30 NET/27 Kenpom/30 BART

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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There's nothing RU can do about the NET rankings but last night strengthened their seeding.

Northern Iowa lost to Indiana State, which pretty much put a large dent into any thoughts of earning an At Large Bid from the MVC.

Stanford won at basement of the Pac 12 Washington, who is somehow 2-12 in conference play.

Arizona State won a home game vs Oregon which is 6th straight for them and went from 47 to 40. With Oregon State struggling, ASU is probably looking at another win.

Amazing how a home win for ASU jumps them up 7 spots, my expectation is beating Maryland at home will seal the deal for RU. Winning whatever road game left is also ideal, but winning any of the remaining 4 to 5 Q1 games will make this happen.


ASU moves up over RU in my seeding from last night. RU a 9 seed but now the 2nd strongest nine. ASU resume caught up to RU

The issue is in the past 6 games and RU probably had that 18 NET ranking prior to them, in the past 6 games, RU got only one quality win over Illinois at home, no road wins and a struggle win over Northwestern which ended up hurting their NET, the road games all to tourney schools but losses nonetheless

So while other schools are shoring up their resumes and making their cases down the stretch, RU has added very little. Just one quality win. Meanwhile there has been alot of losing by RU opponents in the nonconference schedule as well dinging it further.

So while RU has a solid enough resume, other schools are catching up. So they desperately need a Q1 road win to quell fears.

Winning matters and RU is just 2-4 in the last 6
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
I really hope the NCAA committee isn't going to pay much attention to NET and the 4 quad buckets. It is so silly to think NCAA chances hang on whether an opponent we play twice ends up with a NET of 35 vs 36.

I am starting to think the RPI is better tool. The reason is there is no margin bias, you know what the formula is, and you acknowledge how flawed it is and take it with a grain of salt.

The RPI sucks. Literally it's only advantage is simplicity.
 

bac2therac

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so obviously they are starting with some bias, what is it, is it last years stats?
 

bac2therac

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All 3 ACC schools can lose 2-3 more games and 2 of them will be on the 2 line and another on a 3, they have lost alot lately and yet no one is budging.
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,441
7,734
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All 3 ACC schools can lose 2-3 more games and 2 of them will be on the 2 line and another on a 3, they have lost alot lately and yet no one is budging.
Something is really weird with BPI and the NET. How Louisville can lose to 2 unranked teams in Georgia Tech and Clemson and hardly drop , or Duke loses by 22 and does not move even 1 spot ? Strange. On the other hand, I am thinking the top ACC schools are tanking games so they do not get only 3 teams in,, which would be their worst season ever. Coach K was incredibly calm and not too upset after they lost to a mediocre NC State team by 22 points the other night. The calmest press conference ever. He might have told his players do not go all out or risk injury as we need everyone for the tourney. I am joking but still their are some strange things going on in the ACC this year.
 

NiTeKnight

Senior
Nov 28, 2003
747
780
93
Something is really weird with BPI and the NET. How Louisville can lose to 2 unranked teams in Georgia Tech and Clemson and hardly drop , or Duke loses by 22 and does not move even 1 spot ? Strange. On the other hand, I am thinking the top ACC schools are tanking games so they do not get only 3 teams in,, which would be their worst season ever. Coach K was incredibly calm and not too upset after they lost to a mediocre NC State team by 22 points the other night. The calmest press conference ever. He might have told his players do not go all out or risk injury as we need everyone for the tourney. I am joking but still their are some strange things going on in the ACC this year.
Noticed that with Duke too! They lost by 22 and didn't drop in the NET.
 
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NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,622
39,085
113
ASU moves up over RU in my seeding from last night. RU a 9 seed but now the 2nd strongest nine. ASU resume caught up to RU

The issue is in the past 6 games and RU probably had that 18 NET ranking prior to them, in the past 6 games, RU got only one quality win over Illinois at home, no road wins and a struggle win over Northwestern which ended up hurting their NET, the road games all to tourney schools but losses nonetheless

So while other schools are shoring up their resumes and making their cases down the stretch, RU has added very little. Just one quality win. Meanwhile there has been alot of losing by RU opponents in the nonconference schedule as well dinging it further.

So while RU has a solid enough resume, other schools are catching up. So they desperately need a Q1 road win to quell fears.

Winning matters and RU is just 2-4 in the last 6

Oregon is 4-5 on the road...losing at ASU waant exactly surprising. Oregon has Arizona next.

I don't see the 7 position jump making sense anyway it's sliced. The opponents of RU has nothing to do with it, because with each win by teams like Wisconsin, SHU, Indiana, offsets Minnesota etc. If Indiana makes the dance and plays Purdue again, It's a wash because RU played and defeated both teams.

The NET is a guide but as mentioned by almost everyone on here, is formula based and not all road games are the same. If the committee is blind and believes playing at sleepy Stanford and Cal is the same as playing at Ohio State and Wisconsin/Purdue, there's nothing further from reality.

I just think for NCAA tournament purposes, the seeding is not results based and never has been for a LONG time. If the NCAA wants Duke on the 2 line and playing in MSG, they are not going to change their metrics, despite playing badly at UNC, where they should have lost and got every call from the refs late in that game. Lose by 20+ at NC State, nothing changes.

The NCAA tournament is about TV ratings and matchups that are compelling for TV . If that means it helps their brackets to have more west coast teams aligned in their brackets, that's 100% valid....but to explain ASU jumping 7 spots because their resume suddenly looks better, just because they beat Oregon at home, is BS.

This is about generating revenue, generating storylines, and aligning teams for matchups that could or would be interesting in games 1 and 2, not about strength of resume or a true seeding based on results. I have posted a couple of times, the difference between a 7 seed and a 10 seed or high 11 seed in this year's rankings is razor thin. Whatever makes the best storylines or game matchups dictates the seeding, not the true results/resume. If RU is seeded 11th or 9th or 7th, means very little in the process. It has to be very crystal clear that a team gets beyond a 7 seed area, in order for it to matter IMO.
 

Local Shill

All-American
Aug 30, 2001
21,524
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The regionals will sell out whether Duke is in MSG or LA. I agree that Duke gets coddled but there’s no need for the committee to do it.
Will ratings be better if they play in New York as opposed to Houston? It’s all shady.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
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UMass win took them much more comfortably up into Q3 (now #139), but Northwestern has now slipped into Q4 (#164).
 

bac2therac

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yeah saw that. Also thought St Bonnies would move up more after beating a top 50 NET in Richmond, still they inch closer, if they can win out which is quite possible, they will move into the top 100. Its too bad that their 30 point loss out of the blue at home to Davidson derailed their NET
 

ScarletDave

Heisman
Oct 7, 2010
34,611
15,368
85
NET takes into account point spread (up until 10 points) so a 1 point road loss to #16 actually didn’t hurt us in that regard
 

Scarlet Blind_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 5, 2001
4,663
4,726
62
Rhode Island line was -11.5, big difference in computer model win. Bad win against NET 270 Q4 road game. If they dropped 4 with a 1pt win, imagine how much more they would have dropped with a loss. They already have a Q3 loss.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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yes they should have, Richmond also dropped 3 spots with their close win at GW, 50 to 53
 

bac2therac

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looking to move up a couple spots in NET...double digit win but at home. Purdue with a big win at Iowa is likely to actually pass us...they may actually have just temporarily given us a 5th quad 1 win..
 

sport2231

Heisman
Jan 16, 2007
50,210
19,696
111
With the Purdue we popped to 27 in both Ken and Bart. I know committee doesn’t look at those two that much but interesting
 

RutgHoops

Heisman
Aug 14, 2008
9,239
12,410
102
looking to move up a couple spots in NET...double digit win but at home. Purdue with a big win at Iowa is likely to actually pass us...they may actually have just temporarily given us a 5th quad 1 win..

Moved up a bunch to 27 on kenpom. Net has been trailing kenpom by 2-3 spots for the past few weeks. Think 29/30 NET tomorrow seems right.

That Purdue win was big (IMO). If we lose @PU we’ll have 5 Q1 wins which only strengthens a very solid resume and if we win @PU any small remaining doubt is removed.
 
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bac2therac

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well they arent in top 30 yet so we still have only 4 Q1 wins...and Wisky is right at 30 I think, hopefully we can pop Illinois in there by seasons end
 
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DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
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This is the other flaw in the system in my opinion. All this variable movement. You should get credit for where a team is when you play them. You beat a tough team at the time who falls apart that shouldn't make you win count less.
Same for the reverse. You beat a bad team that turns it on you shouldn't get credit.
And nothing should be calculated until 1/3 of the season and conf. play begins.

I know its really hard to have a perfect system and this adds some entertainment and some additional opponent rooting factor..but I think it needs a few tweaks.

Just get us in and it'll be fine though. :)
 

Local Shill

All-American
Aug 30, 2001
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Penn State could fall out of top 30
Yup, their late-season swoon could be costly for RU. PSU (30) is barely a quad 1 wins now. Really need them to stay in the top 30.

Wisconsin (27) also needs to stay in the top 30. As of now we have 4 and could definitely use at least 1 more.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
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This is the other flaw in the system in my opinion. All this variable movement. You should get credit for where a team is when you play them. You beat a tough team at the time who falls apart that shouldn't make you win count less.

That's sort of what BPI tries to get at.... that metric counts our SHU game with less weight because of injuries to that team when we played them (no Mamu, and no Powell for the second half). You can take all kinds of factors into consideration.

But getting credit for where a team is when you play them isn't a great metric either.... because it relies on rankings done based on preseason expectations for most of the OOC schedule. Some teams get a lot of preseason hype, but end up not being worthy of that billing, so it'd be giving credit for a ranked win to a team that was only ranked on hype. On the flip side, you could beat a team that didn't have a lot of buzz when you played them but they ended up being much stronger than anticipated in the preseason... and you shouldn't get knocked for their ranking at the time you played them, because it was based on bad assumptions about their strength.
 
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DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
30,708
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That's sort of what BPI tries to get at.... that metric counts our SHU game with less weight because of injuries to that team when we played them (no Mamu, and no Powell for the second half). You can take all kinds of factors into consideration.

But getting credit for where a team is when you play them isn't a great metric either.... because it relies on rankings done based on preseason expectations for most of the OOC schedule. Some teams get a lot of preseason hype, but end up not being worthy of that billing, so it'd be giving credit for a ranked win to a team that was only ranked on hype. On the flip side, you could beat a team that didn't have a lot of buzz when you played them but they ended up being much stronger than anticipated in the preseason... and you shouldn't get knocked for their ranking at the time you played them, because it was based on bad assumptions about their strength.

understand. Thats why I suggested no rankings until after 1/3 played. That's what the NCAA Football Playoff thing does. It waits for things to settle a bit.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
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understand. Thats why I suggested no rankings until after 1/3 played. That's what the NCAA Football Playoff thing does. It waits for things to settle a bit.

But in that scenario, coupled with using ranking at the time of the game, the first third of the schedule would have no ranked wins, either. There really isn't a perfect measurement - but I think overall ranking is one of the better ways to look at it, with at least some consideration made for wins/losses when key players were not on the court.
 
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DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
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But in that scenario, coupled with using ranking at the time of the game, the first third of the schedule would have no ranked wins, either. There really isn't a perfect measurement - but I think overall ranking is one of the better ways to look at it, with at least some consideration made for wins/losses when key players were not on the court.
you get "post" credit for the first third after the rankings come out so they do count. You just don't know HOW they count for a bit. (well you have an idea because of the AP and coaches poll etc...but the NET isn't published yet).

Correct. No perfect Metric.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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Yup, their late-season swoon could be costly for RU. PSU (30) is barely a quad 1 wins now. Really need them to stay in the top 30.

Wisconsin (27) also needs to stay in the top 30. As of now we have 4 and could definitely use at least 1 more.


Penn State and to a lesser extent Illinois are hurt by their OOC schedule....Illinois if they can win at OSU and that last game I dont know who off hand has a shot at top 30.
 

bac2therac

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Penn St 324 non conference schedule

Illinois 241 non conference...

these are the kind of rankings that combined with the poor RU road mark would send RU out of the tourney, thats what I think guys like Palm and other solely looking at road record as the whole of RUs profile are missing. Usually it takes two items that stand out to knock you out. RU OOC sos is 89 which is solid enough, if it was 200 plus then they would have a point
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
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10 B1G teams in the NET Top 40, which is crazy.

7 MSU
15 OSU
18 Maryland
24 Michigan
27 Wisconsin
30 Penn St
31 Rutgers
32 Purdue
34 Iowa
37 Illinois
47 Minnesota
54 Indiana
176 Nebraska
193 Northwestern

Number of Top 40 teams by conference:
10 - B1G
6 - Big East
5 - P12
4 - B12, SEC
3 - ACC, WCC
2 - MWC
1 - A10, AAC, MVC
 
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