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B1G Season Prediction

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huskerfan1414

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East​
  • Michigan State 11-1 (8-1): Michigan State returns the most production of any team in college football. They are quietly hanging back in the shadows while everyone talks about Ohio State and Michigan, just as they prefer. Nineteen starters and the 2nd best QB in the league return.
  • Michigan 10-2 (7-2): Their defense is enough to get them past Notre Dame early and Jim Harbaugh finally beats Ohio State.
  • Ohio State 10-2 (7-2): Seems like a shocker, but Ohio State will struggle at times on offense, (struggle being a relative term) and they are weaker than usual at LB. Having two losses shows just how strong the East is this season.
  • Penn State 10-2 (7-2): Very tough to pick. I have them winning ten but could easily see them dropping another, but they will win at least nine barring a collapse. Defense will be a worry but the offense should win some shoot outs.
  • Maryland 6-6, (3-6): A tough team to gauge, inconsistent but they have play makers on both sides of the ball. The east is just too tough, however. I picked 'em over Texas again just for *****.
  • Indiana 3-9, (1-8): They will turn the ball over and other teams will score at will compared to last season's defensive improvements.
  • Rutgers 4-8, (1-8): They could beat Indiana or Maryland for a fifth win, but won't be a factor.

West​
  • Wisconsin 11-1 (8-1): If their defense comes along, especially the secondary, they could go undefeated. If they lose more than 1 in the regular season it won't be because of their offense.
  • Iowa 8-4 (6-3): Their offense will be pretty good, the defense will come along later in the year. I could see them perhaps dropping 1 more in conference but not more.
  • Nebraska 7-5 (4-5): The two biggest games on the schedule are Northwestern and Iowa. Win both and Nebraska will end with 8 wins instead of 7, and it would mean they could be good enough for 9. There is a reason publications are playing it safe both ways and picking Nebraska to go 6-6; when you factor in last year's 4 wins despite better-than-4-win talent, a whole new staff but one that's an improvement and a top new staff in the nation, and the difficult schedule, it's just crazy. Nebraska is literally the toughest team to predict for in all of college football.
  • Minnesota 7-5 (4-5): They will be improved enough to win a few more games this season. As much as Fleck bugs us, he seems to motivate his players. Big pre-conference game against Fresno I have them winning but they could easily lose.
  • Purdue 4-8, (3-6): Huge opening week game against Northwestern, and I have Purdue winning. However, Purdue will struggle down the stretch. A tough schedule and defense was hit hard with graduation.
  • Northwestern 5-7, (3-6): A trendy pick with a lot of people, but I just don't see it. QB has injury problems and they never live up to the hype after big seasons. Of all the teams here, however, this is the one I could be most wrong about. They could win anywhere from 5-9.
  • Illinois 2-10, (0-9): Lovie Smith's final season.
B1G TITLE GAME
Wisconsin over Michigan State​
 
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huskerfan1414

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As a side note, the B1G will again be a strong conference highlighted by the East teams. While they didn't have a team in the playoffs, the conference was 7-1 in bowl games last season and the conference heavyweights return numerous starters. Michigan State returns 19, Michigan 14 (including 8 from defense and a 15th if you count the transfer QB), Penn State 8 on offense, Wisconsin 10! on offense, and Ohio State a respectable 12.

I predict the big 10 will have four teams playing major bowl games, including one in the playoffs.
 
Redscarlet

Redscarlet

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I think the Purdue game is just as important as the Northwestern and Iowa games.

I also think Purdue beats Northwestern to Kick off the season.
 
H

HUSKERFAN66

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Seems like a possibility. I think everything is a crap shoot from the middle to the top. Just how much Nebraska improves will determine a lot in the big.
 
H

huskerfan1414

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Pennsyhusker said:
Michigan State will not win the east. Yes, they have a lot of starters returning. But if you look at their schedule last year you will see the lucked out in a couple of games. They have not recruited at the level of Ohio State and Michigan or even PSU.
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Fair enough, but if I had a choice between recruiting 19 returning starters from a 10 win team or winning the recruiting battle in the Big 10, I'd chose the 19 returning starters from a 10 win team.
You could also say their loss to Northwestern was "unlucky" just as much as you can say they "lucked out".
However, you could be right. Mich State has had disappointing seasons before. Just one mans opinion regarding the difficult East division.
 
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DudznSudz

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Great prediction! I agree with all of it, but am skeptical that MSU is going to be #1 in the East. I think its much more likely to be OSU or Penn State. Then again, who knows?

I also agree that Nebraska has an insane schedule, tons of changes, a lot of talent, and all of that adds up to a "nobody knows" kind of season prediction.
 
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huskerfan1414

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DudznSudz said:
Great prediction! I agree with all of it, but am skeptical that MSU is going to be #1 in the East. I think its much more likely to be OSU or Penn State. Then again, who knows?

I also agree that Nebraska has an insane schedule, tons of changes, a lot of talent, and all of that adds up to a "nobody knows" kind of season prediction.
Click to expand...
I would say Michigan has more of a chance than PSU simply because of defense. You need it in the big ten and Michigan has it.
oSU is always a favorite so I agree there.
 
Redscarlet

Redscarlet

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huskerfan1414 said:
I would say Michigan has more of a chance than PSU simply because of defense. You need it in the big ten and Michigan has it.
oSU is always a favorite so I agree there.
Click to expand...

Penn St has the schedule advantage. They get Bucknuts,Sparty, Herky and Wisconsin at home.

Ya they have to play in Ann Arbor but Michigan plays Wisconsin and at MSU after a bye week they play Penn St next.
 
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Pennsyhusker_rivals246774

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I think Michigan is the team that OSU has to worry about. They will have the best defense in the B1G and great defense can keep you in any game. Then add in the addition of a very good transfer QB for their anemic offense and you might just see Michigan win the East. I know it is fashionable to mock Harbaugh for not matching his hype so far, but he is a good coach.
 
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Cornicator

Cornicator

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Pennsyhusker said:
Michigan State will not win the east. Yes, they have a lot of starters returning. But if you look at their schedule last year you will see the lucked out in a couple of games. They have not recruited at the level of Ohio State and Michigan or even PSU.
Click to expand...

They've never recruited to that level, and they have winning records vs. all of them over the last 5 years.
 
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RealTucoSalamanca

RealTucoSalamanca

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tone1017 said:
I don't get how people still don't understand this.
Click to expand...

They understand, they just don’t want to admit it’s true because that isn’t the Nebraska model. By saying it’s true that would be like saying the Nebraska model may not yield national titles in 2020’s.

I believe that model can yield 1980’s level of success. Just like Wisconsin and Michigan St and to a lesser degree Iowa.

Osborne was the same offensive mastermind his whole career but had the most success when he emphasized speedy defenders in the mid 90’s and copied What Florida St did.
 
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bshirt73

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Tuco Salamanca said:
They understand, they just don’t want to admit it’s true because that isn’t the Nebraska model. By saying it’s true that would be like saying the Nebraska model may not yield national titles in 2020’s.

I believe that model can yield 1980’s level of success. Just like Wisconsin and Michigan St and to a lesser degree Iowa.

Osborne was the same offensive mastermind his whole career but had the most success when he emphasized speedy defenders in the mid 90’s and copied What Florida St did.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and according to Lemming, TO didn't get his top 5 recruit rankings until AFTER he won a NC.
 
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Skerz4Life50

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bshirt73 said:
Yeah, and according to Lemming, TO didn't get his top 5 recruit rankings until AFTER he won a NC.
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There were no such things as ‘stars’ until around the year 2000. Before that they were simply class rankings. They were also made by individuals, and not incredibly large staffs/systems like rivals/247/ESPN have.

That means anything prior to 2000 (2002 is the first year Rivals introduce star rankings I believe) is completely irrelevant to any of the discussions revolving around recruiting stars. Also as has been stated numerous times, no one is saying it is impossible for a team to be good or even potentially in the future win a NC, the NC part just hasn’t happened in at least the last 10-15 years (since star ratings were introduced). I don’t understand why this is so hard to comprehend
 
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bshirt73

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Also, five of the last 10 NCs has been won by "one" HC (N. Saban). Also another at LSU a few years before that. Maybe coaching should be priority #1?
 
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Skerz4Life50

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bshirt73 said:
Also, five of the last 10 NCs has been won by "one" HC (N. Saban). Also another at LSU a few years before that. Maybe coaching should be priority #1?
Click to expand...
You keep changing the topic. I have seen no one who has said coaching isn’t priority #1, or who doesn’t believe HCSF is the best man to lead Nebraska. But if you are already sold on him being a great coach (which most if not all are), and your goal then is eventually a national title (repeat national title, not lots of wins, B1G championships, etc., but a national title) then the data since star rankings were introduced (2002 for Rivals) shows that NU needs to start getting about half of their recruits to be 4/5 stars. That does not mean consistent top 10 classes, but it does mean consistent top 15-20 with maybe an occasional top 10.

Btw, yes Nick Saban has that many titles. Now go look at his recruiting classes. He doesn’t help your point. He is a great coach with great recruiting. We have half of that formula currently, now we just need recruiting to get to a higher level, which we have time and spots available in this class to do.
 
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tone1017

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bshirt73 said:
Also, five of the last 10 NCs has been won by "one" HC (N. Saban). Also another at LSU a few years before that. Maybe coaching should be priority #1?
Click to expand...
Coaching matters a ton. But Gene Chizik won a national title. In the same division as Saban. Do you think he's a better coach or do you think he recruited a transcendent talent that overcame that gigantic coaching gap? Again we can keep trying to convince ourselves we'll be the exception or we can just accept the fact that we'll have to recruit at a top 10-15 level to win a title like every other team this century.
 
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bshirt73

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Skerz4Life50 said:
You keep changing the topic. I have seen no one who has said coaching isn’t priority #1, or who doesn’t believe HCSF is the best man to lead Nebraska. But if you are already sold on him being a great coach (which most if not all are), and your goal then is eventually a national title (repeat national title, not lots of wins, B1G championships, etc., but a national title) then the data since star rankings were introduced (2002 for Rivals) shows that NU needs to start getting about half of their recruits to be 4/5 stars. That does not mean consistent top 10 classes, but it does mean consistent top 15-20 with maybe an occasional top 10.

Btw, yes Nick Saban has that many titles. Now go look at his recruiting classes. He doesn’t help your point. He is a great coach with great recruiting. We have half of that formula currently, now we just need recruiting to get to a higher level, which we have time and spots available in this class to do.
Click to expand...

Well, the obvious point is that there's lots of programs that annually have terrific recruiting rankings but are country miles away from playing for a NC. Texas, TAM, Michigan, etc, etc.

To me, that just shows there is many huge variables involved in coaching & recruiting. It looks to me that HCSF doesn't think we MUST have to have 50% 4 & 5 star recruits to win big-time. Also, Alabama wasn't winning anything (at all) before a great HC showed up. Imo, I agree with SF.

So.....we'll see compadre'!

GBR!!
 
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SoFL Husker

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huskerfan1414 said:
East​
  • Michigan State 11-1 (8-1): Michigan State returns the most production of any team in college football. They are quietly hanging back in the shadows while everyone talks about Ohio State and Michigan, just as they prefer. Nineteen starters and the 2nd best QB in the league return.
  • Michigan 10-2 (7-2): Their defense is enough to get them past Notre Dame early and Jim Harbaugh finally beats Ohio State.
  • Ohio State 10-2 (7-2): Seems like a shocker, but Ohio State will struggle at times on offense, (struggle being a relative term) and they are weaker than usual at LB. Having two losses shows just how strong the East is this season.
  • Penn State 10-2 (7-2): Very tough to pick. I have them winning ten but could easily see them dropping another, but they will win at least nine barring a collapse. Defense will be a worry but the offense should win some shoot outs.
  • Maryland 6-6, (3-6): A tough team to gauge, inconsistent but they have play makers on both sides of the ball. The east is just too tough, however. I picked 'em over Texas again just for *****.
  • Indiana 3-9, (1-8): They will turn the ball over and other teams will score at will compared to last season's defensive improvements.
  • Rutgers 4-8, (1-8): They could beat Indiana or Maryland for a fifth win, but won't be a factor.
West​
  • Wisconsin 11-1 (8-1): If their defense comes along, especially the secondary, they could go undefeated. If they lose more than 1 in the regular season it won't be because of their offense.
  • Iowa 8-4 (6-3): Their offense will be pretty good, the defense will come along later in the year. I could see them perhaps dropping 1 more in conference but not more.
  • Nebraska 7-5 (4-5): The two biggest games on the schedule are Northwestern and Iowa. Win both and Nebraska will end with 8 wins instead of 7, and it would mean they could be good enough for 9. There is a reason publications are playing it safe both ways and picking Nebraska to go 6-6; when you factor in last year's 4 wins despite better-than-4-win talent, a whole new staff but one that's an improvement and a top new staff in the nation, and the difficult schedule, it's just crazy. Nebraska is literally the toughest team to predict for in all of college football.
  • Minnesota 7-5 (4-5): They will be improved enough to win a few more games this season. As much as Fleck bugs us, he seems to motivate his players. Big pre-conference game against Fresno I have them winning but they could easily lose.
  • Purdue 4-8, (3-6): Huge opening week game against Northwestern, and I have Purdue winning. However, Purdue will struggle down the stretch. A tough schedule and defense was hit hard with graduation.
  • Northwestern 5-7, (3-6): A trendy pick with a lot of people, but I just don't see it. QB has injury problems and they never live up to the hype after big seasons. Of all the teams here, however, this is the one I could be most wrong about. They could win anywhere from 5-9.
  • Illinois 2-10, (0-9): Lovie Smith's final season.
B1G TITLE GAME
Wisconsin over Michigan State​
Click to expand...

Wisky runs the table, along with tOSU (Wisky offense and Ohio State defense are absolutely filthy). 2 undefeated teams in the conference champ should be a doozy.
 
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TruHusker

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I guess this is one of those deals where people refuse to see what is right in front of their faces. I understand that to an extent but the evidence is a bit overwhelming, no matter how you want to package it. A few things:

1. The "star" ratings didn't come in until after TO left the business. And while it is likely that his teams MAY not have been rated that highly, he had so many other factors head and shoulders above everyone else in the country AND his mind for football will forever exceed that of many who will ever come. So was he the exception? No way to really know for sure.

2. Also in reference to coaches, giving them the title of "great" is a bit tilted. Would I consider TO great? Yes and he proved it in many ways including wins. Is Saban great? Not sure because all of the data is not in but if you go strictly off of wins/losses and NC's then he has a valid argument. So here is where I stand with Frost - he is a good coach but has not achieved the title of "great" yet. He is young and has a lot of years of trials and tribulations in front of him.

3. Everyone is pretty excited about the level of coaching from this new staff and I get that. They showed what they could do at UCF in two years. That's two years of data, hardly a long enough period to get labeled great. There are going to be growing pains for this staff and the staff is likely to change over time and it is unrealistic to think that right off the bat that every one is going to improve their positions and I am not comparing to last year - but to the standard of being a "great" staff. I know this will be interpreted as being negative on the staff but it is not. Proving it at one place and time and moving up to a higher challenge of B1G is quite another. I am looking for the best but some growing pains along the way.

So if I follow some of this - the data shows the correlation between the rankings of classes both in stars and overall nationally compared to their record on NC's. But some believe the model can be to start with lower rated players and build them up to meet that high level. So answer this - what makes anyone think that a 4 * kid won't increase as much in ability and knowledge with a competent and dedicated teaching staff. In other words - why is that only our staff is able to do that? I don't believe it.

I am excited to get this season going, told my wife I needed to get this remodeling done so I have nothing to keep me occupied on Saturdays so I can actually enjoy sitting down watching an entire game of Husker football - the last few years have not been that exciting to sit and watch unless you didn't mind being frustrated.

Fire away
 
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Skerz4Life50

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bshirt73 said:
Well, the obvious point is that there's lots of programs that annually have terrific recruiting rankings but are country miles away from playing for a NC. Texas, TAM, Michigan, etc, etc.

To me, that just shows there is many huge variables involved in coaching & recruiting. It looks to me that HCSF doesn't think we MUST have to have 50% 4 & 5 star recruits to win big-time. Also, Alabama wasn't winning anything (at all) before a great HC showed up. Imo, I agree with SF.

So.....we'll see compadre'!

GBR!!
Click to expand...
That’s right, there are lots of programs that do not do well with great recruiting. To which the obvious claim is that they do not have great coaching. Again, both are needed. And the assumption is that we have great coaching now. So the other half (and obviously yes this is simplifying things), is that we need to get better recruiting. NU hasn’t had great of both since TO. We did have pretty darn good recruiting under Callahan, but fairly poor coaching.

Also, of course SF isn’t going to say that is a requirement. He would be foolish to make a comment like that if it may not be possible to live up to it immediately and it tells your team they can’t compete for a NC until they get more talent (although he did kind of say that by claiming it would take a few years). He did, though, say that top 25 classes are needed. And while that will get him much closer, statistics say it won’t get him all the way there. **He could be the exception to the rule**, though, as again we are not saying it isn’t possible. BUT, if he can recruit that highly and he is as great at coaching as we think, we will be competing for NCs much sooner than not.
 
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bshirt73

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TruHusker said:
I guess this is one of those deals where people refuse to see what is right in front of their faces. I understand that to an extent but the evidence is a bit overwhelming, no matter how you want to package it. A few things:

1. The "star" ratings didn't come in until after TO left the business. And while it is likely that his teams MAY not have been rated that highly, he had so many other factors head and shoulders above everyone else in the country AND his mind for football will forever exceed that of many who will ever come. So was he the exception? No way to really know for sure.

2. Also in reference to coaches, giving them the title of "great" is a bit tilted. Would I consider TO great? Yes and he proved it in many ways including wins. Is Saban great? Not sure because all of the data is not in but if you go strictly off of wins/losses and NC's then he has a valid argument. So here is where I stand with Frost - he is a good coach but has not achieved the title of "great" yet. He is young and has a lot of years of trials and tribulations in front of him.

3. Everyone is pretty excited about the level of coaching from this new staff and I get that. They showed what they could do at UCF in two years. That's two years of data, hardly a long enough period to get labeled great. There are going to be growing pains for this staff and the staff is likely to change over time and it is unrealistic to think that right off the bat that every one is going to improve their positions and I am not comparing to last year - but to the standard of being a "great" staff. I know this will be interpreted as being negative on the staff but it is not. Proving it at one place and time and moving up to a higher challenge of B1G is quite another. I am looking for the best but some growing pains along the way.

So if I follow some of this - the data shows the correlation between the rankings of classes both in stars and overall nationally compared to their record on NC's. But some believe the model can be to start with lower rated players and build them up to meet that high level. So answer this - what makes anyone think that a 4 * kid won't increase as much in ability and knowledge with a competent and dedicated teaching staff. In other words - why is that only our staff is able to do that? I don't believe it.

I am excited to get this season going, told my wife I needed to get this remodeling done so I have nothing to keep me occupied on Saturdays so I can actually enjoy sitting down watching an entire game of Husker football - the last few years have not been that exciting to sit and watch unless you didn't mind being frustrated.

Fire away
Click to expand...

Good post! A reasonable one too.

Again, there's lots of programs that have the sensational recruiting but don't come anywhere close to a NC. A full 50% of the concrete evidence of having to have 50% 4 & 5 star recruiting is due to "one" HC. I think that's not forever written in stone. But hey, it's just my opinion. Nothing else.

Watching Husker football the last few years has been viciously damaging to my liver.
 
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bshirt73

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Skerz4Life50 said:
That’s right, there are lots of programs that do not do well with great recruiting. To which the obvious claim is that they do not have great coaching. Again, both are needed. And the assumption is that we have great coaching now. So the other half (and obviously yes this is simplifying things), is that we need to get better recruiting. NU hasn’t had great of both since TO. We did have pretty darn good recruiting under Callahan, but fairly poor coaching.

Also, of course SF isn’t going to say that is a requirement. He would be foolish to make a comment like that if it may not be possible to live up to it immediately and it tells your team they can’t compete for a NC until they get more talent (although he did kind of say that by claiming it would take a few years). He did, though, say that top 25 classes are needed. And while that will get him much closer, statistics say it won’t get him all the way there. **He could be the exception to the rule**, though, as again we are not saying it isn’t possible. BUT, if he can recruit that highly and he is as great at coaching as we think, we will be competing for NCs much sooner than not.
Click to expand...

A fine post sir. I appreciate your large view of possibilities. To be sure, as you say, both are needed.

I don't see getting top 20 or 25 classes as being any kind of problem. Probably top 15 within a year or two is possible. Maybe probable?

But with some success on the field in two or three years we could be looking at top10 recruiting and then anything is possible. Yes, we very well could be competing for NCs much sooner than not. With or without 50% 4 & 5 star recruits.

Saban is a sensational HC. Quite possibly SF is too.

GBR!!
 
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RealTucoSalamanca

RealTucoSalamanca

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huskerfan1414 said:
Someone should really start a thread on how much recruiting matters
Click to expand...

Blame the Cornicator post, that you happened to like, for changing the direction of the thread. And thank Bshirt73, because I wouldn’t have responded until he called me out.

I tried earlier to consolidate the recruiting threads. No luck.
 
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bshirt73

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Tuco Salamanca said:
Blame the Cornicator post, that you happened to like, for changing the direction of the thread. And thank Bshirt73, because I wouldn’t have responded until he called me out.

I tried earlier to consolidate the recruiting threads. No luck.
Click to expand...

Oh c'mon Tuco.....I wasn't seriously "calling you out". Just having a little fun. I sincerely apologize if I was too harsh.
 
H

huskerfan1414

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Tuco Salamanca said:
Blame the Cornicator post, that you happened to like, for changing the direction of the thread. And thank Bshirt73, because I wouldn’t have responded until he called me out.

I tried earlier to consolidate the recruiting threads. No luck.
Click to expand...
calm down, not everything is a personal attack or about you. And corns post was within the discussion.
anyway, your thoughts on the conference?
 
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