Year 1 and 2 is about recruiting, not wins and losses. You want to see Schiano bring in guys that will significantly upgrade the talent on the team.
Year 3 you want to see some improvement on the field, because even the players we have, plus the new guys, will be coached well and buying into the offensive and defensive schemes. You want to limit blow-out losses, win the games you should, and steal a couple of the toss-ups.
Year 4 and 5, Schiano is now responsible for the talent and the playbook. While his best players will still be young, we should be fully competitive and flirting with bowl eligibility.
Year 6 and beyond, this is fully Schiano's team. This is what you get with him. Like with any coach, don't expect a straight line trajectory. There will be some up years and some down years. But hopefully the trend is upward, as his recruiting continues to improve and we build from bowl eligibility to being fully competitive with the top of the league. Alternatively, he plateaus.