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Is Nebraska the most over hyped program?

E

Ewooc

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2010
6,114
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Every year we hear of this team or that team is always hyped up preseason and every year they under perform. So I dug into it to find out. Nothing to scientific. I simply took the the preseason AP ranking and compared it to the final AP rankings. If a team started or ended un ranked I assigned a 30 just for simplicity.
So essentially how many spots different the AP preseason was from the AP final rankings. So if pre season team A was ranked 3rd, and final ranking they were 20th that would be a - 17 difference or under performing. A 0 indicates right on or even comparing pre to final. A positive mean over performed.
What stuck out to me that when comparing preseason to final ranking over the course of 10 years it ends up being very very accurate.

10 year average from over performing/ under hyped to under performing/ over hyped

Baylor 3.8
Northwester 3.4
Missouri 3.2
Utah 2.7
Miss St 2.4
Clemson 2.4
Okla St 2.4
MN 2
Kentucky 1.8
K St 1.7
Colorado 1.3
Vanderbilt 1.3
Penn St .9
Syracuse .7
Maryland. 7
Duke .7
AZ .3
Virginia 0
Pitt 0
Boston College 0
Rutgers 0
Purdue 0
Mich St 0
Indiana 0
Illinois 0
Texas Tech 0
Kansas 0
Cal 0
Stanford 0
AZ st -.1
Iowa -.3
Louisville -.4
Notre Dame -.4
TCU -.4
LSU -.6
Wisc - .6
Georgia Tech -.6
Wake Forest -.7
Wash St -.7
South Car -.7
Ohio St -.8
Iowa St -.9
Texas AM -1
Oregon St -1.1
Ole Miss -1.1
Oregon -1.3
North Car -1.3
FL -1.4
West Virg -1.6
Arkansas -1.7
Alabama -2.1
Washington -2.2
Tennessee -2.2
Oklahoma -2.5
Miami -2.4
V Tech -2.7
UCLA -2.9
Mich -3
Texas -5.2
Georgia -5.3
USC -5.4
FL St -5.7
Neb -6
 
S

SWIowahawks_rivals44758

All-Conference
Sep 2, 2006
2,374
1,118
0
I was gonna say the Huskers are usually well over hyped but not to the level as USC, FSU, ND, Texas. ND has had some success recently while the other programs haven’t. Did USC even make a bowl game when they were preseason number 1?
 
mgbreeze

mgbreeze

All-Conference
Dec 16, 2004
10,118
3,590
113
Nice analysis but it's pretty obvious we've underperformed. That's why we're on our third coach in that same 10 year period. I have no issue agreeing we're overhyped, I struggle with the vitriol that our fellow posters seem to have over it. When the gray haired media that remembers the 90's finally die/retire we can slink off into anonymity. Until then, why get worked up over it? I guess if you believe that being "overhyped" leads directly to failure. I don't believe that. Poor talent, poor coaching and poor play leads to failure. I just don't believe that overconfidence is why we finished 5-7 last year.
 
H

huskerhooligansdotcom

Senior
Mar 4, 2009
1,214
701
0
The Huskers' hype is that they'll be around #20-#25 and we under-deliver.

USC's hype is that they'll be top 5 or even #1 and then they end up going .500
 
Redscarlet

Redscarlet

Heisman
Jun 17, 2001
33,105
11,126
113
SWIowahawks said:
I was gonna say the Huskers are usually well over hyped but not to the level as USC, FSU, ND, Texas. ND has had some success recently while the other programs haven’t. Did USC even make a bowl game when they were preseason number 1?
Click to expand...

They lost to Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl in 2012 finishing 7-6..
 
redwine65

redwine65

All-Conference
Jun 23, 2010
10,854
2,172
113
the only hype last year I remember was urban myer talking bout Martinez and heismen
 
Headcard

Headcard

Heisman
Feb 2, 2005
192,509
20,878
113
mgbreis said:
But it's not "Husker media" driving this hype. ESPN is not Husker media.
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True and I agree. However, I think Greg's point is all the talk and outrage over "hype" is just stupid. The team didn't lose games and fans weren't let down because of "hype", it's just some lame nonsense to piss and moan about.
 
S

SkerInCo

All-Conference
Apr 26, 2004
5,270
1,285
0
husker2612 said:
Every year we hear of this team or that team is always hyped up preseason and every year they under perform. So I dug into it to find out. Nothing to scientific. I simply took the the preseason AP ranking and compared it to the final AP rankings. If a team started or ended un ranked I assigned a 30 just for simplicity.
So essentially how many spots different the AP preseason was from the AP final rankings. So if pre season team A was ranked 3rd, and final ranking they were 20th that would be a - 17 difference or under performing. A 0 indicates right on or even comparing pre to final. A positive mean over performed.
What stuck out to me that when comparing preseason to final ranking over the course of 10 years it ends up being very very accurate.

10 year average from over performing/ under hyped to under performing/ over hyped

Baylor 3.8
Northwester 3.4
Missouri 3.2
Utah 2.7
Miss St 2.4
Clemson 2.4
Okla St 2.4
MN 2
Kentucky 1.8
K St 1.7
Colorado 1.3
Vanderbilt 1.3
Penn St .9
Syracuse .7
Maryland. 7
Duke .7
AZ .3
Virginia 0
Pitt 0
Boston College 0
Rutgers 0
Purdue 0
Mich St 0
Indiana 0
Illinois 0
Texas Tech 0
Kansas 0
Cal 0
Stanford 0
AZ st -.1
Iowa -.3
Louisville -.4
Notre Dame -.4
TCU -.4
LSU -.6
Wisc - .6
Georgia Tech -.6
Wake Forest -.7
Wash St -.7
South Car -.7
Ohio St -.8
Iowa St -.9
Texas AM -1
Oregon St -1.1
Ole Miss -1.1
Oregon -1.3
North Car -1.3
FL -1.4
West Virg -1.6
Arkansas -1.7
Alabama -2.1
Washington -2.2
Tennessee -2.2
Oklahoma -2.5
Miami -2.4
V Tech -2.7
UCLA -2.9
Mich -3
Texas -5.2
Georgia -5.3
USC -5.4
FL St -5.7
Neb -6
Click to expand...
Lurk
 
N

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
huskerhooligansdotcom said:
The Huskers' hype is that they'll be around #20-#25 and we under-deliver.

USC's hype is that they'll be top 5 or even #1 and then they end up going .500
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No, that 20-25 wont be preseason top 25.
However, the FPI and SP+ computer ratings preseason have us there, which is mainly returning production and recruiting class ratings.
What people arent putting together is, those computer ratings are going of 40 guys who are freshmen, 17 or so,4 stars,lus many highly rated three stars. Where the computer already counts them, weve only seen a few actually play,all with less than 4 games to retain their redshirts.
It is a very positive projection based on exactly how they do it every year, no emotion, just number crunching.
 
H

huskerhooligansdotcom

Senior
Mar 4, 2009
1,214
701
0
This math is pretty dubious. It is a function of high preseason rankings in 2010 (8th in preseason, 20th in final poll) and 2011 (10th in preseason, 24th in final poll). After those years, we were never really very highly rated, with 17th being the highest.

We weren't even ranked in the preseason poll for 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2018. In 2019 we were preseason number 24.

2010 - 8th then 20th
2011 - 10th then 24th
2012 - 17th then 25th
2013 - 18th then out (we ended 25th in coaches poll but not in AP)
2014 - 22nd then out (we were 25th then out after losing bowl game)
2015 - nada (never ranked)
2016 - nada (made it as high as 7th midseason)
2017 - nada (never ranked)
2018 - nada (never ranked)
2019 - 24th then out.
 
H

huskerhooligansdotcom

Senior
Mar 4, 2009
1,214
701
0
NorthwoodHusker said:
No, that 20-25 wont be preseason top 25.
However, the FPI and SP+ computer ratings preseason have us there, which is mainly returning production and recruiting class ratings.
What people arent putting together is, those computer ratings are going of 40 guys who are freshmen, 17 or so,4 stars,lus many highly rated three stars. Where the computer already counts them, weve only seen a few actually play,all with less than 4 games to retain their redshirts.
It is a very positive projection based on exactly how they do it every year, no emotion, just number crunching.
Click to expand...

I was saying generally, our hype would get us in the 20-25 spots and we would fall out. I agree that we probably won't be ranked to start the season in AP or coaches poll.

I added another post with the actual first and final rankings for each year of the decade.
 
W

Wyldcard

All-Conference
Feb 12, 2018
9,727
2,691
0
The reason for all of the outside and local hype for our beloved Huskers is because we are the last of the Blueblood Giants that is still down and just as we locally, nationally they wanna see us back in a big way as we have been gone for A LONG time and as the National types are concerned a DONU return would extremely great for CFB overall and most pundints truly wanna see Nebraska back in a big way!
 
N

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
huskerhooligansdotcom said:
I was saying generally, our hype would get us in the 20-25 spots and we would fall out. I agree that we probably won't be ranked to start the season in AP or coaches poll.

I added another post with the actual first and final rankings for each year of the decade.
Click to expand...
We have a very outside chance of correcting this, but if it happens, only this year, as they'll likely overhype us for 2021.
Just going by FPI, on memory, we only have three sure losses,with iowa a slight favorite, and us against minny, mostly due to home field advantage. Wiscy,osu and psu are projected losses.
At 9-3, if we do beat the iwegians, that likely could have us in the top 25.

Thats their numbers, plus winning a close one to favored iowa at their house too.
 
E

Ewooc

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2010
6,114
3,053
0
huskerhooligansdotcom said:
This math is pretty dubious. It is a function of high preseason rankings in 2010 (8th in preseason, 20th in final poll) and 2011 (10th in preseason, 24th in final poll). After those years, we were never really very highly rated, with 17th being the highest.

We weren't even ranked in the preseason poll for 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2018. In 2019 we were preseason number 24.

2010 - 8th then 20th
2011 - 10th then 24th
2012 - 17th then 25th
2013 - 18th then out (we ended 25th in coaches poll but not in AP)
2014 - 22nd then out (we were 25th then out after losing bowl game)
2015 - nada (never ranked)
2016 - nada (made it as high as 7th midseason)
2017 - nada (never ranked)
2018 - nada (never ranked)
2019 - 24th then out.
Click to expand...
The same equation and method was used for every program. If all factors are the same, the results will be equal for every team used. Now like another mentioned yes you could have a situation where the swings are bigger IE USC, which will appear they are more over rated, but when it is all average out over a 10 year period above is what you get.
 
P

PeliniTheCrutch_rivals294365

All-Conference
Jul 4, 2016
8,269
3,869
0
Nebraska basically gets this year to somewhat deliver on national hype. If it doesn’t happen this year, the hype ain’t happening again anytime soon.

And honestly, that’s really not a big deal unless we have hopes of getting into a BCS bowl, where you’d want a decent preseason rating so it’s not so hard to move up and then you aren’t off the map after a loss.
 
S

spinner4_rivals42045

All-Conference
Jan 29, 2003
6,139
1,819
0
But in all fairness to the media, their assessment should be correct. Fan support, financial support, and recruiting shows that we should be a top 25 program every year. Before people jump on me about recruiting, Huskers are in the top 25 of recruiting every year. On LOI day it’s there.
 
bigboxes

bigboxes

All-American
Sep 4, 2004
46,242
6,784
113
We are overhyped because we are a blue blood. To me, Notre Dame tops the list of overhyped. But then I have a different definition than just the preseason/closing polls. Basically, the media expects NU to return to form. We just haven't done it yet.
 
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HuskerHusaria

HuskerHusaria

All-Conference
Jun 4, 2017
7,409
2,208
113
Not in favor of being hyped. Bigboxes said it best

We may be over hyped , but at least we're not Cal. Cal has a history of trying to be top 10 and then finds a way to get embarrased every time.
 
N

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
spinner4 said:
But in all fairness to the media, their assessment should be correct. Fan support, financial support, and recruiting shows that we should be a top 25 program every year. Before people jump on me about recruiting, Huskers are in the top 25 of recruiting every year. On LOI day it’s there.
Click to expand...
Just remember,40 unknowns as freshmen or unknown rs freshmen. Plus losing to attrition Lindsey ,the LB and Gebbia, plus busts,all four stars under SF alone.
Many more busts so far from previous staffs, so, when Bo recruited in the thirties, it hurt, when he recruited in the upper teens and the majority of four stars never showed,left or were busts hurt. Even POB was a four star. Other teams dont get as many, but sometimes end up with as many that truly contribute at a higher level.
I think this is changing under this staff, too many recruiting guys playing up SF recruits.
 
L

litespeedhuskerfan_rivals19671

All-American
Aug 27, 2006
27,799
5,563
0
Why do people consider ND as overhyped? I don't really remember the media trying to convince us they were better than they were....they have had some success where a lot of other former power houses have failed, didn't they play for a natty about 6 years ago?
 
N

NorthwoodHusker

Sophomore
Jun 20, 2019
3,526
156
0
litespeedhuskerfan said:
Why do people conside ND as overhyped? I don't really remember the media trying to convince us they were better than theu were....they have had some success where a lot of other former cold climate power gpuses have failed, didn't the play for a natty aboit 6 years ago?
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Actually, they fell off that perch too awhile ago. Just glad we're still on it, but we gotta show up
 
S

SoFL Husker

All-Conference
Sep 16, 2017
8,101
3,691
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Yes. UCLA, Colorado, Syracuse, VaTech and Florida State are down, but we have the crystal and we pretty much suck.
 
B

bigRed-no-BiilyC

Redshirt
May 12, 2005
111
12
0
SoFL Husker said:
Yes. UCLA, Colorado, Syracuse, VaTech and Florida State are down, but we have the crystal and we pretty much suck.
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Can't find your name on the roster, SoFa. Never see you post anything positive on here, as if you were a fan. How you can use the word "we"? No one would argue your right to use "I".

That would finish your last comment as "I pretty much suck".
 
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