OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread
- Thread starter RU4Real
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The path keeps moving eastward. Any chance it goes out to sea and we dodge a bullet?
My sister-in-law lives in Sunset Beach, NC. They are about a mile from the ocean. To date, that area has not got a direct hit in the 15 years they have been down there. I hope their luck continues.
Possible. Although as per last post, the 12z GFS moved back to the west and is a devastating run for the east coast of FL.
Yep, they almost look identical - I edited my post a few minutes ago to add that and the graphic. That would be catastrophic to have a 145 mph hurricane riding up the coast of South Florida, over Miam, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm, etc. That was the fear last year with Matthew and those cities were all spared by a 30-40 mile jog east in the 12 hours or so before landfall. Those kinds of tiny errors can't be predicted accurately yet, yet they have such a huge impact.
I'm actually in Leland, just across the bridge from Wilmington and was supposed to play golf at Oyster Bay, very close to Sunset Beach this morning but got rained out. FWIW, played golf on Monday with a couple of guys who have been down here for a long time, and mentioned that the early track of this storm was the same as the late 1990's when the Cape Fear river was a magnet for landfall for hurricanes. I remember when TWC always seemed to be reporting from Wrightsville Beach. Hopefully, Irma isn't a throw back
hope it keeps moving eastwardThat track would be horrible for the east coast of South Florida with a Cat 4 storm going directly over all the major cities on the coast. Today's 12Z GFS takes a very similar track going over Miami/FLL and eventually tracking just off the FL coast and hitting around Hilton Head/Savannah. Obviously this needs to be watched.
I get your point still seems to me the trend offers more information than the point. But hey for weather models I'm wrong.
Again another push of the track eastward
see the track on the interactive:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?gm_track#contents
This is definitely the worst case scenario, as it slams Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm and then crawls right up the east coast of Florida into Georgia/SC. Just pray it takes a harder right turn and just goes out to sea...
I heard a report that it was exactly that.
Through 96 hours the 12z Euro is tracking the 12z GFS pretty closely.
I have been down here 18+ years and this is the first hurricane that I am planning to evacuate for. I do not like how it is tracking and being in West Palm Beach not far from the ocean doesn't look like a smart move.
That's a great area. We lived in Wilmington from 1990-92. Bertha in 1996 was the last really big storm to hit the area, I think. Good luck!!
extreme novice here with a question.... the sept 6th 00Z euro does not have the storm wandering into the Ohio valley so much, it appears the remains make a move into central Pa or so on Sept 14th... if so, how bad will NJ get wacked if the center of the low is located there, and storm having been over land for a couple of days?
extreme novice here with a question.... the sept 6th 00Z euro does not have the storm wandering into the Ohio valley so much, it appears the remains make a move into central Pa or so on Sept 14th... if so, how bad will NJ get wacked if the center of the low is located there, and storm having been over land for a couple of days?
If you take a look at the 850 mb wind speeds in that same timeframe you'll see that the model is predicting 40 kts around the center of the remnant low. That's 40 kts at roughly 5000', so it wouldn't translate to much at the surface. The GFS shows a similar track for the remnant low (western NC/VA through southern NY) and predicts surface wind speeds here in NJ to max out at around 14 kts.
Mostly a rain event for us at that point I would guess. Currently this doesn't seem to be much of a rain producer 6-7 inches predicted for southern florida, though there are swath's over the islands where they are predicting 12-18 inches of rain.
I do not know what factors into the when, where and how much a hurricane drops rainfall. Could it actually be a bigger rain producer later in it's cycle?
Only have a minute, but the 12Z GFS, Euro, and CMC (haven't seen UK; edit - UK is similar to the other three) all are aligned, pretty much, on a ride up the east coast of Florida from the south, slamming Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and maybe West Palm Beach, then both the Euro and GFS have Irma heading up the coast just offshore and then hitting somewhere in the GA/SC border area, before petering out somewhere in the Ohio Valley, while the CMC has Irma hit the OBX and then go inland.
Rare to see that kind of agreement and I suspect it won't last, but for at least the first part of that forecast, through Day 4 and landfall in SE FL, people should be very concerned in that area, as the 4-day accuracy of the Euro especially, has been very good. Catstrophic is an overused word. Not in this case if a 140-150 mph hurricane hits S. Florida and the big cities there.
Rare to see that kind of agreement and I suspect it won't last, but for at least the first part of that forecast, through Day 4 and landfall in SE FL, people should be very concerned in that area, as the 4-day accuracy of the Euro especially, has been very good. Catstrophic is an overused word. Not in this case if a 140-150 mph hurricane hits S. Florida and the big cities there.
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Construction cranes in Miami could be a problem.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/miami....0838/hurricane-irma-miami-construction-cranes
https://www.google.com/amp/s/miami....0838/hurricane-irma-miami-construction-cranes
extreme novice here with a question.... the sept 6th 00Z euro does not have the storm wandering into the Ohio valley so much, it appears the remains make a move into central Pa or so on Sept 14th... if so, how bad will NJ get wacked if the center of the low is located there, and storm having been over land for a couple of days?
it would be way too early to even have a clue on what any remnants of this storm would do here, possible we get some rains, but its quite possible we also get absolutely nothing
Maybe I'm not understanding, but the Euro (we're talking ECMWF model, right?) takes the storm up the east coast of Florida, across Georgia-SC border, into the Ohio River valley, then exits stage right across New York. With the center of circulation cut way off from the warm water energy source, and return flow coming down from Canada and over the Appalachians, this isn't going to be Sandy Part II. The storm will go extratropical, then be a rainy & windy day for us most likely.extreme novice here with a question.... the sept 6th 00Z euro does not have the storm wandering into the Ohio valley so much, it appears the remains make a move into central Pa or so on Sept 14th... if so, how bad will NJ get wacked if the center of the low is located there, and storm having been over land for a couple of days?
No major change to the track or intensity with the 5 pm NHC update. All of South Florida could have landfall, although the east coast of Florida is at the center of the track cone, meaning it's the most likely destination. Direct hits of a Cat 4/5 hurricane on Miami and Fort Lauderdale would be catastrophic and then a secondary hit in GA/SC (or maybe NC) as a Cat 2/3 would be very impactful in those areas. Impacts to NJ still looke to be minor to modest, assuming the storm eventually goes well inland from the Carolinas and peters out over land. No NJ landfall is on any models, so major impacts are unlikely.
Bertha was July 1996 followed by Fran in September 1996. I remember well. Built a weekend home on Topsail Island in '93 and weathered them both. Lived in Cary at the time. Fran did some damage inland there. No power for about a week. Lots of downed trees and PUD misery. Mrs. RUinPinehurst was in Pebble Beach "for work" when Fran hit, oblivious to Fran and the damage done. I still remind her of that. Her parents and kin folk still live in Hampstead.
Minor point: it's the most powerful hurricane ever in the open Atlantic Ocean, not the Atlantic Basin (i.e., there have been a few more powerful storms in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico). Having said that, measurements of simple things like barometric pressure and wind speeds were pretty easy to do well 100+ years ago, so the period of record for reasonably accurate measurements is generally considered to be since about the 1850s, especially for major hurricanes that impacted shipping (all ships had such instruments) and/or made landfall near any population center. Of course, measurements have gotten a bit better in the satellite/hurricane hunter era, i.e., since the mid-1960s, but that has made a much bigger difference on minor storms, which could have escaped ship detection pre-satellites.
Floyd was mostly a rain event too and I had 2 foot of water in my basement and that was with the pumps running. "Remnants" from Camile caused quite a bit of havoc in Virginia way NE of its landfall location with 153 deaths. This sucker stays over water until Charleston and then comes up into our area it'll be quite a rain event with some 30-40 mph wind tossed in. Think bad nor'easter like April 2007.
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Was in Chapel Hill for Fran in September 1996. For some reason, the power did not go out in my building (a kind of dormitory for grad students that I *hated*) But many people did lose power, and many of those folks were dependent on wells for water. No electricity, no water. People in the area seemed shaken for the rest of the year. Snow melts, but a fallen tree on your house or yard doesn't go away.
I know there were some posts a few pages back about pressure, storm size, and wind speed and how they're related, e.g., how a storm can have the same pressure and maximum winds, yet be strengthening significantly, if the storm size is increasing at the same time. Thought @RU4Real and a few others would be interested in the comments below and the graphic/link.
One way to try to "normalize" these variables into a single measure is the integrated kinetic energy for a particular storm, which can be calculated over the history of the storm or as a snapshot at some particularly important time, like landfall. This measure truly shows the sum total of energy being generated by a tropical storm.
For instance, this technique showed that, at landfall, Sandy was the 2nd strongest storm, by IKE since 1990 (after Isabel), because it was so friggin' huge and had a gigantic windfield of hurricane force winds. And I think people see this and can understand why it makes sense, since it certainly seemed like Sandy was a monster storm, but measured only by pressure or wind speed, it was somewhat pedestrian - factor in its huge size and total kinetic energy and it was a monster, like we know it was.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4b8e0ce5ddaf
One way to try to "normalize" these variables into a single measure is the integrated kinetic energy for a particular storm, which can be calculated over the history of the storm or as a snapshot at some particularly important time, like landfall. This measure truly shows the sum total of energy being generated by a tropical storm.
For instance, this technique showed that, at landfall, Sandy was the 2nd strongest storm, by IKE since 1990 (after Isabel), because it was so friggin' huge and had a gigantic windfield of hurricane force winds. And I think people see this and can understand why it makes sense, since it certainly seemed like Sandy was a monster storm, but measured only by pressure or wind speed, it was somewhat pedestrian - factor in its huge size and total kinetic energy and it was a monster, like we know it was.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4b8e0ce5ddaf
That would be true, if it comes towards us and slows down; however, every model shows it going much further inland regardless of where it makes landfall, driven by the weakness between the upper level low that'll be in the SE US steering Irma north from Cuba and the trough that'll be off of eastern Canada and shows it kind of petering out. Since that's still 5+ days out, yes, it could be wrong and we are impacted more, but that's not what any models are showing.
This is Barbuda in the eye of Irma's 185 mph winds this morning. This pic captures so well the duality of the astonishing beauty and terrible reality of extreme storms like this.
That is farking nuts. So far they are saying 1 dead on Barbuda, which would seem to be incredibly low.This is Barbuda in the eye of Irma's 185 mph winds this morning. This pic captures so well the duality of the astonishing beauty and terrible reality of extreme storms like this.
Latest models (18z) more or less agree on track with about a 50 mile variance - Miami, then barely offshore almost all the way up the coast to SC. The next 24 hours are critical, because the major models are showing impressive consistency in the sub-5 day range, right now.
More important are the indications that this storm is getting bigger and stronger. Recon is headed in for another pass, but Irma is a beast and getting meaner, even before hitting the 86 - 90 degree waters north of Cuba.
More important are the indications that this storm is getting bigger and stronger. Recon is headed in for another pass, but Irma is a beast and getting meaner, even before hitting the 86 - 90 degree waters north of Cuba.
In St. Petersburg, and at least this more eastern track is looking favorable for us. It's crazy here... there's no water anywhere, gas stations either have lines or are out of gas, the lines for the sandbag stations are hours long, roads to get out of FL are already at a standstill, and schools are cancelled tomorrow and Friday. The Rutgers Club of Tampa Bay gamewatch party for Saturday was already canceled. Luckily we went to get sandbags when the station opened at 7:30am with our own bags and shovel in hand, so we were in and out in 20 mins. I had a weird feeling and bought a bunch of water over the weekend so we're set there. Have to clear the shed and yard in the next few days. As a nurse, I'll be at the hospital 8 hours before it hits and staying until it ends, while the husband stays at home with the 5 pets. We should be ok... I hope everyone in the path is ok and suffers minimal damage! Now it's just a waiting game... looking at the models every few hours are making me crazy!
If the current guidance verifies, you're gonna have a pretty boring day in St. Pete.
Sounds good to me! I just wanted to watch the game Saturday, work my 12 hours Sunday, and watch the Giants Sunday night. Maybe it can still happen.