OT: Christmas and Covid

[Trojanbulldog19]

Yeah it is one year, but no one knows if they have tomorrow or not to start with. We had the discussion with my parents and we decided that them not seeing us for a year was not a good idea because my mother isn’t in the best of health to start with and every time spent is important In the years she has left. I get why some of these shut ins and those that are higher risk family situations are I a predicament. Never know when your day might be your last so cherish your loved when’s while you can because next year might not be there anyway regardless of Covid.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

We were supposed to go to my in-laws for a largeish (15-20 people) gathering. But my wife made the decision to cancel after she saw pics of her uncle and his wife maskless at a giant motorcycle rally over the weekend. Because of that and a couple of discussions she's had with family members, she realized no one in her family was actually taking it seriously and said she'd rather just take the year off than run the risk of catching and/or spreading it.

We did cancel going to my in laws for “thanksgiving” because they were inviting friends of theirs from all over the country.

 

[Pookieray]

Obviously everyone is different as to what they will do for Christmas. I would never tell anyone to not visit aging family members due to concerns about covid especially since my wife and I just went through covid and spread it to my parents and a seriously compromised younger sibling who is wheelchair bound and very prone to respiratory illnesses.

Father (82) tested + absolutely no symptoms
Mother (79) tested + had fever, body aches
Brother (50) tested + had fever, breathing difficulties, body aches. Dr issued medicine due to his being home bound and wheel chair bound.
Wife (51) tested + had body aches and low energy for about 3-4 days
Me (53) didn't need to test as I lost smell and taste and had a 102 fever for about 5 hrs and broke never to return, felt ok but not great for about 2 days afterwards.

Mother and brother recovered in 5 days. All my family was concerned for my brother as we felt he wouldn't be able to survive covid but to use his words "I kicked covids butt".

Wife (nurse) had it but didn't know she had it till she had spread it to me and to my mother, that we visited in the hospital due to breaking her knee and leg after falling from a ladder. She gave to my father and little brother after she got home.

I say all this to just say, there is no way off knowing how it will affect anyone. Neither of my parents are what I would call really healthy, both have high blood pressure, I also wouldn't call them sickly either. My brother was a different story, but like I said he handled it well.

I know it has hit many families hard with extreme illness and death and everyone is different. But you have to weigh in other things like how often you see your family in person and if you have children how often they see the grandkids etc.

 

[BlueRidgeMtns]

Me and the family are spending time at the parents, but doing our best to not be on top of each other. Most of us are in healthcare and are being tested pretty regularly.

 

[johnson86-1]

I think that’s the important part that so many don’t really discuss. It’s one year. This isn’t the norm.

One year is a long time. If a two year old goes a year without seeing their grandparents, they aren't going to know who they are when they see them again.

For the most part, the people at high risk of dying from covid are also at higher risk of dying in the next year, so while the risk is much higher, they also have to presumably give up a much greater portion of their remaining life to be cautious. It's just a different calculation for everybody. If you are a 50 year old diabetic, I'd probably be really cautious. You presumably have a lot of time your risking. If you're an eighty year old cancer patient, I'm not sure I'd skip holidays with the family in the hopes that you'll get more.

 

[woozman]

We will be doing it alone this year the same as Thanksgiving. We usually split visits for both holidays between my mom and my wife’s parents.

It’s their call, though, so we’ll respect it...

 

[dorndawg]

Being all alone on Christmas.**
More people are dying from things not named covid than are dying from covid. Depression causes all sorts of problems. Go see grandma.

You are getting your information from a faulty source.

 

[Zebrahater]

There is no right or wrong answer here. That's the great part of living in America (as of now) we're allowed to make these decisions. My mother is 75 & could careless about being "isolated". She enjoys being alone, some are completely opposite. It's a case by case situation. Everyone knows the consequences of taking a chance with elderly love ones during the Holidays. I had a older cousin (65) die of Covid the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. After she passed away, mom decided last minute she wanted to have Thanksgiving because none know when are last day is.

 

[Miketice]

An older loved one, this could be your last Christmas with them. Do you want to miss that?

But what if he kills her? Sounds funny cause its true

 

[Miketice]

Not changing a thing. Going to shoot whisky and snort cocaine every 10 minutes to prevent anything.

This is funny. I'm smiling and typing funny

 

[ezsoil]

Since most in my family are essential workers , almost everyone has had it so we are pretty much gathering as usual. We do have several high risk relatives who will be calling in via zoom but for the most part we are back to normal...

 

[fishwater99]

Being all alone on Christmas.**
More people are dying from things not named covid than are dying from covid. Depression causes all sorts of problems. Go see grandma.

You can see Grandma and still be safe and socialize and social distance. Wear a mask and wash your damn hands.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

Being all alone on Christmas.**
Mo/re people are dying from things not named covid than are dying from covid. Depression causes all sorts of problems. Go see grandma.

Deadliest days in American history:
1. Galveston Hurricane - 8,000
2. Antietam - 3,600
3. 9/11 - 2,977
4. Last Thursday - 2,861
5. Last Wednesday - 2,762
6. Last Tuesday - 2,461
7. Last Friday - 2,439
8. Pearl Harbor - 2,403

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Delete - I fell for the propaganda

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I am very likely visiting family but I sure don't like the numbers released by the state department of health today: 3,658 new cases. Link: Here.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

I think that’s the important part that so many don’t really discuss. It’s one year. This isn’t the norm.

Folks said it was "two weeks" in March. Yet here we are.

 

[johnson86-1]

Deadliest days in American history:
1. Galveston Hurricane - 8,000
2. Antietam - 3,600
3. 9/11 - 2,977
4. Last Thursday - 2,861
5. Last Wednesday - 2,762
6. Last Tuesday - 2,461
7. Last Friday - 2,439
8. Pearl Harbor - 2,403

That Gavelston Hurricane number is crazy. We average somewhere around 7500 deaths per day now in the US (or I guess that was the number pre-covid; presumably that's ticked up since COVID started), so to have one storm in 1900 kill that many is crazy.

 

[patdog]

We're planning to have a mostly virtual Christmas this year. Although sister's family is suffering with the virus pretty bad right now, so if they're recovered, they may have immunity and be safe to visit the parents. Planning to hopefully have a big Christmas type family get together late spring or early summer.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The two weeks were referring to it getting worse, not better.

 

[johnson86-1]

This is a little dated at this point, but it has some interesting graphs:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w#F2_down

Interesting that 25-44 year olds had a couple of months of 10% higher deaths than the predicted average for a few months before COVID got in full swing. Also interesting that under 25 year olds look to be on pace for a below average year of deaths, although not by much. I guess not being very susceptible to covid plus less driving offsets any increase due to being out of school and in bad home life plus any ill effects from depressed/financially stressed parents, plus just maybe being on good side of random fluctuations.

Wish they graphed number of excess deaths by age group rather than percentage.

 

[johnson86-1]

The two weeks were referring to it getting worse, not better.

Some people like L4 kept saying we were two weeks away from disaster, but it originally was "two weeks to flatten the curve". We didn't start off with the idiocy of thinking we could stop a pandemic by just stopping life. Messaging originally pretty much explicitly stated that we wouldn't really reduce the number of covid deaths, we'd just reduce the deaths from the healthcare system being overloaded. We moved to the indefinite lockdown insanity after selling the public on flattening the curve.

THis probably won't be much more than a footnote for the public in general, but I assume for people that study pandemic responses, trying to get people to lock down during summer months when we had excess capacity at our hospitals rather than saving those measures for cold and flu season is going to be one of the big "what not to do lessons" from this pandemic.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

The two weeks were referring to it getting worse, not better.

Nope. "Two weeks to flatten the curve" was the original rally cry.

 

[mstateglfr]

One year is a long time. If a two year old goes a year without seeing their grandparents, they aren't going to know who they are when they see them again.

For the most part, the people at high risk of dying from covid are also at higher risk of dying in the next year, so while the risk is much higher, they also have to presumably give up a much greater portion of their remaining life to be cautious. It's just a different calculation for everybody. If you are a 50 year old diabetic, I'd probably be really cautious. You presumably have a lot of time your risking. If you're an eighty year old cancer patient, I'm not sure I'd skip holidays with the family in the hopes that you'll get more.

Your second paragraph makes sense from a cost benefit analysis perspective.

The first comment though is...meh. Sure, a 2 year old may not remember grandparents if they go a year without seeing them. But thats the reality for a lot of grandparents pre-covid who live multiple states away- they see grandkids once a year or so, and somehow relationships survive.
New fangled technology that allows kids and grandparents to talk with one another, do crafts together, bake together, etc is pretty wild. They can see each other and not just maintain, but strengthen relationships. Pretty neat-O.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Some people like L4 kept saying we were two weeks away from disaster, but it originally was "two weeks to flatten the curve". We didn't start off with the idiocy of thinking we could stop a pandemic by just stopping life. Messaging originally pretty much explicitly stated that we wouldn't really reduce the number of covid deaths, we'd just reduce the deaths from the healthcare system being overloaded. We moved to the indefinite lockdown insanity after selling the public on flattening the curve.

THis probably won't be much more than a footnote for the public in general, but I assume for people that study pandemic responses, trying to get people to lock down during summer months when we had excess capacity at our hospitals rather than saving those measures for cold and flu season is going to be one of the big "what not to do lessons" from this pandemic.

Actually flattening the curve WAS and IS to try try and reduce the number of deaths. Overwhelmed hospitals can not provide as good a quality of care, and that matters for a lot more than just COVID. With the numbers we are seeing it is a given the hospital system in Mississippi is going to be overwhelmed in at least spots, if not as a whole. We will be on own too. We won't be sending many out of state. If we hadn't done what we did this summer it would have already been this way for a while.

 

[Sapsdawg]

This is incorrect. On average almost 8,000 people die every day in the US from all causes.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Your second paragraph makes sense from a cost benefit analysis perspective.

The first comment though is...meh. Sure, a 2 year old may not remember grandparents if they go a year without seeing them. But thats the reality for a lot of grandparents pre-covid who live multiple states away- they see grandkids once a year or so, and somehow relationships survive.
New fangled technology that allows kids and grandparents to talk with one another, do crafts together, bake together, etc is pretty wild. They can see each other and not just maintain, but strengthen relationships. Pretty neat-O.

You can't strengthen relationships virtually. Reality is not your strong suit. You are, however, top of the line at being a smarmy, sanctimonious troll.

 

[johnson86-1]

Actually flattening the curve WAS and IS to try try and reduce the number of deaths. Overwhelmed hospitals can not provide as good a quality of care, and that matters for a lot more than just COVID.

Flattening the curve was not sold as reducing the number of covid deaths. AGain, they pretty much said the area under the curve would be the same. It was sold as reducing deaths due to the healthcare system being overloaded.

With the numbers we are seeing it is a given the hospital system in Mississippi is going to be overwhelmed in at least spots, if not as a whole. We will be on own too. We won't be sending many out of state. If we hadn't done what we did this summer it would have already been this way for a while.

There was never a chance the healthcare system wasn't going to be overwhelmed in cold and flu season during a pandemic. Hospitals generally will reach capacity or 95% of it during a normal cold and flu season. Which again, is why it was stupid to ask people to make sacrifices when our hospitals had excess capacity. We should be locking down for two weeks right now, but we can't because we already pretty much maxed out our ability to get the public to comply with that back in the spring and early summer while our hospitals were sitting empty and hemorrhaging money.

 

[af102]

Same thing we did at Thanksgiving- anyone staying in the house together is expected to isolate for a week before showing up, and those of us that live in places where testing is easily accessible/free should get tested 3-4 days before the trip. We've done it a few times now since the beginning of the summer and it works out fine.

 

[mstateglfr]

Deadliest days in American history:
1. Galveston Hurricane - 8,000
2. Antietam - 3,600
3. 9/11 - 2,977
4. Last Thursday - 2,861
5. Last Wednesday - 2,762
6. Last Tuesday - 2,461
7. Last Friday - 2,439
8. Pearl Harbor - 2,403

This seems wrong.

Are you referring to the deadliest days where a lot of deaths are attributed to a single event? If so, I guess the numbers are accurrate.
But otherwise, I could see a random Tuesday in the 80s having more deaths than this list.

 

[msstate7]

Even bigger. All of you are invited. I've rented a cabin that can hold 15 comfortably, but I plan on having 75-100. There will be karaoke and kegs. I'll set up food buffet style. If you have a temp over 101.9, please stay home**

 

[Bill Shankly]

This is incorrect. On average almost 8,000 people die every day in the US from all causes.

I think it was talking about deaths from a single cause on one day.

 

[ckDOG]

Would be nice if we had accessible/affordable rapid testing.

These discussions wouldn't even be necessary.

 

[msstate7]

These discussions wouldn't even be necessary.

Aren't those tests wildly inaccurate or have they gotten better?

 

[Go Budaw]

Some people like L4 kept saying we were two weeks away from disaster, but it originally was "two weeks to flatten the curve". We didn't start off with the idiocy of thinking we could stop a pandemic by just stopping life. Messaging originally pretty much explicitly stated that we wouldn't really reduce the number of covid deaths, we'd just reduce the deaths from the healthcare system being overloaded. We moved to the indefinite lockdown insanity after selling the public on flattening the curve.

THis probably won't be much more than a footnote for the public in general, but I assume for people that study pandemic responses, trying to get people to lock down during summer months when we had excess capacity at our hospitals rather than saving those measures for cold and flu season is going to be one of the big "what not to do lessons" from this pandemic.

Who was locked down in the summer months? Yeah, I get that from a microeconomic standpoint you you couldn’t go to concerts or sporting events and things like that, but the other 99.7% of the economy was open season from about mid-May or so, and even more so from late June through late September.

 

[msstate7]

Who was locked down in the summer months? Yeah, I get that from a microeconomic standpoint you you couldn’t go to concerts or sporting events and things like that, but the other 99.7% of the economy was open season from about mid-May or so, and even more so from late June through late September.

Like who in Mississippi or who in the US?

 

[mstateglfr]

Aren't those tests wildly inaccurate or have they gotten better?

Me and my family took the rapid tests for free at a local Walgreens. We did it a couple times and the only downside is you need to schedule 3 days out to take the test, so it isnt possible to just take one without planning.

It was free and accurate. If there is a presence of the virus, it detects it and you are positive. If there is no presence, then you are negative.
Statistically, there are some false negatives due to the viral load not being high enough to be detected. But there are no false positives because if it detects the virus, then you have the virus.

 

[ckDOG]

Aren't those tests wildly inaccurate or have they gotten better?

I think the cheap rapid ones aren't the most reliable. I know I've read of some tests that Israel was pushing earlier in the year that that were cheap and you could take by yourself at home. Idea being if they cost a buck or two and are 80% accurate, then take two tests, if you are negative twice, you probably are fine to be near folks (0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04 false negative chance and acceptable). Nobody would ever want to rely on that for official medical diagnosis, but for managing a pandemic, that's exactly what you want. You've got a cheap indicator that says lay low and you go to the doc and confirm it rather than potentially expose people and allow the virus to continue.

That general concept is what has irritated me about this entire experience. Academia is too geared towards achieving perfection. While you want that for the research of disease and appropriate treatment, we are talking managing the masses and beating down a virus at a macro level where time is of the essence. Don't let perfection be the enemy of good enough. Get people some reasonably effective testing that cost scalable and can be done at home. Then it takes the asymptomatic carrier challenge to this virus down a few notches.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

How far up your ***

Deadliest days in American history:
1. Galveston Hurricane - 8,000
2. Antietam - 3,600
3. 9/11 - 2,977
4. Last Thursday - 2,861
5. Last Wednesday - 2,762
6. Last Tuesday - 2,461
7. Last Friday - 2,439
8. Pearl Harbor - 2,403

Did you reach to pull those stats? About 8000 people die per day precovid. Thanks for pointing out more people die from non-covid causes than covid. You weigh your own risks. If you don’t have anywhere to go on Christmas, you can come sit by me. One more at the party won’t make a difference.

 

[johnson86-1]

Who was locked down in the summer months? Yeah, I get that from a microeconomic standpoint you you couldn’t go to concerts or sporting events and things like that, but the other 99.7% of the economy was open season from about mid-May or so, and even more so from late June through late September.

At different times, we had sports cancelled, child care/camps cancelled, people working from home, limited dine-in options, people furloughed, etc. Had that not come after shutting down in the spring, it might not have exhausted the public's willingness to do an effective shutdown in cold and flu season. But coming after the spring, it made sure people stayed fatigued as far as covid responses. And while it wasn't as big of an issue in Mississippi, in most places with stringent restrictions, the hypocrisy of government officials and others lecturing people to comply with restrictions they didn't feel applied to them probably further ensured that there wouldn't be any goodwill left to have a shutdown in cold and flu season.

 

[johnson86-1]

I think it was talking about deaths from a single cause on one day.

It is but it's pretty obviously incomplete also now that I look at it. The Spanish flu killed around 675k in the US. If you spread that out over 365 days, that'd be 1849 deaths per day. Even with two separate waves, most of those deaths would have been concentrated over a combined period of less than a year, so there would probably be a good number of days from the SPanish flu exceeding 2400 deaths per day.

ETA: Looking around, it looks like the US lost 195,000 people to the SPanish flu in Oct. of 1918, so that works out to over 6k deaths a day, so yea, it was way further off than I realized. The only one that would be in the top thirty is the Galveston Hurricane.