OT: Kentucky Derby Predictions

[RU31trap]

I know there is no real standout this year but I would like to hear your picks. I think these guys are going to be in the mix.

1. Irish War Cry (Jersey Bred-Colts Neck)
2. Patch (I really believe he has a shot at 1 1/4 miles)
3. Classic Empire (deserves respect)
4. Always Dreaming (can't dismiss)

 

[RUBigFrank]

Interestingly - the owners of Irish War Cry are stating that the Derby is a prep to the Haskell (note that they are descendants of Amory Haskell)

 

[RU31trap]

Interestingly - the owners of Irish War Cry are stating that the Derby is a prep to the Haskell (note that they are descendants of Amory Haskell)

Yes, I heard that as well. The owner of the horse I believe is his granddaughter.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Would be good for the NJ horse industry if Irish War Cry can place in the money (if not win).

 

[Jumba72]

There are no standouts here. Every entry has thrown in an absolute clunker. In rough order of point totals...

1)Girvin. Trainer, Sharp is anything but. Has had an odd work schedule, and beat up on bad New Orleans nags. Pass.
2)Gormley. Has taken over what's left of the West coast division after Mastery went down. Hasn't done anything wrong but for me to bet him I have to admit that Baffert's injured runner is the best. No thanks.
3)Classic Empire. Looks most consistent but will be short on odds.<br />
Not a Casse fan on dirt. Yet. Same for the jockey. Only on turf with these connections, for now.
4)Irap. Ignore anything from this owner/trainer/jockey combo at your own peril. The odds will be nice
5)Gunnevera. Never heard of his trainer and his workouts didn't inspire. Deep closer and jockey Castellano goes into HOF this year. At the right price, maybe 15-1...
6)Irish War Cry. Jersey bred. Not a fan of his human connections. Only one blip on his short record, though.
7)Always Dreaming. How great would it be to win it with Bodemiester's first crop? Baffert could only manage 2nd with his sire. Has shown some odd training antics for Pletcher but seems to have figured things out since. Stalking style is ideal. The pick!<br />
8)Looking At Lee. These last 2 got in after scratches. Has met some of these at various tracks and always seems to fire. Hates to win but can he get his first for the roses? Had excuses in a couple. Maybe a bomb.
9)Sonneteer. Gotta love the Desormeaux brothers after their Exaggerator campaign. Deep closer but had every chance to qualify outright in last. And now news that Kent will stay in Cali.
When the post positions are drawn wed eve I'll have an idea of what my tickets will look like.

 

[WhiteBus]

How can you not be a fan of Irish War Cry's "human connections"?? Isabella de Tomaso is the Queen of NJ thoroughbred racing along with her sister Hope Jones. Daughters of Amory Haskell who founded Monmouth Park. The family continues to support breeding in NJ long after their fathers death. I cant think of better person to root for this coming Saturday.
As far as Trainer and Jockey. Motion is a solid as they come and Rajiv isnt going to make a mistake. Solid connections all around

I do agree there isnt a standout favorite this year. Classic Empire should have been but foot problems kept him out for awhile.


Anyway Ill be rooting hard for Irish War Cry.

 

[RUBigFrank]

He may have meant the trainer.

 

[RU31trap]

How can you not be a fan of Irish War Cry's "human connections"?? Isabella de Tomaso is the Queen of NJ thoroughbred racing along with her sister Hope Jones. Daughters of Amory Haskell who founded Monmouth Park. The family continues to support breeding in NJ long after their fathers death. I cant think of better person to root for this coming Saturday.
As far as Trainer and Jockey. Motion is a solid as they come and Rajiv isnt going to make a mistake. Solid connections all around

I do agree there isnt a standout favorite this year. Classic Empire should have been but foot problems kept him out for awhile.


Anyway Ill be rooting hard for Irish War Cry.

I'm with you 100% WhiteBus. Both the little lady and I will be pulling for IWC this Saturday. We went to see him at Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial. I agree that Motion is a solid trainer and I also like Rajiv. Truly would be great for NJ thoroughbred racing.

 

[WhiteBus]

He may have meant the trainer.

As i said above Graham Motion is as solid a trainer thats out there. Former Kentucky Derby winner and won multiple Breeders Cup races

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Guneverra and his owners have a great backstory in Venezuela..At 15-1 I may be use him in some exotics and a toss in on top.

 

[Rutgers1976]

Nothing wrong with Irish War Cry and the NJ connection. Patch is a nice sentimental favorite, albeit a long shot--lost an eye last year surgically from some unknown ailment. His name has nothing to do with the missing eyeball.

 

[RU at the shore]

Think that Looking at Lee is ready to step up

 

[Jumba72]

Graham Motion? He doesn't have very many major racing wins, aside from Animal Kingdom 8yrs ago. The owner's story is cute, using the Derby as a prep for the Haskel. Good for them if they win. I'm sure they're great people and deserving. When a horseplayer "likes" something he is looking to bet on it. If they win I lose.

 

[WhiteBus]

Graham Motion? He doesn't have very many major racing wins, aside from Animal Kingdom 8yrs ago. The owner's story is cute, using the Derby as a prep for the Haskel. Good for them if they win. I'm sure they're great people and deserving. When a horseplayer "likes" something he is looking to bet on it. If they win I lose.

First off any Trainer that has a Derby win and multiple Breeders Cup wins puts him in a small company of solid Trainers.
As for your cute comment. You have no idea how important the Haskell family is to NJ racing and breeding.
My comments above are not from a gambling viewpoint. They are from a NJ horse racing success standpoint. There is no one bigger than Amory Haskell. His daughters are horse racing royalty in NJ. No one is bigger. No one deserves to be supported more by anyone with NJ ties.
You can root for who any horse you want to but do not disrespect Isabella de Tomaso if you are from NJ. This isnt a cute side story. This is a family that is more important to the horse racing industry in NJ than any other 100 families combined.
Everyone on the backstretch at Monmouth would be thrilled if her connections can win Saturday.
And yes Isabella and her sister Hope Jones are absolutely wonderful ladies. You would be impressed and smitten how friendly they are to racing fans.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Bus Well done sir. I spent 14 years attending opning days at Del Mar and have walked the hallowed grounds of Saratoga many an August fay.. The families who devote their lived to this beautiful sport are considered royalty.

 

[hunterm93]

Would love for Irish Way Cry to win the triple crown and then run the Haskell. That would would be scary how big the crowd at the Haskell would be. When American Pharaoh ran in 2015 they were predicting 70,000 but scared people off with the crowd estimates and there was probably only 40,000-45,000. Like Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry and Gunnevara and still debating on my 4th for the Superfecta bet.

 

[WhiteBus]

Bus Well done sir. I spent 14 years attending opning days at Del Mar and have walked the hallowed grounds of Saratoga many an August fay.. The families who devote their lived to this beautiful sport are considered royalty.

I'm glad someone understands. To poo poo anyone it that industry is a complete joke. I too make an annual treck to the Summer Place to Be. A beautiful town. A historic race track.
The people that are involved, no matter what their success work their *** off.
Glad you understand

 

[Jumba72]

First off any Trainer that has a Derby win and multiple Breeders Cup wins puts him in a small company of solid Trainers.
As for your cute comment. You have no idea how important the Haskell family is to NJ racing and breeding.
My comments above are not from a gambling viewpoint. They are from a NJ horse racing success standpoint. There is no one bigger than Amory Haskell. His daughters are horse racing royalty in NJ. No one is bigger. No one deserves to be supported more by anyone with NJ ties.
You can root for who any horse you want to but do not disrespect Isabella de Tomaso if you are from NJ. This isnt a cute side story. This is a family that is more important to the horse racing industry in NJ than any other 100 families combined.
Everyone on the backstretch at Monmouth would be thrilled if her connections can win Saturday.
And yes Isabella and her sister Hope Jones are absolutely wonderful ladies. You would be impressed and smitten how friendly they are to racing fans.

Such drama. Yes I'm sure Isabella was totally serious to suggest the Derby as a Haskel prep. Not cute or playful at all. If she wins I'll be sure to congratulate her at The Haskel. I often bet Motion's entries, especially from the Augustin Stables on the grass. I really hope no one is disrespected if they're not on my tickets saturday. Good luck to all players.

 

[WhiteBus]

Such drama. Yes I'm sure Isabella was totally serious to suggest the Derby as a Haskel prep. Not cute or playful at all. If she wins I'll be sure to congratulate her at The Haskel. I often bet Motion's entries, especially from the Augustin Stables on the grass. I really hope no one is disrespected if they're not on my tickets saturday. Good luck to all players.

The difference between you and me is that you are a simple gambler. I have no issue with that.
My viewpoint is dramatically different.
I am no longer a fan of the sport from a gambling side. Although I still bet. But your narrow viewpoint is shallow as the game is about the people that are involved. My love of the sport is dramatically different than yours. To each his own

 

[Jumba72]

Without gambling you don't have the sport. Narrow that down. You won't find me at The Hunt but I might have another Derby or two left in me.

 

[WhiteBus]

Without gambling you don't have the sport. Narrow that down. You won't find me at The Hunt but I might have another Derby or two left in me.

Without the Haskell's, trainers and jockeys you dont have a sport to gamble on. Very few of them earn a decent living. Many do it for the love of the sport. Degenerate gamblers only look at it from winning and losing, mostly losing. People like myself who have a love of the sport get way more out of it than people like you.

 

[famousbill19]

Don't overlook Hence. Go back and watch the Sunland Derby where he circled the field to beat Conquest Mo Money and Irap easily, putting up I believe the best Beyer of any horse in the KD field.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Will be rooting hard for Irish War Cry

Overbrook Farm stables is only a half mile from my house

 

[RU31trap]

Not sure how to bet this race. The 20 horse field makes it very difficult to handicap and my $12-$20 bet only gets me a limited number of combinations.

 

[Jumba72]

Without the Haskell's, trainers and jockeys you dont have a sport to gamble on. Very few of them earn a decent living. Many do it for the love of the sport. Degenerate gamblers only look at it from winning and losing, mostly losing. People like myself who have a love of the sport get way more out of it than people like you.

Degenerate gambler? I can well afford to lose one of the only wagers I'll make the entire year. It means a lot more to the human connections for these horses then to me cashing a parimutuel. I'll try to put it more simply, we are merely offering an opinion on who will win. Nice story by Jerry Izenberg in today's rag. I hope the NJ people win. They deserve to celebrate.

 

[Jumba72]

RU31trap, in a couple hours the TicketMaker calculator should be set up on DRF.COM for the Derby. Search it out on their website. This will help you play several combinations with your choices.

 

[MozRU]

A "sport" I just will never understand (granted I never took the time to read about it). Never understood the allure to care.

What is the average age of people who follow this sport?

 

[RU31trap]

I "sport" I just will never understand (granted I never took the time to read about it). Never understood the allure to care.

What is the average age of people who follow this sport?

At the bigger venues like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont the average age is around 30(ish). I guess because it's a huge party scene. When I went to the Kentucky Derby in 2011 it was one of the most intimidating weekends in my entire life. Approximately, 3.5 million people make their way to Louisville for the event and only 145,000 had tickets to the actual track. Every house for a solid mile had 5-8 cars parked on the front lawns. Then, they shut down a street for a 1/2 mile where the exclusive hotels, bars and shops are located. I watched a show that compared the biggest sporting events in the USA once and they said the KD generates 3 times the revenue than any Super Bowl solely based on the event (no advertisements).

At the Preakness where I go to every year the average age is more like 25 (ish) due to the inner track concert and private party's that are sponsored by Grey Goose, Absolute, Rolex and Longines just to name a few. The Preakness gets about 130,000 fans.

Finally, at the Belmont where it is more of a no nonsense atmosphere the average age goes up to about 38 (ish). No parties and no infield activity keeps many of the younger kids away. The Belmont on average attracts 90,000 fans.

 

[famousbill19]

I "sport" I just will never understand (granted I never took the time to read about it). Never understood the allure to care.

What is the average age of people who follow this sport?

Personally, the allure is the handicapping, but not for the reasons you might think. I do not care about the money- I rarely bet more than $50 a day. For me it is preparing for the races- reading the form, watching past performances, trying to anticipate how the race will shape up, what trainers/jockeys are in form, debating it with my buddies- then seeing if my assessments were correct. Pair that with beautiful weather in Saratoga (or even Monmouth), beer and a burger- ideal summer day for me. Cannot wait until Labor Day weekend.

 

[LadyRU09]

At the Preakness where I go to every year the average age is more like 25 (ish) due to the inner track concert and private party's that are sponsored by Grey Goose, Absolute, Rolex and Longines just to name a few. The Preakness gets about 130,000 fans.

Finally, at the Belmont where it is more of a no nonsense atmosphere the average age goes up to about 38 (ish). No parties and no infield activity keeps many of the younger kids away. The Belmont on average attracts 90,000 fans.

I went to the Preakness seven years ago and thought the infield party was like Rutgersfest on steroids minus the violence.

Is the Belmont estimate for when there's a Triple Crown on the line or not?

 

[wicker]

Always Dreaming, McCraken and Gunnevera get my backing

 

[Plum Street]

Personally, the allure is the handicapping, but not for the reasons you might think. I do not care about the money- I rarely bet more than $50 a day. For me it is preparing for the races- reading the form, watching past performances, trying to anticipate how the race will shape up, what trainers/jockeys are in form, debating it with my buddies- then seeing if my assessments were correct. Pair that with beautiful weather in Saratoga (or even Monmouth), beer and a burger- ideal summer day for me. Cannot wait until Labor Day weekend.

I agree. And then just sometimes I resort to betting on a horse because I like the name etc. I assume you mean you can't wait for Memorial Day!

 

[famousbill19]

I agree. And then just sometimes I resort to betting on a horse because I like the name etc. I assume you mean you can't wait for Memorial Day!

Well, yes, because I love the summer, but I will be up at Saratoga for Labor Day weekend, which is the last weekend of the meet. Much slower paced than Travers weekend, but still with some great racing cards.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

I wish Monmouth was open for live dates starting this week in time for the tri crown events. As a former degenerate horse player, nevet got the whole dice and cards thing,I only play in May and the Breeders Cup so I am getting greater joy out of it now than when I knew the names of th regular knuckleheads at DelMar.

 

[RU31trap]

I went to the Preakness seven years ago and thought the infield party was like Rutgersfest on steroids minus the violence.

Is the Belmont estimate for when there's a Triple Crown on the line or not?

Nice catch Lady RU. I believe the number of the turnout in a non-Triple Crown year could be at low as 75K-80K. When American Pharoh won the Triple Crown they capped it 90K.

I will have to defer to White Bus on the following:
Some (@&$¥£€) called and made a death threat to the Zayat family as well as threaten the horse. So on that Year Belmont agreed to cap capacity to 90,000. There were well over 100 armed personnel with AR15 patrolling the grounds and 10 guys on the roof with what I thought looked like sniper rifles. My girlfriend and I do a little tailgating mid morning and two very young NY State Troopers respectfully asked us to pack it in when they smelled two espressos and saw a small box of mini cannoli's. They smiled and said you could go ahead a finish up.

 

[WhiteBus]

I wish Monmouth was open for live dates starting this week in time for the tri crown events. As a former degenerate horse player, nevet got the whole dice and cards thing,I only play in May and the Breeders Cup so I am getting greater joy out of it now than when I knew the names of th regular knuckleheads at DelMar.

Monmouth Park will not be open on the 4th of July for the first time in over 25 years.

 

[Southern Gentleman]

No one compares to Secretariat!

Bug I will go with Classic Empire, the Arkansas Derby winner.

 

[RU31trap]

Monmouth Park will not be open on the 4th of July for the first time in over 25 years.

Was a reason given?

 

[RUchip]

Irish War Craft has 0 shot at winning. Ran against much weaker competiton. No NJ horse has ever won the Derby. Not a homer and realize this horse has no chance. These are the best of the best in this race gentlemen.

 

[WhiteBus]

Irish War Craft has 0 shot at winning. Ran against much weaker competiton. No NJ horse has ever won the Derby. Not a homer and realize this horse has no chance. These are the best of the best in this race gentlemen.

Normally the hasn't run againt anyone is a good angle but not this year as nobody has run against a quality field. This is a poor crop of 3 year olds and all of the favorities have had at least one awful race this year.