I am not even saying we are better than anyone in the big ten, but I would say if Johnson is who we have been told he is and the team stays healthy we are close to the bottom four or five teams in the conference. 8-3 out of conference and 6 big ten wins should be expected. I have to see the schedule though and in particular who we get at home.
Caleb and Cody Martin
- Thread starter Michstfr
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Seals
Even if they are that good...and we don't know yet
If those two guards are averaging 35 ppg we are in trouble
We need balance from the front court
Getting 35 ppg from the backcourt in total including Williams and a fourth guard is a ,ore reasonable goal...and that may be a bit high out of the 40 mpg from the 1 and 2 spots
Even if they are that good...and we don't know yet
If those two guards are averaging 35 ppg we are in trouble
We need balance from the front court
Getting 35 ppg from the backcourt in total including Williams and a fourth guard is a ,ore reasonable goal...and that may be a bit high out of the 40 mpg from the 1 and 2 spots
Nigel Johnson was the best player I saw wearing a Rutgers uniform last season.
Progress with Doorson is something to keep an eye on too. Hearing very good things.
Progress with Doorson is something to keep an eye on too. Hearing very good things.
Sanders averaged 16 last year. If he doesn't improve and Johnson is the exact same thats 32 right there
Ok here's the thing...you guys a professing worst talent in the B1G when you have seen zero of Johnson and very little of Freeman (and also Diallo and Doorson). In fact the only person who you know on this starting 5 is Sanders, who was a 16 ppg player, and Laurent, who was doing really well at the end of the season. Goode, Lewis (although because of injury), Greer, Daniels, even Foreman in some ways, all players who had major warts and contributed to the "worst talent" theory, are all gone. In comes Nigel Johnson, who BK said above was the best player in a Rutgers uniform last year, and a healthy Freeman, who everyone has touted how great he is and was averaging 12.6 ppg before he got injured. I am not saying anywhere close to tops in the league, and I admit our depth is a huge problem. But its like people think this is worst talent when you haven't even seen the talent. I'm not going by just assuming the worst. When I haven't seen with my own eyes I go by people who know more than I. And they are all saying this teams talent level will be much much better.
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But Freeman is the third piece to this and gives you that balance. I have heard someone say Kadeem Jack level offensive production out of him, which I would think that is what you are looking for. And also if you include Williams that number is way way low, I would believe we will be using three guard sets many times, so think 90 min instead of 80 min for guards. It will be easily north of 40 ppg.
I agree re Nigel Johnson. 95% of the people on this board will be pleasantly surprised wiht this kid. This team will compete next year on a nightly basis
Hope the Martin brothers decide to pull the trigger with RU - would be great to have them in practice this year and on the active roster in 2017-18.
That said, to the parallel discussion going on in this thread, next year's team has deficits.
At center, we have two unknown quantities - neither of which have seen any real time on the floor against real competition. That's not a recipe for success in the Big Ten.
At power forward, we have Freeman - who was showing some real potential before getting hurt, which was his second injury in two years, I believe. If he can stay healthy, he might be able to provide us with some strength there. Sa is our backup here, and hasn't seen any time in Div I.
A small forward, we have a couple options, but both are young and neither have proven themselves. Laurent showed flashes last year, and hopefully improves as a sophomore. Thiam will also press for time.
Our strength is at guard right now, with Sanders/Johnson looking to be the starting duo, and Williams the first off the bench and Bullock providing more depth. Sanders has shown he can play at this level, and should improve with better coaching and more players around him. Johnson is an unknown, but we've heard positive things. Williams had his moments last year, and hopefully will improve and become more consistent.
We really don't have a lot of game experience going into next season. The only player who has seen more than 1000 Div-I court minutes is Williams (61 games, 1510 minutes). Two more have seen more than 700, Johnson (62 games, 986 minutes) and Sanders (27 games, 905 minutes). Of the remaining players, only Laurent (27 games, 655 minutes) has seen more than 300.
(Edit to put Sa at PF instead of SF, per comments below)
That said, to the parallel discussion going on in this thread, next year's team has deficits.
At center, we have two unknown quantities - neither of which have seen any real time on the floor against real competition. That's not a recipe for success in the Big Ten.
At power forward, we have Freeman - who was showing some real potential before getting hurt, which was his second injury in two years, I believe. If he can stay healthy, he might be able to provide us with some strength there. Sa is our backup here, and hasn't seen any time in Div I.
A small forward, we have a couple options, but both are young and neither have proven themselves. Laurent showed flashes last year, and hopefully improves as a sophomore. Thiam will also press for time.
Our strength is at guard right now, with Sanders/Johnson looking to be the starting duo, and Williams the first off the bench and Bullock providing more depth. Sanders has shown he can play at this level, and should improve with better coaching and more players around him. Johnson is an unknown, but we've heard positive things. Williams had his moments last year, and hopefully will improve and become more consistent.
We really don't have a lot of game experience going into next season. The only player who has seen more than 1000 Div-I court minutes is Williams (61 games, 1510 minutes). Two more have seen more than 700, Johnson (62 games, 986 minutes) and Sanders (27 games, 905 minutes). Of the remaining players, only Laurent (27 games, 655 minutes) has seen more than 300.
(Edit to put Sa at PF instead of SF, per comments below)
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People keep talking about Centers. The college game is not about big bruising centers in the low post. Not even the so-called BIG bad Big 10. The B1G had 3 centers average over 10 ppg. Two of those are leaving college. Most teams get about 10-15 points per game from the center position.
Doorson and Diallo will get a combined 10 points from the center position, more on some nights.
In terms of rebounding and defense.....Doorson and Diallo will do just fine. Especially Doorson, He played well as a true freshmen. Maybe people forgot.
Doorson and Diallo will get a combined 10 points from the center position, more on some nights.
In terms of rebounding and defense.....Doorson and Diallo will do just fine. Especially Doorson, He played well as a true freshmen. Maybe people forgot.
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I don't see the center position capturing enough minutes a night to score more than 10PPG....in some matchups, perhaps they get to double digits, but Doorson and Diallo are a long way from being considered a reliable tandem on both ends of the court to score, defend, run, stay out of foul trouble....they need to average 10RPG and keep teams off the glass more than scoring.
Sa is the key along with Freeman....if both are healthy and can contribute, I can see a lot of lineups where they both play upfront and both hopefully are healthy enough to give us 25 Minutes a night. They are the players with the footspeed and athleticism to switch on defense and get to the backboards.
I am excited at the thoughts that we get the Martin twins, but Thiam really has the skill set to make this team more than a guard-oriented offense. If he joins RU, we will have options up front...if we have Thiam and the twins the following year, Pikiell will have a complete rotation with Thiam and Freeman/Sa, to defend, run and get on the glass.
If you squeezed 25 MPG out of the center position between Diallo and Doorson, you take it and run with it. 12 to 13 minutes for each is where you don't ask too much of either player and if one performs better than the other, you ride that player a little more.
Sa is the key along with Freeman....if both are healthy and can contribute, I can see a lot of lineups where they both play upfront and both hopefully are healthy enough to give us 25 Minutes a night. They are the players with the footspeed and athleticism to switch on defense and get to the backboards.
I am excited at the thoughts that we get the Martin twins, but Thiam really has the skill set to make this team more than a guard-oriented offense. If he joins RU, we will have options up front...if we have Thiam and the twins the following year, Pikiell will have a complete rotation with Thiam and Freeman/Sa, to defend, run and get on the glass.
If you squeezed 25 MPG out of the center position between Diallo and Doorson, you take it and run with it. 12 to 13 minutes for each is where you don't ask too much of either player and if one performs better than the other, you ride that player a little more.
Lot of ifs. What was it Don Meredith used to say on Monday Nite Football?? If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas. Will settle for a team that is ready to play, has a flexible plan, plays hard and the individual players improve as the year goes on. A couple of legit B1G wins, and most of the OOC games. Ten wins total with the promise of reinforcements. Twelve outside.
TL
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Went by Rivals having Sa as a SF, rather than a PF. So we have Freeman at PF, with Sa backing him up... and Laurent/Thiam at the SF spot. Still very thin on experience all around, and banking a lot on players we haven't seen play at this level.
As for centers, the game has largely moved away from the days of the dominant big man underneath. They are still valuable for defense and rebounds, but they're less called upon to be offensive threats. Either way, we have four "big men" that are expected to be our PF/C positions (Doorson, Diallo, Freeman, Sa... five if you add in Thiam at 6-9,180)... and none of them have seen any real time on the court.
Doorson: 298 min, 29 games (41 fouls, 13 blocks, 64 rbs)
Diallo: 219 min, 14 games (41 fouls, 7 blocks, 47 rbs)
Freeman: 216 min, 8 games (19 fouls, 8 blocks, 39 rbs)
Sa: n/a
Thiam: n/a
As for centers, the game has largely moved away from the days of the dominant big man underneath. They are still valuable for defense and rebounds, but they're less called upon to be offensive threats. Either way, we have four "big men" that are expected to be our PF/C positions (Doorson, Diallo, Freeman, Sa... five if you add in Thiam at 6-9,180)... and none of them have seen any real time on the court.
Doorson: 298 min, 29 games (41 fouls, 13 blocks, 64 rbs)
Diallo: 219 min, 14 games (41 fouls, 7 blocks, 47 rbs)
Freeman: 216 min, 8 games (19 fouls, 8 blocks, 39 rbs)
Sa: n/a
Thiam: n/a
you fail to consider the talent on other teams..its better and by large margins...RU doesnt exist in a vacuum. RU might have some talent but how does it stack against the rest of the league which is bringing in more talent or reloading.
I would hesitate saying Johnson is anything..one thing we could always count on is overating of players who have not seen a single minute on the court...to expect Johnson to avg 16ppg..wow just wow
Our overall experience level going into next year:
Williams: 1510 min, 61 games
Johnson: 986 min, 62 games (all at KState)
Sanders: 905 min, 27 games
Laurent: 655 min, 27 games
Doorson: 298 min, 29 games
Diallo: 219 min, 14 games
Freeman: 216 min, 8 games
Sa: 0 min, 0 games
Thiam: 0 min, 0 games
Bullock: 0 min, 0 games
And should they pull the trigger...
Ca. Martin: 1599 min, 69 games (all at NC State)
Co. Martin: 1071 min, 52 games (all at NC State)
Williams: 1510 min, 61 games
Johnson: 986 min, 62 games (all at KState)
Sanders: 905 min, 27 games
Laurent: 655 min, 27 games
Doorson: 298 min, 29 games
Diallo: 219 min, 14 games
Freeman: 216 min, 8 games
Sa: 0 min, 0 games
Thiam: 0 min, 0 games
Bullock: 0 min, 0 games
And should they pull the trigger...
Ca. Martin: 1599 min, 69 games (all at NC State)
Co. Martin: 1071 min, 52 games (all at NC State)
The people that are "overrating" Johnson are not me. They are people who know basketball alot better than me. I am only going my what they have said. When I said before the season started last year that people who know basketball better than me think that Sanders could be a major player right off the bat I got the same reactions. And he was a 16ppg player.
Hope all the optimistic predictions are right--that Sanders and Johnson with All-state guard in Bullock in support, and Sa, Diallo, Doorson et al (we can't count on Thiam just yet) are viable, and that we get some out of the remainder. Twelve wins would be monumental, since the newcomers on all the other B1G schools are rated higher than our three. Plus all these guys will be learning a new system. Ten wins with developing talent, and competitive in most games, would be a big lunge forward. Sorry but have heard all this before--Rosario, Biruta, etc, will lead us to the Dance.
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What did you observe about his game?Thanks BK.I recognize it was only practice, but still.
I think Sa plays center a little bit too for sure. Doorson must drop weight, and Diallo still needs another year. Like chopping said, the game has switched to becoming less center oriented, but that is when you have really good shooting teams. We have still yet to prove we are a good shooting team.
I watched Nigel in early warmups prior to a few games and he was effortlessly draining 3's one after another. I have no idea how
he would do if someone was guarding him or how good his handle or defensive capabilities are.
Thanks for the feedback. I was more under the impression he was quick and penetrated a lot. If he can shoot I think people will be pleasantly surprised with how competitive we are this year
That's the stuff of fantasy. Last year you'd have needed to have either the first or second-leading scorer in the Big Ten and another guy in the top 8 to get an average of 35 per game out of two players. Nebraska came the closest with Shavon Shields and Andrew White, the fifth and sixth-leading scorers who combined for about 33 per game.
http://www.bigten.org/library/stats/mbb-confldrs.html#indiv
In all, only eight players in the conference averaged 16 or more points per game last year. It's rarified air.
So in short, anyone who thinks Sanders and Johnson are getting to that number is probably delusionsal.
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People need to undetstand how many point need to come from which spots
First....your goal from the center spot in 40 minutes is to get 10 points and 10 rebounds with 10 fouls to give in 40 minutes.
On a good 72 ppg....you would like to see, from each spot on the court, get something like this...
1-13 ppg
2-17 ppg
3-17 ppg
4-15 ppg
5-10 ppg
If you have more talent at the 5 or 1 (like we have with Corey)...then it skews it a bit
But something like that is typical.
So for us to expect Cory and Nigel to get 35 ppg....its just not realistic unless they are playing way too many minutes...
We probably don't have enough points at the three spot so...maybe we can get 35 ppg from the Sanders/Johnson/Willaims in combines 80 mpg
First....your goal from the center spot in 40 minutes is to get 10 points and 10 rebounds with 10 fouls to give in 40 minutes.
On a good 72 ppg....you would like to see, from each spot on the court, get something like this...
1-13 ppg
2-17 ppg
3-17 ppg
4-15 ppg
5-10 ppg
If you have more talent at the 5 or 1 (like we have with Corey)...then it skews it a bit
But something like that is typical.
So for us to expect Cory and Nigel to get 35 ppg....its just not realistic unless they are playing way too many minutes...
We probably don't have enough points at the three spot so...maybe we can get 35 ppg from the Sanders/Johnson/Willaims in combines 80 mpg
Seels:
Even if Johnson is as good or better as Sanders...You HOPE the answer is NO if you want to win...
We are not going to be playing that fast to expect us to score more than 72 ppg. And until we prove we are better...to expect that is just beyond unrealistic
If the two guards are scoring that MUCH....that most likely means
1.) We are not getting enough points in the front court scoring for balance that you usually need to win
2.) They are playing TOO many minutes. You want these guys pkaying BALLS to the WALLS 30 mpg a game with defensive effort. Tops. Expecting them to be able to score that much playing 30 mpg is NOT realistic.
Mark my words...our win total will go UP if Sanders scoring average stays the same and comes down
Root for Corey to have MORE assists and LESS minutes...and about the same scoring.
Even if Johnson is as good or better as Sanders...You HOPE the answer is NO if you want to win...
We are not going to be playing that fast to expect us to score more than 72 ppg. And until we prove we are better...to expect that is just beyond unrealistic
If the two guards are scoring that MUCH....that most likely means
1.) We are not getting enough points in the front court scoring for balance that you usually need to win
2.) They are playing TOO many minutes. You want these guys pkaying BALLS to the WALLS 30 mpg a game with defensive effort. Tops. Expecting them to be able to score that much playing 30 mpg is NOT realistic.
Mark my words...our win total will go UP if Sanders scoring average stays the same and comes down
Root for Corey to have MORE assists and LESS minutes...and about the same scoring.
If Corey Sanders scores more than 16 PPG we are going to struggle.
I would love to see our best getting 32-34 MPG...which means they are on the floor for about 52 offensive possessions and after turnovers you are looking at 43. Either that means incredible offensive efficiency OR the ball is in his hands more.
I would love to see our best getting 32-34 MPG...which means they are on the floor for about 52 offensive possessions and after turnovers you are looking at 43. Either that means incredible offensive efficiency OR the ball is in his hands more.
Thiam has signed his LOI. That's very, very good news. As for next year's lineup, I have no idea what Doorson and Diallo can bring to the table...I hope they can combine for 8-10 points, 8-10 boards a night, but both are coming off injury and both still seem to be projects with nice upside. Next season, I think we can have a lot of success playing small and fast, with three guards and Freeman and Sa up front. Wouldn't be surprised if our lineup looked something like this, with a similar minute distribution...
PG Sanders (32), Johnson (8)
SG Johnson (22), Williams (14), Bullock (4)
SF Williams (12), Laurent (20), Thiam (8)
PF Freeman (27), Thiam (10), Sa (3)
C Sa (22), Doorson (14), Diallo (4)
I think we see a really solid 10-man rotation next season...
Sanders (32)
Johnson (30)
Freeman (27)
Williams (26)
Sa (25)
Laurent (20)
Thiam (18)
Doorson (14)
Diallo (4)
Bullock (4)
PG Sanders (32), Johnson (8)
SG Johnson (22), Williams (14), Bullock (4)
SF Williams (12), Laurent (20), Thiam (8)
PF Freeman (27), Thiam (10), Sa (3)
C Sa (22), Doorson (14), Diallo (4)
I think we see a really solid 10-man rotation next season...
Sanders (32)
Johnson (30)
Freeman (27)
Williams (26)
Sa (25)
Laurent (20)
Thiam (18)
Doorson (14)
Diallo (4)
Bullock (4)
Shack, my argument was never we have enough to win a bunch of games, we still have serious depth issues to deal with first. My argument is that when it is all said and done we won't have the least talented team in the B1G. This is not a high bar.
So, I took a look at the top 250 scorers from last year (going down to 15.9 ppg), and filtered out those marked as forward or center. I then found any team with just a single guard on the list who scored at least 19 ppg, and found the next highest scoring guard on the team to add into the data. That gave me 52 teams.
Here are the top 32 teams with the highest combined values for their top 2 guards (3 tied for 30th):
42.1 - Howard (12-20)
39.1 - Wyoming (14-18)
38.9 - Duke (25-11)
38.1 - Rice (12-20)
38.0 - Oklahoma (29-8)
37.7 - Davidson (20-13)
37.5 - St. Boneventure (22-9)
37.4 - Winthrop (23-9)
37.3 - Kennesaw St (11-20)
37.3 - Kentucky (27-9)
37.2 - San Francisco (15-15)
37.0 - Washington (19-15)
36.4 - NC State (16-17)
36.3 - Duquesne (17-17)
36.2 - Marist (7-23)
36.0 - Cornell (10-18)
35.6 - Iona (22-11)
35.5 - Montana St (14-17)
35.2 - Old Dominion (25-13)
35.2 - North Florida (22-12)
35.1 - Hampton (21-11)
35.1 - Oakland (23-12)
34.9 - UMass (14-18)
34.8 - Northwestern St (8-20)
34.6 - Idaho St (16-15)
34.5 - Sacred Heart (12-18)
34.5 - BYU (26-11)
34.0 - New Mexico (17-15)
33.7 - Hofstra (24-10)
33.6 - VMI (9-21)
33.6 - Michigan St (29-6)
33.6 - Illinois
That's 27 teams whose guards averaged 35 ppg, rounded up, or about 7.6%. It doesn't appear as though 35 ppg from the two top guards is as wild as I had thought it would be. Of those 32 teams, 17 finished with a winning record.
Looking just at the top 8 conferences by rpi (B12, P12, ACC, BE, B1G, SEC, A10, AAC), the list shortens to just 9 teams (out of 100) with two guards averaging 35 ppg (4 of which are from the A10, and 2 of which were in the Elite Eight).
38.9 - Duke (25-11)
38.0 - Oklahoma (29-8)
37.7 - Davidson (20-13)
37.5 - St. Boneventure (22-9)
37.3 - Kentucky (27-9)
37.0 - Washington (19-15)
36.4 - NC State (16-17)
36.3 - Duquesne (17-17)
34.9 - UMass (14-18)
Here are the top 32 teams with the highest combined values for their top 2 guards (3 tied for 30th):
42.1 - Howard (12-20)
39.1 - Wyoming (14-18)
38.9 - Duke (25-11)
38.1 - Rice (12-20)
38.0 - Oklahoma (29-8)
37.7 - Davidson (20-13)
37.5 - St. Boneventure (22-9)
37.4 - Winthrop (23-9)
37.3 - Kennesaw St (11-20)
37.3 - Kentucky (27-9)
37.2 - San Francisco (15-15)
37.0 - Washington (19-15)
36.4 - NC State (16-17)
36.3 - Duquesne (17-17)
36.2 - Marist (7-23)
36.0 - Cornell (10-18)
35.6 - Iona (22-11)
35.5 - Montana St (14-17)
35.2 - Old Dominion (25-13)
35.2 - North Florida (22-12)
35.1 - Hampton (21-11)
35.1 - Oakland (23-12)
34.9 - UMass (14-18)
34.8 - Northwestern St (8-20)
34.6 - Idaho St (16-15)
34.5 - Sacred Heart (12-18)
34.5 - BYU (26-11)
34.0 - New Mexico (17-15)
33.7 - Hofstra (24-10)
33.6 - VMI (9-21)
33.6 - Michigan St (29-6)
33.6 - Illinois
That's 27 teams whose guards averaged 35 ppg, rounded up, or about 7.6%. It doesn't appear as though 35 ppg from the two top guards is as wild as I had thought it would be. Of those 32 teams, 17 finished with a winning record.
Looking just at the top 8 conferences by rpi (B12, P12, ACC, BE, B1G, SEC, A10, AAC), the list shortens to just 9 teams (out of 100) with two guards averaging 35 ppg (4 of which are from the A10, and 2 of which were in the Elite Eight).
38.9 - Duke (25-11)
38.0 - Oklahoma (29-8)
37.7 - Davidson (20-13)
37.5 - St. Boneventure (22-9)
37.3 - Kentucky (27-9)
37.0 - Washington (19-15)
36.4 - NC State (16-17)
36.3 - Duquesne (17-17)
34.9 - UMass (14-18)