Tough to keep an eye on death rates. They quit reporting them; only positive cases now. Maybe because the number of deaths in SC where there has been a Covid “spike” the deaths for the past 4 days have been 1,2,5 and 10. That should overwhelm the hospitals.
OT positive antibody tests
- Thread starter Flaeer
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The CDC and a bunch of other states are doing that as well. As a data analytics professional, I find that sloppy as hell.
Lol, right?
The key here is asking someone like @WVUPharm2007 that stays on top of it.
On the other hand, if all the other side has is Creepy Joe... I mean, even in the YouTube ads that come up between songs, or sports highlights, or soft porn, or whatever we're watching, even in those pre-recorded ads, he still can't string a handful of sentences together without a gaff.
Back on topic, I look forward to seeing/reading what @WVUPharm2007 , @mdeer1 , @MountainDoc1 , etc have to say on the subject, because they tend to be more on the cutting edge, in the trenches. That beats the hell out of the rest of us fanboys rooting for our respective "teams", tho in this case, everyone should be rooting for the fastest, least lethal way to end this pandemic.
Thanks for this. There are more than a few fools on here who have been spreading the rumor that if you die of a heart attack or in a car wreck while you are positive for COVID, your death is attributed to it.I follow the excess deaths visualizations pretty closely, but several states are slower than damn snails in getting their death certificate filings to the CDC. The CDC tries to correct for this, and they do an OK job for the most part. Here's the most recent CDC chart for excess deaths nationally and they show it on a state by state basis as well here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
The NY Times has their own as well here, though it's a little uneven in how recent the figures are (because of the slow state reporting, but I digress). https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
That is patently false. Here is the guidance from the CDC on it: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/coding-and-reporting.htm
Let me preface everything I am about to say with, I don’t know the specifics of how any one particular state is counting the numbers.
Regarding anti-body testing, assuming the test has a very good positive predictive value (meaning a positive means you really had SARS-CoV-2, then it depends on what anti-bodies are being tested to determine how the case should be counted.
The body makes multiple types of anti-bodies to “neutralize” foreign invaders. Two are relevant to testing for this disease and figuring out what is going on. IgM is an “early” anti-body involved in the disease process and shows up about 1-2 weeks after you have been infected. It helps clear the initial infection in layman’s terms. The body doesn’t produce these long beyond the pathogen being in your system. IgG antibodies are the “memory” antibodies that your immune system will make to fight off future infections.
So there are three or four key tests to figure out what’s going on.
The big one we’ve been doing are SARS-CoV-2 nasal swabs or stool samples for viral RNA (close cousin to DNA). You are positive for this you are actively infected and likely infectious. The amount or concentration of viral RNA determines HOW infective you are, but most of these tests are qualitative and not quantitative. You are likely within 1 day - 1 month of the initial infection event if your viral cultures are still popping positive or you’re immune system has been beat and it’s soon to be all she wrote.
IgM antibody testing is significant for saying your body is starting to fight back.
IgG shows up late in the infectious process (2 weeks + out) and typically your viral load is going to zero at that point. This indicates a patient heading for recovery.
so with regards to “counting cases”, anyone with any of the 3 should be presumed to be a COVID case. The timing of the counting is probablematic For IgG testing because you want that person counting towards recovery and herd immunity statistics, but you don’t want them to skew a trend to make it look like a new outbreak is happening when in reality the outbreak was at some point in the past. If all you have is IgG antibodies without a positive viral PCR or IgM antibodies, you’re likely over a month out since infection and are not infectious. If all three are positive you are in mid recovery late infection. If only viral PCR is positive, you’re in early infection. Again it’s tricky to figure out a “date” to attribute a positive IgG alone test to for statistical purposes.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
Follow the black line in the graph at the link.
Follow the black line in the graph at the link.
Not if states decide to shut back down. That will be the reason for the steady state deaths and severe cases requiring hospitalization.
I don’t see FL, SC, TX, or AZ shutting it down again, they are pretty dug in on this politically.
I personally believe antibody tests and what happened in NY/NJ tell the actual story. The actual infected is about 10x what the total amount of positives are which means the death rates are considerably less than advertised, and our hospital capacity can handle the influx. Should capacity become a legit issue, the Army Corps of engineers can get field hospitals up in under a week. The virus is real, the deaths are real, but it’s not Chinese Flying Aids. It’s a deadlier flu, precautions like masks are necessary, isolating the vulnerable, social distancing where possible should be done. But it is nothing that will alter the course of mankind in the grand scheme IMO.
But at the end of the day, I’m an armchair QB, well see if what the experts in the media are predicting will come to fruition. They have been wrong before.
You been under a rock Simon? Feel like this is pretty common knowledge at this point.
Not necessarily. We know that a certain % of the population is needed to achieve “herd immunity”. KnowIng what % of your local community has had the virus and recovered is important in figuring out when the world goes completely back to normal. At the same time we still don’t know the true “mortality rate” if you get COVID. Of those tested - meaning those who screened positive and were tested for the disease and found to have disease. In the US to this point, 10% of those cases end in death.
Brazil had over 55,000 new cases yesterday.
That is a shocking number.
They might wind up passing the US by the time this is over. Keep in mind it's now Winter there right now. It's going to get very ,very bad there. If they don't get this under control in the Southern hemisphere, it will be almost impossible to stop a second wave in the fall unless draconian measures are taken by border security.
That is a shocking number.
They might wind up passing the US by the time this is over. Keep in mind it's now Winter there right now. It's going to get very ,very bad there. If they don't get this under control in the Southern hemisphere, it will be almost impossible to stop a second wave in the fall unless draconian measures are taken by border security.
No ****.
My point was, instead arguing with the OP without specific knowledge of aforementioned facts, I'd ask someone else on here to confirm; you know, the folks that do this for a living. In fact, even tho one of my own family members preps a daily presentation for the state, which ends up in General Hoyer's hands, since WVUPharm2007 is on here sharing knowledge of these findings, it seemed like the best/quickest route.
Going forward if you're really sick we are going to treat you differently in the hospital if we can. Instead of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (Zithromax), you're going to get put on 5 days of Remdesivir and 10 days of decadron, in the hope of avoiding a vent.
Mutations, strains, and prior exposure will all factor in to how severe a second wave would be. This is still the first wave.
Mutations, strains, and prior exposure will all factor in to how severe a second wave would be. This is still the first wave.
I live in Florida got a link to that statement from DeCANTis or a high ranking health officia or is this more of your political drivel you run here daily?
As long as it does not affect “Carnival”... I could care less. I go every year for a “breather” from the family life and I need it more than ever after quarantine. I AM GOING !! My freedoms are more important than lives !!!
Music to my ears. IT's a shame it takes a global pandemic for us to finally get serious about it and stop playing political games with the issue.
Agreed. The OP and I may have some common thoughts in other areas of politics (or maybe not), but sometimes people try too hard to connect the dots... Not EVERYTHING is a political conspiracy, tho I do think people on both sides of the aisle try to use a lot of the current events to gain votes. It's sickening.
Was told to me by a health dept official a high ranking one. As for governor Desantis thank god he defeated the bribe taking crackhead Democrat. Maybe you should move to the peoples republic of Whitmer. Or the communist commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
Youre insufferable. Regardless of what anyone says you’re going to dig in and throw out more **** about politics.
The mods need to set some actual rules like 24/7 did instead of just tip toeing around it. Make a forum for politics, if they don’t post there, ban them.
Born and raised in WV and been here 32 years in September. Not going anywhere else to live except those 2 states. How'd that new record of Covid-19 for the 4th day in a row taste? 4K yesterday.
That may be exactly, what will happen. I believe(and please correct me), Dr. Fauci-whether you like him or not, is not sure how long the vaccines will provide immunity once developed.
Obviously you're the Douche since you can't take your right wing BS to the "OFF TOPIC" board where it's supposed to be posted. Blue Lot is for Mountaineer sports not your political ********.