Case trends are a pretty good predictor of where those two will head. We have a decent idea of the %s now. What deaths and hospitalizations give you is good picture of where the epidemic was a few weeks ago.
And the case trends are looking excellent across the southern vector that's been hit hard for the last 8ish weeks. Happy to post them all again slightly differently.
7 day new case count averages from August 2, then August 9. One Week. From highest per capita overall case load.
Louisiana - 1776, 1419. Down 20.1%
Arizona - 2350, 1208. Down 48.6%
Florida - 9040, 6525. Down 27.8%
Mississippi - 1178, 946. Down 19.7%
Alabama - 1735, 1413. Down 18.6%
Georgia - 3603, 3346. Down 7.1%
South Carolina - 1512, 1235. Down 18.3%
Tennessee - 2241, 1869. Down 16.6%
Texas - 8117, 7976. Down 1.8%
Arkansas - 735, 796. Up 8.3%
Missouri - 1229, 1019. Down 17.1%
Kentucky - 586, 543. Down 7.3%
In conclusion:
- Case counts are down very significantly in 7 SEC states.
- They are down notably in two more.
- Arizona might very well have hit the wall of herd immunity. No way these next 7 trend as positively as the last 7 or the virus will be totally gone there.
- They are flat in Texas. By the dates I chose it shows them up a tick in Arkansas, but the reality is that it's been plateaued there for about 10 days, the dates just fell out poorly. Both of those states are behind the majority in per capita cases overall though. Meaning they are probably a week or two away from being where the rest of us are.
7 more days that go as well as these last 7 days across the southeast and things will be looking so positive that the entire narrative will have to change. And I'm sure it will....