OT: 2020 Census state populations released

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RocketDawg

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Oct 21, 2011
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The 334M must include Puerto Rico. Otherwise it's 331M, so the two aren't that far off.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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As people move out from population centers, the republican/conservative majority will weaken. Currently, you have "hotspots" of democratic majority around the areas with the highest population density. As that density declines, it'd probably be safe to bet that the republican/conservative majority in the areas around those centers will become diluted. Current democratic led jurisdictions will retain their leadership and ideologies while historically conservative towns/cities will begin to experience a shift in voting tendency.
A potential way to combat this on the state level would be for an ingest of conservativism into the vacuum left by democratic voters around the population centers, which would even out the swing of the pendulum.
I don't think it is quite decades down the road, but I'd agree on it being a few years out.

But you'll probably see a lot of those people decamping become more conservative also, just like you see a lot of people become more in favor of big government after living in cities for a while. That won't offset the effects, but it will attenuate them.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
58,064
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It's not just the Feds in this case. MS Republicans want to keep that district overwhelmingly black too so their majorities in the other districts is that much greater. Bennie is as safe as safe can be.
 

greenbean.sixpack

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Oct 6, 2012
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GA black population is actually growing significantly faster than MS. GA went from 30.5% black in 2010 to 32.6% in 2019. MS only increased from 37.0% to 37.8%. Interestingly, MS was majority black from 1840 to 1940.

Found this on wikipedia, the 2020 AA % will come in about 38% so about 1% every decade. As the white population continues to decline, that may speed up a little.
Racial composition1990[SUP][78][/SUP]2000[SUP][79][/SUP]2010[SUP][80][/SUP]
White63.5%61.4%59.1%
Black35.6%36.3%37.0%
Asian0.5%0.7%0.9%
Native0.3%0.4%0.5%
Other race0.1%0.5%1.3%
Two or more races0.7%1.2%

<caption style="font-weight: bold;"> Mississippi Racial Breakdown of Population
hide​
</caption><thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
 

greenbean.sixpack

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Oct 6, 2012
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Democrats have had "significant influence" on statewide elections in Ms. in the past and would be today if they had not adopted their current far left agenda. I'm not trying to be argumentative, just my humble opinion.

Yes, but many of those where Southern Democrats who started shifting to the Republican Party in the 80s/90s. The current national party has no relation to the Southern Democrats of the 70s and earlier. I'm 55 and growing up many of the older white population hated Republicans and would never vote for one, those folks have long since died out.
 

Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,786
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But you'll probably see a lot of those people decamping become more conservative also, just like you see a lot of people become more in favor of big government after living in cities for a while. That won't offset the effects, but it will attenuate them.

This happens anyway. The longer people live, gain life experience, have families, and accumulate assets, the more likely they are to become more conservative in their ideologies. It's been that way since the days of Eisenhower.
 

SheltonChoked

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Feb 27, 2008
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Mississippi will be the first majority African American state, but that is still decades down the road. Considering that 5-10 percent of white Mississippians (possibly more) will vote democrat, how long before democrats have significant influence on statewide elections?

There were more African Americans in Mississippi than Whites from at least 1830-1930. Per census data.
 

SheltonChoked

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Feb 27, 2008
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This happens anyway. The longer people live, gain life experience, have families, and accumulate assets, the more likely they are to become more conservative in their ideologies. It's been that way since the days of Eisenhower.

Cool story. Too bad it is not true.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706889

Until the Gen X, millennials and Gen Z, your politics were those of your parents. Those 3 generations are far more liberal, and are moving left as they age.
 

DoggieDaddy13

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Dec 23, 2017
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Cool story. Too bad it is not true.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706889

Until the Gen X, millennials and Gen Z, your politics were those of your parents. Those 3 generations are far more liberal, and are moving left as they age.

Bite your tongue, you AOC-loving, Castro youth. Us old folks got conservative and crotchety and we liked it. You youngsters better jump in your luxury recliners in your $350,000 homes, turn on OAN and NewsMax and join our movement. But don't you dare try to move anything forward. Got it!
 

Russ Wheeler

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Aug 3, 2020
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As people move out from population centers, the republican/conservative majority will weaken. Currently, you have "hotspots" of democratic majority around the areas with the highest population density. As that density declines, it'd probably be safe to bet that the republican/conservative majority in the areas around those centers will become diluted. Current democratic led jurisdictions will retain their leadership and ideologies while historically conservative towns/cities will begin to experience a shift in voting tendency.
A potential way to combat this on the state level would be for an ingest of conservativism into the vacuum left by democratic voters around the population centers, which would even out the swing of the pendulum.
I don't think it is quite decades down the road, but I'd agree on it being a few years out.
I suggest getting used to the idea that going forward there are just going to be varying degrees of left. Things are never going back right, you just have to hope that some moderate liberals with sense get elected. Getting bitter doesn't change the truth. I honestly think it's meant to be anyway.....Trump was the last stand and then the universe sent COVID to take him out......don't bet against nature. Just rejoice in the fact that you're probably smarter than 80% of the population simply because you have common sense.

This is why passing laws that hurt the state (like the bathroom and gender stuff) is just idiotic, and totally derails all the other good things going on. What battle are we really fighting?
 
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DoggieDaddy13

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Dec 23, 2017
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Yeah, that ******** data (which actually states there is little movement and if there is any movement during a lifetime, lefties are more apt to move right as opposed to righties going left) is from a bunch of egg-headed elitist libs from the university of Chicago.

We watch Fox News, so we know all about Chicago.

Why must you irritate the elderly?
 

RocketDawg

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Oct 21, 2011
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Why it stopped is a good question. But was it really 90%? Even in Presidential elections now, the turnout is typically only about 60% among all races. Presumably black turnout is about the same as the general populace.
 

JMC987

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Jun 6, 2020
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I don't buy those numbers. MS is much closer to 50% black now. Poor "minorities" don't fill out the census.
 

JungRebel

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Aug 23, 2012
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What do you think the reason for that is? Cheaper land? That explains the movement to Water Valley and Taylor from Oxford. I assume there is a Statkville equivalent too. As far as jobs go, Starkville and Oxford have some unique advantages and disadvantages. Tourism industry is very good in both. Oxford has Winchester, some tech companies, a couple smaller but significant providers, the hospital, and the university. Everything else is retail and service industry. I assume Starkville is the same story. However, two or three more big job producers could really change the landscape.

Tupelo has a couple banks with 1B AUM, a **** ton of building material companies and contractors (Starkville and Oxford have these too), Cooper Tires, and what else am I missing? Tupelo's growth seems more organic but Oxford, Starkville, and the Memphis/Mississippi towns have more potential for big time growth in the short term, Starkville and Oxford for the tourism/university factors alone. If Covid didnt pop the CFB bubble then I dont know what will. Universities also bring basketball, baseball, graduation, conferences, orientation, etc. to town. Solid base for service industry in both. If the school systems are good I can see both towns attracting young families — IF the jobs are there. That's it really, if we can get the jobs both towns could grow exponentially.

There is the 'how much growth is too much?' question but I dont really know what to do with it. Mississippi needs cities and towns that are growing. We need attractive locations to stop the brain drain. I will give up my small town if it takes it growing into a city of 100k to help Mississippi. I assume most in Starkville would make that trade. Hattiesburg too.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
58,064
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113
The census doesn't miss many people. There's a lot more to it than just who fills out the form.
 

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
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Why it stopped is a good question. But was it really 90%? Even in Presidential elections now, the turnout is typically only about 60% among all races. Presumably black turnout is about the same as the general populace.
I have no clue of what the data said, but I have no problem believing they voted at more than 90% turnout. They voted like their way of life and possibly their life depended on it, which it presumably did.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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What do you think the reason for that is? Cheaper land? That explains the movement to Water Valley and Taylor from Oxford. I assume there is a Statkville equivalent too.

Most Mississippi "cities" don't really provide a compelling reason to be there for a lot of people. If you are talking about a city with under 50k people, and probably under a 100k, it really doesn't take much time to drive in from out of the city limits. And most Mississippi towns don't revolve around their downtown, so they don't have a particular place that everybody wants to be close to. And they are usually not particularly walkable, so once you're in your car, driving 15 minutes versus 7 minutes isn't a big deal to them. It's a big deal to us, and we have basically designed our life around being in the car as little as possible, but even then a lot of that is out of our control. Lots (most?) places in Mississippi aren't going to have locations in a good school district that are walking distance to a few restaurants and a park/playground and within a mile of a grocery store and gas station. Even then, we both have 7-10 mile and 15-20 minute commutes, and we are lucky to only have that.


As far as jobs go, Starkville and Oxford have some unique advantages and disadvantages. Tourism industry is very good in both. Oxford has Winchester, some tech companies, a couple smaller but significant providers, the hospital, and the university. Everything else is retail and service industry. I assume Starkville is the same story. However, two or three more big job producers could really change the landscape.

Tupelo has a couple banks with 1B AUM, a **** ton of building material companies and contractors (Starkville and Oxford have these too), Cooper Tires, and what else am I missing? Tupelo's growth seems more organic but Oxford, Starkville, and the Memphis/Mississippi towns have more potential for big time growth in the short term, Starkville and Oxford for the tourism/university factors alone. If Covid didnt pop the CFB bubble then I dont know what will. Universities also bring basketball, baseball, graduation, conferences, orientation, etc. to town. Solid base for service industry in both. If the school systems are good I can see both towns attracting young families — IF the jobs are there. That's it really, if we can get the jobs both towns could grow exponentially.

There is the 'how much growth is too much?' question but I dont really know what to do with it. Mississippi needs cities and towns that are growing. We need attractive locations to stop the brain drain. I will give up my small town if it takes it growing into a city of 100k to help Mississippi. I assume most in Starkville would make that trade. Hattiesburg too.

Oxford and Starkville are both basically driven by the retiree and student population and university employees. Oxford is a little more advanced at this point both because it does have some other industry and it seems to have grown more of a professional class living off the growth driven by the university employee and student/retiree population. I think Oxford also benefits by being a little stronger in the Delta communities, so they are capturing more people leaving the Delta than Starkville is, although that's probably a pretty minor effect.
 

codeDawg

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Nov 13, 2007
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Why it stopped is a good question. But was it really 90%? Even in Presidential elections now, the turnout is typically only about 60% among all races. Presumably black turnout is about the same as the general populace.

If you don't know why black voting participation dropped off quickly in 1877 no matter what the percentage actually was, read this.
 

Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,786
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Oxford and Starkville are both basically driven by the retiree and student population and university employees. Oxford is a little more advanced at this point both because it does have some other industry and it seems to have grown more of a professional class living off the growth driven by the university employee and student/retiree population. I think Oxford also benefits by being a little stronger in the Delta communities, so they are capturing more people leaving the Delta than Starkville is, although that's probably a pretty minor effect.

The biggest differences to me between Oxford and Starkville are region. Oxford's appeal is the town....always has been. We as state fans give them **** sometimes, but Oxford is a nice town. Starkville is charming in its own way, but Starkville is really one spoke of GTR, with Columbus and West Point. The GTR area has a lot more potential for industrial growth and development.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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The biggest differences to me between Oxford and Starkville are region. Oxford's appeal is the town....always has been. We as state fans give them **** sometimes, but Oxford is a nice town. Starkville is charming in its own way, but Starkville is really one spoke of GTR, with Columbus and West Point. The GTR area has a lot more potential for industrial growth and development.

It's about a third as nice as they think it is, but that's still pretty nice. But I don't think Starkville is hurt by being a spoke of GTR. Oxford benefits from having a clear town center that is adjacent to the University. You don't have to see the ****** parts of Oxford, and most of the ****** parts are gentrifying anyway. If Starkville had a town center, it'd be just as nice. The problem for Starkville is it's downtown is basically a straight line, and then the cotton district competes with downtown, and even hwy 12 does to a lesser extent. If Starkville had a clear center of gravity, you'd have seen people putting ridiculous money into redoing houses and doing small multifamily near it rather than building out nice neighborhoods on South Montgomery. You're starting to see that now, we're just a decade or two behind where we should be.
 

Russ Wheeler

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Aug 3, 2020
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Why it stopped is a good question. But was it really 90%? Even in Presidential elections now, the turnout is typically only about 60% among all races. Presumably black turnout is about the same as the general populace.
Seriously, how clueless are you?
 

JungRebel

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Aug 23, 2012
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This is an interesting point (center of gravity). Oxford (and I assume Starkville too) never designed its infrastructure around the possibility of a population boom. Oxford has about 28k full time residents but when you add 20k students and a few thousand people driving in to work every day (and they do, from Batesville to Holly Springs to Taylor to Water Valley to even Bruce), Oxford has up to 60k people driving on roads that can comfortably fit about half that. Then a big tourist weekend comes and the town is congested to no end, the only way to get around it is to know the back roads. This might seem like it is just a problem for said weekends but even the lunch rush traffic makes it difficult to go get something to eat on the other side of town and make it back to work in one hour sometimes.

Oxford is TRYING to create a borough system. The square is nice but it simply cannot grow any further. There just isnt any room. Currently we are trying to develop areas outside of the square where businesses, restaurants, residential areas, and grocery stores are available in your area without driving through town. Time will tell if this can work. One example is the hospital area has seen several new restaurants and businesses open along with a hotel. I work in this area and generally speaking have a nice set of options if I want to eat lunch out without having to go near Jackson or the square. Another example is the area containing the new high school. Several restaurants have been built there along with a ton of residential areas. There are hotels in this area too along with our conference center. (Other 'boroughs' are Jackson Ave/Ole Miss and the area around the airport.) Dont know how sustainable it will be but this is the route we are trying to take to grow a town with infrastructure that was never meant to hold even half what it does. Starkville may, if it does something like this, be even more successful since it does not have a center of gravity like the square. Oxford is essentially trying to decentralize while keeping its center strong. Starkville is decentralized and AFAIK just needs to keep developing its various projects.

But the biggest question is what sort of towns we want to be. I am fine with retirement city/university living but I couldnt live here without my wife and I having good jobs, and our jobs have no DIRECT business with tourism or the university. If both towns continue to annex further out and attract some real industry, both could turn into fine cities. Is that good for them? Yes and no. Again I would trade my small town for a city that kept young people in Mississippi.
 
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Drebin

Heisman
Aug 22, 2012
21,786
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It's about a third as nice as they think it is, but that's still pretty nice. But I don't think Starkville is hurt by being a spoke of GTR. Oxford benefits from having a clear town center that is adjacent to the University. You don't have to see the ****** parts of Oxford, and most of the ****** parts are gentrifying anyway. If Starkville had a town center, it'd be just as nice. The problem for Starkville is it's downtown is basically a straight line, and then the cotton district competes with downtown, and even hwy 12 does to a lesser extent. If Starkville had a clear center of gravity, you'd have seen people putting ridiculous money into redoing houses and doing small multifamily near it rather than building out nice neighborhoods on South Montgomery. You're starting to see that now, we're just a decade or two behind where we should be.

I agree with everything you said, and my comments were not meant to suggest that being part of GTR hurts Starkville. On the contrary, I think the region is better suited for growth and development than the area around Oxford.
 

Russ Wheeler

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Aug 3, 2020
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I agree with everything you said, and my comments were not meant to suggest that being part of GTR hurts Starkville. On the contrary, I think the region is better suited for growth and development than the area around Oxford.
GTR is better suited to stand on its own, therefore will eventually out-do Oxford with organic growth. Oxford, on the other hand, will benefit from the Memphis Metro.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Why it stopped is a good question.

Is that a good question? Or should it be incredibly well known by all adults who grew up in this country?

Mississippi adopted a new constitution in 1890 and voter registration required poll taxes plus a literacy test, which was both subjectively applied and graded.

Voter suppression was happening before 1890 and obviously continued after 1890 since it was literally in the constitution. It continued for the next 70 years.
...and it continues even today(to a lesser degree) with all the thinly veiled justifications from conservative state legislatures who are defending their actions as 'preserving legitimate voting'.
 

Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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Is that a good question? Or should it be incredibly well known by all adults who grew up in this country?

Mississippi adopted a new constitution in 1890 and voter registration required poll taxes plus a literacy test, which was both subjectively applied and graded.

Voter suppression was happening before 1890 and obviously continued after 1890 since it was literally in the constitution. It continued for the next 70 years.
...and it continues even today(to a lesser degree) with all the thinly veiled justifications from conservative state legislatures who are defending their actions as 'preserving legitimate voting'.

This was a decent post until your last sentence. Then you **** the bed. aGAIN.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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This was a decent post until your last sentence. Then you **** the bed. aGAIN.

Yeah, I figured that wouldnt be loved by some on here. Truth hurts, cant escape reality, yada yada.

- 2020 has record turnout.
- 2020 vote is regarded as incredibly secure and legitimate by actual vote watch groups and government agencies.
- One side claims fraud and offers up no proof.
- That same side continues to argue easily debunked conspiracies.
- That same side proposes bills in state legislatures across the country which reduce access to voting and make it less convenient to vote.


It is not difficult to see the cause and effect here. Record turnout and our guy lost = tweak voting laws where we can to reduce convenience and access for the side the won.
That certainly isnt voter encouragement, so then its...
 

Russ Wheeler

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Yeah, I figured that wouldnt be loved by some on here. Truth hurts, cant escape reality, yada yada.

- 2020 has record turnout.
- 2020 vote is regarded as incredibly secure and legitimate by actual vote watch groups and government agencies.
- One side claims fraud and offers up no proof.
- That same side continues to argue easily debunked conspiracies.
- That same side proposes bills in state legislatures across the country which reduce access to voting and make it less convenient to vote.


It is not difficult to see the cause and effect here. Record turnout and our guy lost = tweak voting laws where we can to reduce convenience and access for the side the won.
That certainly isnt voter encouragement, so then its...
Requiring proof that you are a person and a citizen is hardly voter discouragement. So stop saying the truth hurts, when it's really that your opinion just sucks.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Requiring proof that you are a person and a citizen is hardly voter discouragement. So stop saying the truth hurts, when it's really that your opinion just sucks.

There is more to the widespread voting law changes than just the issue you mentioned.
I accept an ID being needed to vote, so that isnt what I was posting about. But since you mention it, a bigly % of some groups dont have photo ID.
https://ballotpedia.org/Arguments_for_and_against_voter_identification_laws

Again though, I wasnt discussing only or specifically the ID issue.
 
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