How long will this last?
- Thread starter SLOHusker
- Start date
Those numbers won't be accurately known until we're done with these things. All I can do is look at some of the stories being told and the information filtering down to my physician family members from the CDC. I've seen numbers as high as 10% of the people who require hospitalization require a ventilator. I'm not making this shi## up. I've got family members on the front lines of this. Read the stories coming out of Italy. Hell just watch what is going on in areas of New York. It's horrible. Dr.s in Italy are having to decide who they attempt to save by giving them the ventilator if one is available. We're not talking about putting somebody on one and then poof a day later they're off. When they go on they're likely on it for a week or more. If you have 600 fatalities a day as in Italy, there's going to be a need for probably 100 times that number of ventilators and then you have to have Drs to manage them. It isn't something a PA or nurse can do.
I believe the numbers are 20% from ages 55 on down, below twenty, it's rare for hospitalization.
But, the 20-55 grouping doesn't vary too much.
So, 20% of all in hospital from this are younger than hat many think.
Listening to gov cuomo this morning, as he kicked out numbers, currently, those 60 and older, Theres less than one fifth of 1% who will die from this, his numbers, and that those who's been tested so far, so, it obviously will vary.
In essence, its not alot worse than other viruses, likely double,just ball parking here, as numbers have always been guesswork in who's had a flu,vs who has and didn't know,or never were counted etc.
It's all estimations, but tendencies are chronicled,but with this, being new, we can't even use the intelligent guesses of our past.
But, the 20-55 grouping doesn't vary too much.
So, 20% of all in hospital from this are younger than hat many think.
Listening to gov cuomo this morning, as he kicked out numbers, currently, those 60 and older, Theres less than one fifth of 1% who will die from this, his numbers, and that those who's been tested so far, so, it obviously will vary.
In essence, its not alot worse than other viruses, likely double,just ball parking here, as numbers have always been guesswork in who's had a flu,vs who has and didn't know,or never were counted etc.
It's all estimations, but tendencies are chronicled,but with this, being new, we can't even use the intelligent guesses of our past.
The CFR for influenza is way overstated as well just due to the flawed way we count "flu cases". Right now I would say in those hotspot areas they are detecting a much higher percentage of infections with COVID-19 than they normally do for influenza. Anybody with a nose itch or sore throat is getting tested in those areas in New York.
BTW, I've listened to a couple of Cuomo's briefings over the past week. He's an idiot but he's doing his best.
I know we won't accurately now the percentages. Which is why it's so crazy for you to sit here and say "a fairly high percentage" as if you could be any less specific.
I'm not saying your making stuff up. But it's highly likely you're greatly overstating it. As I said before I appreciate that you're trying to look at the worst case scenario, but that's not how we live our lives. I guess I'm just stupid for that.
Please do look at Italy
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-tally-idUSKBN2172VL
Read up on Italy. It shows this all an incredible over reaction.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-tally-idUSKBN2172VL
60-70% of Italy's deaths are are due to a high chinese population who had been traveling to and from China at the beginning of all of this.
Some 41% of all those who died were aged between 80-89, with the 70-79 age group accounting for a further 35%.
Italy has the oldest population in the world after Japan, with some 23% of people aged over age 65. Medical experts say these demographics could explain why the death toll here is so much higher than anywhere else in the world.
The ISS report, based on a survey of 3,200 of the dead, said men accounted for 70.6% of the deaths and women 29.4%. The median age for the women who died was 82 against 79 for men.
These things aren't easy to talk about. I remember when we went into iraq, they announced each death a day, bless them all, but, if you drilled down how some were dying, it was traffic accidents, sickness etc, anything a normal population of 135,000 people would experience, yet, those numbers were used as casualties counts.
Doing numbers, you always have to come down to the common denominator as it is applied to the greater whole, simple math. It's when a story deviates from this simple math when things simply don't add up
I didn't claim any accomplishments, I listed my experiences. I said I am currently working on pandemic planning, not that it is my job normally. This is my third round of having to support pandemic planning. H1N1 in 2009, Ebola in 2014 and this. The first two were helping ensure facilities were ready to support the needs of our medical providers technically. This round is helping ensure our operations team can maintain operations during this time technically. If you want to read more into it, go for it.
You keep using your racist overtones and jokes about the virus, the only reason that is done is to be a racist A-Hole. You probably think the "Spanish Flu" originated in Spain, so we're being "historically correct". Many historians actually believe the 1918 pandemic originated in the US, France, UK or China. Nobody will ever know, it doesn't matter. Using the terms people are throwing around is simply because they feel the Chinese are responsible or lesser. It's BS, flat out racism.
You have been claiming that "60-70% of Italy's deaths are are due to a high chinese population who had been traveling to and from China at the beginning of all of this". There is 0 proof to that, link the source or stop spewing your racist BS.
https://bit.ly/2J7xZU4
Here is one source of numbers. The day we hit the button compared to the day Italy hit the button we had more infections despite less widespread testing over a larger spread area. The US has less hospital beds per capita than Italy, US hospitals in the Seattle region are already running low on supplies. If we are lucky, this will look like a typical flu season, if we do nothing then it looks probably much worse than the 1918 pandemic.
Here was the first article, his projections have held pretty true from 11 days ago.
https://bit.ly/3dhoTSB
Here's the Imperial research report that appears to have woken global leaders up to what can happen worldwide.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/
Vanderbilt Medical Center built a unit inside a parking garage to prep for a surge of patients, China built hospitals, the US is shipping floating hospitals to NYC. Why? Because they can follow the math, and they need to be prepared.
Italy released that there are another 637 died today and they had like 6500 more cases. Hopefully their measures keep numbers from continuing to grow exponentially.
Ignoring Italy...here are US numbers from the CDC 5 days ago.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years.
Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).
Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).
Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2).
Now these numbers are early, hopefully they get better, but 55% of hospitalizations were 20-64 and 20% of deaths were 20-64. If we outstrip the medical capacity (ICU beds, vents, healthcare workers, PPE) then our death totals will trend towards Italy.
It doesn't matter what we call it, and cherry picking events in human history is lousy sourcing.
Convention has called point of origin in naming these events.
Convention has called point of origin in naming these events.
And it should stop, COVID-19 is perfectly fine. The last few rounds we called H1N1 and Ebola, we did have MERS which was a region, but SARS before that. I know it’s fun to call things by racist names, but we can, and should, do better.
No, its fine my way as well, yet it fits convention.
There isnt an ounce of racism in me calling it the wuhan virus, but you seperating a shared understanding that goes without racism only undermines such things, simply sidelining your issue, racism, yet losing that shared understanding, a true loss,
It is no more racist to call this the Chinese Corona virus than to say that I'm going out for Chinese food tonight. There's a cartoon called something like Kung pau Fu I think on PBS. It's a fact. It originated in China and then spread to the rest of the world. Just like Chinese food has.....
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How does calling it the Wuhan virus promote shared understanding any more than COVID-19 or Coronavirus? And the larger offenders are “China virus” or “Kung Flu”, that’s not about shared understanding, it’s about demeaning a country or race to garner some votes or a laugh.
Ok, you want to die on some self proclaimed mountain? Before you ask another person to change, go look and see what chinese scientists call Lyme disesease.
Get back here, and show us not one reference to that name.
Now, logic follows, if those chinese scientists are calling it Lyme disease, or spanich flu or ebola, they, according to you, are using racial terms.
Your anti racial muscles wont get stronger by removing things you may have to lift every onve in awhile, like how mine are with you, which I'm happy to do, so you can be free of racism to my level.
Disagree completely, one is intended as a negative connotation and the other isn’t. There’s a crap ton of non-Chinese infected with this so called “Chinese virus”. What is the benefit in calling it anything other than COVID-19? We don’t call the 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” the American or US virus do we? What’s the difference?
Chinese - Came from China - the country.
The CCP are blaming the US. Trump is correcting them.
Ah, the indefensible others do it so why shouldn’t we defense. That one is always the best.
C'mon man. What's the intended negative connotation of using the term Chinese Corona virus? Good heavens. Using Chinese or Wuhan is simply indicating where it came from. Find something else to be offended by because complaining about this isn't worth your time. IF you look in a medical dictionary there are dozens of diseases which are denoted by their region of origination. There's Rift Valley Fever, African Swine Fever, etc
What? It's you who are living outside of this knowledge, pointing acuusatory fingers.
This is self explanatory, no, those scientists are likely not racist, but assuredly they aren't when writing papers on these diseases.
You need to set yourself free of this confined blame game you've created for yourself.
Well regardless of your overly sensitive indignation, I think the term Kung Flu is a pretty darned funny play on words. I choose to try not to go through life filled with righteous indignation over every little perceived slight.
How dare you for not being righteously indignafied! What you said was intended
Iran is suffering a lot as well but I'm under the impression that Iran's population is much, much younger than Italy.
And on the other hand, Russia and Africa (so far) are suffering far less. Kind of surprising for Russia since there apparently is significant traffic back and forth between China and Russia.
My conclusion is that these country by country differences just are not well explained or understood at this time.
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Well maybe 3 million of them shouldn't all get together in the streets for a funeral? How would we possibly cope without them sowing terror throughout the region? Maybe they should quit spending so much time with the Chinese trying to build nukes?
It'd sure be interesting to see about the population ages. If you find a list of the oldest populations post it.
In all seriousness, much of the ebola spread was caused by touching the dead ones at funerals.
The initial shock hit them, then the second transmission is hitting them now, they will spike soon in all likelyhood, but at a terrible cost.
The average age in Italy is 45.4 years and 30.8 years in Iran. Those may not be for the very same year but it wouldn't change that much. That's a huge difference statistically speaking.
I always believe information coming out of Russia. It's usually truthful. I wonder if covid-19 has reached the gulags yet?
Italy lost 793 today from COVID-19. Their number of daily fatalities are continuing to increase
We have moved up from 6th most cases in country to #3rd most. We have added 7,300 new cases so far just today. Yikes!
The Lombardy region continues to dominate, 25,315 cases and 3,095 deaths, 546 today alone. 48% of Italy’s cases and 64% of deaths in Italy. Represents 1/6 of Italy’s population, one of its wealthiest and best healthcare systems.
It’s also skewing data, but is the reason the remaining world is trying to flatten the curve.
My problem with "Kung Flu" is that it reminds me of something a second grader would come up with. A weak effort by someone who thought they were being clever. But it was lame instead. And nothing worse than someone who keeps repeating the same lame joke again and again because they legit keep thinking they are hilarious. It's like dude stop, you're embarrassing yourself.
And my problem with terms like 'Asian Flu' or 'Chinese Flu' etc is that it's too generic and not specific enough. I'm sure there has been more than one flu that originated in Asia sometime in the history of this planet. I went with 'Wuhan virus' for a while because that was the speculated point of origin and it needed to be differentiated from other coronaviruses. Covid-19 works just fine now.
But call it what you want, I think you also need to consider tone, context, etc by whomever is saying it when considering if it is racist or not.
And my problem with terms like 'Asian Flu' or 'Chinese Flu' etc is that it's too generic and not specific enough. I'm sure there has been more than one flu that originated in Asia sometime in the history of this planet. I went with 'Wuhan virus' for a while because that was the speculated point of origin and it needed to be differentiated from other coronaviruses. Covid-19 works just fine now.
But call it what you want, I think you also need to consider tone, context, etc by whomever is saying it when considering if it is racist or not.
Interesting article here - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
Well considering some of the posts on this board denying the significance of this virus I think putting it in terms a second grader can understand seems pretty appropriate. I personally haven't heard anybody repeat the term other than the CNN reporterette who had to repeat her question 3 times because nobody could hear her question over her obnoxious colleagues. That said, Chinese corona virus isn't specific enough because there's been a lot of them. Now on the other hand I know of only ONE Kung Flu.Winking