NCAA and Corona Virus

jersey07080

All-Conference
Dec 17, 2005
7,074
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Had tickets for some Pearl jam shows at the end of the month and they were all just postponed. Looking like large gatherings in the US will start to be shut down.
 
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knight82

All-American
Nov 4, 2002
8,496
9,109
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I was reading an article in the New York Times that the NCAA is exploring their options. Thankfully cancelling the tournament does not seem to be an option and playing without fans is something they would like to avoid at all costs. It seems like increased "health stations" including providing hand sanitizers and other disinfectants to fans is something they are discussing.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,217
44,292
113
I was reading an article in the New York Times that the NCAA is exploring their options. Thankfully cancelling the tournament does not seem to be an option and playing without fans is something they would like to avoid at all costs. It seems like increased "health stations" including providing hand sanitizers and other disinfectants to fans is something they are discussing.
As I've been saying, will be surprised if they allow fans into the games, given that almost every first round location already has at least one case of coronavirus, especially since by next Tuesday we should expect to see 5000+ cases in the US. And at some point, student-athlete safety will trump everything and they might even postpone. And the regionals? Let's see what the NBA/NHL do in LA/NY now that both areas are poised to see steep accelerations in cases - they have 19/14 now and should have 500+, each by the time of the regionals. This sucks balls.
 

rutgersfan1766

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2005
2,629
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As I've been saying, will be surprised if they allow fans into the games, given that almost every first round location already has at least one case of coronavirus, especially since by next Tuesday we should expect to see 5000+ cases in the US. And at some point, student-athlete safety will trump everything and they might even postpone. And the regionals? Let's see what the NBA/NHL do in LA/NY now that both areas are poised to see steep accelerations in cases - they have 19/14 now and should have 500+, each by the time of the regionals. This sucks balls.

Talk about paranoia. Yikes.
 
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ru66

All-American
Jul 28, 2001
12,175
6,257
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hell--there are tons of tournaments now ongoing-why stop now?--exposure is ongoing anyway
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,935
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hell--there are tons of tournaments now ongoing-why stop now?--exposure is ongoing anyway


very true. we have conference tourneys this week in which some locations will be just as packed. Is it going to be different in 4 days. The NCAA guy was on CBS Sunday saying everything is going on as scheduled including fans.
 

rutgersfan1766

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2005
2,629
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Have you seen what's going on in Italy? It's not paranoia, just simple comparison of where we are vs. where they were and extrapolating a bit.

I don't live in Italy. I live in the United States.

We've survived many other flus and viruses in the last decade or so, and this will be no different.
 
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DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,818
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I don't live in Italy. I live in the United States.

We've survived many other flus and viruses in the last decade or so, and this will be no different.

Don't let a good panic get in the way of a good panic. This thing could get real serious. Most folks and media have already written the last chapter. Thank God I live 5 mins from where Will Smith filmed his final scene from " I am Ledgend".
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,217
44,292
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I don't live in Italy. I live in the United States.

We've survived many other flus and viruses in the last decade or so, and this will be no different.

You have no clue what's coming then. We're tracking along at a similar trajectory as Italy and it's very likely that densely populated areas of the US will be under some sort of quarantine within 1-2 weeks with thousands of new cases of the coronavirus. Only by aggressive testing, social distancing, quarantining and treatment will we keep this from becoming significantly worse than any flu year - and there's no reason we shouldn't be able to do this, but we're not off to a great start, especially with the CDC testing debacle.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...in-n-italy-3-7-mortality-rate-1.191275/page-6

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/...show&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,217
44,292
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Look up "Farr's Law" to gain some prospective on how viruses peak and fall. The media fails to mention this because it runs counter to the hype.
Quite familiar with it, but the shape of the curve depends greatly on inherent transmission rates vs. actual transmission rates post-interventions, so if we do little to nothing the peak is far broader/longer, vs. if we are aggressive in testing/quarantine/social distancing to reduce the transmission rate, which is inherently much greater than the flu. It's precisely because of the greater mortality rate and transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 that serious actions are required to prevent this being much worse than the flu and I'm confident they will be taken, but am worried about how well we execute those.

But even though I think we'll get through this without it being more deadly, overall, than the flu, due to the interventions we'll implement, in the short term, we're on that fast accelerating part of the curve where infection rates are going up very quickly, which is going to lead to lots of panic and very aggressive responses, including quarantines, like in Italy and this will likely be peaking during the tournament, which is why I could see either postponement or not having fans "out of an abundance of caution." We'll see soon. I hope I'm wrong, as I've been waiting 29 years for this, like many folks around here.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,935
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Ive seen some doctors on tonight who seemed to indicate we should slow the panic
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,217
44,292
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Ive seen some doctors on tonight who seemed to indicate we should slow the panic
Biggest thing we need to do is start testing like crazy, like South Korea did. It's been key to their lower mortality rate (since identiying people early slows the spread and leads to better treatment outcomes and it also leads to a larger denominator, making the mortality rate less) than anywhere else and likely part of why their rate of new cases is starting to decline whille other countries with similar numbers of infections (Italy/Iran) are still seeing accelerations. Unfortunately, our society is pretty reactive so I doubt there's much we can do to slow the panic and the panic/fear is what will eventually lead people to act to reduce transmission rates.
 
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Myrtleknight

Senior
Mar 25, 2006
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Numbers we know that this is unknown but many are hopeful for a summer slow down of transmission rates. What is the general long term weather forecast trending.
 
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jersey07080

All-Conference
Dec 17, 2005
7,074
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Pearl jam also credited to this to the amount of fans that travel to their shows from all over. Did not want to risk anything especially with how this has hit the Seattle area. I don't know what to think now. I was never buying into the hype but when it's effecting things I have done for 20 years( Travel to Pearl jam shows, well not the NCAAs) I guess it hits home.
 

Rhuarc

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
6,477
7,013
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Pearl jam also credited to this to the amount of fans that travel to their shows from all over. Did not want to risk anything especially with how this has hit the Seattle area. I don't know what to think now. I was never buying into the hype but when it's effecting things I have done for 20 years( Travel to Pearl jam shows, well not the NCAAs) I guess it hits home.
I believe insurance companies are changing their policies about covering these shows and its causing the performers to need to cancel as well.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,204
12,358
82
To the best of my knowledge:

TV Rights, $900M/year = fixed and comes in regardless of spectators
Ticket Sales, Concessions, Parking, Merchandise, ~$200-250M/year = variable and only comes in with spectators

TV rights is a bigger number but they get it regardless so it’s irrelevant. Losing 20% of revenue from the other items is what they’ll be weighing.
No fans hurts the local economy, not NCAA.
 
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brad1218

Senior
May 4, 2003
8,765
823
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Why aren’t they shutting things down for the big ten tournament? One more week makes all the difference? I would be shocked if they went without fans.
 

Sweet Pea's Corner

All-American
Sep 10, 2001
17,834
5,690
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Lets stop all airline travel also lol. I just heard about the plane to Newark that was diverted after a group of passengers complained about a guy who was sneezing. They were eventually taken off the plane and the guy only suffered from allergies. This whole click bait uproar would make for a good Twilight Zone episode.
 
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bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
247,935
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Tell that to the 25 people that are dead in the US.

I am sure more than that have also died from the flu this week...and yes i know that Corona is worse than the flu so im not repeating a talking point...just sayin
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,350
12,657
78
Tell that to the 25 people that are dead in the US.

Point understood, but the unique characteristic of Corona is that at some point the volume of cases could force a shift in focus to go in the direction of quarantining the at risk population (rather than the general population) to try to ride this thing out. Weeks ago that sounded crazy and cruel - (i.e. to quarantine frail elderly and people with severe preexisting medical conditions prone to extreme cases). But if it turns out to be accurate that most Corona cases in healthy adults and kids are either asymptomatic or present as a mild cough, then what they are trying to do by shutting everything down simply won’t to work. They can’t shut schools, subways, etc. down forever. If kids carry this thing and continue to barely get symptoms, it’s going to come down to the frail grandparent population needing to stay away from their families anyway for their own safety. I’m not sure what the answer is, but if it turns out kids are the rampant carriers of this thing, shutting down major events isn’t going to do much to solve things. Life would literally either have to stop for an extended period of time or at some point, this thing may need to just run its course through the general population like the common cold? The problem is that the experts seem to not have any answers about who the biggest spreaders, how long it’s contagious, what might cause individuals outside the high risk population to come down with a severe case, etc. nobody knows anything.
 
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Apr 8, 2002
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I am sure more than that have also died from the flu this week...and yes i know that Corona is worse than the flu so im not repeating a talking point...just sayin
I've read the CDC has reported 18,000 deaths from the flu during the same time period as the Corona virus. We are talking 3 dozen deaths compared to 18,000 in this country. I wish the media stop treating the public like idiots. Just give us the facts and let the public form it's own opinions.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,204
12,358
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Point understood, but the unique characteristic of Corona is that at some point the volume of cases could force a shift in focus to go in the direction of quarantining the at risk population (rather than the general population) to try to ride this thing out. Weeks ago that sounded crazy and cruel - (i.e. to quarantine frail elderly and people with severe preexisting medical conditions prone to extreme cases). But if it turns out to be accurate that most Corona cases in healthy adults and kids are either asymptomatic or present as a mild cough, then what they are trying to do by shutting everything down simply won’t to work. They can’t shut schools, subways, etc. down forever. If kids carry this thing and continue to barely get symptoms, it’s going to come down to the frail grandparent population needing to stay away from their families anyway for their own safety. I’m not sure what the answer is, but if it turns out kids are the rampant carriers of this thing, shutting down major events isn’t going to do much to solve things. Life would literally either have to stop for an extended period of time or at some point, this thing may need to just run its course through the general population like the common cold? The problem is that the experts seem to not have any answers about who the biggest spreaders, how long it’s contagious, what might cause individuals outside the high risk population to come down with a severe case, etc. nobody knows anything.
I think everyone understands that and hope that it will abate when flu season is over. We are very close and just need to ride it out a little longer.