If you can make one with the power and mileage capacity with 5-10 minute refill times that is reasonable in price you will have more people ready to switch.
OT - Telsa Model 3
- Thread starter Jonb127
- Start date
When you don't know what you're talking about, it's okay not to talk.
I disagree. Every morning an EV driver leaves his garage with 240 miles of driving capacity. No need to recharge 95% of the days. On those 5%, you use the supercharging network and charge 40 minutes while you take a break. Now, when they get to 500 mile capacity batteries, very few people will even need to charge on the road. That will be the game changer, not charging time.
I won't be close to a buyer until that happens. 40 minute break on a road trip isn't gonna work.
Don't forget - you don't spend the 10 minutes per week on going to the gas station for full ups.
I'm fine with it for commutes to work. Road trips for me is all about speed from a to b. And 40 minutes is just too long especially several times a trip.
I disagree. I think it's here now. Although obviously you can design a new computer faster than a new car, when people buy, they will look at what is newest and greatest. I won't consider a gen 1 Volt or Leaf, and yet those cars still have lots of usable life left. Down here at any rate, the price of the used Leafs drops off pretty radically once they are five years old, and kiwis tend to keep their cars forever.
I think current gas stations will soon have charging stations with them, and a coffee shop with upmarket coffees and danish, which will become another profit center for them.
And maintenance will go way down. it's coming. Soon.
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New computers don't change, radically, year over year. The incremental changes are just that.
And computers cost as little as a couple hundred bucks, now. Cars are expensive. There's no economics to support them being a one year commodity.
Soon? HA! We both will be long gone by the time EVs are the majority of vehicles on the road. This is still just a tree huggers dream.
I don't think you're getting my point. I don't think people will go out and buy a new electric car when a new model comes out if they already have a perfectly good one (as they might with a computer).
What I'm saying is that when people do think about buying a car, they are going to want the one with increased range, better battery life, advanced electronics, etc. Hence, they won't be all that attracted to an electric car that is five years old. Right now a five year old used car with low mileage is a very attractive vehicle to many buyers. A brand new version of that car wouldn't be all that different from the five year old car. But that won't be true of electric vehicles for a long time. The newer version will be a far better car. And as a consequence, I'm guessing prices for used electrics will drop off more rapidly than used ICE cars (for the foreseeable future).
I hadn't thought about this until I started looking at ECs. I sure as hell don't want a 2012 Leaf. Range not as good and the battery has five years on it. And from prices down here, most others are with me (and kiwis are about as thrifty a people as they come -- many of Scots ancestry).
Numb3rs has a good point about leasing/sharing. Might be what is to come. I would think companies wouldn't want to lease ECs, but we'll see.
I think you're underestimating the level of change over 5 years in IC vehicles.
In 2012, cars had a very low penetration of things like backup camera and collision warning systems. Blind spot monitoring was only found on a couple of production vehicles. The last-gen of every popular luxury sport sedan was 180-300 lbs heavier than the current gen. They were less powerful. There was no penetration of 8 and 9-speed automatic transmissions. DSGs were limited to exotic sports cars. There was no Apple Carplay. GPS systems were a very expensive option on mostly expensive cars and weren't very good.
And they go into the secondary market at 2 and 3 years, anyway. The used market in the U.S. is dominated by CPO programs that resell cars coming off lease.
I submit that if there's a similar rate of change among EVs then there will be a similar level of buyer enthusiasm in the pre-owned market.
Where EVVs (electric vehicle values!) get crushed is when they approach the end of their useful battery life. In that respect they'll be exactly like boats or airplanes - a prospective buyer is looking at an immediate outlay worth, in some cases, about half the value of the vehicle. Manufacturers are going to want to be very aggressive in managing that process, because the looming prospect of crashing resale values will discourage a significant number of buyers.
They don't have that level of choice, though. To use the example about the Nissan Leaf - the first one came out in 2010. Generation 2 will debut (not launch on the market, just make its first official appearance) in September. Eight year development cycle. There have been incremental changes between, but nothing game-changing that would make the previous MY obsolete. Waiting for the next one makes sense this year, but not so much a couple years ago.
The Chevy Volt cycle was quicker, but still five years without anything groundbreaking in between.
While they've quickened things, automakers aren't set up to have mobile device-speed development cycles,
It will be interesting to see what they do about batteries in the used market. Near as I can tell, they've just been crossing their fingers hoping batteries will drop in price enough when the time comes to drop a brand-new one in without jacking the price way up.
And, hey - It was my damn point about the leasing/sharing :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:. I really like the idea of paying a lease to access a professionally maintained fleet of vehicles running the gamut from roadster to big utility barges (and maybe some utes for you REAL Southern folks : ). But that's mostly because I don't need a personal daily commuter.
The day when there is nothing but electric robot cars can't come soon enough.
People are talking about long range trips like they go cross country every day. The range thing is a complete non issue. It'll be 300-400 miles soon. I'm flying if it's that far.
People are talking about long range trips like they go cross country every day. The range thing is a complete non issue. It'll be 300-400 miles soon. I'm flying if it's that far.
I do trips over 200 miles usually at least once a month and drive to Florida at least once a year. Driving is fun for me. Also unless I become independently wealthy I won't buy a car for over 25 at the very maximum ever again. I would prefer to keep it under 20k.
You are a public service, t. As long as we have you, none of us have to worry about being the last guy to figure it out.
I lease a 2017 GMC Trerain. My fourth Terrain btw. (Love them). My next one is 2020. I was invited to a Cadillac venue a few months ago at Giants stadium, and drove several Cadillacs with advanced features including auto parking, night vision, anti collision (for lack of a better term) Etc. the salesperson told me that by 2020, when my lease is up, Cadillac (maybe GMC) will have at least one car capable of auto drive. I'll sit in the back seat with a beer or a glass of wine and enjoy the ride to the Rutgers game and back. The technology is awesome and I'm looking forward to it. I have a lot of friends that are opposed to it and yes, I still miss my burgundy 62 Chevy convertible - 327 CI,
350 hp 4 speed hurst, position traction rear muscle car but I'm ready for change...
350 hp 4 speed hurst, position traction rear muscle car but I'm ready for change...
I will enjoy my EV when I enjoy fusion powering my home. I know you have seen a lot of changes in your lifetime - smart phones, computers, TVs, automobiles (or as you called them, horseless carriages), and the telegraph, but the car market will not be changing any time soon.
So don't fall for any scam investment opportunity. Bad people target your age demo.
? The Gen 2 Leaf came out in 2012. And the Chevy Volt Gen 2 came out in 2015, five years after the initial Volts. That's what I'm talking about. Each with meaningful upgrades over the original.
Think about it this way. A decently made car last 12-15 years and has maybe three owners. A decently made computer lasts 3-4 years and only has one owner. Right now there is more demand for the electric car than there are ones available. That's part of why the Tesla 3 has 500,000 on order. So, in thinking about losing value due to technological advances, we have to think over a longer span, and multiple sales. My point is that, right now, your garden variety 10-15 year old car basically gets the same mileage, has fundamentally the same features (admittedly some drop off in technology) as a new(er) car. But with ECs, a five year old car will have less range, slower charge, older battery, etc., than a new one. So there will be a technology loss cost to go with ECs that we don't see in ICE cars.
And btw, I keep you and Numb3rs in the same place in my head: Guys who know what they are talking about, not ideologically rigid, and not prone to irrationality. It's a good place.
I change with the times, t. You're the troglodyte here. But good to see that you've upgraded from fission to fusion within the last couple of hours! Good on ya mate!
92% of Americans commute less than 64 miles a day. Your "ever" part is somewhat correct but there are charging stations popping up all over, heck RU has a ton of them. Also I would think in this day and age most families ( unless you live in a large city) have two cars.
My wife commutes to RU every day , 80 miles roundtrip. She has a charging station in the lot she parks in if ever needed. I have a larger car then we use all the time if we go out together. I have no doubt the range will increase year by year. We don't need a new car yet but when we do we will look into getting an EC.
Not really, you still believe in the failed policies of your politics. That's more important than the next gadget. FYI, US cars sales in 2016:
IC cars - 17,500,000
EV cars - 150,000
The left has been talking about the revolution of electric cars since GM's EV1. So that's already 20 years and counting. How much longer? Make a prediction, when will EV's sell more than ICV's?
Leaf had the usual mid-cycle refreshes and improvements, but the 2018 model will be the debut of the second generation. Not a huge point of contention since it did get a nice mileage boost during the most recent update, with the larger battery option (107 miles EPA vs 84). I don't/didn't consider it a game-changing number, like some of the 200+ mile predictions for MY2018, since it basically just got the Leaf up to speed with some others (and still behind the Chevy Bolt, which followed shortly thereafter). But combined with the issue of a used battery, you might be right that buyers would steer away from MY15s and earlier and toward MY2016. (US model years, not sure if they differ in N Zealand).
I originally took your point to be a "new car every year, like a smartphone," but I see more of what you're saying now. Definitely some big distinctions between ICE and electric cars that will be interesting to watch. Also interesting watching automakers rebranding themselves as "mobility companies," and the landscape changes that will entail. Automakers didn't like taking the back seat to mobile tech co's, as far as coveted, headline-making products, but they're about to create a much more interesting and watched market.
I enjoy Numbers posts and often agree with him, just as I do yours, so compliment taken
.Doubling down on idiocy. At least no one will call you a flip-flopper. Or insightful.
Still desperately cherry-picking dates to try to justify the unjustifiable? Good to know some things never change (btw, I've been out of the state for a while, how did that "Chris Christie is going to be President" thing work out for you? You Secretary of State yet?)
Bloomberg projects in 20 years. I'm a bit more bullish than that. EVs have basically been really available since about 2010 with the PHEV Volt and the Leaf. But now just about every major manufacturer makes them and the overwhelming demand for the Tesla 3 shows that Americans are ready for this. So I'd guess closer to 15 years as a conservative estimate, and as soon as 10 years if there is another battery breakthrough.
I hear your boy Trump is working on a coal-fired car. The future is just around the corner, t. Get on board.
I am a believer in the 15/250 model. 15 minutes to recharge or swap out the battery and 250 miles in range. Today using an EV requires more planning to use than a gas powered car.
[roll]
Love ya Skillet, you are always good for a chuckle! 10-15 years. Priceless.
I pre-ordered one on the first day because I think it's the future and I like the step getting away from fossil fuels (how electricity is produced aside). I'm still very unsure about the reliability of these things and how much I will really be saving charging at the house. I'm like #125k on the list so I'm hoping I can get some intel from the first 100k in production to help me make the decision.
Plugin Hybrids will allow people to have their cake and eat it too. In the future pure gas cars will be like manual sticks are today, just there for hobbyists who still want one. Lambos and such will still be pure gas but most cars will be either hybrids, hybrids/plugins and pure plugins. That is the way Auto-Tech is moving. I can see that happening within 20 years. Not to mention driver-less cars, buses and trucks. There will be a gen that only know driver-less cars, trucks, buses. They will look at the cars that you drive the same way we look like horse drawn anything today. Don't know how long that will take but it will happen at some point.
But about Model 3, if you order one now, you should get it back in end of 2018.
But about Model 3, if you order one now, you should get it back in end of 2018.
What about heavy duty pick ups. Can electric handle towing trailers and such for landscapers and other business purposes. Legit question. I don't know much about electric vehicles other then their range limits that put me out of the market.
I have to lol at this. Have you ever seen a drive thru where you had to wait 45 seconds for your stuff to be done? Guns have been drawn for 30 seconds! lol
waiting for charge is not an option in today's, 'every second matters' mentality. Maybe the concept of 'gas station' changes and we put charging ports outside of malls etc
Read this:
Trucking Industry Poised for Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Growth
https://www.trucks.com/2017/05/05/trucking-industry-electric-heavy-duty-truck-growth/
let's see how the practical application of this plays out. No way electric can do what diesel rigs are doing and for duration
The issue with Tesla right now is the infrastructure for charging stations (as mentioned). For daily driving where you have a charging station near or at home it is no big deal.
For the road trip you need to plan out where to charge. Right now many of the rest stops in Westchester and CT have charging stations. NJ is a little behind right now.
Until rest stops and restaurants get them they will be an issue.
For a road trip if you can drive 150 miles (on the 200 mile version) and then stop for a break (bathroom and meal) you should be close to 100% charged. 150 miles is roughly 2 to 3 hours. The 300 mile version may last 4 hours on a road trip.
If you are driving from NJ to Ohio or Indiana for a college visit (maybe a football game) you may be looking at 500-800 miles which can be 9-12 hours. This trip may require 5 to 7 stops in the 200 mile range Tesla. A typical car that gets 350 miles per tank may only require 1 to 3 stops.
Even a trip from central NJ to Philly or AC may be 90-100 miles each way were you need a charge on the way.
I am personally surprised that retail and food service places have not added charging stations. If a Kohls or target had them they may get a few extra customers. If a Houlihans or Fridays added them they would get customers too. Gyms, bookstores, and supermarkets are also good locations for them. There are a lot of people who may want an EV car but live in a location where they can't add a charging station (condos, townhouses, higher costs apartments, etc...
then again many hotels don't even offer charging stations. I would think Hilton and Marriott would be all over this for travelers who may need a charge because of the distance from home.
And when I say charging stations, they don't need to be free ones but ones where customers pay.
For the road trip you need to plan out where to charge. Right now many of the rest stops in Westchester and CT have charging stations. NJ is a little behind right now.
Until rest stops and restaurants get them they will be an issue.
For a road trip if you can drive 150 miles (on the 200 mile version) and then stop for a break (bathroom and meal) you should be close to 100% charged. 150 miles is roughly 2 to 3 hours. The 300 mile version may last 4 hours on a road trip.
If you are driving from NJ to Ohio or Indiana for a college visit (maybe a football game) you may be looking at 500-800 miles which can be 9-12 hours. This trip may require 5 to 7 stops in the 200 mile range Tesla. A typical car that gets 350 miles per tank may only require 1 to 3 stops.
Even a trip from central NJ to Philly or AC may be 90-100 miles each way were you need a charge on the way.
I am personally surprised that retail and food service places have not added charging stations. If a Kohls or target had them they may get a few extra customers. If a Houlihans or Fridays added them they would get customers too. Gyms, bookstores, and supermarkets are also good locations for them. There are a lot of people who may want an EV car but live in a location where they can't add a charging station (condos, townhouses, higher costs apartments, etc...
then again many hotels don't even offer charging stations. I would think Hilton and Marriott would be all over this for travelers who may need a charge because of the distance from home.
And when I say charging stations, they don't need to be free ones but ones where customers pay.
You will see on this map that they are popping up at retail, hotels and food locations. Perfect example is a Supercharger at the Outlets in Tinton Falls. This map does not include charging stations the are generic.
https://www.tesla.com/findus#/bound...arger,&name=usa&place=tintonfallssupercharger