 down the line then it just seems to make the argument for Iowa being better than RU worse - a lot worse. Unless an unknown player develops for them and not for us. Let’s go down the line:

1) They have no proven stars of RHJ caliber or even close to it. I know you like Murray’s game but absolutely nobody would take Murray over RHJ in fantasy league - do you agree? He’s the clear match up comparative (lining up the 3/4 positions). Choice - RU

2) Nobody would take Iowa’s ND transfer over Cliff either (starting 5 comparison). Choice - RU

3) I already explained why picking Bohannon over Geo would be nuts. Bohannon might be the worst defensive starting guard in the league. He’s that bad and at 6-4 vs 6-1, Geo is also a better fit to slide over to the 2. (Starting PG / 2 comparison). Choice -RU

4) I personally would not take Touissant over Caleb - both are defensive players but I think Caleb is more versatile. It’s certainly not a given in Touissant’s favor though. Comparison 2/3 position. Let’s call this one a draw.

5) The same thing with PM vs Connor McCaffery since Connor might be a better defender (Paul’s the better offensive player). Another draw.

6) I’d choose Hyatt over what I saw of the other McCaffery right now but that doesn’t mean either won’t develop. Willing to call this one another draw.

7) Agee is, I believe, the only other player for either team with meaningful (non garbage time) D1 experience. No clue who projects as Iowa’s back up 5 (so the preseason pick has to be RU). Choice - RU

8) The field. Not sure how you can assume Iowa’s newcomers and prior bench scrubs will outperform or underperform Jones, Miller, Mag, Dean, Oscar, etc. jury is still out. draw.

let me know your tweaks. I’m curious why you expect Iowa to have a better rotation of 8.

1. correct
2. correct
3. agree. Joran Bohannon is a terrible defender. Geo is only below average ,but he has length
4. it comes down to Touissaint upside and if Caleb shoots it better this year. I think he will
5. Love paul's in tangibles.....I'll stop there.
6. hoenstly no idea here. I am hoping Hyatt is one of our best 3 or 4 players
7. Agee....numbers look rotten, but I'll trust Pike here
8. agree

I am not in love with a player that wasnt fully engaged last year coming back for a 5th year. Last year we leaned heavily on Myles and Jacob and they are gone. I just done know if we are going to be a good offensive or defensive team. Admittedly my glass is always half empty.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

1. correct
2. correct
3. agree. Joran Bohannon is a terrible defender. Geo is only below average ,but he has length
4. it comes down to Touissaint upside and if Caleb shoots it better this year. I think he will
5. Love paul's in tangibles.....I'll stop there.
6. hoenstly no idea here. I am hoping Hyatt is one of our best 3 or 4 players
7. Agee....numbers look rotten, but I'll trust Pike here
8. agree

I am not in love with a player that wasnt fully engaged last year coming back for a 5th year. Last year we leaned heavily on Myles and Jacob and they are gone. I just done know if we are going to be a good offensive or defensive team. Admittedly my glass is always half empty.

Half empty? More like backloaded with trash

I mean - you just said with a gun to your head you’d pick Iowa to be better than us despite running through each team’s returning top 8 and acknowledging that there’s not one returning position player you’d swap them for. Ouch

 

[RUsojo]

1. correct
2. correct
3. agree. Joran Bohannon is a terrible defender. Geo is only below average ,but he has length
4. it comes down to Touissaint upside and if Caleb shoots it better this year. I think he will
5. Love paul's in tangibles.....I'll stop there.
6. hoenstly no idea here. I am hoping Hyatt is one of our best 3 or 4 players
7. Agee....numbers look rotten, but I'll trust Pike here
8. agree

I am not in love with a player that wasnt fully engaged last year coming back for a 5th year. Last year we leaned heavily on Myles and Jacob and they are gone. I just done know if we are going to be a good offensive or defensive team. Admittedly my glass is always half empty.

Good points. Ultimately I think Iowa and RU comes down to us bring a defensive oriented team that doesn’t have many good individual defenders vs Iowa being an offensive team with some better athletes/shooters.

Tough call both are middle of the pack teams. If Jaden Jones can break that top 8 and be a scorer for us, which isn’t far fetched but not guaranteed, I think it would go a long way to giving RU an edge.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Good points. Ultimately I think Iowa and RU comes down to us bring a defensive oriented team that doesn’t have many good individual defenders vs Iowa being an offensive team with some better athletes/shooters.

Tough call both are middle of the pack teams. If Jaden Jones can break that top 8 and be a scorer for us, which isn’t far fetched but not guaranteed, I think it would go a long way to giving RU an edge.

What makes Iowa a good offensive team? Good shooting team? Bohannon? Let’s see what his numbers look like without Wiescamp drawing the attention in the backcourt and a guy like Garza to contend with. They have no other returning shooters.

Murray isn’t a good shooter by the way. 29.6% from 3. His efficiency numbers are ballooned by open high percentage looks made possible via focus on Garza.

 

[RUChoppin]

What makes Iowa a good offensive team? Good shooting team?

They were last year, but I don't know if that will carry over. I'd expect a dropoff.

Last season (full team):
47.1% FG, 52.7% 2P, 38.6% 3P, 83.7 pts/game

Last season (returning players):
41.6% FG, 48.8% 2P, 33.7% 3P, 33.1 pts/game

The guys that were driving Iowa's offense last year (Garza, Weiskamp, and Fredrick) are gone - remains to be seen what the new-look Hawkeyes are going to bring offensively.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Half empty? More like backloaded with trash

I mean - you just said with a gun to your head you’d pick Iowa to be better than us despite running through each team’s returning top 8 and acknowledging that there’s not one returning position player you’d swap them for. Ouch

I am worried about offense and defense. I honestly have doubts about Baker and Harper as leaders and as players. Sorry. I hope i am wrong.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Most of us weren't thrilled with Jacob running the show on offense. We obviously liked when he beat his guy off the dribble and scored. Earlier in the year Pike benched Young because he wasn't seeing open people and making bad decisions. Despite this by the end of the year his usage numbers were huge and the ball was in his hands despite having Geo and Ron. The offense wasn't working with the ball in geo's hands.

Jacob's usage #s since Jan 5

42 27 31 31 24 32 31 42 22 38 27 34 26 26 22 30 26 31 15 24

That is a hair under 30% on average. Luka was the only B1G player above 30% for the year.

I find it pretty damning that we had 2 stars in Baker and Harper yet Pikiell thought the better option was to have the ball in Young's hands.

 

[dpwhite]

Most of us weren't thrilled with Jacob running the show on offense. We obviously liked when he beat his guy off the dribble and scored. Earlier in the year Pike benched Young because he wasn't seeing open people and making bad decisions. Despite this by the end of the year his usage numbers were huge and the ball was in his hands despite having Geo and Ron. The offense wasn't working with the ball in geo's hands.

Jacob's usage #s since Jan 5

42 27 31 31 24 32 31 42 22 38 27 34 26 26 22 30 26 31 15 24

That is a hair under 30% on average. Luka was the only B1G player above 30% for the year.

I find it pretty damning that we had 2 stars in Baker and Harper yet Pikiell thought the better option was to have the ball in Young's hands.

In yesterday's Scarlet Spotlight, Geo said he had COVID in September and some knee issues and wasn't able to practice with the team for two months. Then right before the opener, he twisted his ankle. Then he twisted his other ankle in the opener. Then he retwisted his ankle against Michigan State. He said he basically wasn't healthy nearly all season. Hopefully, a healthy year will help him.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In yesterday's Scarlet Spotlight, Geo said he had COVID in September and some knee issues and wasn't able to practice with the team for two months. Then right before the opener, he twisted his ankle. Then he twisted his other ankle in the opener. Then he retwisted his ankle against Michigan State. He said he basically wasn't healthy nearly all season. Hopefully, a healthy year will help him.

That is what I am hoping for.

 

[RUChoppin]

Most of us weren't thrilled with Jacob running the show on offense. We obviously liked when he beat his guy off the dribble and scored. Earlier in the year Pike benched Young because he wasn't seeing open people and making bad decisions. Despite this by the end of the year his usage numbers were huge and the ball was in his hands despite having Geo and Ron. The offense wasn't working with the ball in geo's hands.

Jacob's usage #s since Jan 5

42 27 31 31 24 32 31 42 22 38 27 34 26 26 22 30 26 31 15 24

That is a hair under 30% on average. Luka was the only B1G player above 30% for the year.

I find it pretty damning that we had 2 stars in Baker and Harper yet Pikiell thought the better option was to have the ball in Young's hands.

I've never really liked usage rate as a metric, for a couple of reasons.

First, it doesn't really count "usage" during the game - it's a measure of how many times while a player was on the floor that a possession ended with the ball leaving that player's hands. You can have a player who has the ball in their hands more and runs the offense, but has a lower usage rate than one who has it in their hands less.

Second, it's higher for players who take more shots (not make more shots, just take more shots) and have more turnovers (without regard to assists).

It skews toward volume shooters and turnover machines.

Mathis had the second highest usage among our rotation behind Young.... was he really used twice as much as Mulcahy, with just 593 minutes to 763 respectively? Or did he just drive into the trees more often and miss more threes?

If Jacob Young had the same ast/tov ratio as Geo Baker, his usage rate would drop from 27.3 to 25.4

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I've never really liked usage rate as a metric, for a couple of reasons.

First, it doesn't really count "usage" during the game - it's a measure of how many times while a player was on the floor that a possession ended with the ball leaving that player's hands. You can have a player who has the ball in their hands more and runs the offense, but has a lower usage rate than one who has it in their hands less.

Second, it's higher for players who take more shots (not make more shots, just take more shots) and have more turnovers (without regard to assists).

It skews toward volume shooters and turnover machines.

Mathis had the second highest usage among our rotation behind Young.... was he really used twice as much as Mulcahy, with just 593 minutes to 763 respectively? Or did he just drive into the trees more often and miss more threes?

If Jacob Young had the same ast/tov ratio as Geo Baker, his usage rate would drop from 27.3 to 25.4

But Young turned it over a bunch which is a sign the ball was in his hands.

I do agree with you though.

Yikes 3.4 APG 3.0 TO per game.

 

[RUChoppin]

But Young turned it over a bunch which is a sign the ball was in his hands.

I do agree with you though.

Yikes 3.4 APG 3.0 TO per game.

It's a sign the ball *ended* in his hands.

Scenario: Baker brings up the ball against pressure, crosses the midline and passes it to Johnson at the top of the arc, who fakes a handoff to Harper then hands it off to Mulcahy, who penetrates to draw a double team and whips the ball to the corner for Young, who loses it out of bounds on a drive to rim. The only person who was "used" in that play was Young, according to "usage rate".... and he may have had it in his hands for just 1-2 seconds of the shot clock.

Scenario: Mulcahy brings up the ball, and passes it to Harper on the wing. Harper backs in toward the lane but draws a double, kicking it back out to Mulcahy, who gives it over to Baker. Baker penetrates to the elbow drawing the defense, and kicks to Mathis who bricks a three on a catch-and-shoot. Only Mathis was "used" on that play, and had the ball in his hands less than a second.

Scenario: Young brings up the ball fighting against pressure, probing the defense, not finding an opening, backing back to the line, then again aggressively penetrating to the hoop and drawing the shot blocker..... only to give a last second pass underneath to Johnson, who jams it home. Only person who got "used" on that was Johnson, even though Young had the ball in his hands nearly the entire possession.

I just think "usage" is not the right word for that. It's not about who has the ball in their hands, but who ends with the ball on each possession - either with a make, a miss, or a turnover.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It's a sign the ball *ended* in his hands.

Scenario: Baker brings up the ball against pressure, crosses the midline and passes it to Johnson at the top of the arc, who fakes a handoff to Harper then hands it off to Mulcahy, who penetrates to draw a double team and whips the ball to the corner for Young, who loses it out of bounds on a drive to rim. The only person who was "used" in that play was Young, according to "usage rate".... and he may have had it in his hands for just 1-2 seconds of the shot clock.

Scenario: Mulcahy brings up the ball, and passes it to Harper on the wing. Harper backs in toward the lane but draws a double, kicking it back out to Mulcahy, who gives it over to Baker. Baker penetrates to the elbow drawing the defense, and kicks to Mathis who bricks a three on a catch-and-shoot. Only Mathis was "used" on that play, and had the ball in his hands less than a second.

Scenario: Young brings up the ball fighting against pressure, probing the defense, not finding an opening, backing back to the line, then again aggressively penetrating to the hoop and drawing the shot blocker..... only to give a last second pass underneath to Johnson, who jams it home. Only person who got "used" on that was Johnson, even though Young had the ball in his hands nearly the entire possession.

I just think "usage" is not the right word for that. It's not about who has the ball in their hands, but who ends with the ball on each possession - either with a make, a miss, or a turnover.

The usage of the word usage may be bad. It sort of shows what % of the time the player dictates the outcome of the possession.

Bottom line the ball stuck in Young hands a ton towards the end of the year. More to my and most people's liking. the usage stat of 30% sort of reflects that in a backdoor or front door sort of way,

The usage #s do a good job of pegging Paul or Issa's role in the offense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

wow usage doesn't count assists...

100*((Player’s Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Player’s Free Throw Attempts)+(Player’s Turnovers))*(Team’s Total Minutes)
/
((Team’s Total Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Team’s Total Free Throw Attempts)+Team’s Total Turnovers))*5*(Player’s Minutes)

 

[kcg88]

Yeah, stats can be misleading. Rutgers was 4th-best in the Big Ten in turnover rate. But that doesn't include someone driving to the rim and chucking up a prayer that the defense easily rebounds, and the two players most responsible for that (Mathis and Young) are gone. So our recorded turnover rate may be worse next season, but the actual rate that we give the ball to the other team may not be.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yeah, stats can be misleading. Rutgers was 4th-best in the Big Ten in turnover rate. But that doesn't include someone driving to the rim and chucking up a prayer that the defense easily rebounds, and the two players most responsible for that (Mathis and Young) are gone. So our recorded turnover rate may be worse next season, but the actual rate that we give the ball to the other team may not be.

......and defense has 5 on 4 the other way because a RU player in laying on his back

 

[RUChoppin]

wow usage doesn't count assists...

100*((Player’s Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Player’s Free Throw Attempts)+(Player’s Turnovers))*(Team’s Total Minutes)
/
((Team’s Total Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Team’s Total Free Throw Attempts)+Team’s Total Turnovers))*5*(Player’s Minutes)

Right, because an assist means someone else finished the possession with the ball in their hands. You don't get any credit for alley-oops, or drawing defenders and feeding the open man, etc. But you do get credit for dribbling off your foot and getting rejected after driving into the trees.

It's a metric to be taken with a cartload of salt. Not useless, but also not really showing how much "use" a player gets within the flow of the offense, or how important it is for them to be on the floor.