NCAA and Corona Virus

AreYouNUTS

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
123,582
57,645
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This thread may set the record for most bad takes of all time. If you don't understand how this is not the same as seasonal flu then you will very soon, unfortunately.

I yearn for the days of listening to people complain about Peter Kiss not playing.

I have a pre-existing heart condition (almost died from Infective Endocarditis in the summer of 2016) so am very much in one of the 2 "danger" groups (BUT am in very good health otherwise at this time and my body will easily fight it off SO LONG as I take necessary precautioins IF I begin to see any symptoms whatsoever, as it's been, let's say, "doormant" since 7/16) and understand that this is not "the same as seasonal flu," but I simply choose not to buy into the "fear mongering" of the media. Even Cuomo in NY, whom I can't stand, is saying much of the same. Will it likely get worse here, YES, but this "cancel events" **** is ridiculous at this point.
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
Point understood, but the unique characteristic of Corona is that at some point the volume of cases could force a shift in focus to go in the direction of quarantining the at risk population (rather than the general population) to try to ride this thing out. Weeks ago that sounded crazy and cruel - (i.e. to quarantine frail elderly and people with severe preexisting medical conditions prone to extreme cases). But if it turns out to be accurate that most Corona cases in healthy adults and kids are either asymptomatic or present as a mild cough, then what they are trying to do by shutting everything down simply won’t to work. They can’t shut schools, subways, etc. down forever. If kids carry this thing and continue to barely get symptoms, it’s going to come down to the frail grandparent population needing to stay away from their families anyway for their own safety. I’m not sure what the answer is, but if it turns out kids are the rampant carriers of this thing, shutting down major events isn’t going to do much to solve things. Life would literally either have to stop for an extended period of time or at some point, this thing may need to just run its course through the general population like the common cold? The problem is that the experts seem to not have any answers about who the biggest spreaders, how long it’s contagious, what might cause individuals outside the high risk population to come down with a severe case, etc. nobody knows anything.
Great post and as I said above the biggest problem in the US right now is we're not testing through the roof, like South Korea - by not testing, we're flying blind on the incidence of positive cases, which means it's very difficult to slow the spread of the virus.

Also, while the coronavirus is not much of a risk to young people (under 40), relatively speaking (in China, death rates in people 10-39 have been under 0.2%, not far from flu rates, and nobody under 9 has died), this doesn't mean those people shouldn't be taking precautions, like social distancing. The far bigger risk is that by traveling and being in large crowds, healthy/younger people could become infected, either asymptomatically or with mild symptoms (typical) and then become "spreaders" of the virus, risking the health of older people and the elderly (and people with underlying conditions), especially given the alarmingly high death/ICU rates for people over 60 in particular.
 

GoodOl'Rutgers

Heisman
Sep 11, 2006
123,974
19,586
0
I believe insurance companies are changing their policies about covering these shows and its causing the performers to need to cancel as well.
insurance companies should pay entertainers NOT to perform scheduled (and insured) performances.
 

derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
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As I've been saying, will be surprised if they allow fans into the games, given that almost every first round location already has at least one case of coronavirus, especially since by next Tuesday we should expect to see 5000+ cases in the US. And at some point, student-athlete safety will trump everything and they might even postpone. And the regionals? Let's see what the NBA/NHL do in LA/NY now that both areas are poised to see steep accelerations in cases - they have 19/14 now and should have 500+, each by the time of the regionals. This sucks balls.
I think the bigger thing is that the NCAA encourages alot of cross regional travel. Even if Cleveland doesnt have any cases right now, it almost certainly will if you start bringing in people from all over the country.
 

derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
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Why aren’t they shutting things down for the big ten tournament? One more week makes all the difference? I would be shocked if they went without fans.
Based on current trends - 2-3 times more people will have the disease in a week than now.
 

derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
1,449
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Incidentally, I already see the Y2K style post-virus response shaping up here. We take alot of measures to make sure it isnt that bad. It ends up being not that bad. Then a whole bunch of people say - well why did everyone freak out, it wasnt that bad.
 
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AreYouNUTS

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
123,582
57,645
113
I think the bigger thing is that the NCAA encourages alot of cross regional travel. Even if Cleveland doesnt have any cases right now, it almost certainly will if you start bringing in people from all over the country.

HOLY CRAP YOU'RE ALIVE!
 
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derleider

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2003
61,232
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I've read the CDC has reported 18,000 deaths from the flu during the same time period as the Corona virus. We are talking 3 dozen deaths compared to 18,000 in this country. I wish the media stop treating the public like idiots. Just give us the facts and let the public form it's own opinions.
Sure - because the flu is endemic and the coronavirus hasnt gotten there yet. But if we just went about our lives, it would be, quickly (at the rate thing are going it would reach flu level of infection density within 2-3 months.) and we would have a few hundred thousand deaths from it.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
248,505
178,116
113
Based on current trends - 2-3 times more people will have the disease in a week than now.

Well then this week would be pretty important to stop the spread because carriers who may not be showing symptoms at all are spreading it yet i heard not one mention of cancelling or holding conference tourneys with no fans
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
30-million cases of the "flu" this year in the U.S....nearing 20,000 dead....PLEASE stop the hysteria that's being extrapolated by the press!!!
Sorry my friend, but you're simply wrong on this. If we took your advice and did nothing, this virus would be significantly worse than the flu, overall, in both total cases and total deaths, as it has a higher transmission rate and a significantly higher mortality rate. That's why governments and people are doing things that may "look" like overreacting given relatively far fewer deaths so far across the world - they've seen the math and they want to prevent a major pandemic.

Now it's a fair question to ask if there is a middle ground between doing nothing and the kind of draconian quarantine China put in place for 56 million people in Hubei (or like Italy now). I personally think there is and South Korea is the example, as they've been testing like crazy (over 160,000 tests so far) and practicing effective social distancing/self-quarantining (so not in full lockdown) and while they have 7500 cases, the case rate is decreasing, plus their mortality rate is much lower than anywhere else (0.7% vs. 2-5% elsewhere), partly because of early identification/treatment and partly because the denominator is likely close to the real denominator, since they're finding mildly symptomatic people others aren't - and in fact the "true" mortality rate is probably close to SK's, but that's impossible to know without a lot more testing in these other countries.

Unfortunately, the US is not taking SK's approach, having completely bungled testing, which continues. It's unconscionable - this lack of testing is putting us at real risk of an Italy-style outbreak, especially in highly densely populated areas like DC to Boston, including NJ/NY, obviously.

Links below to the other thread on the football board, the SK "story" and the Johns Hopkins country/state (in the US) tracker of all cases worldwide.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...7-mortality-rate-1.191275/page-4#post-4437606

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
I think the bigger thing is that the NCAA encourages alot of cross regional travel. Even if Cleveland doesnt have any cases right now, it almost certainly will if you start bringing in people from all over the country.
Hey, welcome back man! How's things and are you back to posting? I recall you got married had a kid and went underground, probably because we sucked in football and hoops.

Figured you'd "get it" with regard to COVID-19, too. Good post. Lousy winter, too, if you like snow (you got your met degree from RU iirc).
 
A

anon_ivydyf0amkzay

Guest
I have a pre-existing heart condition (almost died from Infective Endocarditis in the summer of 2016) so am very much in one of the 2 "danger" groups (BUT am in very good health otherwise at this time and my body will easily fight it off SO LONG as I take necessary precautioins IF I begin to see any symptoms whatsoever, as it's been, let's say, "doormant" since 7/16) and understand that this is not "the same as seasonal flu," but I simply choose not to buy into the "fear mongering" of the media. Even Cuomo in NY, whom I can't stand, is saying much of the same. Will it likely get worse here, YES, but this "cancel events" **** is ridiculous at this point.
Best wishes AYN...
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
Sorry my friend, but you're simply wrong on this. If we took your advice and did nothing, this virus would be significantly worse than the flu, overall, in both total cases and total deaths, as it has a higher transmission rate and a significantly higher mortality rate. That's why governments and people are doing things that may "look" like overreacting given relatively far fewer deaths so far across the world - they've seen the math and they want to prevent a major pandemic.

Now it's a fair question to ask if there is a middle ground between doing nothing and the kind of draconian quarantine China put in place for 56 million people in Hubei (or like Italy now). I personally think there is and South Korea is the example, as they've been testing like crazy (over 160,000 tests so far) and practicing effective social distancing/self-quarantining (so not in full lockdown) and while they have 7500 cases, the case rate is decreasing, plus their mortality rate is much lower than anywhere else (0.7% vs. 2-5% elsewhere), partly because of early identification/treatment and partly because the denominator is likely close to the real denominator, since they're finding mildly symptomatic people others aren't - and in fact the "true" mortality rate is probably close to SK's, but that's impossible to know without a lot more testing in these other countries.

Unfortunately, the US is not taking SK's approach, having completely bungled testing, which continues. It's unconscionable - this lack of testing is putting us at real risk of an Italy-style outbreak, especially in highly densely populated areas like DC to Boston, including NJ/NY, obviously.

Links below to the other thread on the football board, the SK "story" and the Johns Hopkins country/state (in the US) tracker of all cases worldwide.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...7-mortality-rate-1.191275/page-4#post-4437606

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Also, here's more on the testing debacle in the US, which continues. We continue to be last in the world in testing for the coronavirus on a per capita basis, which is a very bad place to be. See the graphic and story below.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3

 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
I stopped right there. I said no such thing.

You may not have explicitly said that, but your posts have that tenor. How else should people interpret your posts about media fear-mongering or your comment that "this 'cancel events' **** is ridiculous?"
 
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay

Guest
Isn’t there a whole other stickied thread? Thought this was about the NCAA and the likely stupid decision they are likely to make (it is the NCAA...stupid is implied)
 

RU_DIO

Heisman
Sep 1, 2002
16,980
17,267
113
Just spoke to my cousin in Italy. I feel bad for them as she and my uncles family are quarantined in their home.

I'm wondering if we are going to see that here in the US.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
Sure - because the flu is endemic and the coronavirus hasnt gotten there yet. But if we just went about our lives, it would be, quickly (at the rate thing are going it would reach flu level of infection density within 2-3 months.) and we would have a few hundred thousand deaths from it.
Exactly what I said above. Given greater transmission rates and mortality rates for the coronavirus, only by aggressive testing and interventions (especially social distancing) can we keep this from becoming far, far worse than what has been seen so far in China and elsewhere. People simply have no clue.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
113
Isn’t there a whole other stickied thread? Thought this was about the NCAA and the likely stupid decision they are likely to make (it is the NCAA...stupid is implied)
There's a pinned thread on the football board, but not here, and given the likelihood of many people traveling to conference and NCAA tourney games, I think people ought to have a more complete picture of the risks involved to them, especially if they're over 60, and the risks involved if they catch the virus at a large social event and become a spreader of the virus.
 
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay

Guest
Just spoke to my cousin in Italy. I feel bad for them as she and my uncles family are quarantined in their home.

I'm wondering if we are going to see that here in the US.
Given all the stupid cancellations that have already happened I’d say some city will (like dumbass Austin, that least Texas of Texas towns calling something with no in-situ cases an emergency.) I could see their idiot mayor losing his **** and closing i35...most Texans would lobby to keep it shut forever!
 

RutCorRx

All-Conference
Nov 13, 2008
909
1,490
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RU#s. It's an uphill battle. I've seen so many willfully ignorant takes in this thread you just gotta shake your head.

Its fascinating to see the "hurr durr librul media try scare you" responses. And always not a single medical professional among them.
 
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay

Guest
RU#s. It's an uphill battle. I've seen so many willfully ignorant takes in this thread you just gotta shake your head.

Its fascinating to see the "hurr durr librul media try scare you" responses. And always not a single medical professional among them.
It is definitely something to take serious and we have lagged behind others...and the media does want you AS SCARED AND PANICKED as possible...both can be absolutely true simultaneously. The media is biased (has been, IS and ALWAYS will be) and they would love nothing more than utter failure because “orange man bad”.

if a democrat was in the WH the right and FNC will be similarly giddy and over reactive. It’s the nature of our fractured and tribalized state of affairs...

my tribe = good, your tribe = bad and evil

sadly, just like this flu, it has contaminated the one happy section of TKR...
 

RUinFla

All-Conference
Aug 2, 2001
15,934
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As I've been saying, will be surprised if they allow fans into the games, given that almost every first round location already has at least one case of coronavirus, especially since by next Tuesday we should expect to see 5000+ cases in the US. And at some point, student-athlete safety will trump everything and they might even postpone. And the regionals? Let's see what the NBA/NHL do in LA/NY now that both areas are poised to see steep accelerations in cases - they have 19/14 now and should have 500+, each by the time of the regionals. This sucks balls.

5,000+ cases by next Tuesday? We have maybe 750 confirmed cases, to date, and you expect this huge explosion this week? When it happens, you can point to this post and say oh, ye of little faith.
 

jersey07080

All-Conference
Dec 17, 2005
7,074
1,018
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5,000+ cases by next Tuesday? We have maybe 750 confirmed cases, to date, and you expect this huge explosion this week? When it happens, you can point to this post and say oh, ye of little faith.

Exponential growth
 

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
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5,000+ cases by next Tuesday? We have maybe 750 confirmed cases, to date, and you expect this huge explosion this week? When it happens, you can point to this post and say oh, ye of little faith.

Without more testing there is no way to know the scale of the problem. 750 confirmed cases, but how many people are carrying it right now without knowing?
 

AreYouNUTS

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
123,582
57,645
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Idiots on a plane made a flight change to a closer destination because a guy was sneezing. It was his allergies. #hysteria
 

quincybog

Sophomore
Jul 6, 2003
896
139
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5,000+ cases by next Tuesday? We have maybe 750 confirmed cases, to date, and you expect this huge explosion this week? When it happens, you can point to this post and say oh, ye of little faith.


And a bit of history – an estimated 675,000 Americans died in the flu pandemic of 1918; about 50 million died worldwide. From my perspective we are no better prepared in 2020 than they were 100 years go!
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,299
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5,000+ cases by next Tuesday? We have maybe 750 confirmed cases, to date, and you expect this huge explosion this week? When it happens, you can point to this post and say oh, ye of little faith.
The only way we won't have 5000 cases by next Tuesday is if the US continues its near criminal practice of not testing people, meaning we'll have that many infected or more, but just won't know it.
 
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ru66

All-American
Jul 28, 2001
12,175
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some posting on here must be the same guys panic buying toilet paper--it never is good to be hysterical or to love to watch train wrecks--get a grip--we know the seriousness --who needs the fear mongering
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
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RU#s. It's an uphill battle. I've seen so many willfully ignorant takes in this thread you just gotta shake your head.

Its fascinating to see the "hurr durr librul media try scare you" responses. And always not a single medical professional among them.
I know. I've tried to keep my posts purely scientific on the sports boards, but it's hard, seeing the incompetence with which our government has been dealing with this situation (apart from the travel ban from China early on, which likely bought us 3-4 weeks, but which we're now frittering away by not testing), especially with regard to lack of testing, as well as the ridiculous, misleading and inaccurate statements that come out of POTUS's mouth every time he speaks about this.

Anyway, back to the science - really good videos being put out by Dr. John Campbell a health expert/practitioner from the UK - and not just because he's saying almost the exact same things I've been saying, lol, i.e., lack of testing and lack of proactivity by governments almost everywhere, except South Korea - he also sees them as a likely "model" for how to deal with this pandemic.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnsc...reat-panic-of-coronavirus-myths/#6a2936fe2c51
 

Big boy stan

All-Conference
Oct 9, 2017
950
1,286
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I wonder how much revenue would be lost if they had no spectators for the first two weekends only. Last year's final weekend had 144K spectators and I would guess ticket prices were maybe 4 times more then the average of the first two weekends.
 
Jan 12, 2015
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I know. I've tried to keep my posts purely scientific on the sports boards, but it's hard, seeing the incompetence with which our government has been dealing with this situation (apart from the travel ban from China early on, which likely bought us 3-4 weeks, but which we're now frittering away by not testing), especially with regard to lack of testing, as well as the ridiculous, misleading and inaccurate statements that come out of POTUS's mouth every time he speaks about this.


How many hearings did Speaker Pelosi's House hold on coronavirus after the first reports from China in early 2020? Thanks.
 
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aplus29

Senior
Apr 29, 2003
402
495
63
Pearl Jam is politicizing it like they do everything. Put temp scanners at security and purell stations in the arenas, at worst you maybe move the spokane regional to a back up site
 
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