I can almost see the glee on his face as he types this.
OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8
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I can almost see the glee on his face as he types this.
The term you are looking for is Boner. [jumpingsmile]
The Kuchera maps are less than a foot for New Brunswick..this is likely less than a 10-1 ratio so those you probably should be showing those maps as well instead of just the 10-1 maps
Latest discussion from the NWS...show gets going in CNJ around 11 am or so
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
930 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes with the 930 update from the previous
forecast. Some models are shifting the axis of heaviest
precipitation slightly further east. However, the low is still
off the Delmarva coast and the vorticity maximum is just
starting to come in to the area. Additionally, high resolution
models are running slightly low on temperatures across the
coastal plains which would suggest that the change over is
depicted too early.
Still expecting mesoscale banding with high snow rates to
develop in the next few hours, and it looks like the bulk of the
precipitation could continue through the afternoon.
No changes to the headlines from the early morning update. At
that time, areas that were under Winter Weather Advisories were
upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories
were issued for central portions of the Delmarva, parts of
southeast NJ, and coastal Monmouth county.
MET/MAV MOS guidance were too warm for max temps this afternoon, and
this is probably due to temps going into the early morning hours.
Used a blend of NAM/GFS 2-M temps for highs generally in the low to
mid 30s north and west of the Fall Line, and in the mid to upper 30s
most elsewhere and in the low 40s approaching coastal NJ and
southern portions of the Delmarva.
Closer to southeast NJ and southern portions of the Delmarva,
temperatures will be warm enough for generally all rain, and locally
heavy rain is possible at times this afternoon. In addition, with
weak mid level CAPE sliding along the coast, a few embedded
thunderstorms are possible. Will introduce slight chance for thunder
for mainly coastal areas this afternoon.
Tight pressure gradient, combined with strong LLJ, will result in
increasing easterly flow this afternoon, ranging from 15-25 mph with
25-35 mph gusts for much of southeast NJ and into the Delmarva. The
strongest winds will be right along the coast, and this onshore flow
will result in tidal flooding later today. The Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below has more information.
Winds farther inland will not be as strong.
Given temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, this is
expected to be a heavy, wet snow that will result in tree and power
line damage leading to power outages.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
930 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes with the 930 update from the previous
forecast. Some models are shifting the axis of heaviest
precipitation slightly further east. However, the low is still
off the Delmarva coast and the vorticity maximum is just
starting to come in to the area. Additionally, high resolution
models are running slightly low on temperatures across the
coastal plains which would suggest that the change over is
depicted too early.
Still expecting mesoscale banding with high snow rates to
develop in the next few hours, and it looks like the bulk of the
precipitation could continue through the afternoon.
No changes to the headlines from the early morning update. At
that time, areas that were under Winter Weather Advisories were
upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories
were issued for central portions of the Delmarva, parts of
southeast NJ, and coastal Monmouth county.
MET/MAV MOS guidance were too warm for max temps this afternoon, and
this is probably due to temps going into the early morning hours.
Used a blend of NAM/GFS 2-M temps for highs generally in the low to
mid 30s north and west of the Fall Line, and in the mid to upper 30s
most elsewhere and in the low 40s approaching coastal NJ and
southern portions of the Delmarva.
Closer to southeast NJ and southern portions of the Delmarva,
temperatures will be warm enough for generally all rain, and locally
heavy rain is possible at times this afternoon. In addition, with
weak mid level CAPE sliding along the coast, a few embedded
thunderstorms are possible. Will introduce slight chance for thunder
for mainly coastal areas this afternoon.
Tight pressure gradient, combined with strong LLJ, will result in
increasing easterly flow this afternoon, ranging from 15-25 mph with
25-35 mph gusts for much of southeast NJ and into the Delmarva. The
strongest winds will be right along the coast, and this onshore flow
will result in tidal flooding later today. The Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below has more information.
Winds farther inland will not be as strong.
Given temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, this is
expected to be a heavy, wet snow that will result in tree and power
line damage leading to power outages.
Last night as she was leaving the office my daughter was told they'd be closed today. She gets a call early this AM telling her they changed their mind and she should come in. Now they're telling her they're closing at Noon or 1pm. Make up your darn mind!
I've been noting that the ratios will likely be more like 7-8" of snow per inch of liquid equivalent precip, but that the mass that falls, which is most important for impacts (snow removal and mass on trees) is more important at least to me, which is why I post the 10:1 maps Hopefully people can do the math of multiplying the snow depth in those maps by about 75%. And I don't really want to show both maps. NWS maps are snow on the ground, which is why I usually focus on those, but I thought they've been underdone SE of 95.
I wouldnt say that yet, while Philly may not get the best dynamics with this storm compared to others up to the north, there is still a potential for a 6-12 inch dump there
The early part of the storm in Philly and most of 95 was always going to be white rain with light to moderate snow mostly melting and some rain, too. The storm is supposed to start cranking out heavier precip in the next hour or two. If places along 95 don't have heavy snow by 12-1 pm, then you can start talking bust.
just some light rain in Belle Mead, got maybe 1/2 inch of snow that fell on grassy surfaces earlier and that has melted away in half the areas, do not be lulled by the lull..this is not the main show...sometime between 12-6PM...hopefully the western sections look to be done by 7pm with accumulating snow but we shall see
My boss is at our bottle shop, Im at the case store. Both debating if we should close early and what time. Have been having this discussions numerous times since yesterday. Still haven't made up our minds. Lol. The change back to rain every other 5 mins isn't helping either.
I grew up in Green Brook and when I got married moved up here and I noticed a difference in the amount of snow that fell up here shortly afterwards. We got about 6 inches maybe a little more this past Friday. About 30 inches for the winter so far. My son has had 6 or 7 days off from school so far this winter. I took off from work for today when I got there Monday because I know how the schools up here handle it. They closed the schools at about 8:30 last night.
My son went to Pope John, my daughter MOHS. There were a few days one would have off but the other had school lol.
:chairshot:
no way...relax and have some java.....this was expected. Its coming between 12-6 PM, do not worry you will get your dump and if its busting, you will hear it here first
in the old days in the 70s and 80s...everyone would go to school and they would give us a half day if it started snowing later in the morning....do not recall ever them anticipating snow to cancel..there were times were we were going to school with an inch or two down,.
Are the totals decreasing with each successive map you post?12z HRRR Kuchera vs 10-1
I'm just trying to figure out how much time I have to walk back to my building (15-minutes or so). Thanks BAC!
Snow and wind but nothing sticking and not much here in Newark. Again, this was expected, but let's see what happens near noon.
not necessarily.....I posted both the Kuchera which tries to predict ratios and the standard 10-1 map. So you might have seen Numbers post 10-1 maps but not the Kuchera so you might be confused. Most storms are 10-1 or even higher but indications and a good number of pros think the ratios will be signficantly less for this storm..maybe 7-1
I will say though that on the HRRR if the Kuchera is right thats not all that bad to get 8 inches, that seems a little less than some of the more obscene runs last night..some hope I guess but the show has not started and we do not know where the banding is setting up so I would still expect everyone to be line for 8-14, a little less to the shore, a little more to the Northwest and we can keep our fingers crossed the lower totals end up verifying because when it starts getting to a foot or more, it can really start to effect peoples lives and effect the economy for day or so.
interesting..who is their weather guy there....i know they put some girl doing it but she probably isnt a met. I used to love Linda Church that cougar on there..."Churchie"
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The rain/snow line seems to be setting up the opposite way in Harrison.
I just took a walk two blocks EAST of me and it's snowing.So I figured that it had changed to snow by me.
Nope,still raining.
I just took a walk two blocks EAST of me and it's snowing.So I figured that it had changed to snow by me.
Nope,still raining.
OT - Watch Oak Island last night? Thought there'd be a cliffhanger. I guess they're going to do another year.
The Asbury Park Press update says there will be zero accumulation in Ocean County. We are right across the river from Brick, and hoping were are in the zerio zone.
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