I've seen headlines stating that Irma is now the most powerful storm on record in the Atlantic. Is that true?
OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread
- Thread starter RU4Real
- Start date
Every damn post makes it seem like you're wishing for a serious hurricane to punch us in the face. What the hell is wrong with you
Maybe he's hoping to hasten end times and the second coming?
Pretty good agreement between the two big models in the overnight runs. As @RU848789 has already mentioned, the eastward trend is well established so the real question at this point is "how far east will it go"? ECMWF and GFS landfall points are both right around Charlotte. It should be an interesting day, watching the models run and seeing what they see.
Regardless of actual landfall, we should keep in mind that this is a monster of a storm and if it runs along the coast from southern FL all the way to the Carolinas it's going to cause a LOT of coastal damage.
Regardless of actual landfall, we should keep in mind that this is a monster of a storm and if it runs along the coast from southern FL all the way to the Carolinas it's going to cause a LOT of coastal damage.
Kind of. It's the most powerful storm on record in the open Atlantic Ocean with regard to winds, i.e., not including the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean. Allen had greater winds and a bunch of Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean/GOM/Carib) storms have had lower pressures.
Thanks! Actually heard a similar explanation on the radio this morning after I posted. I really appreciate your & RU4Real's posts on the hurricanes and weather in general.
As expected, the NHC adjusted the track about 50-75 miles to the NE at 120 hours, meaning instead of it hitting Florida near Naples, the track has it hitting Florida right around Islamorada with ~150 mph winds and then the center of the penisula and going right up the peninsula from south to north, weakening some, of course.
They did not move the track as far east as the Euro/GFS show, i.e., off shore of FL with landfall in SC, but that's likely because they don't like flip-flopping with big model shifts - they'll want to see some run to run consistency before making that big of a shift in the official track.
However, the cone of potential tracks still includes the west coast of Florida to the east coast, as well as offshore about 100 miles from each coast, as that's the uncertainty in a 4-5 day forecast and is why everyone in South Florida needs to prepare for this. Footage and reports from some of the northernmost Leeward Islands shows catastrophic damage, as one would expect from a Cat 5 storm.
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No, I just don't want people to be unprepared.
Also amateurs like RUFake are spread into false info & saying that it has no chance of coming to our area.
Keep an eye on this track. It's setting up to come up here.
What professionals are saying that it's coming here? Answer that one, troll.
Stop saying things that are easily refuted by the National Hurricane Center.
Interesting. That's contrary to what seems logical to me. I would think that more (deeper?) initial data would kick the model off more accurately.
Well that much math is over my head I'm just a software guy.
No one is willing to predict out that far. And if they did their predictions wouldn't carry any weight. But the spaghetti's are showing a higher likelihood now then they did last night.
It may well be that there's little value in what the atmosphere used to look like, and all the value lies in what it looks like now. "How we got here" isn't generally a question that requires analysis.
Not really, but the possibility is out there. It is something to keep an eye on.
Meh... Now you're just asking for one of @RU848789's 5000 word posts on modeling, chaos and stochastic processes.
Yeah but more than one data point (let's call it deeper) for an initial condition would provide a direction instead of a point. Seems to me for example input parameter A is more useful predicting if you know it went from 20 to 500 instead of it just being 500. But apparently I am wrong. <shrug>
Enough thinking.
First, thank-you to you and #'s for the constant updates. Not only, really interesting to follow, but also extremely important to those of us who might be in harm's way.
Anyway, I assume you meant Charleston, SC, not Charlotte for possible landfall, correct? I'm in Wilmington, NC, so imagine we could get a pretty good hit as well so starting to think about preparations. Any guesses when this might become more clear? Thanks again!
Looking at the radar it looks further south then expected, as if the eye or at least part of the wall will go over Cuba. Which makes me think it's more likely to go a bit more west, but all the spaghetti's are pushing east.
I'm also a bit skeptical of what seems like the 100% confidence the trough/low will pull this thing so strongly to the north.
I'm also a bit skeptical of what seems like the 100% confidence the trough/low will pull this thing so strongly to the north.
I've always thought of it like this:
Assume the storm is just a block of wood in the ocean. At first we just estimate the size of the block and predict where it will go based on factors in the atmosphere.
12 hours later we get better info on the size of the block and also better data on the atmospheric factors pulling/pushing the block.
That old data run doesn't really matter anymore because it's stale data. If the original run estimated the size of the block at 1 but now we observe it's closer to 2 - does that original run really provide any useful information for future predictions?
Or if we thought atmosphere factor X was applying a force of 2 to the block but now we think it will apply a force of 5, does the force of 2 matter?
Note: I have no idea how these models run and what data they use. Just how I've dumbed it down for myself.
Yes, my bad - I meant Charleston when I wrote Charlotte.
As far as clarity goes, the Euro and GFS have both been pretty strong out to 72 hours and the Euro has the best verification scores out to 120. So if we were to take that, verbatim, just for the sake of the discussion then the Euro at 120 hours shows Irma just brushing the coast of south central Florida, due east of Lake Okeechobee, on its way to Charleston-ish. If that track were to verify then you'd wind up with something like a mild storm in Wilmington - figure wind speeds between 20 and 30 knots.
Lol your right. Only prOblem is its only a mile from my condo and also right on the beach, so if the condos in trouble so is the Flora Bama (Although Id rather be wind blown there)
In terms of wind speed, 100 miles is a big difference. A 100 mile miss to the east would mean low-end tropical storm force winds for the FL coast, albeit with a lot of heavy surf, some flooding and some beach erosion.
As we saw with Mathew last year, as it stayed just a bit off the Florida coast, it can make a drastic difference.
This storm is bigger and more powerful, but still, a near miss is MUCH different then a direct hit.
Next you are going to tell us the storm is racist.
True.
And the beaches on Florida's east coast, at least once you get past the middle of the state, are pretty robust.
The 11:00 update from NHC is good enough to post without comment:
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
The eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
this morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands shortly. A NOAA National Ocean Service
observing site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a
gust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed.
The station also reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb. A minimum
pressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft that performed a single pass through the eye
this morning reported SFMR winds of 152 kt in the northwestern
eyewall around 12Z. Assuming there are stronger winds in the
northeastern eyewall, the initial intensity remains 160 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force aircraft is currently entering the
storm.
Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is
expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2
to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this
period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected
consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving
southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to
turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of
recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.
Irma is forecast to remain within favorable atmospheric conditions
and over warm waters during the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, Irma
is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane during this time, and
the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory
through day 4. Since the 120-h forecast point is now offshore, the
intensity forecast at that time has been adjusted accordingly.
Now that Irma's eye is clearly visible in radar imagery from San
Juan, Tropical Cyclone Updates with hourly position estimates
will be issued starting at 1200 PM AST (1600 UTC).
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
The eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
this morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands shortly. A NOAA National Ocean Service
observing site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a
gust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed.
The station also reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb. A minimum
pressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft that performed a single pass through the eye
this morning reported SFMR winds of 152 kt in the northwestern
eyewall around 12Z. Assuming there are stronger winds in the
northeastern eyewall, the initial intensity remains 160 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force aircraft is currently entering the
storm.
Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is
expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2
to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this
period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected
consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving
southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to
turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of
recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.
Irma is forecast to remain within favorable atmospheric conditions
and over warm waters during the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, Irma
is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane during this time, and
the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory
through day 4. Since the 120-h forecast point is now offshore, the
intensity forecast at that time has been adjusted accordingly.
Now that Irma's eye is clearly visible in radar imagery from San
Juan, Tropical Cyclone Updates with hourly position estimates
will be issued starting at 1200 PM AST (1600 UTC).
Again another push of the track eastward
see the track on the interactive:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?gm_track#contents
see the track on the interactive:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?gm_track#contents
The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.
1st photos and video of the aftermath.. pretty brutal:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/americas/hurricane-irma-update.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/americas/hurricane-irma-update.html
Nope, he's not gonna tell us anything going forward.
Beaches to the north are in bad shape from Matthew. My beach was rebuilt one month ago and sea oats just planted. Nothing holding them together.
Again another push of the track eastward
see the track on the interactive:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?gm_track#contents
That track would be horrible for the east coast of South Florida with a Cat 4 storm going directly over all the major cities on the coast. Today's 12Z GFS takes a very similar track going over Miami/FLL and eventually tracking just off the FL coast and hitting around Hilton Head/Savannah. Obviously this needs to be watched.
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